jTWG LXV: The Revenge of the Return of the Son of jTWG

[T-Force]

LUNCH BREEEEEEEEEEEEAK!

So there's that other cop claim. The fact that they seered R as green is unusual mainly because then that was a stupid claim to make..

Basically it comes to this.
Trust R, Yosh is a wolf, partner unknown.
Trust Lefty, R is green, nothing known.

Cav, your theory on it being Yosh and Lefty is intriguing.. Unlikely as heck, but intriguing.

I'm also curious about CharliePrawn. That list of "reads" seems empty. Like he's trying to hide something, which plays up well with how I felt Prawn was playing.

Silly I need to see more from today, but I feel alright about her.
R and Lefty.. No matter who we trust, R is green. Passing over him.
As for Lefty, I don't know what to think of Cav's theory because it seems kinda farfetched (but so is my own).

At this moment, Charles is tops for me, with Silly as a wild card.

[thesunfan]

Votecount:
Yoshl- RNGRX, Cav
Charles- Silly
T-Force- Yoshl

votecount before work plz let this be right for once

[YoshL]

Originally Posted by ohsosilly

Uh well first allow me to what the fuck

Second of all I have some gameplay questions

1) If the cop tries to seer someone at night and gets roleblocked, are they informed that they've been roleblocked or is the person they're seering seen as green instead?
2) What's the order again on wolfkills/roleblocking/seering etc.?

I'll type up my reactions now, just wanted to let you know I'm here

1) they're informed of a roleblock, or don't get a pm. they would not see any seer result, green or red

2) natural resolution - first resolve the actions that aren't modified by anything else

then it'd be roleblocking, wolf/seering in this case, because if cop seers someone and gets wolved, it doesn't really matter.

thanks for stopping in guys

[T-Force]

I'm off again in about 13 minutes and will be gone till 8 server time.

Voting CharliePrawn.

[ohsosilly]

Originally Posted by Cavernio

This wolf behaviour wouldn't be done on the fly, that's for sure. But I don't think it's too hard nor unexpected for the wolves to have a plan of what to do if the cop reads one of them. Maybe for 2 newbies, but not for yoshl. Like, if they are wolves, they didn't need to know who the cop was nor if they would even come out. It's just an agreement of 'If the cop catches one of us as a wolf, the other one counter-claims that they are the cop and that the person who claimed as a cop is green'.

Totally agree. It seems like perfect sense to have a plan like in place if someone gets seered, and I definitely see it being something Yoshl would orchestrate. It seemed like Lefty's responses to the questions were very matter-of-fact (though I don't know how else you respond to matter-of-fact questions, I guess...)

The thing that makes me suspicious is why seer R, Lefty? You never expressed suspicion of him on Day 0, saying you were only baffled by his confusing play style. It would have made much more sense for you to seer Prawn, since he was the one you had a "gut feeling" about. What changed your mind for investigating? It seems too convenient, having you pop up and counterclaim, after seering someone you'd never expressed suspicion on.

I want to believe that R was hesitating about coming forward as cop simply because he wasn't sure if he should. If I were cop (which I am not, sweet jesus we already have enough) I would definitely spend some time waiting around before coming forward, just because of the fact that I wouldn't be 100% sure of the repercussions, kind of like what's happening now, lol.

There is a small part of me, though, that says R might actually just be screwing with everyone just because he's R, lol. He is my favorite of all enigmas. I hope that's not the case, because if Yoshl comes back green and R comes back green too, we're fucked.

At this point, Yoshl is still my top candidate for a lynch, if only because his lynch, IMO will help us narrow down this double-cop situation. I feel like it's too risky to single out either alleged cop and lynch, obviously.

Oh right and I had another question

Originally Posted by YoshL

what would be more useless is if RNG was the medic

Originally Posted by YoshL

thank god he isn't

ARE YOU CLAIMING MEDIC?

[YoshL]

if i die, it becomes mislynch and lose, which is the scenario that i outlined a while back, and that charles has talked about.

it's not a good place to be with the cop known, and the roleblocker alive.

let's put it a nother way

[ohsosilly]

Alright clearly I don't understand something so I'm going back to read those posts again lol

[YoshL]

say r is the cop, and you lynch me. I would turn up red as with his claim, even though his reasoning and posts were nearly incomprehensible as he made his cop claim. you then lynch lefty because it's obviously a false counterclaim, and you win.

and say r isn't the cop and you lynch me. there's lefty and r left as confirmed town, and one of those will be dead if medic doesn't get to them.

do you really want to leave the final fucking decisions up to lefty and r

i'm being dead serious. I know which scenario is going to happen if i'm lynched obviously, and the risk is horrid. even one inactive person in a 5 person day phase is death to town. the only way for town to kill a wolf would be if all three townspeople decided to vote on a wolf, which is hard as balls given the amount of information you would have, especially given either lefty or rngrx would be left.

[YoshL]

on the other hand, if lefty is the cop, and r is lying, then you have lefty and r as cleared, and me as well. I'm throwing myself in there because I doubt any wolves would take the gamble. As a green, i knew a counterclaim had to come, which is why i immediately voted RNG, because there was no other explanation, until lefty came and said r was green. then welp, rng just made a bad village play.

ANYWAYS

we kill charles, force, or ohsosilly, with a 2/3 chance of hitting a wolf assuming lefty is right.

1/3 of that chance is hitting the roleblocker wolf.

if we hit the roleblocker wolf, then lefty would get one more seering opportunity, where we find the last wolf and win.

[Cavernio]

No yoshl, this isn't the same scenario at all as what it was earlier.

Yoshl can be a wolf with R being the actual cop or with R being a dufus greeny. In other terms, yoshl and lefty can be the wolves, or yoshl and someone else can still be the wolf.
R doesn't read wolf at all anymore, he's either green or blue.

If R were a wolf, then lefty wouldn't have come back and said he was green. Unless both of them were wolves. But if both lefty and R were wolves both claiming to be cops, then there'd still be a real cop out there, and there isn't.

What's changed is that it doesn't matter who the cop is for yoshl to not be off the chopping block. R could be shooting his mouth off or being 100% truthful and you're still a wolf candidate. You even put yourself on the list of possibilities still, because you know I'm right.

[YoshL]

fuck rngrx, but i'm not going to give up.

i have to go eat dinner.

this is reminding me of a matrix game
http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/...135595&page=18

i'm seriously going to fight, because i have everything to lose.

fuck if wolves are going to sweep

[YoshL]

also cav you need to get past your fucking confirmation bias, because it's going to cost us.

[Cavernio]

Originally Posted by YoshL

say r is the cop, and you lynch me. I would turn up red as with his claim, even though his reasoning and posts were nearly incomprehensible as he made his cop claim. you then lynch lefty because it's obviously a false counterclaim, and you win.

The more you keep pushing aside that you're not still a possible wolf regardless of whether R is a cop or isn't a cop, the more you look covered in fur.

[Cavernio]

Seriously R fucking come back in the thread

[Charles Claythorne]

Yeah, lynching one of T-Force, ohsosilly, and me is the best option right now, given the circumstances. I trust YoshL; I don't think he would have reacted how he did by the seering if he were a Wolf.

Voting on T-Force now anyway. Have read through about half the topic so far and things I've noted:

ohsosilly's analysis list - When I read through the thread the first time a few hours after joining, none of T-Force's posts struck me as Human. I'm figuring this may be an attempt to give a Human lean to a Wolf Partner.

And in T-Force's list, he also felt that ohsosilly seemed Human, despite ohsosilly hardly having posted beyond his list.

Also, posts like this strengthen my suspicions on their seeming relation.

I feel like T-Force's reasons for suspecting are rather artificial too. How is my list "empty?" What could I be "hiding?" I joined the game just today, so it's not as if I can make a detailed analysis of each Player from the get-go.

I have a headache now though, so I'm going to stop rereading there for now. I'll try to continue later if I can, but I'm rather confident on T-Force/ohsosilly.

[Charles Claythorne]

Cavernio, I'm fairly confident about T-Force and ohososilly being Partners.

Your suspicion of YoshL being a Wolf is possible, but unlikely, I feel. Imagine if you were a Wolf in his position; an ostensible Cop has just seered you Red. Are you going to adamantly declare that there will be a counterclaim with this type of setup, despite (to your knowledge) believing there won't be one, since the 'real' Cop has already claimed? It just seems incredibly unlikely for him to go down so hard for such damning evidence.

The theory about him and LeftyRighty is also certainly possible. However, although YoshL is experience, I don't give in credence for him to both think up the plan alongside LeftyRighty as a precaution during the Night Phase and actually risk going through with it as a Wolf. It doesn't fit him, in my opinion. In fact, I would expect very few experienced Players to have gone through the trouble of thinking it up, frankly.

[YoshL]

Originally Posted by YoshL

on the other hand, if lefty is the cop, and r is lying, then you have lefty and r as cleared, and me as well. I'm throwing myself in there because I doubt any wolves would take the gamble. As a green, i knew a counterclaim had to come, which is why i immediately voted RNG, because there was no other explanation, until lefty came and said r was green. then welp, rng just made a bad village play.

Originally Posted by Cavernio

The more you keep pushing aside that you're not still a possible wolf regardless of whether R is a cop or isn't a cop, the more you look covered in fur.

confirmation bias. stop it. it's not helping you at all. I'm not pushing it aside, especially without good reason.

[Cavernio]

lefty opinion?

[YoshL]

no

[YoshL]

we need a right(y) opinion