TWG CXXXIII: Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

[Vendetta21]

Originally Posted by psychoangel691

I said that I didn't like storn during D0, today I said I didn't like how ck and storn were jumping on me as an easy target when there's information to go off now. But then others did it anyway.

I'm not going to bother making some huge reads list that will be ignored anyway. I'll post when I notice things that stand out. I haven't been on since earlier today so I have to read what else has been said today.

I haven't even ignored a single reads list. You can post one and I will find it useful.

[storn42]

Originally Posted by Vendetta21

I haven't even ignored a single reads list. You can post one and I will find it useful.

because this is the best reads list ever :P charu the dead snivy will be missed

Originally Posted by storn42

guys i'm going to give my player reads for the entire match

1) charu - the bestest of best of Snivy of the bestest
2) charu - the bestest of best of Snivy of the bestest
3) charu - the bestest of best of Snivy of the bestest
4) charu - the bestest of best of Snivy of the bestest
5) charu - the bestest of best of Snivy of the bestest
6) charu - the bestest of best of Snivy of the bestest
7) charu - the bestest of best of Snivy of the bestest
8) charu - the bestest of best of Snivy of the bestest
9) charu - the bestest of best of Snivy of the bestest
10) charu - the bestest of best of Snivy of the bestest
11) charu - the bestest of best of Snivy of the bestest
12) charu - the bestest of best of Snivy of the bestest
13) charu - the bestest of best of Snivy of the bestest
14) charu - the bestest of best of Snivy of the bestest
15) charu - the bestest of best of Snivy of the bestest
16) charu - the bestest of best of Snivy of the bestest

[psychoangel691]

Originally Posted by Vendetta21

I haven't even ignored a single reads list. You can post one and I will find it useful.

There's no way I'm getting through a full one tonight. I'm going to look at the people who have stood out most so far.

[Vendetta21]

Originally Posted by psychoangel691

There's no way I'm getting through a full one tonight. I'm going to look at the people who have stood out most so far.

Okay. So was your comment about not doing it because it would be ignored a bit of a superfluous rationalization to your real reason for not wanting to do it (time)?

[Red Blaster]

Originally Posted by thesunfan

not angleshooting

I was specifically warned that analyzing host actions/lack of actions is angleshooting

[psychoangel691]

Originally Posted by Vendetta21

Okay. So was your comment about not doing it because it would be ignored a bit of a superfluous rationalization to your real reason for not wanting to do it (time)?

No it just has to do with whenever I'm town I peg down wolves but nobody seems to listen to what I have to say. An example of this was when I called out Plop as being the roleblocker wolf and he went on to win the game. Sure enough he was the roleblocker wolf that game

I also don't want to waste a ton of time going through and writing something about every single person if there's nothing really standing out to me toward that person being wolfy.

[thesunfan]

that's not a host action though
ben posting or not posting is not a result of a host action unless he was silenced, and if he is the last person to post then its fine to post "Lol I guess ben was silenced"

[Jtehanonymous]

Originally Posted by Red Blaster

Here he votes ben of all people, who I find to be more human that anyone else he discusses in this post. He calls sunfan town which I find to the biggest joke ever considering sunfans done next to nothing at the time of this post.

If you read, my very reasoning for aligning sunfan town is that he appears to not have enough time have on his hands, and instead is (WAS since this was prior to his read's list) just posting very awkwardly. He was posting in a fashion that was certainly being noticed by many in the thread and sunfan wouldn't draw such strange attention to himself as a wolf in my opinion. Aka he was "doing nothing" and I agree with that sentiment.
I didn't grab a huge neon sign and place it over sunfan, calling him the most glowing town in the world, I simply gave a passing thought on three candidates that roundbox presented and threw them in buckets.

Originally Posted by Red Blaster

Idk this whole game has been reminiscent of jteh's wolf game in that jtwg where Ben's sister played and the wolf team won.

Do you remember who the other wolf was in that game with me, RB? It was Reuben Tate. Do you also know who is playing an EXTREMELY similar game to that, where he largely posts nothing and then intermittently he'll swoop in and give a few gems before ducking out for another eon? Reuben Tate.

Your reasoning for me can be identically applied to Reuben. I'm on Reuben because I know his wolf game. I've played it with him in the past.

Btw, I got back from seeing Tomorrowland and lol it wasn't really that good. x_x 4/10

[Vendetta21]

Originally Posted by storn42

huh.. i thought that was just being cautious but perhaps not....

So contextually charu was reading pretty green, and fear of the mirror coat is a pretty significant fear I imagine, as misfiring on a mirror coat might cost the wolves the game. So that's one factor to consider in this situation.

Another factor to consider is the fact that choof was also reading pretty green but charu was selected over him. One might initially think this has to do with Charu's reads, but if you can attempt to get into the headspace of a wolf facing this town's PRs would you consider a human with good reads to be more dangerous than a human with a PR?

If we assume choof is human, then the selection of charu over choof probably indicates a belief on the part of the wolves that charu was more likely a PR than choof. And if it were the case that they were going to roleblock whomever they killed until mirror coat was down, then that suggests the wolves are employing a strategy wherein they must prioritize finding the mirror coat first in order to maximize the strength of their roles as soon as possible.

I think most people would feel this strongly suggests successful blue hunting on the charu kill. It just seems like a good Bayesian inference. In that situation who are the best blue hunters?

I know plopadop is good at this, thesunfan claims to be good at it, are there others? It's just another useful indicator that helps solidify a suspicion. Blue hunting IS a skill and there are wolves who are much much better at it than others (manti is fucking incredible at it.)

[thesunfan]

jub seems competent enough of a player to tell a seer from a vt but that's just from what I can tell from his experience
fg is probably the most experienced wolf outside of your list
either of them maybe
I want to hear why FG wouldn't make that kill though.

[Vendetta21]

You want to hear why FG wouldn't make that kill???

[Vendetta21]

Isn't that just asking someone to say: "hey you might be a liar but can you tell me you're innocent?"

[Red Blaster]

Originally Posted by Jtehanonymous

If you read, my very reasoning for aligning sunfan town is that he appears to not have enough time have on his hands, and instead is (WAS since this was prior to his read's list) just posting very awkwardly. He was posting in a fashion that was certainly being noticed by many in the thread and sunfan wouldn't draw such strange attention to himself as a wolf in my opinion. Aka he was "doing nothing" and I agree with that sentiment.
I didn't grab a huge neon sign and place it over sunfan, calling him the most glowing town in the world, I simply gave a passing thought on three candidates that roundbox presented and threw them in buckets.




Do you remember who the other wolf was in that game with me, RB? It was Reuben Tate. Do you also know who is playing an EXTREMELY similar game to that, where he largely posts nothing and then intermittently he'll swoop in and give a few gems before ducking out for another eon? Reuben Tate.

Your reasoning for me can be identically applied to Reuben. I'm on Reuben because I know his wolf game. I've played it with him in the past.

Btw, I got back from seeing Tomorrowland and lol it wasn't really that good. x_x 4/10

True, but I can't ever recall Ben being super active in any game regardless of alignment.

[Funnygurl555]

Originally Posted by thesunfan

I want to hear why FG wouldn't make that kill though.

I'm bad at rolehunting and couldn't tell that Charu was playing differently. I would've kept Charu alive because I felt that people would be wary of him throughout the game due to how good of a wolf he is.

Yeah sure take this as a lie but I would've gone for someone else or do what I usually do in TWG and let my partners decide the kills.

[psychoangel691]

Figured I'd start with storn since people found it odd that I thought he was weird.

Originally Posted by storn42

soo C&R here had his scum slip, but what i find more interesting is his response to choof calling him out on it. kinda makes him seem like he wants to tunnel on choof. could be scum wanting to get in on choof or just a dislike, remembering what happened in sign ups.

Originally Posted by storn42

i'm cool with a backpack lynch. i believe someone mentioned before this was how he played woof as well. the lynch on jub right now is so much because we dont know him. incase anyone hasn't noticed. jub + C&R are the two we want to lynch. i think its because their outsiders. not that we dont welcome them, but that we dont know them, and they dont know us.

Says c&r had a scum slip then backs off and is like oh yeah sure I'll go with dbp just because others said that this is his how he's played as a wolf. Why say the two new people to the FFR game are the ones we want to lynch but put the vote on dbp only because of what someone else said?

Originally Posted by storn42

well i should't say the two we wnt to lynch. but we put a lot of pressure on them. especially for D0 imo. and i do think its because their new to our games.

Even with this correction, then why vote dbp and not pressure these two since he makes it out to be so important?

Originally Posted by storn42

well if he is a hit here is what we get:
1) list of people who voted on him: woofs are less likely to vote on a woof, but you can always bus.
2) If if he is a woof PR, we will know his role, 1 less woof PR
3) we know the last vote isn't a woof. not applicable if takedown

let me also point out that the woofs probably dont know eachothers roles yet they have to wait until night to talk and unless their given who eachother's roles are they simpley wont know.

if myslinch
1) there will be a few wolves on the vote list. its obvious, but you know, it may help
2) easy to get people to vote for him so a woof might start the chain
3) not much.

either way
1) no sane PR will be the last vote. accidentally losing a pr is really bad, and if there is the possibility of him being the takedown it would be silly to lose a pr to him.

all in all its better if someone can conceivable say he is a woof. if there is enough doubt or we can find a better lynch it would be a good idea.

Takes all this time to make out why dbp is a good lynch target.
Also point 3 under the hit column seems weird to me. Why wouldn't it be a wolf last in the event it wasn't a takedown wolf? If it's likely a wolf is going to die anyway I would think a wolf would want to get on that wagon for distancing purposes.

Originally Posted by storn42

i do think choof is right though, we should wait for D2 to lynch either jub or C&R simply because we dont know them yet. with backpack absent we should look for a fourth good lynch.

Then starts to back peddle and say we need to look for a fourth good lynch. Went from wanting to put all this pressure on the two new people to nah lets give em a free pass, and from I'm cool with killing dbp to lets find another target.

Originally Posted by storn42

something messe dup my curry read

Curry and rice - somewhere between null and slight slight woof - idk where i want to put him, but he's had a few slip ups and he's new to the site so i wont put him far below, but i think he is still scummier than null.

Starts bringing curry back up again after just saying they get a pass to D2, I feel like this stuff is him trying to get off his wolf partner.

Originally Posted by storn42

woofs will want to vote early on, if they want to bus. the question is do they know what roles their partners are? we will also need to choose who wants to take the blow if he is the TD

Originally Posted by storn42

wrong. if the woofs REALLY want to bus and dpb becomes that lost cause and he ISN'T the takedown. the real TD would know and could insta. IF the TD wants to insta.

These posts just rubbed me the wrong way. The we will need to choose who wants to take the blow part seems like a blue hunting strategy.

Originally Posted by storn42

i think i'd be down with a CK lynch. choof pointed out something earlier that really makes CK kinda weird. that being his reads list. its very much "this guys is kinda woof for some reason" and i think it might be a very informational lynch.

After this he went back to dbp. storn did a lot of ping ponging around and followed a lot of what others were saying (mostly choof) rather than pushing more on his own thoughts. Yes, I realize that he had his vote on a wolf in the end of it all, but that doesn't mean he's clear. I wouldn't say he's the one I'd worry about most today, but I do still have a distrust there.


I don't know how many other people I'll get to tonight.

[psychoangel691]

Oh and forgot to include the jump on and off me last day phase for storn. Just to add to the jumping around.

[choof]

I don't think I ever saw charu softing a blue role
did he really? and because of the bullshit that happened during the first game/early second game, the wolves were able to blue-hunt and remember to double down on night actions?

I'd have to do some extreme reading to see if charu really did soft, but I never got that from him, he was just strong town

[Jub3r7]

Originally Posted by psychoangel691

I'm not going to bother making some huge reads list that will be ignored anyway. I'll post when I notice things that stand out. I haven't been on since earlier today so I have to read what else has been said today.

A huge reads list helped people to townread me last phase, so if you are town then you should probably do that.

[storn42]

Originally Posted by psychoangel691

Takes all this time to make out why dbp is a good lynch target.
Also point 3 under the hit column seems weird to me. Why wouldn't it be a wolf last in the event it wasn't a takedown wolf? If it's likely a wolf is going to die anyway I would think a wolf would want to get on that wagon for distancing purposes.

#3 was saying that a woof wouldn't want to bus and be the last voter. Assuming woofs dont know eachother's roles, if they dont know that the guy they are killing ISN'T the TD why risk bussing the TD AND having the TD kill you? thats just plain old woof stupidity. you bused your friend and killed yourself and all on D0

[Vendetta21]

Psycho how is the "choose who will take the blow" part a blue hunting strategy?