TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

[MixMasterLar]

Oh sorry was distracted and sat on my post, now I'm majorly ninja'd

But yeeeeaaaahhhh I think we can all agree that blues holding on to powers too long is bad for town. I don't even know if I wanna wait for a flip tbh

[mellon_collie]

Originally Posted by Arapocalypse

I appreciate your exclamation marks hype as well!!!!!



(Light townread here in general, also I'll be out for a bunch of today; will be back a few hours before EoD though!!!!)

Also what is your avatar? It reminds me of Mameshiba wearing a sheet lol

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by Arapocalypse

Also congrats on getting engaged!!!!!!!

Thankya Thankya. Tentatively set for October 3rd, 2026

Any FFR peeps that show up get a plate. We still gotta decide on a venue, though

[mellon_collie]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

October 3rd

nice

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by mellon_collie

nice

Her reason is that it's the anniversary on when we officially became an item

But yes, I'm also extremely pleased how it turned it lmao

We still need to announce it officially but I wanted to at least nail down the venue first

[MixMasterLar]

Game Related: had a literal shower thought (as in, was thinking in the shower) that I can go into next phase but I absolutely see the other side of the coin that Roundbox was talking about in regards to voting

Yeah, no excuses for not having a vote by EOD. none

[MixMasterLar]

I literally made Lanna drive on this trip so I could respond to you guys here and no one has posted since me. Really cool of you to do

[MixMasterLar]

Looking back over page 1, if Leetic is wolf then he's one hell of a confident wolf. This doesn't read like a wolf trying to just talk and appear towny, this reads like a town who's had too much time to think about the setup and fully believes they know The Strat

I don't think I ever vote Leetic here. Some strong players could pull this play off and Leetic certainly qualifies as a strong player, but i just don't think I'm seeing that here

[MixMasterLar]

That was a much quicker reread then I figured lol

To me, if there is an active wolf here I would bet it's Ara because it definitely feels like they engaged in the mechanics talk only because it would have been weird not to, and when it became safe to not address they dropped it pretty quickly.

It's reactive, is essentially my complaint

Even the reads list later on comes after we shifted to posting soft reads

Granted we have yet to really hear from Bug or HnH and to be fair, historically speaking on FFR the inactives are the wolves so you know always kinda got that in the back of my mind

But yeah let's get spicey and lay down that vote see where that gets us

Originally Posted by leetic

I find this post really lame. It's up to you to engage people, you can't just expect people to suddenly have the content you feel okay with.

Originally Posted by leetic

I think having a solid mechanical plan would really increase town's chance of winning here, but of course reads are super important here too. Do you have any thoughts on the setup at all?

Originally Posted by bugkid666

i intend on fulling reading this thread tomorrow around noon server time but i'm here don't fret, i just go to bed early

[MixMasterLar]

Oh was also gonna add that those two Leetic post are so very very good and was gonna give Bug some shit but got distracted and ultimately forgot I had them down there.

Any way those are two very good post from Leetic and Big, come on it's past 12 now where's the content?!

[bugkid666]

Originally Posted by leetic

Doing the calculations, assuming no interference from the Soul Stealer the Freikugel has an 81.25% chance of getting two shots off uninterupted. If the first roll is a one or a two, it's completely safe in fact. Since town KP is so high it's probably good to aggressively nail down the PoE quickly.

can you explain further what you mean by process of elimination? do you mean outcomes or roles?

Originally Posted by leetic

The thing we may want to discuss is whether it would be beneficial for the Freikugel to announce their result. On the one hand, a one or a two would give us much more freedom in how we can use the Soul Stealer. On the other, town has no protective roles so it would mean that wolves get a free shot on them, but on the other other hand Freikugel isn't going to get a third shot and the chances of the game even getting to that point are not super high to begin with. The main advantage of keeping them hidden would be hopefully having them alive at -yLo to hopefully make it easier

i like the idea of proposing all of the potential scenarios regarding Freikugel and generally agree that talking mechanics doesn't give much regarding alignment. it's how people talk about mechanics that gives alignment clues. maybe that's a dumb and redundant thought but i figured i'd make it anyways.

Originally Posted by roundbox

1. as if I wouldn't

2. this seems like you're posting for the sake of posting. none of your reads really advance, so it just feels like you're spinning into the mud.

this is very typical rb/raeko lmao
raeko: i am saying something for the sake of it
rb: sounds like youre just saying something for the sake of it......
seems t/t

Originally Posted by roundbox

On whether or not the Freikugel should call their shot: I'm gonna do some thinking about that

Points in favor of calling their shot
-It's a claim which helps town with raw PoE
-It directly helps the Soul Stealer by providing them information relevant to the weakness of their role
-You'll still kill someone N2 as wolves murder you to death

Points against
-Getting a N3 shot off would be great assuming we have enough players alive at that point, but is that realistic?
-Wolves guarantee a hit on our KP

Let me do some quick math:

D0: 9: 7 town, 2 wolves. If Vengeful pops off, we're down to 7: 6 town 1 wolf is BEST case, 5 town 2 wolf is WORST case.
BEST CASE N1 with Vengeful gone: We win game as Freikugel shoots the last wolf to death.
BETTER CASE N1 with Vengeful gone: Freikugel kills town instead. We're down to 5: 4 town, 1 wolf.
WORST CASE N1 with Vengeful gone: We're down to 5: 3 town, 2 wolf.
D1: Ends in wolf victory or down to 3-1.
N2: Would lead to potential victory if Freikugel is alive and shoots correctly. If Freikugel hits town, game is over.

Assuming Vengeful stays alive until the end and both KPs pop each night:
D0: 7-1 best case, 6-2 worst case.
N1: Victory best case, 5-1 better case, 4-2 worst case.
D1: Victory best case, 4-1 better case, 3-2 worst case.
N2: Victory best case, 1-2 worst case (LOSE), 2-1 case which makes D2 as final voting.

It seems pretty unlikely we'll hit a third night phase unless wolf JOAT pulls off serious plays.

You know what? After running through these scenarios, I think leetic has a decent point. It seems hard to get that far in the game, and it just might benefit us if we're in a worst case D2 with 3 town dead.
That being said, we'll do the math tomorrow when we have the actual flips.

seems general consensus is that Freikugel should announce role after D1? am i reading this entirely wrong?

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

Looking back over page 1, if Leetic is wolf then he's one hell of a confident wolf. This doesn't read like a wolf trying to just talk and appear towny, this reads like a town who's had too much time to think about the setup and fully believes they know The Strat

I don't think I ever vote Leetic here. Some strong players could pull this play off and Leetic certainly qualifies as a strong player, but i just don't think I'm seeing that here

i agree on this assessment, i dont think a wolf comes straight out the gate with game mechanics and PR hunting publicly lol


sorry for my absence, i don't have a fun excuse i just forgor but i'm here now until EoD!

[bugkid666]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

That was a much quicker reread then I figured lol

To me, if there is an active wolf here I would bet it's Ara because it definitely feels like they engaged in the mechanics talk only because it would have been weird not to, and when it became safe to not address they dropped it pretty quickly.

It's reactive, is essentially my complaint

Even the reads list later on comes after we shifted to posting soft reads

Granted we have yet to really hear from Bug or HnH and to be fair, historically speaking on FFR the inactives are the wolves so you know always kinda got that in the back of my mind

But yeah let's get spicey and lay down that vote see where that gets us

i think the bolded point is something that we should absolutely not forget because not only do i agree but it's also true

going to reread Ara and see how i feel with your perspective in mind

[bugkid666]

okay my perspective on Ara is kind of how i felt when i started reading thread initially. i think this game is a unique case due to the roles needing some sort of game plan ahead of time (or at least a breakdown of the possibilities like rb did) in a public way. however i STILL i feel like the past games i've played, people are generally really hesitant to talk mechanics because many people believe that to be alignment indicative.

my initial impression is that Ara's discussion about mechanics didnt feel forced to me, just like they were excited to chat about it but not want to clog the chat with it. however, i can also see the perspective where a wolf might want to divert attention away from it in a casual way so to make it appear as the former sentiment. i lean towards the former but that could change

hateandhatred where

[bugkid666]

also Weiss hasnt posted at all

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by bugkid666

i think the bolded point is something that we should absolutely not forget because not only do i agree but it's also true

I have definitely seen wolves make these kinds of jokes :thinking:

Like, make them on Champs no less
:thinking: :thinking: :thinking:

Originally Posted by bugkid666

also Weiss hasnt posted at all

Wait who
*Checks*
Oh holy shit we have a player named Weiss in the game lmao I didnt even know

[bugkid666]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

I have definitely seen wolves make these kinds of jokes :thinking:

Like, make them on Champs no less
:thinking: :thinking: :thinking:

i have never once rolled anything other than vanilla wolf. if i end up getting vengeful spirit i'm still not counting it

i know some people really hate rolling wolf but i can't hate it because I've NEVER EXPERIENCED IT AND I'M STILL VERY SALTY ABOUT IT

[bugkid666]

also i only winked because i found it ironic that i was agreeing with you thereby calling myself out but /shrug

[Hateandhatred]

Hey bitches and gentlemen I'm here for real this time though.

I slept in this morning and took care of household stuff but I should be here until EOD with maybe a small break, but yeah

I'm going to catch up on messages, actually am very glad I didn't come back here to 20 pages of d0

[mellon_collie]

Originally Posted by bugkid666

i have never once rolled anything other than vanilla wolf.

Slip. Theory !!!!!!

[leetic]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

Did not expect so much serious chat in here so soon, was sorta looking forward to shit posting lol

Let's get the easy observation out of the way: Haku's town

As far as roles goes, I think I can agree that town being aggressive early is much better then town being even proactive later because we can still make mistakes at this juncture; I've played too many games were blues sat on Killer Powers until the end and let bias-induced anger triggers them to lose the game.

I do my my own bias in that I would target the least active first, though, but if anyone needs me to prach that gospel again I'm sure you'll ask me and I'll type it all up later. Or go read literally any game I've ever been in since 2019.

Let's see

Haku seems like his town game
Leetic seems alright, he could make those post as wolf but I feel good leaning town
I'm garbage at reading Raeko but nothing seems out of the ordinary for her town game
I'll just leave Ara and Bug at gray for now

Can you elaborate more on the Haku read? I don't think any of their posts are really that difficult to come up with from a wolf perspective. That being said, I understand with my limited experience with them that they tend to come off as wolfy by default.