TWG CLXVIII: Capitalism [Game Thread]

[IBM]

Originally Posted by Shell

I still wanna say Facebook is an airhead.

Maybe Walmart? idk

✧

eh?

[Wells Fargo]

Originally Posted by Shell

I still wanna say Facebook is an airhead.

Maybe Walmart? idk

✧

What is happening right now

When did I go through a time-machine?

[Shell]

Originally Posted by Wells Fargo

maaaaaaaaaaaaaaan, that nightkill makes me think there's a CHANCE that Shell is a wolf

Would I make kills that made no sense?

✧

[IBM]

Originally Posted by Wells Fargo

What is happening right now

When did I go through a time-machine?

This might be the first game where you and I as players are on the same mindset?

What the fuck

[Wells Fargo]

Originally Posted by IBM

I think what he's asking is why you're confident they failed versus why they didn't opt to not use their power, which is an option.

ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

well I don't know that.

I do assume that they were going to fire every night, but yeah, if they're in a comfy spot, they don't have to and more than arguably shouldn't

[Shell]

Originally Posted by Wells Fargo

What is happening right now

When did I go through a time-machine?

What? What's wrong?

✧

[Wells Fargo]

Originally Posted by Shell

Would I make kills that made no sense?

✧

FUCK YEAH YOU WOULD

literally 50% of how I read you every game is looking at the night 1 kill as "does this kill look like it was made by a TWG playing chimpanzee or not"

its just night 2 this time instead

[Wells Fargo]

Originally Posted by Shell

What? What's wrong?

✧

I have a problem with you saying WalMart is your fourth town, that's all.

[Wells Fargo]

Originally Posted by IBM

This might be the first game where you and I as players are on the same mindset?

What the fuck

Not really a big thing.
Any sane person should be having this reaction.

[IBM]

Originally Posted by Wells Fargo

ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

well I don't know that.

I do assume that they were going to fire every night, but yeah, if they're in a comfy spot, they don't have to and more than arguably shouldn't

Let me ask you this for the shit of it:

What are the odds the AQ is in the wolf pile?

[GE]

Originally Posted by IBM

Let me ask you this for the shit of it:

What are the odds the AQ is in the wolf pile?

you're not asking me, but I highly doubt it.

[Wells Fargo]

Originally Posted by IBM

Let me ask you this for the shit of it:

What are the odds the AQ is in the wolf pile?

This is a tough question, but I think if they are in the wolf pile, they're trying to get out of it, so I think they would use their power, right?

But I don't really know the odds. We shouldn't be so lucky as to be looking for a SK-Wolf combo, especially with how this game has played out, so I'm inclined to say its not happening, but there is literally 0 logical reasoning there.

Starbucks, your 10 minutes is up.

[Starbucks]

Whoever on D0 introduced the idea of linguistic analysis, fucking thank you, because with that in my mind I was able to find the acquisitioner by going over every single players' posts and looking for patterns in grammatical structure, term usage (using some kind of mental TF-IDF), and emotive responses

I conducted two kinds of analyses:

1) Within-players (looking at a single player's posting history as a function of time), and
2) Between-players (comparing posting histories to those of Wal-Mart's)

Yes, I did both analyses for all living players.

Part 1: Within-players analysis

In this analysis, I studied posting behaviors of individual players between D0 and D1. More or less, I noticed that most players were acting internally consistently. Two players came to my attention here:
a) IBM, and
b) Marlboro.

IBM was strange for me, because there very clearly were different writing styles between and within days. I actually almost thought it was him, except I realized that this player had replaced out multiple times, making it nearly impossible to perform rigorous analysis on this player (i.e. I didn't feel like doing that). If IBM is the acquisitioner, then replacing out over and over again literally is the best strat because I am refusing to look deeper into this player on this dimension.

With Marlboro, you will notice that they have exactly 4 posts at the time of EoD D1. There are three observations I would like to bring forth:

First, is this post from D1:

Originally Posted by Marlboro

Obviously this freaked a lot of people out because first of all, Marlboro suddenly had shown up, at the BEGINNING OF THE PHASE, and made a reaction picture to the nightkills. It's weird, but not weird enough.

Second, is this post from D1:

Originally Posted by Marlboro

Because he's a weird bodysnatching version of the Serial Killer. It's something even the wolves are afraid of. So we can sort of work together with scum to take him out.

People noticed this too: Marlboro comes out of fucking nowhere, talks about the acquisitioner, then provides no other meaningful content for the rest of the phase. Again, this is strange, but the lack of activity matches their D0 behavior.

However, this last post is the silver bullet, the singular fuckup that Marlboro made in his play:

Originally Posted by Marlboro

I had a bad day, so my apologies if it took this long to pop in.

This is Marlboro's last post before today. I thought this was strange, because we can compare this to his first post ever:

Originally Posted by Marlboro

Sorry for taking so long to get here.

I'll read up tonight and write some Quality Posts™ tomorrow (warning: Quality Posts may cause cancer)

Here we have two different vernaculars for the same expression: "sorry I'm late." In the first one, from the real Marlboro, he says "sorry for taking so long to get here." In the second one, he says "my apologies if it took this long to pop in."

Two completely different ways of saying the same thing, from two different days. It seems as though these two posts are coming from two different voices. That alarmed me.

This may seem like nitpicking. And this alone isn't damning information. That brings us to Phase 2.

Part 2: Between-players Analysis

Here, I looked at every single player's posting histories and compared them to Wal-Mart's. This was very hard, but it all became worth it when I stumbled upon these gems:

Originally Posted by Walmart

Here's another example of Facebook popping in to make some restatement of a comment again

These pop-ins do not help my perception of you, mostly because you're not saying that you're going to be inactive, you're just sitting on the sidelines echoing what everyone else is saying. I still wouldn't be too happy if you said you were going to be inactive, but this just makes you look worse.


Thank you,

Sam Walton

Originally Posted by Walmart

[color=black]
Why are you still on this topic? Why are you so worried about IBM's posting gimmick? What kind of pop in is this

The term popping in should seem familiar:

Originally Posted by Marlboro

I had a bad day, so my apologies if it took this long to pop in.

We have a winner!

One player's D1 posting doesn't match their D0 posting, but DOES match another player's D0 posting: the acquisitioner's.

Marlboro for emphasis.

[Starbucks]

Two points I would like to add here:

1) Two other players, Apple and Toyota, both have used the term "popping in", once from my recollection. The term is not married to Marlboro. Additionally, this is not the only term that Marlboro/Wal-Mart have used. My analysis is not infallible. However ---
2) I am not voting for Marlboro just for this analysis --- the main reason is because there were no acquisitioner kills.

If anybody wants to make the case that the acquisitioner made no kills tonight, I'm all ears --- otherwise, your ass is fucking mine, Marlboro.

[Wells Fargo]

I like the work Starbucks.

I bet you lunch or dinner next time that its wrong though.

Bet is invalid if either of us are the acquisitioner or wolves.

Interested?

[Wells Fargo]

Also, how hard would you have cried if you died last night after doing player-by-player analysis on language? lmao

[Starbucks]

Originally Posted by Wells Fargo

I like the work Starbucks.

I bet you lunch or dinner next time that its wrong though.

Bet is invalid if either of us are the acquisitioner or wolves.

Interested?

What part of

the acquisitioner was stopped

do you not understand

[IBM]

Originally Posted by GE

you're not asking me, but I highly doubt it.

Originally Posted by Wells Fargo

This is a tough question, but I think if they are in the wolf pile, they're trying to get out of it, so I think they would use their power, right?

But I don't really know the odds. We shouldn't be so lucky as to be looking for a SK-Wolf combo, especially with how this game has played out, so I'm inclined to say its not happening, but there is literally 0 logical reasoning there.

Starbucks, your 10 minutes is up.

I think the odds aren't terrible, and I disagree with the notion that being in wolf role would be something you'd wanna get out of.

Think of say how DBP played SK one game where he made no kills till later in the game. But this SK gets to say get into wolf chat and join the discussion, otherwise their cover would be blown.

Dumbing myself down a lot: I think the AQ is a player who'd think like I do, and aim for a target that puts them ahead at the risk of losing. The information you can gain out of that, and the safety net of being in the wolf circle with the option to leave at any time, is such a strong position to be in, especially if you can net it early game. And since they're not a wolf, and can play as if they're the SK bussing partners is easier for them to do at least once.

Does this make sense? It's a lot of speculation, but like I'm really sure this is the optimal play to abuse this role. They don't have to make a kill if they can help dictate the wolf kills. Though maybe our Vigi is the AQ ect.

This is why I feel mass claiming has a lot of shenanigans. Sure we solve for town, but we somewhat indirectly give the AQ a way to plan their pathing and leaves them room to abuse the role to the maximum extent.

Sorry about kinda throwing this out but it's like, the thing that racks my brain the most. We're netting wolves left and right, so I'm worried about the AQ a little more for at least a day.

It's a bit more than I should be thinking about maybe.

[GE]

holy shit Starbucks. Nice work. Marlboro

[IBM]

Well geez, starbucks through a major wrench into my theory.

Not that I'm mad about it, holy crap.

I was looking at time posting on d1 to find outliers but man.