TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

[MixMasterLar]

Now live changed to know love

That was a very touching change, auto-correct, but it still makes me sound drunk

[MixMasterLar]

And no I am not counting these as my three post minimum, this is all one post. And I will be judging your post in the same manner when it's time to talk about inactives later

[mellon_collie]

what's up party people

Yeah I was not expecting such serious chat so early either. not gonna lie it was WAY too late for me to read all of that and comprehend it last night but now that it's morning and I've read it I gotta say I mostly agree with Haku in post #19

I think let the blues do their own thing and lets not worry about it too much and potentially influence them. They are town and I believe in them to do the right thing!!!

and of course my dog pooped on the floor as I'm making this post lololol

[mellon_collie]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

Now live changed to know love

That was a very touching change, auto-correct, but it still makes me sound drunk

ITS DESTINY IT'S L O V E

[mellon_collie]

Originally Posted by Arapocalypse

(Personally I have basically zero alignment thoughts on leetic so far, this mechanics stuff doesn't really mean much either way!!!)

somebody in TWG once asked me why I use so many exclamation marks!!! I was like SORRY FOR BEING GENKI!!!

This is to say, I appreciate the enthusiasm!!!

[FreezinIce]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

EOD isn't today so lolololol

Host added context: EOD is in fact today, in approximately 12.5 hours

====

No votes have been cast.

[roundbox]

twig

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

Host added context: EOD is in fact today, in approximately 12.5 hours

====

No votes have been cast.

Host has been most kind this day

I will stay up and be present this EoD, and this EoD alone

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by mellon_collie

ITS DESTINY IT'S L O V E

MixMasterLar likes this post

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by roundbox

twig

MixMasterLar dislikes this post

[mellon_collie]

very basic early reads:

Lar seems like Lar (what I would expect from his town game)
Haku seems like Haku (what I would expect from their town game)
Bug had the same reaction as I did to the mechanical talk, and I always see that as a good sign

roundbox please make a real post
H&H hello please come back

feeling like I am biased toward town-reading people because I know them, and because I was turned off by the early mechanical talk

so yeah don't really think I will take these reads super seriously but wanted to put something game related out there

[roundbox]

Originally Posted by leetic

Wolves' biggest advantage over town in setups like these is coordination, and it seems foolish to extend the gap even further. This game also may not even last to D3 and the Freikugel is realistically only getting two shots off, as I pointed out earlier. Nevertheless, enough people have posted that you should find something to gravitate to.

I agree with this insofar as having a suggested strategy town develops in thread, but I think letting the blues decide which powers to use is a slightly better version. Basically, I don't want people saying "Hey Freikugel, you should specifically use your ninja ability tonight" because that's obviously foolish.

One thing that's extremely important is that everyone needs to be voting someone at the end of the day. I don't think it'll happen in this thread since I'm assuming people are excited to play TWG, but if you've gotta miss EOD, it's a waste if you don't. Vengeful shooting nobody is a net negative for town.

I agree that Freikugel should shoot someone tonight. The first one is free even if the soul stealer uses their ability today (which you'd have to be pretty damn confident to use that this phase).

I don't know if I have any good reads on anyone in particular, but I don't think Haku's posting is suspect as of yet. I'd say I'm at a happy medium between Haku and leetic's positions.

[roundbox]

Originally Posted by mellon_collie

=roundbox please make a real post

so yeah don't really think I will take these reads super seriously but wanted to put something game related out there

1. as if I wouldn't

2. this seems like you're posting for the sake of posting. none of your reads really advance, so it just feels like you're spinning into the mud.

[mellon_collie]

Originally Posted by roundbox

1. as if I wouldn't

2. this seems like you're posting for the sake of posting. none of your reads really advance, so it just feels like you're spinning into the mud.

I mean kinda? I specified that in my post that they weren't super serious reads... seems like you're calling me out for something I already called myself out for lol

[roundbox]

On whether or not the Freikugel should call their shot: I'm gonna do some thinking about that

Points in favor of calling their shot
-It's a claim which helps town with raw PoE
-It directly helps the Soul Stealer by providing them information relevant to the weakness of their role
-You'll still kill someone N2 as wolves murder you to death

Points against
-Getting a N3 shot off would be great assuming we have enough players alive at that point, but is that realistic?
-Wolves guarantee a hit on our KP

Let me do some quick math:

D0: 9: 7 town, 2 wolves. If Vengeful pops off, we're down to 7: 6 town 1 wolf is BEST case, 5 town 2 wolf is WORST case.
BEST CASE N1 with Vengeful gone: We win game as Freikugel shoots the last wolf to death.
BETTER CASE N1 with Vengeful gone: Freikugel kills town instead. We're down to 5: 4 town, 1 wolf.
WORST CASE N1 with Vengeful gone: We're down to 5: 3 town, 2 wolf.
D1: Ends in wolf victory or down to 3-1.
N2: Would lead to potential victory if Freikugel is alive and shoots correctly. If Freikugel hits town, game is over.

Assuming Vengeful stays alive until the end and both KPs pop each night:
D0: 7-1 best case, 6-2 worst case.
N1: Victory best case, 5-1 better case, 4-2 worst case.
D1: Victory best case, 4-1 better case, 3-2 worst case.
N2: Victory best case, 1-2 worst case (LOSE), 2-1 case which makes D2 as final voting.

It seems pretty unlikely we'll hit a third night phase unless wolf JOAT pulls off serious plays.

You know what? After running through these scenarios, I think leetic has a decent point. It seems hard to get that far in the game, and it just might benefit us if we're in a worst case D2 with 3 town dead.
That being said, we'll do the math tomorrow when we have the actual flips.

[Arapocalypse]

Hyped to see the thread's picked up a bit!!!!!

I feel like MixMasterLar's got the towniest opening by far; just feels incredibly casually towny!!!! Feels like he's got no secret agenda in his back pocket, just putting whatever thoughts he's got rolling around in a town head out there; generally very towny vibes and stuff to ease into the game/get stuff rolling!!!! Also congrats on getting engaged!!!!!!!

While I didn't feel like Haku's posting earlier was as obviously towny as others seem to be picking up, since people are referencing meta there and I didn't feel bad about the posting, I'm comfy putting them in the light towns pile to start with!!

Also not going to lie, bit relieved others have a less-serious reaction to mechanics; while I do enjoy digging into mechanics a bit, I don't enjoy games being only mech-focused; mainly was just there without other stuff to bounce off of!!!!!

[roundbox]

Had this game 11 players, I'd be less willing to take the stance of Freikugel claiming tomorrow.

[Arapocalypse]

Originally Posted by mellon_collie

somebody in TWG once asked me why I use so many exclamation marks!!! I was like SORRY FOR BEING GENKI!!!

This is to say, I appreciate the enthusiasm!!!

I appreciate your exclamation marks hype as well!!!!!



(Light townread here in general, also I'll be out for a bunch of today; will be back a few hours before EoD though!!!!)

[MixMasterLar]

Yeah, I definitely don't want town trying to micromanage our PRs so I agree with Roundbox there

[mellon_collie]

Originally Posted by roundbox

That being said, we'll do the math tomorrow when we have the actual flips.

This is what I'm saying