TWG 203 Werewolves in Avalon GAME THREAD

[Charu]

Originally Posted by roundbox

Charu's vote on manti:

right off the bat, Charu suspects Manti for his vote movement. He was the first person in the the thread to call out manti specifically for this, as bugkid really only looked at the post about 4/4 votes that I mentioned in my other breakdown. it's a fair thing to call out manti on, so credit to Charu here



Charu responds to manti's answer to bug's question about the KITB stuff, and posits that manti might have made a vote swap as a wolf since FFA or jub3r7 was on the list (Charu makes it unclear here), but my problem with this is the fact that he brought up this list. the only people that can benefit from this list (and this list will NEVER be confirmed to the thread until post game) are the wolves, so any talk about it is anti-town tbh



continuing, Charu affirms his suspicion on Manti, but comments that MML might be a bit too tunnely



Charu responds to MML about why he suspects manti, and this is Charu's response. It follows his logic earlier just for the flip flopping.



Charu notes this before any votes (maybe MML, but not bugkid for sure) are placed on Manti to try to support the validity of his argument. Charu floats the idea that Manti might just be TWTBAW immediately afterwards. There's something about this post that I will come back to in a later point, so keep reading pls



Charu suspects WV and votes him! Whoa! but the only comment is "not a fan of their reentrance"
no, I'm not judging you for being unable to multi-quote, but I don't really feel like this is specific enough about his reentrace. Was he too cocky? Jovial? I don't know.



This is how he responded when pressed on his WV vote by MML. "Voting him to see what others feel"
seems wack and makes this vote feel toothless

Here's three posts (the only ones) I could find between Charu and WV:







I understand that Charu has suspicion on WV, but I don't understand anything past that point.
And also, demerits to both Charu and WV for talking about merlins and the list! The best way to win the game is to vote wolves, not think about a mechanic that will not be confirmed until the end of the game



This is Charu's response to Manti getting heated about MML. He has another post like this, but it is of the same substance and not worth quoting



Next, Charu moves on to see if jub3r7 can get traction. Nicely though, unlike WV, he's specific about the part of jub3r7's posting that he finds odd. He does this without voting.



Charu responds to Manti calling him a wolf. I don't really see the reactionary shtick anymore, and I feel like Charu is more of a "throw something at the wall to see what sticks" kind of approach here.



Charu reaffirms his suspicion on Manti for his EOD behavior.



Like the WV vote, he drops a vote on raeko (joining my joke vote) without being terribly specific about why. I think his response to this is much worse than his defense of the WV vote. Here it is:







Was he trying to see if Manti moved his vote? He didn't really say aside from being curious. Where have I heard the "let's see how things go?" before?



ruh roh (also, while I'm quoting this post, notice how manti put the vote into a KITB only to force it the other way later)



Charu backs off and votes Manti, citing their belief in MML being town. MML not being town wasn't really under question by anyone but Manti and myself. He doesn't mention Manti's flip flop voting, which is odd since he brought it up twice in his previous posts about suspecting Manti.



I don't know who he's responding to here (bug, wv, and jub3r7 were talking about alternative wagon targets for a moment), but he ends by saying it's time to solve the thunderdome. He didn't really say it needed to be solved (unless I missed it), so it's a partial contradiction by omission for his reasoning.

I don't think Charu's vote on Manti is very good. After he notes that Freezin, bug, MML, and himself are all pretty united about Manti being a wolf, he uses his time to find other voting avenues in WV and Raeko. He floats jub3r7 as a potential, but never goes as far as to voting him. Raeko's vote looks worse because of his reasoning and its timing (WV one was far from EOD). bug's vote looks better than charu's vote, but let's see the other voters!

You're stinky.

[roundbox]

WV's vote on Manti:

Originally Posted by Wayward Vagabond

Is it going to happen? Iuno maybe

wv quotes his own early game point, suspecting that manti might be wolfing. He wasn't really suspecting manti until this post, as he scumread Charu and MML as wolves at the end of the previous phase. Why is he suspecting Manti now? we don't know

Originally Posted by Wayward Vagabond

They're posts read from the point of view of someone who has been keeping up with the thread.


Mantis x jub x ????

I have a huge suspicion brewing in my pants

After making several posts being putting suspicion on jub3r7, WV puts manti into his list of wolves. Still, don't know what his problem is with Manti.

Originally Posted by Wayward Vagabond

I can't tell if MML is being reasonable because he's a wolf or not


Manti lynch over MML if I'm cooking the bacon right

It looks like his problem is the Manti/MML stuff. I don't know what kind of bacon you're cooking with here, my dude.

Originally Posted by Wayward Vagabond

Heh this didn't age well at all. Spoiled p quickly actually

again, just quoting manti from earlier ("chances on me forgetting about this game?"), and throwing suspicion on him without doing anything but coasting with MML it seems

Originally Posted by Wayward Vagabond

Am i correct in assuming that it would be in the wolves best interest to push the lynch towards the players that aren't in their 5 player list

here's the demerited post from the last post I did. I'm only mentioning it here for context

Originally Posted by Wayward Vagabond

So you mentioned earlier in this day that we jive but never really went further into it than that. Has your opinion changed and can you actually explain why you're cool with me when so many others are not

he asks Manti why he was reading WV as town (I think if I understand this post correctly). He seems to have a problem with Manti giving him such a free townread.

Originally Posted by Wayward Vagabond

Why would you think someone would jump at the last minute? What were you expecting to happen? Who did you think was the most likely to jump?

here's a post that seems to be digging into Manti for his vote. It's not directly pointing a finger of suspicion, but it kind of looks like it. It's at least more specific than his other posts, but WV still seems to be sitting at the shores of prying into Manti.

Originally Posted by Wayward Vagabond

1: FreezinIce - soft town
2: flashflash account Town, Died d0 - I was wrong rip FFA you didn't get to town read me once
3: mellonxcollie (Raeko) - light wolf
4: bugkid666 - medium town
5: roundbox - null
6: Wayward Vagabond - literally the town
7: Jub3r7 - medium wolf
8: MixMasterLar - light town
9: Shadow_God_10 (Lewdy) - rip lewdy
10: Charu (big bird) - soft town
11: DarkManticoreX2 - literally power wolf I called it don't @ me

calls Manti a power wolf. y tho

Originally Posted by Wayward Vagabond

Get better duder also i don't disagree with your vote on manti

agrees with freezin in a weird way. saying "don't disagree" sounds like he's avoiding saying "I dig your vote," but I might be overthinking

Originally Posted by Wayward Vagabond

Can I be the counter wagon if there isn't going to be one

Intent to vote manti for self prez

what kind of post is this

Originally Posted by Wayward Vagabond

Are you in the same camp as freezin where the flip of one resolves the other

after making many posts wolfreading jub3r7, he asks me about my MML vote in relation to Manti. it's his only manti related post in a few posts.

Originally Posted by Wayward Vagabond

You see that's because back in his day you could get tons of info from all the vote switches happening

here's a snarky dig into Manti. he suggests that the voteswapping is what the powerwolfing is all about. I wish you would have been more outward and said it??

Originally Posted by Wayward Vagabond

I'm sticking with my manti vote like I mentioned I would before

Originally Posted by Wayward Vagabond

manti

he makes this last two posts and votes manti.

WV's progression is odd to me. He implies his problem with Manti without directly saying it, and spends lots of his time reading into Jub3r7's posts. It appears that the vote swapping is the thing that waved red flags for WV, but he doesn't outwardly state it until the very end (unless I missed a crucial post). He suspects lots of other people but delivers on voting manti over everything else. He's not putting his vote on people like Charu was, so I'll give him some points over Charu, but this vote looks pretty weird even if I've been liking WV otherwise

[roundbox]

Jub3r7's vote on Manti (also, I'm bored of capitalizing every J and M so bear with me OK??)

Originally Posted by Jub3r7

I still haven't recollected them. I think the wolves are wv, MML and freezinIce but who knows~

the day starts off and jub3r7 posts a few potential suspects

Originally Posted by Jub3r7

Good post! Except for the manti over mml read I still don't understand that

he soft defends manti, but nothing too spicy

Originally Posted by Jub3r7

Maybe I'm biased but when I saw the flip vote by Manti which saved my life I didn't think it was suspicious at the time because he was taking his vote off of me! But Charu's reasoning is a lot more clear. Could be confirmation bias but it definitely doesn't feel like a wolf play to switch from one town to another town at the last second.

On the other hand, every time I read MML's posts I really struggle to find points of common ground.

jub3r7 considers that he might be positively reading Manti for voting in his favor, because if jub3r7 is town, from his perspective, he knows the wagon was t/t. he feels that MML is not too towny because they don't agree on certain points

he does a big post responding to MML after this

Originally Posted by Jub3r7

you know what heck it, i'll make a reads list in a little bit. I want to reread cause there are some people I *should* have opinions on but don't (not because they're null but because they felt *generally* town and stopped paying attention to them afterwards).

Originally Posted by Jub3r7

^that's mostly about manti. He said things that I thought were town early on and then I started paying less attention because of it. Roundbox is one of the people I hard TR but I want to reread for him too just in case

he makes this post, saying that he's going to reevaluate his stance on manti. at this time, manti had 3 votes, so this could be jub3r7 reaching for a reason to join the manti wagon

Originally Posted by Jub3r7

That's why I'm looking at T/T which leaves like, wv, raeko and freezin. Or roundbox if you TR one of those three

he comments that manti/MML are likely T/T from his current reads

Originally Posted by Jub3r7

And if you're both town then what should be done

jub3r7 looks off wagon again like in his previous post, fearing t/t, but not really saying much about Manti and more about MML. he wants people to vote WV

Originally Posted by Jub3r7

What if mml is just a really good wolf

if jub3r7 is wolfing and defending Manti with this, dang, that's Doritos Bold™

Originally Posted by Jub3r7

But if we lynch one then the other and they're both town we lose

this logic applies to any T/T, and I don't feel like jub3r7 did enough reading into manti (or at least posting in the thread about manti) to justify their vote yet. I'm still reading through, so let's see if this changes at all.

Originally Posted by Jub3r7

I might change my vote at some point in the next 10m, at the risk of doing a manti

???

Originally Posted by Jub3r7

I'll hammer the insta since it's over anyway. DarkManticore

and here we arrive at the vote. it doesn't mean anything since WV already hammered. I'd put jub3r7's vote below WV's, but I'd say this for my voting breakdown.

fine: bugkid
weird: WV
funky, and not in a good way: Charu, jub3r7

[MixMasterLar]

My top town not reading my post because it's too long IN A GAME THATS ENTIRELY READING POSTS is demotivating as fuck like come on

I was considering a vote for Phase Extension so I could have time to actually go through all of Day 2 later but if people are just going to scroll down and only pay attention to the bottom line then here

Roundbox -> Raeko -> Jub/Charu

There save everybody some precious time so they don't have to actually play the game -_-

[bugkid666]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

My top town not reading my post because it's too long IN A GAME THATS ENTIRELY READING POSTS is demotivating as fuck like come on

PEE PEE POO POO!!!!!!!!!

[bugkid666]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

My top town not reading my post because it's too long IN A GAME THATS ENTIRELY READING POSTS is demotivating as fuck like come on

I was considering a vote for Phase Extension so I could have time to actually go through all of Day 2 later but if people are just going to scroll down and only pay attention to the bottom line then here

Roundbox -> Raeko -> Jub/Charu

There save everybody some precious time so they don't have to actually play the game -_-

i read your posts and responded. i also sincerely hope you feel better. the post-thanksgiving bloat is real

[Charu]

I mean... I read it............

It was bug that said they didn't!

[bugkid666]

Originally Posted by Charu

I mean... I read it............

It was bug that said they didn't!

im his townie bffl so he's butthurt that i don't wanna read his thesis paper on mobile

and tbh he's right to say it, if i put effort into a post i would threaten violence on those who refuse to engage with it. brb in 5 hours

[Charu]

I'm cool for an extension. By the looks of it, no one did visit the thread during the holiday, which is completely understandable!

Made my sister cry to show I could walk a little.

[bugkid666]

Originally Posted by Charu

Made my sister cry to show I could walk a little.

i'm not crying, YOU'RE crying

[roundbox]

I'm back

[bugkid666]

Originally Posted by roundbox

I'm back

more in-depth analysis of each player on manti wagon would be helpful. vainly, i enjoyed your deep dive into me (don't take that out of context)

[mellon_collie]

I'd be down for an extension... I was thinking the same thing because I basically missed all of yesterday as well

[bugkid666]

im personally not into an extension because literally nobody posted yesterday anyways

[MixMasterLar]

<3 Charu. Glad it's getting better

Bug if you want to solve Raeko this phase I'll bless that lynch but I do think Round is a solid hit

[bugkid666]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

Bug if you want to solve Raeko this phase I'll bless that lynch but I do think Round is a solid hit

i don't think you can sell me on rb today. his presence today is significantly better than before which i think is normal for him near end of game. i might be tunneling on raeko here but i don't care. if she comes up as town, then you have full permission to target rb more specifically tomorrow.

i don't see a world where they are both wolves considering todays interactions between the two of them.

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by bugkid666

i don't think you can sell me on rb today

If your defense of him is that he's finally posting more now when he has every chance to do it before but waited until his #1 flip wolf then that's such an unconvincing argument when place against my D0 reread. Period.

Originally Posted by bugkid666

i don't see a world where they are both wolves considering todays interactions between the two of them.

Please explain this in further detail. I don't really see what you're seeing here

[bugkid666]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

If your defense of him is that he's finally posting more now when he has every chance to do it before but waited until his #1 flip wolf then that's such an unconvincing argument when place against my D0 reread. Period.

this really isn't the reason why. i'm not trying to defend him, because his track record is not good in this game.

it's the quality of trying to actually puzzle out the thought process of each person who voted for manti that is interesting to me. the "did it come from nowhere or did it come from actual theorizing" mentality is something i don't see coming from a wolf who still has a partner in the game. maybe a lone wolf, but not at this stage of the game do i see wolf roundbox scrambling like this.

i don't want to make it seem like i'm pushing for a rb/raeko duel because i'm really not. they just seem to be the two most in discussion atm. i would actually love to resolve jub today much more than roundbox. (i've been curious about jub since the beginning and i really did not like his manti vote)

i'm keeping my vote on raeko for now

[MixMasterLar]

I brought up an extension because I'm probably overvaluing people wanting me to go through the whole game again. In reality no one seems to care so w/e

I got my targets, if people are already set on theirs there is no benefit to dragging the game out

[MixMasterLar]

Look credit where it's due Round's pretty correct on Charu there

Still voting Round