TWG CLXVII Game Thread How Was Awakening Reviewed

[MixMasterLar]

Re: TWG CLXVII Game Thread How Was Awakening Reviewed

ALSO while a second kill in the night is possible, the fact that you still refer to it as an SK kinda shows me you're not all that caught up with everything. SK is very unlikely, and what we've seen points to a 3rd party guesser.

[Celirra]

Re: TWG CLXVII Game Thread How Was Awakening Reviewed

In regards to whether or not manti can be trusted, honestly I always have had my doubts about him, and I think I've been pretty vocal in regards to that. I'm curious who else he roleblocked in the past night phases still.

Just to be clear, I think DBP should die today based solely on his play. Any other info that supports that theory is a boon.

His consistent ability to materialize in the thread when his name is brought up or he is voted for is further evidence that he has been following this game rather closely, despite his inability to make posts or generate discussion. This is not human play, this is wolf UTR.

I do want to hear a bit more in regards to this; I think it's consistent enough? I admittedly don't remember finding much regarding him specifically incriminating me at any point, but if he did in the past then it is consistent in his thinking that he would roleblock DBP and myself.

[MixMasterLar]

Re: TWG CLXVII Game Thread How Was Awakening Reviewed

....If it actually comes down to not being able to decide no lynching is not the worst idea

But frankly I can't help but feel like you're using it as an excuse Cel. Like, you don't pitch a way to confirm Manti or work through any of the logic yourself you spend your whole post trying to convince us to not lynch.

TBH I rarely believe in no lynching in most cases but if we no lynch I at least want to feel like we spent the time actually talking about what's going on and not saying "oh, no lynch" just to see you fade back away.

This Thunderdome does suck.

[Celirra]

Re: TWG CLXVII Game Thread How Was Awakening Reviewed

In regards to me lurking and being largely inactive, I've been racking my brain around whether or not Manti can be trusted, because that is my priority here above all else; I'd much rather not have another mislynch because at this point, at best we can only have two more mislynches before we lose; at worst, if there is 3P, then it could be as grave as having only one more mislynch before we lose, under this:

10 right now
mislynch -1 = 9
NK:
wolf -1
SK -1
7 by start of next day
3 wolves 1 sk
very difficult for town to win unless we roleblock well

That's more just why I'm really trying to figure this out hard right now and I'm a bit worried of haphazardly posting, because if Manti is to be trusted with this vote, then there is mathematically a 50% chance that we're in a bad spot to win, assuming there's equal odds of me or DBP being lynched.

I have a suggestion for what it's worth:
no lynch (is this how this works? basically no lynch tonight)
if there is no 3p, then we don't actually have to lynch; thus is the beauty of even numbers.

10 now
no lynch
nk -1
9 for next day phase
1 mislynch permissible assuming no PR intervention (2 mislynches = 3w 2t)

else:
10 now
lynch -1
nk -1
8 for next day phase
1 mislynch permissible assuming no PR intervention (2 mislynches = 3w 1t; with 1 mislynch it would be 3w 3t, or 2w 2t, or so on, which I believe means town still has a chance? if #t = #w means a loss for town, then I actually think it might be more beneficial to hold off tonight at no harm? unless we have no doubt)

please correct me if any of this could be incorrect; I do know that even #'s permit a no-lynch anyways I believe, even if my reasoning is incorrect, in which case oops, and please clarify if I am wrong

This way we get more info from a NK potentially before we make a risky vote between two, myself and DBP, because I don't think any of us are confident of either of us being town OR wolf.

Also for what it's worth, don't hammer anyone tonight; I think insta'ing anyone right now is a bad call, so please be careful with actually dropping the hard votes.

[inDheart]

Re: TWG CLXVII Game Thread How Was Awakening Reviewed

This is a pretty sucky thunderdome

did we forget to tell them to thunderdome

[DarkManticoreX2]

Re: TWG CLXVII Game Thread How Was Awakening Reviewed

This is a pretty sucky thunderdome

[Xiz]

Re: TWG CLXVII Game Thread How Was Awakening Reviewed

i would like to hear more opinions on the 3p question i posed - if people think we should prioritize looking for a 3p today just numbers wise, then that's where i want to spend my time

I don't really want to talk about it that much honestly, I think there are far more important things to be discussing.

[Xiz]

Re: TWG CLXVII Game Thread How Was Awakening Reviewed

because like im not sure if im tunneling from dbp and tokzic being inactive or what.

Also cel was on manti last night, while dbp was on blind

[MixMasterLar]

Re: TWG CLXVII Game Thread How Was Awakening Reviewed

Cel and DBP both seem to be lurking though, so before I cast a vote I wanna see them give thoughts.

There is always a possibility of a fake PR claim from Manti, but to be honest unless someone else wants to take credit for our peaceful night phase it makes we'd have a roleblocker among us.

someone threw out a bunch of my food and i'm pissed

so that's been fun

Beat them up

i would like to hear more opinions on the 3p question i posed - if people think we should prioritize looking for a 3p today just numbers wise, then that's where i want to spend my time

I never really believed in doing that, it's way easier to find and lynch wolves. If town does it rapidly enough we'll have the time to look for 3rd party safely.

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG CLXVII Game Thread How Was Awakening Reviewed

just for peace of mind for everyone I'm here and I'm reading

[Xiz]

Re: TWG CLXVII Game Thread How Was Awakening Reviewed

mml do you believe confidence is alignment indicative between these two, as in do you think if cel posted more confidently you would have these reads swapped?

[MixMasterLar]

Re: TWG CLXVII Game Thread How Was Awakening Reviewed

Cel is defiantly less impressive in his post then DBP is.

He questions Tiloco and thinks the claim is fishy as it stood when it was made and that's a major plus for him in my book because blindly accepting that would be foolish but, past that I remember alot of what he said didn't jive with me

That "mathematically" reason for wolves no killing, for example. Yes I know he took it back. No, it still looks bad.

A lot of these post are pretty standardized comments that don't further the thread that much (one simply reads "bullying is mean!!!!"). I do that too at times but the ratio here is pretty bad.

It still looks like he was sheeping my reads last phase. Even looking out for it I see no real reasons why he landed on Dark and Blind as his top two. Keep in mind this was where he stood before that point:

If you couldn't tell by my analysis, I don't think anyone is extremely mafia right now; this is a tough game.

So there's that.

Oh, there's his 0-100% reads list he made earlier that just about everyone had an issue with. He basically throws it all out the window later though although he does have Dark/Blind as lynch candidates so that at least is persistent. For reference:

As I mentioned, this will be in a 0-100% scale; 100% meaning I'm guaranteed to vote them TONIGHT, 0% means I'm definitely not voting them TONIGHT, and anything in between is more priority as I see the odds fit. This isn't their % chance to be a wolf necessarily; that said, I wouldn't put someone I believe to be wolf in a lower percentile than someone I know to be town or something. There's factors such as what to gain from flips and such as well. I'll colour code based on thoughts if I don't forget when transfering from sublime text to forum. If not, remind me and I'll give a quick run down on explicit tl;dr leanings. I basically iso'd everyone for their respective parts, and picked up what I thought was relevant and moreorless reinforced feelings rather than direct quotes since this is 2017 after all.

I'm not 100% on anyone as wolf otherwise there'd be a red
WOLF LEANING
NULL LEANING WOLF
NULL LEANING TOWN
TOWN LEANING
TOWN

In order of listed in OP:



1) inDheart

To preface this, I've always had a kind of... weird feeling about InD this whole game. I called it out d0, but it was largely brushed off as nothing (understandably!). But, he still gives me some doubt for a reason I can't exactly pinpoint. A lot of what he's doing feels more like setup for others than his own independence in actions. A recent example, though not terribly incriminating and pointed out my own accidental vagueness, is the cute spreadsheet saying everyone's leanings (#2068), in which even there he was fairly non-committal on many people. I recall a lot of complaining about people idly not saying a lot d0, while not saying a ton himself, though he got more involved once others did.

On to less feely stuff, my doubt started getting a bit clearer going over and seeing #608 reads list; it felt fairly genuine it seems, and was well considered. I do think he was one of few people who particularly pointed out Haku as being "useful", which is interesting, but I think if anything that just contributed to haku dying? Same deal with Roundbox, he really exaggerated how much he contributed. Seems he's trying to really reward people for being good little townies (this was post-roundbox death though, I'm more just getting his personality in check).

Back to the theme of him largely just presenting info, things such as #1531 is kind of pecuilar and I think I'm just not smart enough to pick out what point he was going for, if any.

He was about early-mid on the Xel wagon, so not early enough for full credit and could've jumped on to add steam to the choo choo train there, to give him a bit of credit. But, I'm leaning to genuine.

It's hard for me to find a lot that he's really... done lately I guess.

for what its worth though I'm glad InD is replying to me a lot, it makes me feel like I'm special; I think we should get married.

I'm gonna put InD under the category of "I'm gonna come back to this one", but he's mostly okay for now. 38%



2) MixMasterLar

You really don't like Blind it seems. I don't know if it's an act or not; if it's an act chances are it's W/W, if it's not an act, chances are it's T/T or T/W (less likely (I know I just went over all the possible options, sue me, whatever)).

I think his aggression to Xel early on is a bit of a good sign, and his aggression with Blind is a bit... uh, we'll see.

I'm gonna seem lazy for saying this.. But I just can't help but consider MML as town. He seems so... genuine as a whole, too much so to be wolf. Seems legitimately frustrated at people not playing a ton, being consistent with his thoughts. He's not skimping and is being very forthcoming with anything really. I looked through all he said and nothing much came off as terribly bad. I'd put him town, unless his charade with Blind proves to be false in which case they're both wolves, and I'm glad that they're friends.

6%



3) Celirra

I'm pretty cute, right~



4) Xiz

I don't understand the wagons for you. Similar with MML, you come off as genuine, maybe not to as high a degree, and I'd sooner vote you than MML probably, but it just seems a bit suspect that you're getting so much flak. I like how we have a similar thought on #1886, I think your observation of me in the latest EoD was interesting and townlike (voting me maybe a bit odd, but I do see the reasoning behind it). #1813 is another interesting point, and I think he is onto something with it; I hope I get a chance to look into it before EoD this phase (if someone can provide a claim that it was not the following then my stance on this matter will do a 180: it wasn't that the Xel vote seemed like wolves gunning for a town mislynch, it felt more like a vote to guarantee security on another wolf who was more firmly rooted).

I'm going to sound concieted saying this, but in a way I feel like you're flipflopping on me a fair bit, unless I'm misunderstanding some things (eg. #1792), but I don't think it's 180 enough to be very wolfy.

I recall him forgetting OP once as if he maybe didn't care enough to read the potential setups, which might be part of whats giving people a bad feeling of him potentially being wolf, implying he knows the setup so he doesn't need to be worried? But I doubt that's it.

14%



5) Tokzic

That big list of reads is weird, and seemed like an out, but in some ways I think your play almost fits in a case of "it's so wolfy that it's not wolfy" in that regard, as well as your general tone. The "slip" noticed by dbp yesterday from you being proven 100% false almost acts like a reverse slip; I think we should go back to tokzic at some point but for now he's ok in my books. I wouldn't put you hard town, but you definitely shouldn't be voted. Not much for you, I think a lot of it is intuitive.

10%



6) tiloco217

The horse doesn't even have blood left to beat out of it anymore.

0%, I've explained why already.


7) DarkManticoreX2

So I explained a theory regarding you potentially being the puppetmaster behind people going along with the flow or wanting excitement, doing things like making Tiloco seem wolfy etc with nightkills, and I can see it potentially having credence, in a case of there not being a whole lot better.

In a lot of ways, your tone in general comes off as a "big man on campus helping the youngins pick up his torch", and that furthers the notion that you could be leading the charge of submissive or fun-seeking wolves.

Something that set off a serious case of the frowny faces to you was #1458 to #1526; that shift is *weird* to me. I regret not bringing attention to it sooner; I'm not sure if anyone else had, sorry if so.


You're my top desire to flip right now I think.

68%



8) blindreper1179

A bit out of order, but I don't think #1821 would be written by a wolf. MAYBE IT WOULD BE AND I'M JUST GIVING HIM TOO MUCH CREDIT, but I really don't think it's wolfy. His next post was #1892 interestingly though, so what *might* have happened in one situation is he said something, screwed up, then hush hushed for a while until it was all over then repent.

#98 kind of left a bit of an impression that you're very aggressive by default this game, and it's seeming like a common thing. If anyone knows whether blind is usually more aggressive as Wolf or Town, whichever is the case, that's probably what he is.

While it could go either way, I almost wouldn't mind flipping you just to cut down on the commotion in the campgrounds. You're null to me, and quite frankly I don't even see much that you're bringing to the table to help town win.

55%



9) Wayward Vagabond

As I've covered already, I feel like a town you would be trying harder. I think you have the capability even though it IS your first game, and you got really defensive when I asked you about it without really intending to work on it, which comes off as a bit wolfy too. I don't think you should get the 1 2 bootaloo today, but I've got eyes for you sunny.

I also think you wouldn't step up to challenge the manti seniorship rule, as I've mentioned earlier in thread, which helps that theory.

47%



10) DaBackPack

I don't think a wolf would have picked up what you did on Tokzic in regards to a potential slip; you're pretty observant. I think DBP is just disinterested, in that his contributions are only EoD. I don't think he's doing it to avoid suspicion, I think he's just busy (still with Eva and such right? Tell her I said hi if so!) and can't offer as much as he'd like.

That said, I think MML and Xiz are contributing more, and Tokzic potentially could too I think and has shown signs to.

The wagons that were for you are a bit weird in my mind.

19%



11) Soundwave-

Everything you've done points to wolfy, but flipping you wouldn't really do anything. I'd rather save this vote for when there's nobody else who comes off as wolf. You're kind of like DBP except you haven't given us that big *wow* factor of actually trying.

One thing I'll say though, is your comment of being unable to summarize what people have said this game is similar to my problem, so you might just be having a hard time as I largely am; everyone's walking on eggshells due to the SPOOKY MYSTERY GAME I think.

Still leaning you wolf though lol, but you've made me laugh a few times this game with your quips so there's that going for you!

50%





POST-EDIT: I got a bit lazy to the end I realized, I did go over everything but I think I focused a bit much on some people relative to others; if you want me to focus more on anything let me know ya

Alot of these early post don't read as confident and are really boring compared to DPB....



Man if it's really down to DPB vs Cel it's clear that DBP looks way better.

[inDheart]

Re: TWG CLXVII Game Thread How Was Awakening Reviewed

i would like to hear more opinions on the 3p question i posed - if people think we should prioritize looking for a 3p today just numbers wise, then that's where i want to spend my time

[inDheart]

Re: TWG CLXVII Game Thread How Was Awakening Reviewed

someone threw out a bunch of my food and i'm pissed

so that's been fun

[Xiz]

Re: TWG CLXVII Game Thread How Was Awakening Reviewed

dbp hi dbp