[Concluded] The FFR AAAdvent Calendar - Page 16

**gold stinger** · 12-20-2014, 01:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rushyrulz

(1:2500).

I'm going to do a graph of how you're using random.org to determine outcomes.

**rushyrulz** · 12-20-2014, 01:58 PM

ok have fun. It's always fun to have the participants figure it out rather than just outright saying the probabilities anyway.

**Sniper12345S** · 12-20-2014, 02:47 PM

Man, I haven't been good at keeping up with the AAAdvent. Anyways. Merry Christmas to you all.

**gold stinger** · 12-20-2014, 02:47 PM

well if you want to post the odds yourself that would be nice too.

**VisD** · 12-20-2014, 03:23 PM

It's probably just (1/50)^2

In fact, it could be kind of entertaining to figure out what the odds of each outcome are with regards to token winnings. There's probably a large enough set of data in this thread to get a good idea...(but i'm too lazy to do it oops)

Deadlyx39 · 12-20-2014, 03:32 PM

Honestly do the odds really matter? It's free. Free to all who worship our one and true lord in the Great Synthlight.

**gold stinger** · 12-20-2014, 03:42 PM

I believe in science not god zing

**rushyrulz** · 12-20-2014, 03:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sniper12345S

Man, I haven't been good at keeping up with the AAAdvent. Anyways. Merry Christmas to you all.

well the problem is you keep posting in the thread instead of PMing the events account. Already sent you a PM explaining what to do :/

**noname219** · 12-20-2014, 04:17 PM

Too lazy to count but it's probably something like :
500 : 12/25
1,000 : 6/25
5,000 : 4/25
10,000 : 2/25
50,000 : 1/25
-
Token (additional roll) : 1/100

edit : forgot that the token was another roll

**ItsOnlyDanO** · 12-20-2014, 04:19 PM

1000 again

back to the shit it seems

**noname219** · 12-20-2014, 05:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VisD

There's probably a large enough set of data in this thread to get a good idea...(but i'm too lazy to do it oops)

After counting, here's the probabilities :
Token : 18/846 ≈ 1/50
50,000 : 9/224 ≈ 1/25 (but I'm guessing it's probably 1/50 instead)
25,000 : 6/224 ≈ 1/37.3
10,000 : 10/224 ≈ 1/22.4
5,000 : 18/224 ≈ 1/12.5
1,000 : 84/224 ≈ 1/2.6
500 : 97/224 ≈ 1/2.3

Mine is 500/1000/500/500/1000/500/5000/1000

**foxfire667** · 12-20-2014, 05:20 PM

Ooh look at all the guesses about the prize probability! I'm glad I decided against posting it alongside the OP, not knowing for sure makes winning all the more entertaining.

Considering the vast number of submissions I'm genuinely curious as to how the actual values will correlate to the probabilities. I think when this is all over putting together a whole bunch of stats will be quite interesting to look at.

Edit: Holy hell I rolled a token! I never roll those!

**Deidara837** · 12-20-2014, 06:14 PM

500 - 500 - 25000 - 500 - 1000 - 500 - 1000 - 500

(╯°□°）╯︵ ┻━┻)

**klimtkiller** · 12-20-2014, 06:42 PM

no token yet. i've never been a lucky guy.

justin_ator · 12-20-2014, 08:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by deidara837

500 - 500 - 25000 - 500 - 1000 - 500 - 1000 - 500

(╯°□°）╯︵ ┻━┻)

500-500-1000-500-500-500-500-1000

\(-_-)/ ...

**Deidara837** · 12-20-2014, 09:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justin_ator

500-500-1000-500-500-500-500-1000

\(-_-)/ ...

I don't actually care much for the creds, the tokens are the real prize

TWWW/Freedom Dive asdhkfbaljfg

**gold stinger** · 12-20-2014, 09:36 PM

I got a token my first day. I wish I could have given it to someone else, but I was given credit compensation instead.

**rushyrulz** · 12-20-2014, 11:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by foxfire667

I think when this is all over putting together a whole bunch of stats will be quite interesting to look at.

I can do that.

**rushyrulz** · 12-21-2014, 12:30 AM

Day 8 stats:

Participants: 120
Credits Awarded: 255,500
Tokens Awarded: 3
Users who have participated in all 8 days: 92

**tosh** · 12-21-2014, 01:23 AM

It was only for one day, but I manipulated FFR AAAdvent Calendar's Desire Sensor.

12-20-2014, 01:58 PM	#302
rushyrulz Digital Dancing! Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: 80 billion club, NE Age: 31 Posts: 12,980	Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar ok have fun. It's always fun to have the participants figure it out rather than just outright saying the probabilities anyway. __________________ Last edited by rushyrulz; 12-20-2014 at 01:59 PM..

12-20-2014, 02:47 PM	#303
Sniper12345S FFR Player Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 4	Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar Man, I haven't been good at keeping up with the AAAdvent. Anyways. Merry Christmas to you all.

12-20-2014, 03:23 PM	#305
VisD FFR Simfile Author Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 1,195	Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar It's probably just (1/50)^2 In fact, it could be kind of entertaining to figure out what the odds of each outcome are with regards to token winnings. There's probably a large enough set of data in this thread to get a good idea...(but i'm too lazy to do it oops) __________________ Last edited by VisD; 12-20-2014 at 03:25 PM..

12-20-2014, 04:17 PM	#309
noname219 FFR Wiki Admin Wiki Administrator Join Date: May 2007 Location: Quebec, Canada Age: 33 Posts: 1,694	Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar Too lazy to count but it's probably something like : 500 : 12/25 1,000 : 6/25 5,000 : 4/25 10,000 : 2/25 50,000 : 1/25 - Token (additional roll) : 1/100 edit : forgot that the token was another roll __________________ FFR Wiki \| Song Corrections Thread \| Permissions List and Information v8 \| Musical Genres Revamp Last edited by noname219; 12-20-2014 at 04:21 PM..

12-20-2014, 04:19 PM	#310
ItsOnlyDanO Stuck in the past Join Date: Oct 2013 Location: Portsmouth, UK Age: 28 Posts: 1,168	Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar 1000 again back to the shit it seems __________________ Ghosts appear and fade away.......

12-20-2014, 05:20 PM	#312
foxfire667 The FFRchiver Join Date: Jun 2009 Location: USA Age: 30 Posts: 2,168	Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar Ooh look at all the guesses about the prize probability! I'm glad I decided against posting it alongside the OP, not knowing for sure makes winning all the more entertaining. Considering the vast number of submissions I'm genuinely curious as to how the actual values will correlate to the probabilities. I think when this is all over putting together a whole bunch of stats will be quite interesting to look at. Edit: Holy hell I rolled a token! I never roll those! __________________ SM pack archiver \| 1.5 Billion Club \| Etterna Online: [Register] Last edited by foxfire667; 12-20-2014 at 06:07 PM.. Reason: +1 token

12-20-2014, 06:14 PM	#313
Deidara837 For a New Beginning Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: New York, United States Age: 28 Posts: 1,752	Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar 500 - 500 - 25000 - 500 - 1000 - 500 - 1000 - 500 (╯°□°）╯︵ ┻━┻) __________________ _9th OT: D2 - 13th Place 10th OT: D5 - 45th Place 11th OT: D6 - 12th Place EMG Rivalry \| EMG Spreadsheet

12-21-2014, 12:30 AM	#319
rushyrulz Digital Dancing! Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: 80 billion club, NE Age: 31 Posts: 12,980	Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar Day 8 stats: Participants: 120 Credits Awarded: 255,500 Tokens Awarded: 3 Users who have participated in all 8 days: 92 __________________

12-21-2014, 01:23 AM	#320
tosh O Derby, Where Art Thou? Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Virginia Age: 32 Posts: 1,011	Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar It was only for one day, but I manipulated FFR AAAdvent Calendar's Desire Sensor. 500 - 1,000 - 1,000 - 1,000 - 5,000 - 500 - 1,000 - 1,000 - 25,000 Last edited by tosh; 12-21-2014 at 01:30 AM..

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