TWG 203 Werewolves in Avalon GAME THREAD

[Charu]

Anyways, to answer some of rounds stuff.

My suspicion of Wayward was mostly his style of posts that was skirting the joke/serious realm. I didn't know if he meant some things or was just being a goober.

My vote on Raeko wasn't even because I thought she was suspect. I literally wanted to see what the thread hive mind had to say if they saw a potential wagon on her. It wasn't me throwing a vote for the lulz.

Speaking of, I really don't jive with her stating she's gonna wait and see you do these vote analysis. That made me instantly go "huh" because I thought she didn't suspect you. It's not until this phase she does anyways.

[Charu]

Actually, yknow what?

Raeko

[mellon_collie]

Originally Posted by Charu

Actually, yknow what?

Raeko

Rude!

I wanted to wait and see what his next analysis looked like in comparison to his first to see if it seemed like he was coming to legitimate conclusions or if it seemed like he was making stuff up

I didn't really suspect him before this phase. But at this point of the game given last EOD obviously I am going to suspect him at least a bit and want to see what he's got to say

[roundbox]

WV's vote on Manti:

Originally Posted by Wayward Vagabond

Is it going to happen? Iuno maybe

wv quotes his own early game point, suspecting that manti might be wolfing. He wasn't really suspecting manti until this post, as he scumread Charu and MML as wolves at the end of the previous phase. Why is he suspecting Manti now? we don't know

Originally Posted by Wayward Vagabond

They're posts read from the point of view of someone who has been keeping up with the thread.


Mantis x jub x ????

I have a huge suspicion brewing in my pants

After making several posts being putting suspicion on jub3r7, WV puts manti into his list of wolves. Still, don't know what his problem is with Manti.

Originally Posted by Wayward Vagabond

I can't tell if MML is being reasonable because he's a wolf or not


Manti lynch over MML if I'm cooking the bacon right

It looks like his problem is the Manti/MML stuff. I don't know what kind of bacon you're cooking with here, my dude.

Originally Posted by Wayward Vagabond

Heh this didn't age well at all. Spoiled p quickly actually

again, just quoting manti from earlier ("chances on me forgetting about this game?"), and throwing suspicion on him without doing anything but coasting with MML it seems

Originally Posted by Wayward Vagabond

Am i correct in assuming that it would be in the wolves best interest to push the lynch towards the players that aren't in their 5 player list

here's the demerited post from the last post I did. I'm only mentioning it here for context

Originally Posted by Wayward Vagabond

So you mentioned earlier in this day that we jive but never really went further into it than that. Has your opinion changed and can you actually explain why you're cool with me when so many others are not

he asks Manti why he was reading WV as town (I think if I understand this post correctly). He seems to have a problem with Manti giving him such a free townread.

Originally Posted by Wayward Vagabond

Why would you think someone would jump at the last minute? What were you expecting to happen? Who did you think was the most likely to jump?

here's a post that seems to be digging into Manti for his vote. It's not directly pointing a finger of suspicion, but it kind of looks like it. It's at least more specific than his other posts, but WV still seems to be sitting at the shores of prying into Manti.

Originally Posted by Wayward Vagabond

1: FreezinIce - soft town
2: flashflash account Town, Died d0 - I was wrong rip FFA you didn't get to town read me once
3: mellonxcollie (Raeko) - light wolf
4: bugkid666 - medium town
5: roundbox - null
6: Wayward Vagabond - literally the town
7: Jub3r7 - medium wolf
8: MixMasterLar - light town
9: Shadow_God_10 (Lewdy) - rip lewdy
10: Charu (big bird) - soft town
11: DarkManticoreX2 - literally power wolf I called it don't @ me

calls Manti a power wolf. y tho

Originally Posted by Wayward Vagabond

Get better duder also i don't disagree with your vote on manti

agrees with freezin in a weird way. saying "don't disagree" sounds like he's avoiding saying "I dig your vote," but I might be overthinking

Originally Posted by Wayward Vagabond

Can I be the counter wagon if there isn't going to be one

Intent to vote manti for self prez

what kind of post is this

Originally Posted by Wayward Vagabond

Are you in the same camp as freezin where the flip of one resolves the other

after making many posts wolfreading jub3r7, he asks me about my MML vote in relation to Manti. it's his only manti related post in a few posts.

Originally Posted by Wayward Vagabond

You see that's because back in his day you could get tons of info from all the vote switches happening

here's a snarky dig into Manti. he suggests that the voteswapping is what the powerwolfing is all about. I wish you would have been more outward and said it??

Originally Posted by Wayward Vagabond

I'm sticking with my manti vote like I mentioned I would before

Originally Posted by Wayward Vagabond

manti

he makes this last two posts and votes manti.

WV's progression is odd to me. He implies his problem with Manti without directly saying it, and spends lots of his time reading into Jub3r7's posts. It appears that the vote swapping is the thing that waved red flags for WV, but he doesn't outwardly state it until the very end (unless I missed a crucial post). He suspects lots of other people but delivers on voting manti over everything else. He's not putting his vote on people like Charu was, so I'll give him some points over Charu, but this vote looks pretty weird even if I've been liking WV otherwise

[bugkid666]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

Bug if you want to solve Raeko this phase I'll bless that lynch but I do think Round is a solid hit

i don't think you can sell me on rb today. his presence today is significantly better than before which i think is normal for him near end of game. i might be tunneling on raeko here but i don't care. if she comes up as town, then you have full permission to target rb more specifically tomorrow.

i don't see a world where they are both wolves considering todays interactions between the two of them.

[MixMasterLar]

2 hours until EOD
I think I'm at peace letting the phase end

[bugkid666]

Originally Posted by mellon_collie

This is... very detailed and specific

I can get it from a town point of view analyzing a wagon. But I could also see a wolf using this as a way to overly "analyze"

Gonna wait and see how your posts about the other voters seem

this for example is far too wishy washy when responding to wolfRoundbox. i don't think one wolf says this to another.

i'm only harping on rb/raeko as a potential w/t solve because someone else mentioned it earlier... maybe charu? i can't remember

[Wayward Vagabond]

Extension would be great. I unfortunately won't be here for eod or much at all from not until then

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by bugkid666

i don't think you can sell me on rb today

If your defense of him is that he's finally posting more now when he has every chance to do it before but waited until his #1 flip wolf then that's such an unconvincing argument when place against my D0 reread. Period.

Originally Posted by bugkid666

i don't see a world where they are both wolves considering todays interactions between the two of them.

Please explain this in further detail. I don't really see what you're seeing here

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by bugkid666

this for example is far too wishy washy when responding to wolfRoundbox. i don't think one wolf says this to another.

i'm only harping on rb/raeko as a potential w/t solve because someone else mentioned it earlier... maybe charu? i can't remember

I don't see this especially if they need to oppose each other for future reads. I think TownRaeko wouldn't have even been this active after lynching a wolf and I think Round's entire first day was fake+his second day was intentionally him avoiding any deep dives on Manti. I don't see how Raeko posting this makes them not w/w most wolf teams I've been on are way spicier then this

Originally Posted by Wayward Vagabond

Extension would be great. I unfortunately won't be here for eod or much at all from not until then

You're here now: leave us some reads and make a vote

[MixMasterLar]

Actually Bug I think I misread you in Raeko your point isn't that she's questioning him it's that she's too lukewarm

I don't know if that changes my conclusion though but noted that you think the two wolves would be more aggro with each other right now, I definitely see that point

[roundbox]

Jub3r7's vote on Manti (also, I'm bored of capitalizing every J and M so bear with me OK??)

Originally Posted by Jub3r7

I still haven't recollected them. I think the wolves are wv, MML and freezinIce but who knows~

the day starts off and jub3r7 posts a few potential suspects

Originally Posted by Jub3r7

Good post! Except for the manti over mml read I still don't understand that

he soft defends manti, but nothing too spicy

Originally Posted by Jub3r7

Maybe I'm biased but when I saw the flip vote by Manti which saved my life I didn't think it was suspicious at the time because he was taking his vote off of me! But Charu's reasoning is a lot more clear. Could be confirmation bias but it definitely doesn't feel like a wolf play to switch from one town to another town at the last second.

On the other hand, every time I read MML's posts I really struggle to find points of common ground.

jub3r7 considers that he might be positively reading Manti for voting in his favor, because if jub3r7 is town, from his perspective, he knows the wagon was t/t. he feels that MML is not too towny because they don't agree on certain points

he does a big post responding to MML after this

Originally Posted by Jub3r7

you know what heck it, i'll make a reads list in a little bit. I want to reread cause there are some people I *should* have opinions on but don't (not because they're null but because they felt *generally* town and stopped paying attention to them afterwards).

Originally Posted by Jub3r7

^that's mostly about manti. He said things that I thought were town early on and then I started paying less attention because of it. Roundbox is one of the people I hard TR but I want to reread for him too just in case

he makes this post, saying that he's going to reevaluate his stance on manti. at this time, manti had 3 votes, so this could be jub3r7 reaching for a reason to join the manti wagon

Originally Posted by Jub3r7

That's why I'm looking at T/T which leaves like, wv, raeko and freezin. Or roundbox if you TR one of those three

he comments that manti/MML are likely T/T from his current reads

Originally Posted by Jub3r7

And if you're both town then what should be done

jub3r7 looks off wagon again like in his previous post, fearing t/t, but not really saying much about Manti and more about MML. he wants people to vote WV

Originally Posted by Jub3r7

What if mml is just a really good wolf

if jub3r7 is wolfing and defending Manti with this, dang, that's Doritos Bold™

Originally Posted by Jub3r7

But if we lynch one then the other and they're both town we lose

this logic applies to any T/T, and I don't feel like jub3r7 did enough reading into manti (or at least posting in the thread about manti) to justify their vote yet. I'm still reading through, so let's see if this changes at all.

Originally Posted by Jub3r7

I might change my vote at some point in the next 10m, at the risk of doing a manti

???

Originally Posted by Jub3r7

I'll hammer the insta since it's over anyway. DarkManticore

and here we arrive at the vote. it doesn't mean anything since WV already hammered. I'd put jub3r7's vote below WV's, but I'd say this for my voting breakdown.

fine: bugkid
weird: WV
funky, and not in a good way: Charu, jub3r7

[bugkid666]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

Actually Bug I think I misread you in Raeko your point isn't that she's questioning him it's that she's too lukewarm

I don't know if that changes my conclusion though but noted that you think the two wolves would be more aggro with each other right now, I definitely see that point

yes, this is the point i was trying to make

[mellon_collie]

I kinda like round's analysis posts for the most part

I think his WV one is the weakest

I would like to look again at Jub 3r7 some of his posts earlier today were pretty whack

[Charu]

A basic reads list as of this moment,

Town

MixMasterLar
roundbox
bugkid666

Mid

Jub3r7
Wayward Vagabond

Wolf

mellonxcollie (Raeko)

...

...

Really that ONE POST she did made me see her red, I'm sorry. She was mid to me all game until now. Otherwise I would've voted for Jub

[bugkid666]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

If your defense of him is that he's finally posting more now when he has every chance to do it before but waited until his #1 flip wolf then that's such an unconvincing argument when place against my D0 reread. Period.

this really isn't the reason why. i'm not trying to defend him, because his track record is not good in this game.

it's the quality of trying to actually puzzle out the thought process of each person who voted for manti that is interesting to me. the "did it come from nowhere or did it come from actual theorizing" mentality is something i don't see coming from a wolf who still has a partner in the game. maybe a lone wolf, but not at this stage of the game do i see wolf roundbox scrambling like this.

i don't want to make it seem like i'm pushing for a rb/raeko duel because i'm really not. they just seem to be the two most in discussion atm. i would actually love to resolve jub today much more than roundbox. (i've been curious about jub since the beginning and i really did not like his manti vote)

i'm keeping my vote on raeko for now

[mellon_collie]

Originally Posted by Charu

Wolf

mellonxcollie (Raeko)

...

...

Really that ONE POST she did made me see her red, I'm sorry. She was mid to me all game until now. Otherwise I would've voted for Jub

If this is seriously the only reason, I don't even know. I can kind of see it with bugkid's "gut feeling" and other reasoning but from you this just seems like piggybacking *shruggie*

[bugkid666]

Originally Posted by Charu

A basic reads list as of this moment,

Town

MixMasterLar
roundbox
bugkid666

Mid

Jub3r7
Wayward Vagabond

Wolf

mellonxcollie (Raeko)

...

...

Really that ONE POST she did made me see her red, I'm sorry. She was mid to me all game until now. Otherwise I would've voted for Jub

charu... could we be... mindmelding?

note that this is my exact reads list except replace me with charu

and since i could be LyiNg i guess you'll have to take this with a grain of salt but i would never agree with charu unless i meant it from the very depths of my soul

[Charu]

Piggybacking what?

[mellon_collie]

Originally Posted by Charu

Piggybacking what?

bugkid just gave very similar reasoning for suspecting me so I meant piggybacking off bug's read