TWG CXXIV: Super Smash Brothers

[TWG Zelda]

Originally Posted by TWG Mega Man

Hey Zelda, these posts were pretty vague. Who are you talking about?

Everyone that switched off of you.

I know you came around with peach, but you call everyone's claim Bullshit, yet we should take yours at face value? You're just running around pissing on everybody, and then you're literally minutes from death, and pull a coherent post out of your ass. Sure, you've made some good points now and again, but it's from outrageous reasoning.

[TWG Ike]

Originally Posted by TWG Mega Man

And even though "we're relatively sure" that we've found a wolf, you think the best thing to do is to... not lynch our best lead, but focus instead on people based on an assumption that we could make concrete by, you know, just fucking lynching our best lead.

The risk is too great. Wanna lynch the claimed most valuable role in the game only to find out that your reputation is gone? I'll admit that you have balls but until we're at the day before we can lose there's no point to lynching Bowser at all b/c either way we get more information the longer he is alive, regardless of alignment.

Originally Posted by TWG Mega Man

When we find a partner and they fakeclaim a blue role too, are you going to pussy out on them too?

Unless I have good reason not to, then yes, I'm not lynching a claim without a CC/strong reason to believe that they are fake in a situation where we have nothing to lose and a significant gain.

[TWG Zelda]

Also, those posts made sense where they were posted.

[TWG Ike]

I don't really think playing rationally is being a pussy, Mega Man.
Say we lynch Bowser tomorrow and he flips cop. All we know is that a lurker who doesn't like other lurkers (Pikachu) is a non mafia goon/roleblocker and w/e his check tonight is, should he even get one.
Say Bowser is real and we end up hitting the roleblocker, should there be one (almost certainly is one but yeah). Forces the wolves hand to either find the medic or yolokill Bowser, in which case we then know all of his checks to be real.
Until we're in a bad position the potential gain is too great to risk losing since no role in this game (save for maybe a super YOLO oracle) can blow the game open like a cop can.

[TWG Ike]

also I would like to argue that making a mistake with a claim is entirely possible for humans as well, Mega Man.

In a game I played not too long ago we lynched a medic claim in mylo that turned out to be real even though they claimed to have had 3 saves when there had only been 2 night phases (they were chainsaw, but they were human). Your argument for this is far less potent.

[TWG Ike]

ok hopefully that's enough on Bowser for now I'll shut up about how we're not touching him for a while now

[TWG Mega Man]

Originally Posted by TWG Zelda

Also, those posts made sense where they were posted.

Made sense? Yes. Was it clear who you were talking about? No, or I wouldn't have needed to ask you.

[TWG Zelda]

Originally Posted by TWG Zelda

So what do you guys think the wolves would do, kill peach block Bowser, or vice versa?

Anybody???

[TWG Zelda]

Originally Posted by TWG Mega Man

Made sense? Yes. Was it clear who you were talking about? No, or I wouldn't have needed to ask you.

I'm sorry you're incompetent.

[TWG Mega Man]

Originally Posted by TWG Ike

Unless I have good reason not to, then yes, I'm not lynching a claim without a CC/strong reason to believe that they are fake in a situation where we have nothing to lose and a significant gain.

You think this is a situation where we have "nothing to lose and a significant gain" by leaving Bowser alive? You're right that the Cop is the most powerful role in the game. If Bowser's claim was the only claim in the thread, I would agree that the best course of action is to keep him alive.

But it isn't, and that's what makes your plan terrible.

The Gunsmith role is a Vigi on steroids. We get one Vigi per day, from any player the Gunsmith chooses, as long as the Gunsmith remains alive. That is insane! At minimum we get a free confirmed human, and at best we get a whole bunch of vigis!

And ours has claimed to the thread.

You want to talk about risk?

Let's assume, as "we're relatively sure", Bowser is fakeclaiming and Peach's claim is real. Put yourself in the wolves shoes for a second. Reds would really want to off the only blue they're sure of right now, but they don't know whether or not it's safe to attack her, now that I've appealed to the Medic to keep her alive and not Bowser.

They're in a pickle, though. If Peach gets her power off, we get a vigi AND a confirmed human. That's not good for the wolves.

So what they'll probably do is roleblock Peach and kill Peach. Bowser's going to give us a bullshit green read, or a bullshit "I GOT ROLEBLOCKED LOL". Best case scenario, Peach dies. But even if the kill fails, they'll know the Medic is onto their bullshit, Peach won't be confirmed human, and we don't get a vigi tomorrow.

You're so fixated on the remote possibility that the Cop could be telling the truth that you're willing to sacrifice another valuable blue instead. My plan isn't risky and irrational - yours is.

[TWG Mega Man]

Originally Posted by TWG Ike

ok hopefully that's enough on Bowser for now I'll shut up about how we're not touching him for a while now

"We"? No, it's just you.

Why the hell do you keep trying to force your position on the thread? In spite of my personal certainty that Bowser is red, I'm not under any illusion that what I say is what goes. This isn't the first time you've treated your opinion like you're some kind of Group Leader and what you say is the plan. It isn't. Stop acting like it.

[TWG Samus]

Originally Posted by TWG Zelda

Anybody???

Bowser is the higher priority target for the wolves to kill assuming his claim is legit.

Wolves probably are hoping the gunsmith gives the gun to a poor target or the gun (if is gets passed) ends up shooting another townie to help even out WFT's death.

I'd bet the wolves try for bowser, but saying so may have already altered the wolf kill.

[TWG Samus]

That is assuming there is no roleblocker. Which kinda makes my analysis worthless. Great.

[TWG King Dedede]

[TWG Bowser]

Just a heads up, I'll be playing tourney files tonight so if I miss the start of the day, I'm not sorry.

[TWG Ike]

Originally Posted by TWG Mega Man

"We"? No, it's just you.

Why the hell do you keep trying to force your position on the thread? In spite of my personal certainty that Bowser is red, I'm not under any illusion that what I say is what goes. This isn't the first time you've treated your opinion like you're some kind of Group Leader and what you say is the plan. It isn't. Stop acting like it.

You're the only one talking about how Bowser is fake.
The only one pushing that case.
Killing him tomorrow/soon is a play that wishes it was shit tier that's how bad it is.

[TWG Ike]

also I was just given cancer again
the wolves fucking killed Shulk last night and you're in here giving them ideas on the optimal play for them in the night.
shut the fuck up about what you "expect" or "think" will happen. That shit can wait until the wolves possibly make a mistake

[TWG Rosalina]

some stuff

Originally Posted by TWG Mega Man

"We"? No, it's just you.

Why the hell do you keep trying to force your position on the thread?

first off he said he was going to shut up about how we weren't going to touch him and that's not forcing his stance on the thread, that's him saying he's going to keep his mouth shut, so either you're not reading clearly enough or you're hopelessly prodding for reactions

you are hypocritical saying that others are trying to force their position when in reality your halfassed post to keep yourself alive at eop as well as the past few posts are more forced than anything that ike has said in the first place

in fact, your aggression has gone through the roof since then and even after the phase has ended. to me it is almost as if you are trying to control townie because you feel like you made a "good move"

stop trying to shift the town play to your favor and actually work with them as a team

MORE STUFF ETC

anyway, I personally believe that between the role-claim by bowser and the eop and continued aggression by megaman that might be a wolf in that pair. there's even a decent bit of discussion earlier on (starts at 566 or so) that is notable where megaman talks about mario being an inactive but doesn't bother to fixate on those in similar situations myself included at the time, which almost seems like a pick for an easy target, but... i still have issues with the way the soft claim happened so it's not enough for me to really focus

something is also going on between kirby + fox as well and I feel like there is at least one wolf in that pair although i am heavily leaning towards fox because a. he very blatantly said he was not following a megaman lynch and never expressed any interest in another lynch which does no good to the town at all and b. there are a number of posts that just reek of trying unnecessarily hard nearing day 2 end

incomplete reads list because i have to go for now


solid town
Link: seems pro town and is putting a lot of effort to get the town on track through insight and not forceful direction which is good to me, his reads lists on 568/952 acceptably resonate with me minus bowser's placement, but even then this happened before the claim so this might change

Samus: thinking logically and in human interests; post #1245 was a good pro-town catch for me


slight town
Marth: contributing more actively but has gone a bit UTR not posting since the 12th

Villager: not a lot of info to go off of but his responses to certain actions feel good


no read
Pikachu: mostly fluff

Kirby: nervous because of the interaction with fox. even though i find fox to be generally bullshit, the heated discussions make me uneasy only because i strongly believe there is a wolf within one of you two

King Dedede: not a lot of useful information minus a few questions directed towards others

Sonic: inactive as fuck, hasn't posted in a week

Donkey Kong: inactive as fuck, hasn't posted in a week

Rosalina: inactive as f-- oh wait it was 6 days before my return lol


slight wolf:
Bowser: same as kirby + fox situation only with something else to note: i felt megaman to be contradictory and the aggression near lynch to not only save himself but also target someone else who claimed role is a weird green move to me with this many people left, but i have issues with the role claim as well so i'll have to wait


solid wolf:
Fox: similar contradication in defense of inactives as megaman, over aggressive towards kirby on the megaman lynch but no one else and i am not a fan of the tunnel, and finally, outright says without reasoning that he will not vote megaman and just ups and leaves the thread

Megaman: not going to be a broken record, same deal as before

gotta go for now and i will try to respond to things tomorrow or friday if possible

[TWG Ike]

*most posts*
*not even mentioned*

[TWG Mega Man]

Originally Posted by TWG Ike

shut the fuck up about what you "expect" or "think" will happen. That shit can wait until the wolves possibly make a mistake

Funny, I hesitated about making that post for this reason.

But you were pratting on about how leaving a clear red alive is a "significant gain" for the humans, and nobody else was acknowledging the existence of the only actual known blue player. There really wasn't a delicate way to tell you why you're wrong without getting into it.

But then I thought, you know what? I'm feeling good about our position right now, so hell, why not!