TWG CLXXXV: C9+++++++++ Game Thread

[Daikyi]

Re: TWG CLXXXV: C9+++++++++ Game Thread

Scenario A: MML got framed by wolves + roleblocked. Wolves are hoping he self-destruct because he's still alive to make town kill a PR for them. Wolves fucked up and assumed Xel was a PR for some reasons.

Scenario B: MML is wolfing and taking advantage of Xel's death/pretending to get roleblocked to not deal with his cop check.
His goal for the phase is to remain alive and get away with his claim because this setup can work in multiple ways. Gradiant could be a potential partner, but this can go either way. Having 2 wolves hiding behind a hard claim banner keeps poe fairly big.
Ulterior motive would be to survive last phase the previous phase and push the lynch on FFA.

That being said, I'm not getting the why for the Xel NK. Feels like a random chaos kill.


That's a strange choice of words.

On what basis are you saying that "he's convinced on lynching town" ?



That's double edged. A wolf could want to hypocop to find the real cop especially in a situation where all the wolves are alive. This setup can roll multiple cops too. There might be enough technical reasons for this.

Could go either way tbh because cops need to eventually leave posterity in case they get NK'd randomly.

this post also has an antori post quoted in between it

Originally Posted by Antori View Post
i dont see you pushing raeko at all you're really convinced on lynching town instead

and i went back and read the exchange at #1129, which we know is bogus af and holy fuck 20/20 hindsight this looks cringely manufactured as fuck. stuff like this interaction that was internal to haku+antori regarding raeko also feels so manufactured.

[ShadoWolfe]

Re: TWG CLXXXV: C9+++++++++ Game Thread

...shadowolfe has said something to this effect like 3 times this phase or something right

Twice, why?

Start of phase and again when I made that post to reference back to the initial, but fwiw I don't think the wording is accurate anymore

[Daikyi]

Re: TWG CLXXXV: C9+++++++++ Game Thread

I said I'd leave a will of sorts in case I draw the NK

...shadowolfe has said something to this effect like 3 times this phase or something right

[Daikyi]

Re: TWG CLXXXV: C9+++++++++ Game Thread

YoshL would be my guess for the last wolf. He's done a lot of mechanical talk, and a lot of general statements that could apply to all games like "dumb tells shouldn't be a thing" and "don't underestimate people". But it seems like he has put less investigative work in and isn't having to think about things from a town perspective. For a lot of the game, his reads didn't seem very developed, he had a lot of null or sheeped reads. It seemed like he wasn't putting forth a lot of effort into reading people because he didn't need to.

i also very much dislike the "general statements" part of this analysis, because it's not a general statement. it's specifically directed towards the sentiment that's been expressed multiple times that the haku/antori/raeko team wouldn't be able to make strategic wolf plays. like, sure yeah it can be applied to many situations, however it has incredible relavancy when people are actively discarding teams because "no everyone on that team sucks too much".

to all of the other points mentioned regarding not developing reads, sure i wasn't following the game as closely because work actively takes up so much of my time nowadays. also, the same can be said about your game tbh, where you've posted somehow even less than antori, who in my opinion had more thread presence and impact when they were alive. I didn't see any concrete pushes, I didn't see any attempts to push any narrative from your end, it was all very backseat nothing-doing, kind of like legitimatlely putting your best effort out to not stick out. "reads didn't seem very developed, he had a lot of null or sheeped reads" feels so wrong to even try and push on someone with, given that null reads do not indicate less development, and sheeped reads means that you have enough of a green read on someone else to trust their judgment regarding other players. In addition, I think i said only "i'm sheeping roundbox on raeko", and the rest of my reads have been pretty standalone.

[mellon_collie]

Re: TWG CLXXXV: C9+++++++++ Game Thread

given how much i've paid attention to a lot of the game (not a lot tbh)

[Daikyi]

Re: TWG CLXXXV: C9+++++++++ Game Thread

holy shit my reads list was actually somewhat on point i'm impressed at myself given how much i've paid attention to a lot of the game (not a lot tbh)

[mellon_collie]

Re: TWG CLXXXV: C9+++++++++ Game Thread

shado - not really seeing the tunneling all game you're talking about here. the over-confident tone you're talking about also isn't something you caught first, I'm pretty sure you brought it up after I mentioned he was being extremely arrogant, along with a couple others as well like mml saying his 'pat on the back' was a dick move. The whole bringing things up after the fact has been something you've been doing all game.

He's definitely been tunneling after me all game? I can quote specific posts for you if you want but he's made multiple pushes on me across multiple phases. And he's been very confident about his pushes on me. The "confident tone" read may seem like a sheeped read, but just because someone picked up on something first that doesn't mean I didn't pick up on it also. In this case, for the same reason as well as a different reason (his confident pushes on me).

me - okay, but it seems odd that shados snippet was way more scummy than mine, yet your lynch order for us is swapped

I'm not sure why it came across that way, but I don't feel like he is more scummy than you. The comment about the tunnel was a bit of a paranoid thought, but the read I have on him is the read I have the most confidence in, and it's not a scum read. Genuinely not sure where you got this from.

yoshl - I'd agree that there's been mechanical talk, and that there's been statements that you mentioned. Those statements i believe are tied into the fact that he's trying to be less antagonistic and have people not shoehorn into one thing (like me saying an antori/mellon/haku team would be too dumb to use fakeclaims). Not too sure about the undeveloped reads or sheeped reads, because I get that a hell of a lot more from you. Just like the mechanics (if you're a wolf), there's no reason for you to care about determining wolf setup because you'd know it anyway.

This is a fair point, I considered while I was writing it that many of these points applied to me as well, so take it as you will. But I hope you at least seriously consider my thoughts. For me, this is a pretty flaky post:

in terms of the remaining players
roundbox - easily the most clear development of reads across the board over all players except for me probably lol. I don't think i'm able to follow his mindset as closely if he's wolfing
4) MixMasterLar - confirmed cop for all intents and purposes rn that needs to settle the fuck down and actually think about the game being confirmed, rather than deluding himself over some grandiose catch that he thinks he has tbh
5) Gradiant - becoming much more wary at the cool calm gradiant here, and am wondering if the early phase "wow same thoughts as daikyi" is more of a subtle pocket attempt rather than anything, because i was only really pointing out things that stuck out to me, rather than giving any fleshed out reads at all
7) inDheart - i haven't attempted to read
10) Antori - can really go either way at this point. it feels bad not having resolved him early on, the "probably derptown" gut feel has long since subsided. The same kind of feel you'd get for pursuing like, haku, wv, drizzleromancegirl, etc. on d0
11) Hakulyte - kinda dropped off the face of the planet, which is also pretty worrying because i think his town game heavily revolves around trying to make plays and actively engage in the game. imo probably would get my first vote
12) mellonxcollie - literally just sheeping roundbox's read
13) ShadoWolfe - same as indheart

just as a mindset update, also i forgot to mention that ffa is actual garbage lol

like, that shado read really feels like an appeasement to the person that was probably questioning you the most this game.

I can see why you would think that, but reading into his interaction with me is a pretty concrete way to solve him for myself and that's the read I get when I look at his posts.

[mellon_collie]

Re: TWG CLXXXV: C9+++++++++ Game Thread

mellon, explain your 'aaaaaaa shit' reaction to roundbox switching votes to ffa after mml's cop claim and your immediate dropping of questioning haku's last 'reads' list after he told you he wasn't pairing you and shado when he most certainly was (you two were the two scum in his list of final reads)

sorry, I'm responding to the other stuff, but have seriously none of you guys seen the "aaaaaa shit, here we go again" GTA meme?

cause I was just quoting that meme

roundbox said "here we go again" so I said "aaaaaaaa shit"

it's that deep for that response

But for the rest of the situation basically I will go through this EOD again but I thought when Xel made a post that said "Lar is a wolf" that he was trying to counterclaim subtly without saying so, I was trying to figure out what was going on and having a difficult time. So I figured roundbox caught on to something I was missing, but the "aaaaaaaa shit" was just a meme

I really thought you guys would get that....

https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/ah-shit-here-we-go-again

[Gradiant]

Re: TWG CLXXXV: C9+++++++++ Game Thread

like, that shado read really feels like an appeasement to the person that was probably questioning you the most this game.

[Gradiant]

Re: TWG CLXXXV: C9+++++++++ Game Thread

mellon, explain your 'aaaaaaa shit' reaction to roundbox switching votes to ffa after mml's cop claim and your immediate dropping of questioning haku's last 'reads' list after he told you he wasn't pairing you and shado when he most certainly was (you two were the two scum in his list of final reads)

[Gradiant]

Re: TWG CLXXXV: C9+++++++++ Game Thread

shado pushing me all game I would normally find shady as hell from him but I think he really believes it this time. I think he's picked up on a lot of things that he considers to be true tells from me, and he's put work into finding quotes/posts. it's not the lazy sort of push I've seen from him faking pushes on me in the past.

The only thing I don't like about it is his hyper-focus, especially now when he said he doesn't even care if he loses the game he just wants to kill me. That could be the over-confident tone I caught earlier in the game. But generally I think he looks pretty good, I think it would be a really ballsy play for a wolf to just keep going after the same mislynch over and over for the entire game. I think he really believes it

Gradiant I think looks decent as well. I remember mind-melding with him earlier in the game and since then I think his mindset looks towny still. He was really gung-ho about lynching Antori and had him on his wolf list and was asking him a lot of questions. Which could have been a bussing play but he didn't really have any reason to bus Antori at that time so I don't see why he would have done it. I also like that he thought to look at Lar's posts to see Lar's read on me, that seems like something someone would do when they genuinely don't know what the answer is.

YoshL would be my guess for the last wolf. He's done a lot of mechanical talk, and a lot of general statements that could apply to all games like "dumb tells shouldn't be a thing" and "don't underestimate people". But it seems like he has put less investigative work in and isn't having to think about things from a town perspective. For a lot of the game, his reads didn't seem very developed, he had a lot of null or sheeped reads. It seemed like he wasn't putting forth a lot of effort into reading people because he didn't need to.

When I was going through his ISO just now, I saw a lot of posts defending both Antori and Haku. Of course townies can be wrong and defend wolves, but given what we know now these posts seem like they are definitely trying to deflect attention from Antroi or Haku. And change people's perspectives to be more favourable about them.

So I think the last wolf is YoshL, with a slight chance of it being Gradiant, I would be very surprised if it is Shado

Sorry for the wall of text, thank you for letting me get my thoughts out in time. I think I am good to go now

shado - not really seeing the tunneling all game you're talking about here. the over-confident tone you're talking about also isn't something you caught first, I'm pretty sure you brought it up after I mentioned he was being extremely arrogant, along with a couple others as well like mml saying his 'pat on the back' was a dick move. The whole bringing things up after the fact has been something you've been doing all game.

me - okay, but it seems odd that shados snippet was way more scummy than mine, yet your lynch order for us is swapped

yoshl - I'd agree that there's been mechanical talk, and that there's been statements that you mentioned. Those statements i believe are tied into the fact that he's trying to be less antagonistic and have people not shoehorn into one thing (like me saying an antori/mellon/haku team would be too dumb to use fakeclaims). Not too sure about the undeveloped reads or sheeped reads, because I get that a hell of a lot more from you. Just like the mechanics (if you're a wolf), there's no reason for you to care about determining wolf setup because you'd know it anyway.

[mellon_collie]

Re: TWG CLXXXV: C9+++++++++ Game Thread

Fair. I don't agree with the hyperfocus thing because I keep reexamining and coming back to you even after sincerely trying to see how you're town, but overall those are fair points. It's worth reconsidering Daikyi.

I want to wait and give Gradiant a chance to share his 2 cents on raeko's post before I'm comfortable ending phase

Yeah you did seem like you were reexamining, but you ended up coming back to me every single time and also seemed very sure of it. But when you look at your posts you come across as really looking for stuff, it doesn't seem fake so I still think you are town

I would also like to see Gradiant's and Dai's response as well before we insta, if you guys don't mind

[ShadoWolfe]

Re: TWG CLXXXV: C9+++++++++ Game Thread

Fair. I don't agree with the hyperfocus thing because I keep reexamining and coming back to you even after sincerely trying to see how you're town, but overall those are fair points. It's worth reconsidering Daikyi.

I want to wait and give Gradiant a chance to share his 2 cents on raeko's post before I'm comfortable ending phase

[mellon_collie]

Re: TWG CLXXXV: C9+++++++++ Game Thread

shado pushing me all game I would normally find shady as hell from him but I think he really believes it this time. I think he's picked up on a lot of things that he considers to be true tells from me, and he's put work into finding quotes/posts. it's not the lazy sort of push I've seen from him faking pushes on me in the past.

The only thing I don't like about it is his hyper-focus, especially now when he said he doesn't even care if he loses the game he just wants to kill me. That could be the over-confident tone I caught earlier in the game. But generally I think he looks pretty good, I think it would be a really ballsy play for a wolf to just keep going after the same mislynch over and over for the entire game. I think he really believes it

Gradiant I think looks decent as well. I remember mind-melding with him earlier in the game and since then I think his mindset looks towny still. He was really gung-ho about lynching Antori and had him on his wolf list and was asking him a lot of questions. Which could have been a bussing play but he didn't really have any reason to bus Antori at that time so I don't see why he would have done it. I also like that he thought to look at Lar's posts to see Lar's read on me, that seems like something someone would do when they genuinely don't know what the answer is.

YoshL would be my guess for the last wolf. He's done a lot of mechanical talk, and a lot of general statements that could apply to all games like "dumb tells shouldn't be a thing" and "don't underestimate people". But it seems like he has put less investigative work in and isn't having to think about things from a town perspective. For a lot of the game, his reads didn't seem very developed, he had a lot of null or sheeped reads. It seemed like he wasn't putting forth a lot of effort into reading people because he didn't need to.

When I was going through his ISO just now, I saw a lot of posts defending both Antori and Haku. Of course townies can be wrong and defend wolves, but given what we know now these posts seem like they are definitely trying to deflect attention from Antroi or Haku. And change people's perspectives to be more favourable about them.

So I think the last wolf is YoshL, with a slight chance of it being Gradiant, I would be very surprised if it is Shado

Sorry for the wall of text, thank you for letting me get my thoughts out in time. I think I am good to go now

[the sun fan]

Re: TWG CLXXXV: C9+++++++++ Game Thread

votecount:
Haku (1)- Daikyi
unvote- Gradiant, Shado