TWG CLXX Anything but Nekopara Game Thread

[sanzath]

Re: TWG CLXX Anything but Nekopara Game Thread

this could honestly go both ways

if he's a wolf, tinfoiling against a confirmed vigilante is fucking stupid

To be sure, blind flipping godfather confirmed the setup even before the 2 kills during the night did

[Gradiant]

Re: TWG CLXX Anything but Nekopara Game Thread

ill be at work rest of tonight.
Freezin, sanzath, and wv need to make cases on why the other 2 are scummier than themselves

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG CLXX Anything but Nekopara Game Thread

bump

[the sun fan]

Re: TWG CLXX Anything but Nekopara Game Thread

no votes have been cast

[Wayward Vagabond]

Re: TWG CLXX Anything but Nekopara Game Thread

just a heads up i have two interviews tomorrow so i'll be gone for huge chunks of time considering how far the interviews are from my house/each other and i have to help my sister out with some things. i should be back by 5ish pst


i hate that i was played by sanz and freezin. this just goes to show that i'm a garbage player. i'm going to try to do what i can when i get back because i don't want to be the reason we lose. i dont want or need something like this hanging over my head

[FreezinIce]

Re: TWG CLXX Anything but Nekopara Game Thread

Heres me pulling the curtain back and attempting to level with you, it didnt take me HOURS to come fully to the conclusion i did.

A big chunk of that time was just spent watching umineko let's plays partly because i wanted to make absolutely sure i knew what i was talking about and partly cause it was genuinely entertaining. I'll lay out the flow of how i arrived where i did.

let me preface this again by saying going in to this the only think i knew about umineko was that it was

>A murder mystery VN

>Furudo Erika was in this series (I had previously googled to figure out who the character was that you were posting images of)

Googling "Detective Proclamation" brought up immediately umineko material. So at this point, since you and roundbox spent all game previously talking about umineko i feel that im on the right track and the secret message is in fact a message couched in umineko terminology.

My next move was to google "Detective Proclaimation umineko." This gave me the lions share of the information i synthesized to come to my conclusions: The wiki page for the term that referenced Van Dines and Knox's laws for detective fiction, the page for red truth (which i later found out was a facet of the detective role), a youtube lets play of umineko with a title called "Detective Proclaimation" (of which i watched several videos), a wordpress blog that, while not as helpful as the other things i discovered introduced me to how detectives make deductions that i would borrow for a later post.

Somewhere along the way I unknowingly found the actual answer i was seeking couched in a tumblr blog (it described a situation where Erika did not make a detectives proclamation, so she could commit a murder herself). I was convinced Van Dines/Knox's laws held the key, so I pored over them and pieced together a likely hypothesis based on the situation we found ourselves in. Then I shared it.

thats my thought and investigative process recalled to the best of my memory.

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG CLXX Anything but Nekopara Game Thread

I can buy that

I'm done for tonight, I await everyone's cases tomorrow

[FreezinIce]

Re: TWG CLXX Anything but Nekopara Game Thread

as a town, how did you know that you wouldn't just be wasting your time

as a town, you have very little reason to expect a counterclaim, so spending potentially HOURS and HOURS trying to decipher my messages doesn't make sense

at any point, if I were in your shoes, I'd probably give up because there's no guarantee that I'm not just spewing bullshit

but as a wolf, if you know I'm not spewing bullshit, you might be more motivated to solve the mystery, because you know there's an answer

You had no reason to act the way you were unless you were hiding something. Thats just not something i could ever see you do, talking about literal nonsense openly thats not substantiated at all

[FreezinIce]

Re: TWG CLXX Anything but Nekopara Game Thread

what concerns me is that

it sounds like a lot of work for potentially no reason, if you're town

if you're town, you have no real reason to expect anything "magical" from me, per se, so investing a lot of time in what could be a huge nothing burger doesn't seem intuitive

additionally, I believe that I said I would reveal something, so all you really had to do was wait

but instead, you decided to preempt me, to solve everything by yourself

if you're a wolf, you KNOW there's a counterclaim, so you are nearly certain that it is something I would do since I was being so cryptic

and solving it yourself serves your wolf team because it allows you to communicate this to your wolf team early.

wrong, you acting smug and making those bold claims to my face pissed me off so much that i actually left the thread angry. you were belittling me, brushing off my questions, and i didnt understand why. then you left some cryptic message to roundbox and still talked around me.

gradually that anger turned to curiosity, especially when roundbox replied.

once I started investigating it pretty much sucked me in and i felt like i discovered something.

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG CLXX Anything but Nekopara Game Thread

tl;dr if you're a wolf expecting a counterclaim, cryptic behavior sparks a "aha!" moment and you want to figure out what the potential counterclaim could be b4 you tell your partners

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG CLXX Anything but Nekopara Game Thread

as a town, how did you know that you wouldn't just be wasting your time

as a town, you have very little reason to expect a counterclaim, so spending potentially HOURS and HOURS trying to decipher my messages doesn't make sense

at any point, if I were in your shoes, I'd probably give up because there's no guarantee that I'm not just spewing bullshit

but as a wolf, if you know I'm not spewing bullshit, you might be more motivated to solve the mystery, because you know there's an answer

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG CLXX Anything but Nekopara Game Thread

i'll do this but ill preface it by saying probably 75% of my cool post actually ended up making it to my actual post, i couldnt leave it as just a simple summary.

whats missing is some roleplaying elements and a lot of pics because i was feeling excited and inspired at the time. when it because clear you might post the answer before i got a shot at guessing it i decided to cut those out and stick with the facts

what concerns me is that

it sounds like a lot of work for potentially no reason, if you're town

if you're town, you have no real reason to expect anything "magical" from me, per se, so investing a lot of time in what could be a huge nothing burger doesn't seem intuitive

additionally, I believe that I said I would reveal something, so all you really had to do was wait

but instead, you decided to preempt me, to solve everything by yourself

if you're a wolf, you KNOW there's a counterclaim, so you are nearly certain that it is something I would do since I was being so cryptic

and solving it yourself serves your wolf team because it allows you to communicate this to your wolf team early.

[FreezinIce]

Re: TWG CLXX Anything but Nekopara Game Thread

me heavily being sympathetic with blind was also a gross oversight. You're right to say that my play that day was mostly bad.

I became extremely sympathetic towards him, to the point that i felt like i needed to defend him because i could see myself in the situation he was in (and indeed have been in that situation several times.) I saw someone who was trying to project town and doing a crappy job because he had no time to work with. And everyone was piling up on him which also set off alarms to me. So i decided to defend his play.

and obviously that worked out pretty bad because now its coming back to bite me.

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG CLXX Anything but Nekopara Game Thread

I've done enough accidental dumbtells as town that I think that would be something I'd try as wolf >

good

Oh yeah, gonna get this out of the way too before going to bed

Since Xiz flipped VT, this is obviously wrong, but it was my thought process and I'm 100% certain it was WV's too





WV's post made me look back at what Xiz said, the way he worded it with such confidence made me think Xiz/Opk rolled Mason together - and the way WV responded made me thing this was his conclusion too

Obviously posting bluereads is bad so I didn't want to go into specifics about what I thought was happening, so I mostly just hinted that I thought I knew what was happening

But then Opk went and posted this





Which made me realize it was probably wrong, because if it was right then opkiller wouldn't be so goddamn confused on the matter



^Further indication that I was mindmelding like fuck with WV - at least for the first part -, and fuck me if it looks like I'm sheeping (or pocketing??) WV super hard

A little later after I'd basically dismissed the theory due to Opk's reactions, while doing my reread, I saw the post that was likely the actual reason for Xiz reading Opk as town with such confidence



... Which I posted, specifically @WV because I was certain we had the same thought process on the entire thing and I figured he might be interested in the post as well

Which then led to Yoshl calling me a sheep and you claiming I was pocketing WV, rip

Anyway I'm posting this now mostly for opkiller's benefit since he was super confused on WV's thought process (although I think dbp and charu were confused too), and I guess to make it clear exactly where I was coming from with some of my cryptic posts near eod

bad

And if roundbox is secretly pocketing me it's fucking working

good

Not sure either of blind/manti are good lynches tbh

not sure

Having a really hard time finding specific posts vecause phone

Im caught up, can anyone remind me what blind's and dbp's night action claims are?

is this a dumbtell a wolf sanz would make?

I went back and did an ISO on sans, since he's one the most unsure for me.

Makes a call out like this, which I find odd for a newer player


Put a vote on a town


I know self voting is a thing on ffr, but I feel like a new town player would be hesitant of doing such a thing.


I found it odd to make a "lock clear" for something like this.


Step 2 bothers me even if it was a shit post.



Calls out cel being scummy because he asked to to be asked questions. He wasn't wrong here this time.





These two he mindmelds with WV, and calls out OPK and xiz a w/w team.



Here he backs up WV and understood what he meant automatically.




I don't think he ever explained. Broken promises are usually wolves trying to look good previously in the game.


Here he votes manti and says xiz is a good lynch too which we now know is between two town, doesn't look good.


Here he "remembered" wrong about the letter set up, when it takes a minute to double check the letter roll scenarios.


Here he's upset that he's being read town because of a dumbtell. Which I feel is towny, but i think that's why he did it.


Why read someone town for a gimmick like that, and then NOT read him town for actually playing the game?


Here is a long ass post defending WV. ~More connections~




He caught up, and then had nothing of importance to say.


Has been mindmelding with WV the entire game, and then says he doesn't THINK WV/charu are a team? That's inconsistent.


and then right after defends WV again???????


Sans said the reason they were fighting was pointless, and charu called it out saying it wasn't because xiz flipped town.


Quickly wants to confirm if charu was still reading him town.

Questions Rounds logic that I mentioned in my ISO of roundbox.



Same thing roundbox did. "hey, I'm in thread, but I'm not going to do anything."





Towny points asking even though it's kinda been discusssed.

Asks round about his logic and all round answers with it ~FEARKILL~

Off the wall tinfoil, which actually has merit. DBP and I didn't have much convo on D0.


Throws this out there when DBP says I'd be a good lynch.


Yeah, they never are.... This was a push for some towny cred.


Listed off a reads on the people voting at the time after the above post.


Gut said to vote the cop, which I don't think he knew, but I think he knew he wasn't scum.


distancing???


Calls charu scum for the mentioned posts above.


First town/town lynch he didn't like.




After doing this, I'm more sure of sans being wolf again. He hasn't had good voting, he's attached himself to WV. It looks like a pocket in my point of view. I have a good feeling to vote either sans or round with confidence. I don't see myself right now going somewhere else.

then, of course, this golden post from blind

does blind make an extensive ISO against a wolf partner who could potentially be lynched here?

Personally, I don't like you not shooting tonight, because if blind flips roleblocker, then you shooting confirms there's still 2 KP in the game and thus kills my tinfoil

killing my tinfoil is a good thing if you didn't catch that, I don't want to be distracted by it next dayphase

this could honestly go both ways

if he's a wolf, tinfoiling against a confirmed vigilante is fucking stupid
does blind make an extensive post like this against a wolf partner????

now thinking about it how did opk and and sanz pick up the gimmick he was using

given that WV is a wolf, does he try to throw sanz under the bus here

[FreezinIce]

Re: TWG CLXX Anything but Nekopara Game Thread

freezin, when you have a chance, can you go into more detail about how you figured out my soft?

you mentioned that you were going to post a really cool post, can you do that for me?

i'll do this but ill preface it by saying probably 75% of my cool post actually ended up making it to my actual post, i couldnt leave it as just a simple summary.

whats missing is some roleplaying elements and a lot of pics because i was feeling excited and inspired at the time. when it because clear you might post the answer before i got a shot at guessing it i decided to cut those out and stick with the facts