TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

[leetic]

Originally Posted by mellon_collie

very basic early reads:

Lar seems like Lar (what I would expect from his town game)
Haku seems like Haku (what I would expect from their town game)
Bug had the same reaction as I did to the mechanical talk, and I always see that as a good sign

roundbox please make a real post
H&H hello please come back

feeling like I am biased toward town-reading people because I know them, and because I was turned off by the early mechanical talk

so yeah don't really think I will take these reads super seriously but wanted to put something game related out there

Any reason why I'm not listed here?

[mellon_collie]

Yeah I had no idea there was someone named Weiss in this game either whoops

Originally Posted by Hateandhatred

Hey bitches and gentlemen I'm here for real this time though.

I slept in this morning and took care of household stuff but I should be here until EOD with maybe a small break, but yeah

I'm going to catch up on messages, actually am very glad I didn't come back here to 20 pages of d0

I look forward to your thoughts on the game

Bug and Lar still look fine to me so far based on this exchange

[leetic]

Originally Posted by roundbox

On whether or not the Freikugel should call their shot: I'm gonna do some thinking about that

Points in favor of calling their shot
-It's a claim which helps town with raw PoE
-It directly helps the Soul Stealer by providing them information relevant to the weakness of their role
-You'll still kill someone N2 as wolves murder you to death

Points against
-Getting a N3 shot off would be great assuming we have enough players alive at that point, but is that realistic?
-Wolves guarantee a hit on our KP

Let me do some quick math:

D0: 9: 7 town, 2 wolves. If Vengeful pops off, we're down to 7: 6 town 1 wolf is BEST case, 5 town 2 wolf is WORST case.
BEST CASE N1 with Vengeful gone: We win game as Freikugel shoots the last wolf to death.
BETTER CASE N1 with Vengeful gone: Freikugel kills town instead. We're down to 5: 4 town, 1 wolf.
WORST CASE N1 with Vengeful gone: We're down to 5: 3 town, 2 wolf.
D1: Ends in wolf victory or down to 3-1.
N2: Would lead to potential victory if Freikugel is alive and shoots correctly. If Freikugel hits town, game is over.

Assuming Vengeful stays alive until the end and both KPs pop each night:
D0: 7-1 best case, 6-2 worst case.
N1: Victory best case, 5-1 better case, 4-2 worst case.
D1: Victory best case, 4-1 better case, 3-2 worst case.
N2: Victory best case, 1-2 worst case (LOSE), 2-1 case which makes D2 as final voting.

It seems pretty unlikely we'll hit a third night phase unless wolf JOAT pulls off serious plays.

You know what? After running through these scenarios, I think leetic has a decent point. It seems hard to get that far in the game, and it just might benefit us if we're in a worst case D2 with 3 town dead.
That being said, we'll do the math tomorrow when we have the actual flips.

A N3 shot would require consistently low rolls. I won't do the exact calculation but I believe it would be about a 1/8 chance of succeeding (again assuming no Soul Stealer interference). Although a Devil shot may be the only way of winning for town if it goes to F3 at night, though wolves would still be favored to win the roll and I'm not sure if that is a likely position in the first place.

[leetic]

Originally Posted by Arapocalypse

I appreciate your exclamation marks hype as well!!!!!



(Light townread here in general, also I'll be out for a bunch of today; will be back a few hours before EoD though!!!!)

Can you elaborate here?

[leetic]

Originally Posted by bugkid666

can you explain further what you mean by process of elimination? do you mean outcomes or roles?



i like the idea of proposing all of the potential scenarios regarding Freikugel and generally agree that talking mechanics doesn't give much regarding alignment. it's how people talk about mechanics that gives alignment clues. maybe that's a dumb and redundant thought but i figured i'd make it anyways.



this is very typical rb/raeko lmao
raeko: i am saying something for the sake of it
rb: sounds like youre just saying something for the sake of it......
seems t/t



seems general consensus is that Freikugel should announce role after D1? am i reading this entirely wrong?



i agree on this assessment, i dont think a wolf comes straight out the gate with game mechanics and PR hunting publicly lol


sorry for my absence, i don't have a fun excuse i just forgor but i'm here now until EoD!

Basically, the PoE is the number of safe mislynches/vig shots plus the number of wolves. If we have both the wolves in the PoE and shoot exclusively within it, then we win the game. The high amount of town kill power allows for a generous PoE for a game (5 in most scenarios, though four if we want to be super safe)

[mellon_collie]

Originally Posted by leetic

Any reason why I'm not listed here?

Not really those were just quick thoughts it wasn't a comprehensive list

But I can give my thoughts on you now!

I think it was a bit strange to come in very gung-ho right away in the first post of the game talking about strategies for the blues. I feel like it might make sense to feel out the thread first, but you just really wanted to get it out there right away

But you do not seem to be overly focused on mechanics. Outside of that you seem to be engaged with the thread and asking questions. That looks slightly towny to me

[leetic]

Originally Posted by bugkid666

i think the bolded point is something that we should absolutely not forget because not only do i agree but it's also true

going to reread Ara and see how i feel with your perspective in mind

Agreeing with a post that suggests you are a wolf? Granted, this is a pure WIFOM play

[leetic]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

I have definitely seen wolves make these kinds of jokes :thinking:

Like, make them on Champs no less
:thinking: :thinking: :thinking:



Wait who
*Checks*
Oh holy shit we have a player named Weiss in the game lmao I didnt even know

They're a player I pulled from MU, like with Haze from the previous game. If they stay inactive, they'd be an ideal vig shot although ideally they'd show up as we don't want to risk them being a PR.

[leetic]

Originally Posted by Hateandhatred

Hey bitches and gentlemen I'm here for real this time though.

I slept in this morning and took care of household stuff but I should be here until EOD with maybe a small break, but yeah

I'm going to catch up on messages, actually am very glad I didn't come back here to 20 pages of d0

Another post that doesn't really say anything. Please give us more than just saying you'll give us more.

[leetic]

Originally Posted by mellon_collie

Slip. Theory !!!!!!

Is this a joke or do you think there might be something there?

[roundbox]

thread I am coming down with a fever and it's really lame

and yeah, all of my math is completely ignoring the devil shot mechanics

[Hakulyte]

Originally Posted by leetic

Is this a joke or do you think there might be something there?

I'm not mellonxcollie, but bug never rolled wolf before. So, suddenly be wolf for first time might be a stressful experience and might lead to a slip like that.

At least, I can see it happening. The other posts are surprisingly in character tho. This should at least be noted.

[mellon_collie]

Originally Posted by leetic

Is this a joke or do you think there might be something there?

It's half a joke

it's not something I would seriously consider right now but Bug has always rolled town so it is a bit :thonking: that they would accidentally write wolf instead

[mellon_collie]

Originally Posted by roundbox

thread I am coming down with a fever and it's really lame

and yeah, all of my math is completely ignoring the devil shot mechanics

can confirm the fever. I saw the numbers myself

[leetic]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

I'm not mellonxcollie, but bug never rolled wolf before. So, suddenly be wolf for first time might be a stressful experience and might lead to a slip like that.

At least, I can see it happening. The other posts are surprisingly in character tho. This should at least be noted.

It's a bit compplex as the other move of calling attention to someone else suggesting they are wolf does not come without risk, although there are certain players who revel in such plays. If they don't have a wolf meta, then hard to tell either way.

[roundbox]

Originally Posted by mellon_collie

I think it was a bit strange to come in very gung-ho right away in the first post of the game talking about strategies for the blues. I feel like it might make sense to feel out the thread first, but you just really wanted to get it out there right away

aside from shitposting, there isn't much else to discuss since we have no flips, so I mean, it makes sense

I like Lar's analysis of Ara's posting. It feels like the Lar that I want to see.

[roundbox]

I'm going to assume H&H is typing up a post.

I think leetic and lar are trending up for me. Everyone else is hovering around the same place in the middle.

[Hakulyte]

Originally Posted by leetic

It's a bit compplex as the other move of calling attention to someone else suggesting they are wolf does not come without risk, although there are certain players who revel in such plays. If they don't have a wolf meta, then hard to tell either way.

That's a good question, but for bugkid. I shouldn't be the one answering this.

[roundbox]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

That's a good question, but for bugkid. I shouldn't be the one answering this.

who do you like so far this game, Haku?

[MixMasterLar]

Fevers are lame. I've been sick on and off all of 2025. Just finished with strep. Feel better soon, dude

Originally Posted by leetic

Can you elaborate more on the Haku read? I don't think any of their posts are really that difficult to come up with from a wolf perspective. That being said, I understand with my limited experience with them that they tend to come off as wolfy by default.

I don't want to just say "meta read" because that's basically the same as telling you to trust me, but meta read

To add to it, Haku kind of has this try hard, nonsensical vibe about them as wolf that I don't see here
I suppose it isn't a hard town clear if that's the question you're asking but I would have to circle back through the rest of the players before I decided that at this point. Feels like Town Haku

Originally Posted by roundbox

aside from shitposting, there isn't much else to discuss since we have no flips, so I mean, it makes sense.

I'm kind of here, I don't have much to add until we at least have the inactives post/people actually start voting. I'm also low on battery and not home, so you know, might have to go dark until a few hours prior to EOD