TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

[Arapocalypse]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

Hello y'all,

I'm having a debate with myself right now about if you guys are my best allies or just rolled wolf to stir conversation about blue roles. (I'm talking about either leetic or arapocalypse, but it's never too late to be more sus.)

I can see the enthusiast about looking into how much the game can brute force itself, but it's also one of the easier things to say.

2 wagons is probably the ideal world for whoever has to revisit posts during the night and take decisions.
I surprisingly don't like everyone self-voting here even with the role because wolves don't have to take risks with the votes and it's a lot more difficult to read into.
Not to mention, you have like 66,66% chance to vote someone town (not counting yourself) on the first day.

I usually vote based on behavior or if you're too difficult to read.
So yeah, if you guys can be as transparent as possible with intentions behind plays that'd be great.
That's more important to me than the math being done right.

This phase, I'd be looking at like-minded thoughts and try to vote into a pool that is making the least sense to me.
The good news is that we're the weekend and I should be around a lot. I'm sure I will run into misunderstandings soon enough because I don't have the best reading comprehension. \o

That being said, I understand that it's difficult to talk about behavior when almost no one else posted so, yeah.

Yeah, not going to lie I'm just getting into this because only 1 other person around/it's fun to speculate; the specifics aren't that immediately relevant anyway, too many possibilities!!!!



Also yeah just completely discard the self-voting stuff I mentioned earlier, that's just something that completely wouldn't work well!!



But anyways... any thoughts on alignments of myself or leetic so far? Who's winning the debates so far, you or you?

[Arapocalypse]

(Personally I have basically zero alignment thoughts on leetic so far, this mechanics stuff doesn't really mean much either way!!!)

[leetic]

Originally Posted by Arapocalypse

Yeah okay, that's pretty close to how I did it anyways!!!


Hmm... Freikugel announcing their result is certainly an interesting concept!! That being said, the other advantage of keeping them hidden is that mafia can't just straight up roleblock them; getting the shot off would also be important, even if they die that night!!!


It seems like the issue is ideally the Soul Stealer would not want to be activated at all? They don't want to activate day 2 because the Freikugel would want to get a non-Devil night 2 shot off, and then day 3 it's even more likely they hit the Devil's Shot, unless the Freikugel has claimed!! Both Soul Stealer/Freikugel being alive on day 3 would probably change the situation significantly enough that it would be difficult to anticipate anyway, though!!!



I think if the Freikugel were to claim it would have to be on day 3, if they manage to live that long; you're right in that they likely just holster starting night 3 anyway!!

The Freikugel has the option to make their kill immune to roleblocks, the only disadvantage being that they can't use the strongman (as tracker doesn't matter if you're revealing anyway). It would limit our options somewhat (as wolves wouldn't have to deal with the WIFOM of whether using the vest or the roleblock is optimal) but not cripplingly so.

[leetic]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

Hello y'all,

I'm having a debate with myself right now about if you guys are my best allies or just rolled wolf to stir conversation about blue roles. (I'm talking about either leetic or arapocalypse, but it's never too late to be more sus.)

I can see the enthusiast about looking into how much the game can brute force itself, but it's also one of the easier things to say.

2 wagons is probably the ideal world for whoever has to revisit posts during the night and take decisions.
I surprisingly don't like everyone self-voting here even with the role because wolves don't have to take risks with the votes and it's a lot more difficult to read into.
Not to mention, you have like 66,66% chance to vote someone town (not counting yourself) on the first day.

I usually vote based on behavior or if you're too difficult to read.
So yeah, if you guys can be as transparent as possible with intentions behind plays that'd be great.
That's more important to me than the math being done right.

This phase, I'd be looking at like-minded thoughts and try to vote into a pool that is making the least sense to me.
The good news is that we're the weekend and I should be around a lot. I'm sure I will run into misunderstandings soon enough because I don't have the best reading comprehension. \o

That being said, I understand that it's difficult to talk about behavior when almost no one else posted so, yeah.

I disagree that you can't read people based on mechanical talk. You can learn a lot about the mindset of how someone is approaching the game based on their suggestions. It's basically a skill you have to learn in NSM.

May I ask where you're getting the 66% from? Assuming someone is town, from their perspective a random vote on someone other than themselves would have a 75% chance of hitting town, though that changes depending on whether PRs claim. We should probably assume that a PR should claim if they're in danger of going down at EoD, though it gets more complicated for the non-Freikugel PRs as realistically the counterwagons have a high chance of getting shot by the Freikugel. That's another thing we should probably pin down, coming to a consensus on not only who gets lynched but who the Freikugel should shoot.

[leetic]

Originally Posted by leetic

The Freikugel has the option to make their kill immune to roleblocks, the only disadvantage being that they can't use the strongman (as tracker doesn't matter if you're revealing anyway). It would limit our options somewhat (as wolves wouldn't have to deal with the WIFOM of whether using the vest or the roleblock is optimal) but not cripplingly so.

And of course, the math on whether claiming is the better option or not changes depending on the game state, for instance if the first roll is a one that's good information for town to know as it means the Soul Stealer gets one free role use regardless of the second shot's results. But again, that changes if the Soul Stealer dies early on

[Hakulyte]

Originally Posted by leetic

I disagree that you can't read people based on mechanical talk. You can learn a lot about the mindset of how someone is approaching the game based on their suggestions. It's basically a skill you have to learn in NSM.

May I ask where you're getting the 66% from? Assuming someone is town, from their perspective a random vote on someone other than themselves would have a 75% chance of hitting town, though that changes depending on whether PRs claim. We should probably assume that a PR should claim if they're in danger of going down at EoD, though it gets more complicated for the non-Freikugel PRs as realistically the counterwagons have a high chance of getting shot by the Freikugel. That's another thing we should probably pin down, coming to a consensus on not only who gets lynched but who the Freikugel should shoot.

nvm, I'm tired. I went 6/9 instead of 6/8.

[mellonxcollie]

OMG I DIDNT REALIZE THIS WAS ACTUALLY STARTING WOOOO HI

I was about to go to bed but I guess *cracks beer*

Definitely not going to like get into all this shit y'all are talking about tho like straight up

[Hakulyte]

Originally Posted by Arapocalypse

But anyways... any thoughts on alignments of myself or leetic so far? Who's winning the debates so far, you or you?

Voting over principles is kinda not the way to go 'cause I'm not you.

It will depend on if you guys avoid talking about alignment or not.

Originally Posted by Arapocalypse

(Personally I have basically zero alignment thoughts on leetic so far, this mechanics stuff doesn't really mean much either way!!!)

Originally Posted by leetic

I disagree that you can't read people based on mechanical talk. You can learn a lot about the mindset of how someone is approaching the game based on their suggestions. It's basically a skill you have to learn in NSM.

I feel like I'm in an episode of Good Cop Bad Cop. Hopefully, I'm wearing 3 vests in it.

[leetic]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

Voting over principles is kinda not the way to go 'cause I'm not you.

It will depend on if you guys avoid talking about alignment or not.


I feel like I'm in an episode of Good Cop Bad Cop. Hopefully, I'm wearing 3 vests in it.

I find this post really lame. It's up to you to engage people, you can't just expect people to suddenly have the content you feel okay with.

[leetic]

Originally Posted by mellonxcollie

OMG I DIDNT REALIZE THIS WAS ACTUALLY STARTING WOOOO HI

I was about to go to bed but I guess *cracks beer*

Definitely not going to like get into all this shit y'all are talking about tho like straight up

I think having a solid mechanical plan would really increase town's chance of winning here, but of course reads are super important here too. Do you have any thoughts on the setup at all?

[mellon_collie]

Originally Posted by leetic

I think having a solid mechanical plan would really increase town's chance of winning here, but of course reads are super important here too. Do you have any thoughts on the setup at all?

I think reads are more important to start when we have nothing to go off. Once we have a few flips and information to build upon then discussing mechanics becomes more useful

If we start making plans too early it usually ends up with building assumptions off assumptions and can easily go in the wrong direction

[mellon_collie]

sorry I switched accounts, I forgot to since I haven't played it so long

[leetic]

Originally Posted by mellon_collie

I think reads are more important to start when we have nothing to go off. Once we have a few flips and information to build upon then discussing mechanics becomes more useful

If we start making plans too early it usually ends up with building assumptions off assumptions and can easily go in the wrong direction

It's an open setup, all the information is known except for who has what exactly. It's the perfect time to lay things out before mistakes are made. But maybe I'm just too used to NSM's way of doing things

[Hakulyte]

Originally Posted by leetic

It's an open setup, all the information is known except for who has what exactly. It's the perfect time to lay things out before mistakes are made. But maybe I'm just too used to NSM's way of doing things

Here, I'm more used to see people keep things semi vague so town have just enough info to lean toward the right direction while blues can do their own thing in peace without getting too much attention.
When things are too clear strategically wise, town tend to just lose all their blues in a row because wolves can understand better where to use their night actions.

Withholding information can be good in that context.

tldr; The point of not laying out information is to make it more difficult to find the blues.

[leetic]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

Here, I'm more used to see people keep things semi vague so town have just enough info to lean toward the right direction while blues can do their own thing in peace without getting too much attention.
When things are too clear strategically wise, town tend to just lose all their blues in a row because wolves can understand better where to use their night actions.

Withholding information can be good in that context.

tldr; The point of not laying out information is to make it more difficult to find the blues.

Wolves' biggest advantage over town in setups like these is coordination, and it seems foolish to extend the gap even further. This game also may not even last to D3 and the Freikugel is realistically only getting two shots off, as I pointed out earlier. Nevertheless, enough people have posted that you should find something to gravitate to.

[leetic]

Also, I'm probably going to bed now. There better be a whole page of posts by the time I wake up in the morning

[bugkid666]

Originally Posted by mellonxcollie

OMG I DIDNT REALIZE THIS WAS ACTUALLY STARTING WOOOO HI

I was about to go to bed but I guess *cracks beer*

Definitely not going to like get into all this shit y'all are talking about tho like straight up

these mfs out here doing MATH like what

[bugkid666]

i intend on fulling reading this thread tomorrow around noon server time but i'm here don't fret, i just go to bed early

[MixMasterLar]

Did not expect so much serious chat in here so soon, was sorta looking forward to shit posting lol

Let's get the easy observation out of the way: Haku's town

As far as roles goes, I think I can agree that town being aggressive early is much better then town being even proactive later because we can still make mistakes at this juncture; I've played too many games were blues sat on Killer Powers until the end and let bias-induced anger triggers them to lose the game.

I do my my own bias in that I would target the least active first, though, but if anyone needs me to prach that gospel again I'm sure you'll ask me and I'll type it all up later. Or go read literally any game I've ever been in since 2019.

Let's see

Haku seems like his town game
Leetic seems alright, he could make those post as wolf but I feel good leaning town
I'm garbage at reading Raeko but nothing seems out of the ordinary for her town game
I'll just leave Ara and Bug at gray for now

[MixMasterLar]

I wanna set some expectations

I work at a credit union now. I have to get up at 5PM-ish server time to go to work at the moment, then switching to a slightly later schedule in March

I am not making many, if any, EODs at 11PM

I was gonna say that today would be an exception since I am off the weekend but EOD isn't today so lolololol

Also I can no longer play at work because my job is too dependent on me actually engaging people in real time now, so my apologies if you were expecting the old volume posting Lar.

A lot has changed in my life over the last year or two. The positive change is that I know love with my fianceé Alanna, and I have never known someone who completes me in the way she does. The not positive changes can wait for another post, though. I'm healthy, so I suppose I shouldn't complain, but well.....