TWG CLXXIX: The Third FE Mystery Game Game Thread

[Charu]

Xelicopter, since your one of the few that didn't show for both of the ITA's, where were you?

[jessiebessie]

Originally Posted by Charu

Xelicopter, since your one of the few that didn't show for both of the ITA's, where were you?

This. We coulda used your shot, Xel. :/

[Precarious]

Fine, kill me then. You can kill FFA tomorrow, and tell yourselves "Oh, Prec did this and that, how could we have known?"

His argument is legitimately terrible.

Originally Posted by flashflash account

precarious was first in the shot order

his optimal play as either alignment is to claim a role to avoid dying before me

after he claims, the shot order is moved to me first

my optimal play as either alignment is to claim a role to try killing precarious before me
because
I know my own alignment, I don't know precarious'. Given his role claim, I think it was beneficial to try getting him killed before me, because if he's town, we both die anyway (due to the shot order favoring freezin)

had precarious died and flipped JOAT, I still would have rescinded my claim as it still had done its job

Everything he says about himself and me applies equally in reverse. He even goes so far as to acknowledge that my best play--regardless of alignment--would be to make up a role. But that's fucking stupid. It's not. My best play as town is to tell the truth, because if someone lies, even after the fact, there will always be a what if. And given that I know both my alignment and role, saying nothing would be fucking stupid.

FFA's behavior is nowhere as innocent as it seems. Let's actually revisit the pre-ITA scenario, before I claimed. It's easy to town-read me when you know, and FFA knew. If the order is Prec-->FFA-->Freezin, then his goal is obvious. Let me die, then do everything to switch the narrative over to Freezin. Which jives well with his gamelong anti-blue crusade, despite the fact that trying to lynch blue claims in a vacuum is anti-town as hell.

Originally Posted by flashflash account

I still do think it's freezin. It's just the best order

"Let's kill Prec first, even though I think it's Freezin. That's the best order, killing me in the middle. Even though I think Freezin is lying. Because he's a blue claim. Since I don't have to worry about that yet."

Then I claim, and suddenly everything changes. "Oh no, Prec has revealed his role! I'm about to be killed. This is unfortunate, and my bullshit VT claim is suddenly a liability. I guess now PoE matters, even though it didn't when I wasn't on the block and could coast behind Prec!"

Then, suddenly, the otherwise aggressive, gives no fucks FFA is all about his survival.

Originally Posted by flashflash account

Wolves knew there was a lost one

And there's no way I'm dying first so one of the "blues" better fess up

And even before my claim

Although even a 15% chance is scary to him.

Originally Posted by flashflash account

Nobody can "shoot first " to maximize value, because if the person they shot dies that person doesn't get to shoot

If we're establishing that precarious is the most likely to be a wolf and thus shooting him first he absolutely should not shoot me to maximize value

Even though he thinks Freezin is the wolf at this point. Because it's not about odds or information or resolution or optimal activity. It's about him surviving as long as possible.

So why were you okay with dying second, then? Especially when you figured Freezin was the JOAT? Because it was fucking convenient for you. It's easy to say someone you know is town is town, and then go, "look I was right all along. And Freezin's been awfully vague with his claim. Let's kill him!" And even if it doesn't work, at least you got me before you go down.

But then I claimed, and suddenly your scheme collapses. So you lie. Forget PoE a minute--as soon as I claimed, I was a threat to you, and your read changed. Think as if you were actually town for a minute. Blue has value--does it outweigh PoE? But it was never about that for you, it was simple survival, even if it meant lying. Which, incidentally, would have guaranteed Freezin--your original JOAT read--lasted the longest anyway. Because it was never about that.

So you made up a role. And that's the thing about making up a role, as opposed to actually having one. If you make up shit on the fly, you make mistakes. As you did. So I called you on it. You probably could have lied, some people were willing to take your side. But not everyone was, and you panicked.

"Sorry guys, I was just making it up so I could live. But really, Prec's the JOAT! Never mind the only thing that changed my opinion was the order of shots!"

But that's just it. His entire narrative jumps around to whatever is most useful for him at the time. Blues suck all game, until the ITA is looming, and he has the opportunity to at least take me out before he dies. Order should definitely have Freezin last.

Originally Posted by flashflash account

Where would I be doing that and how does it work with me agreeing that precarious - me - freezin is the best order?

When that's inconvenient? Kill blues all day every day!

Originally Posted by flashflash account

Seriously
Kill the blues
We shouldn't give a free pass especially now that one of them is for sure lying

Similarly, he was all against me taking the first shot, because, hey 15% is scary!

Originally Posted by flashflash account

Nobody can "shoot first " to maximize value, because if the person they shot dies that person doesn't get to shoot

If we're establishing that precarious is the most likely to be a wolf and thus shooting him first he absolutely should not shoot me to maximize value

Originally Posted by flashflash account

If he was the wolf he'd happily shoot me first

When the meta starts shifting against him, what happens?

He takes the first shot and shoots at me. Because that's what a wolf does.

[Celirra]

i would consider it wolfy to resort to anger and hostility in the manner prec is, especially as a change from the cool demeanour i saw earlier

[roundbox]

I like precarious as a poster and also his snag on FFA is too good

FFA

[roundbox]

Originally Posted by Celirra

demeanour

add this to the list of words I did not know had a "u" in it

[Charu]

Precarious with the F-bombs, whoa

[Celirra]

Originally Posted by roundbox

add this to the list of words I did not know had a "u" in it

i didnt know this game had a "u" in it either

[roundbox]

precarious is me in 2015

[roundbox]

Originally Posted by Celirra

i didnt know this game had a "u" in it either

jesUs

[Daikyi]

it's a double negative

[Xelicopter]

Originally Posted by Charu

Xelicopter, since your one of the few that didn't show for both of the ITA's, where were you?

No bullshit. I just didn't come in.

[sprucegrit]

Originally Posted by Celirra

haku, why?

Oh, that's right, you said. Never mind, I got confused.

[jessiebessie]

Originally Posted by Celirra

i didnt know this game had a "u" in it either

that savagery omg

[Charu]

FFA

[Celirra]

Originally Posted by Daikyi

it's a double negative

missing some words there friend

[Charu]

Originally Posted by roundbox

precarious is me in 2015

what does this even meeeeeeean

[Xelicopter]

Originally Posted by Charu

FFA

Is ffa rly better than the other choice

[roundbox]

Originally Posted by Tokzic

yo how the fuck can you be reading any of my posts and write these words

i read seven pages of this game and i've been afk until now, i didn't even know this phase was ending until i saw discord

tokzic wolf reading me is good for me because he knew I was being mislynched via wolf chat so he thought forcing a case on me would be easy since there was support

Originally Posted by Tokzic

The first time I read this I thought "lol haku trying to minmax the waifu contest" but something about this stuck out to me and on reread I don't like the way this situation played out.



Haku's knee-trigger response to the waifu contest announcement is, "Should we all vote for the same waifu?" He then puts out the list of waifus, and less than an hour after announcement, tries to push us all to voting Eirika.

The wolves naturally have an advantage in this contest in both their numbers and the fact that they know each other's identities. But they specifically aren't allowed to talk in private about the contest. They have to do it in public. How do you get your team wolf team to pile votes onto your target? You tell them quickly who the group target is and act like you're talking to town. The "correct me if I'm wrong..." part even kind of gives an air of non-finality to it, which would maybe get town to disperse their votes and concentrate the wolf pool in future?

Another thing I noticed during my waifu research was that the characters in the contest are all within the Sacred Stones. It's a very real possibility the waifus are players in the game. And if that's the case, there's good motive for the wolves to get their waifu the win.

I don't think Haku's response to the contest is towny. I think there was a little too much initiative going on there and it smells bad to me.

here's another scumread of his to be consistent
he's scumreading us!! we're both town!!

[Celirra]

Originally Posted by roundbox

tokzic wolf reading me is good for me because he knew I was being mislynched via wolf chat so he thought forcing a case on me would be easy since there was support

you know who else was gunning for you
fucking
tambo