The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

[MrRubix]

I mean, don't buy into Gambler's Fallacy. Waiting until you get a losing streak is not going to help you. The statistical masking here is the fact that you're hedging with lower sum bets and NOT the fact that you're waiting until an affordable losing streak occurs with an extremely small amount of credits.

If you place reasonable bets that you can afford to lose that can potentially help you gain in the slightest, you can estimate how much of that margin you are willing to forgo to seek bigger bets if smaller synthesized packages aren't available to take advantage of the variance. Of course, since our betting increments change quite drastically, this would insinuate that playing it patiently is the best way to earn. Betting twice at 5000 is technically safer than betting once at 10,000. So if you can tackle lower bets to synthesize larger ones, then by all means, do it (if you lose the first 5,000 you don't have to bet the second 5,000, whereas if you bet 10k on the first shot and lost, you just lost out on that extra 5k). The variance is lower, and the more you can do it, the easier it is to at least break even if you don't ever make enough margin. However, the UPSIDE to being locked into a higher risk is the fact that you earn more. If I make ten bets of 50, I am expected to lose 250 and win 250. However, if I bet 500, there is a 50% chance that I will come out with 500. So you have to look at the margin of what you win/lose vs. the variance of your next strategy.

Of course, this assumes you are patient. If you're like me, you're going to be risk-seeking and bet 300k and lose all of it in a 1/8th cumulative chance shot. WTF.

The idea here is to make an optimal stopping rule with a higher expected payoff. The correct "strategy" to this betting system would actually be in the form of a large table indicating how to hedge depending on amount won or lost on the immediate margin. Finding the rule though is a very hard task.

So never ever bet what you aren't willing to lose -- if you manage to win big, don't get greedy. Try to partition off what you won to at least ensure that you don't overbet.