Might as well make another thread since a few people along with myself enjoyed the one I made last year. The tropics are starting to heat up anyway.
Previous thread in case anyone wants to read or anything:
Just for some base information.
Right now, as well as being expected to last through the winter of 2009, we're in what we call an "el nino" pattern. I'm sure you all have heard it sometime before.
El Nino is basically the shift of the warm ocean waters in the eastern pacific oceans (between South America and Indonesia) towards the South America region. It's not rare, per-say, but scientists still do not know the cause of it. Warm ocean waters moving closer towards the coast of Southern America create a more "conducive" environment for stronger storms and torrential rains. A simple shift of a few hundred miles drastically effects the rest of hemisphere and globe, for the most part, and the effects of an El Nino can really be seen in the winter seasons across America. Essentially, for our sake, it's a fluctuaction in the normal trade winds that are found that area. The normal winds that drive "typical" seasonal conditions are shifted, thus, creating a different weather pattern across America. With El Nino, the Atlantic Tropical and Hurricane season tends to weaken, due to a numerous amount of subtle changes that El Nino helps create in the Atlantic, hence why it's the middle of August and we are now first getting our tropical systems develop. If anyone wants to know more on El Nino, ENSO, La Nina, or anything else, let me know and i'll go into full detail about it.
Anyway, the reason why I'm starting this up again is that we not only have one tropical system, but three, all forming within the last three days or so.
1) Tropical Storm Claudette
2) Tropical Depression Ana
3) Tropical Storm Bill
1) TS Claudette -
Claudette is the main focus right now, due to it being relatively close to making landfall in the pan handle of Florida. While not anything seriously threatening, Claudette is going to cause flooding and some nuisance with it's weak winds. Here's a brief overview of Claudette:
Current Location and projected path:
Here is it's current radar loop:
And alerts:
(These are self updating images, so things won't be the same as when I post them)
So in general, statistics as of 6:30 pm:
Max Winds: 50 mph (sustained) with gusts up to 65mph
Landfall: Between Tallahassee and Mobile, Alabama. Somewhere within the next 4-8 hours.
Rainfall:
So yeah, just keep in mind if you live in the area that flooding is actually the real deal.. don't go thinking a small stream of water can't drag your truck down the road.
I'll do another update on Claudette afterwards.. later tonight probably. It's not that big of a deal.
2) Tropical Depression Ana-
Update:
Well, Ana.. Ana.. Yeah, not much to talk about with Ana at the moment or if the current forecast actually holds water (no pun intended). Ana started off as the initial tropical system, kicking off the 2009 season a few days ago. This pic will display Ana's track and life for you so I don't need to write it out:
As you can see, TD-->TS-->TD. Ana is a weak slug. With much disruption from the islands in the Caribbean. With no open ocean to strengthen in, Ana won't become much of a threat for anyone until, actually, if, she even reaches the gulf, which she is currently forecasted to.
Here's the current satellite:
Current 5 day track:
As you can see, not much strengthening and not much of a threat. However, we're still far out. The atmosphere is still conducive for Ana to strengthen if it emerges still intact after the Caribbean islands, which is something I'll look in to. Other than that, this is pretty boring.. which is sad, because as a weather enthusiast and soon to be Meteorologist, I like storms
, but obviously it's never good for humanity if something dangerous was to make landfall.
3) Tropical Storm, rather, Hurricane Bill-
Well, well.. like expected, Bill is now a hurricane! The first of the season, in fact. Here's some quick images of Bill and statistics.
Current Sat Image:
Current Dvorak IR (I'll get to this in a bit)
Current WU Enhanced Sat:
As you can see, I hope, Bill definitely is looking more impressive and more organized. The shades of bright pink/red/gray (depending on which image) in the inner bands of Bill are strengthening, hence why the colors. The higher the color on the scale, the higher the cloud tops are for that section on the storm. The higher the cloud tops, the higher the probability of a stronger storm (in laments terms lol).
Here's the 5 day outlook on Bill:
And I'll also include the Computer Model runs (if you want to know more, read my other thread on models)
As you can see, once again, much of the models are in close agreement of the track of Bill other than the UKMET, which keeps it on a southern track. Personally, follow the cluster of lines and that's where Bill will end up tracking to. There's a lot of reasoning behind this and going into it will be probably confusing to most, so I'll just be brief:
Bill is on a track to "recurve", or head back out to sea, if all stays the same. It's quite unfortunate, for the northeastern folk', as if there wasn't a strong trough (a broad area of low pressure with no "enclosed" low pressure system), or rather, a "front" exiting the eastern U.S as Bill was heading towards it, you/we would be in line for a possible landfall somewhere on the coast. () Oh well! Saves lives, right?
All in all for tracking the storm.. it's one for the fishies. Simple.
In terms of intensity, which is still fun to track, Bill is forecasted to become a Major Hurricane (Cat 3+) sometime within the next 96 hours. It will be fun to see what Bill will eventually reach, as the path and the atmospheric conditions are really favorable for development. Now.. I mentioned something about Dvorak IR earlier, which I'll do a little explaining about so people know what the hell I'm talking about and how the NWS/NOAA classify storms and strengths with storms being located so far out.
I'm not quite sure when the NWS/NOAA/Navy use one or the other, but I'm going to go out on a leg and suggest the distance and threat are the main items that are used when using either the Hurricane Reconnaisance Airplane (Hurricane Hunters) or the Dvorak Technique for measuring a tropical systems' strength and properites.
Bill above, who may be too far or not an immediate threat to the U.S or any human civilized areas, has to be "looked into" to determine the strength of the system. Meteorologists do not and cannot just look at an image of the storm and classify it's strength or pressure, and since it is not an immediate threat, obviously the government isn't going to issue an aircraft mission out in the middle of the ocean. This is essentially how the Dvorak Technique came about.
The Dvorak Technique is a way to accurately guesstimate a tropical system's strength using scaling from an Infared Satellite image. It was founded in 1974 by a man named, yeah, Vernon Dvorak, and has been used ever since for predicting tropical systems. To avoid going too in depth on the technique, I'll lay it out in easy terms.
The picture I posted above in Dvorak IR, is an Infared image that is in a color scale that corresponds to a T-Number. Each color on the scale is represented by a number (not shown in that image), which thus is connected to an estimate of wind speed (in knots) and pressure. This is due to the overall predictability of all tropical systems; most systems in similar environments will develop similarly which allows the scale to exist. Usually, when using the Dvorak Technique, a system is followed and categorized into a "pattern". Many patterns exist, but more so, most hurricanes or tropical systems have four or five main patterns they fall into.
IE: A curved band pattern, which can be seen from regular satellite images of a storm. The storm is analyzed through the image, which for this, a system will have curved bands and no central low, will have broad curved cloud bands surrounding it, and will then be assesed a T-Number from that.
Another example, and what Bill currently is, is a CDO pattern, or Central Dense Overcast pattern. Bill, which can be seen in the images above, has no "eye", has a central area of dense clouds over it's central low pressure region, thus falling into this category. It is strengthening, seen from regular satelitte images, and thus falls under this category. From this, you take the IR image in the Dvorak scale, and assess Bill a T-Number. This T-Number will correspond to a set scale of winds and pressure that can be assumed from the scale itself.
Here's the table for the technique:
(I didn't go into CI number, but assume that's the T-Scale number)
From the recent discussion on Bill:
000
WTNT43 KNHC 170856
TCDAT3
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 AM AST MON AUG 17 2009
INFRARED SATELLITE PICTURES REVEAL AN IMPRESSIVE MASS OF DEEP
CONVECTION...WITH A LARGE AREA OF -70C AND EVEN -80C CLOUD
TOPS WITHIN A WELL-ORGANIZED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. IN
ADDITION...SEVERAL WELL-DEFINED BANDS ARE NOTED OUTSIDE OF THE
CENTRAL CONVECTIVE CORE. A 0142 UTC TRMM PASS INDICATED A DISTINCT
CONVECTIVE RING AROUND THE CENTER...ALSO SUGGESTIVE OF INCREASED
ORGANIZATION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE AT 4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALONG
WITH CURRENT TRENDS...SUPPORT INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO
65 KT. THIS MAKES BILL THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2009 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON.
RECENT SATELLITE CENTER FIXES ARE LESS DOUBTFUL THAN EARLIER AND
YIELD A RATHER RAPID INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/19. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS BILL IS STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
WEAKNESS CURRENTLY ALONG 50W...WHICH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ERODING A
PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AS THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE
SUBSTANTIAL...A MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TURNS BILL ON A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD COURSE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION
IS THE UKMET WHICH INSISTS ON A MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK IS INITIALLY NUDGED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD IN THE
SHORT-TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR A MORE CERTAIN INITIAL POSITION...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THEREAFTER.
BILL IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
LOW SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST UNDER 27C THROUGH 24
HOURS. SIMILAR TO BEFORE...THE GFDL/HWRF INDICATE A NEARLY FLAT
RATE OF INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...PERHAPS
REFLECTING MARGINALLY WARM WATERS. IN SPITE OF THIS...THE SHIPS
RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX HAS CONTINUED FORECASTING A RATHER HIGH
PROBABILITY OF A 30 KT INTENSITY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES A CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW BILL TO BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT...CLOSEST TO
THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...SEVERAL OF THE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING
WESTERLY SHEAR AS BILL IS SEPARATED FROM ITS FAVORABLE...UPPER-
LEVEL SUPPORT. CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
INDICATES MINOR WEAKENING NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
IT APPEARS AS IF THE CENTER OF BILL WILL PASS VERY CLOSE TO NOAA
BUOY 41041 LATER THIS MORNING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/0900Z 13.8N 44.0W 65 KT
12HR VT 17/1800Z 14.4N 46.4W 75 KT
24HR VT 18/0600Z 15.1N 49.0W 85 KT
36HR VT 18/1800Z 16.0N 51.6W 95 KT
48HR VT 19/0600Z 17.3N 54.0W 105 KT
72HR VT 20/0600Z 20.5N 59.0W 110 KT
96HR VT 21/0600Z 25.0N 63.5W 105 KT
120HR VT 22/0600Z 30.1N 66.5W 100 KT
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
The red highlighted 4.0 is the current T-scale number assessed to Bill. Relate that number to the chart for an Atlantic location, and we can see where the NWS derived it's numbers from, hence the 65 kts or 75 mph winds, which makes Bill a Hurricane. (74mph+ winds is a Cat 1 hurricane)
Yeah, so, hopefully someone learned something with this and it wasn't too complicated.
Anyway, it's almost 6 am and I need to sleep. I will update things tomorrow as needed.
In the meantime.. if anyone has any questions or anything, definitely ask them. I love talking about this stuff
Previous thread in case anyone wants to read or anything:
Just for some base information.
Right now, as well as being expected to last through the winter of 2009, we're in what we call an "el nino" pattern. I'm sure you all have heard it sometime before.
El Nino is basically the shift of the warm ocean waters in the eastern pacific oceans (between South America and Indonesia) towards the South America region. It's not rare, per-say, but scientists still do not know the cause of it. Warm ocean waters moving closer towards the coast of Southern America create a more "conducive" environment for stronger storms and torrential rains. A simple shift of a few hundred miles drastically effects the rest of hemisphere and globe, for the most part, and the effects of an El Nino can really be seen in the winter seasons across America. Essentially, for our sake, it's a fluctuaction in the normal trade winds that are found that area. The normal winds that drive "typical" seasonal conditions are shifted, thus, creating a different weather pattern across America. With El Nino, the Atlantic Tropical and Hurricane season tends to weaken, due to a numerous amount of subtle changes that El Nino helps create in the Atlantic, hence why it's the middle of August and we are now first getting our tropical systems develop. If anyone wants to know more on El Nino, ENSO, La Nina, or anything else, let me know and i'll go into full detail about it.
Anyway, the reason why I'm starting this up again is that we not only have one tropical system, but three, all forming within the last three days or so.
1) Tropical Storm Claudette
2) Tropical Depression Ana
3) Tropical Storm Bill
1) TS Claudette -
Claudette is the main focus right now, due to it being relatively close to making landfall in the pan handle of Florida. While not anything seriously threatening, Claudette is going to cause flooding and some nuisance with it's weak winds. Here's a brief overview of Claudette:
Current Location and projected path:
Here is it's current radar loop:
And alerts:
(These are self updating images, so things won't be the same as when I post them)
So in general, statistics as of 6:30 pm:
Max Winds: 50 mph (sustained) with gusts up to 65mph
Landfall: Between Tallahassee and Mobile, Alabama. Somewhere within the next 4-8 hours.
Rainfall:
So yeah, just keep in mind if you live in the area that flooding is actually the real deal.. don't go thinking a small stream of water can't drag your truck down the road.
I'll do another update on Claudette afterwards.. later tonight probably. It's not that big of a deal.
2) Tropical Depression Ana-
Update:
Well, Ana.. Ana.. Yeah, not much to talk about with Ana at the moment or if the current forecast actually holds water (no pun intended). Ana started off as the initial tropical system, kicking off the 2009 season a few days ago. This pic will display Ana's track and life for you so I don't need to write it out:
As you can see, TD-->TS-->TD. Ana is a weak slug. With much disruption from the islands in the Caribbean. With no open ocean to strengthen in, Ana won't become much of a threat for anyone until, actually, if, she even reaches the gulf, which she is currently forecasted to.
Here's the current satellite:
Current 5 day track:
As you can see, not much strengthening and not much of a threat. However, we're still far out. The atmosphere is still conducive for Ana to strengthen if it emerges still intact after the Caribbean islands, which is something I'll look in to. Other than that, this is pretty boring.. which is sad, because as a weather enthusiast and soon to be Meteorologist, I like storms
, but obviously it's never good for humanity if something dangerous was to make landfall.3) Tropical Storm, rather, Hurricane Bill-
Well, well.. like expected, Bill is now a hurricane! The first of the season, in fact. Here's some quick images of Bill and statistics.
Current Sat Image:
Current Dvorak IR (I'll get to this in a bit)
Current WU Enhanced Sat:
As you can see, I hope, Bill definitely is looking more impressive and more organized. The shades of bright pink/red/gray (depending on which image) in the inner bands of Bill are strengthening, hence why the colors. The higher the color on the scale, the higher the cloud tops are for that section on the storm. The higher the cloud tops, the higher the probability of a stronger storm (in laments terms lol).
Here's the 5 day outlook on Bill:
And I'll also include the Computer Model runs (if you want to know more, read my other thread on models)
As you can see, once again, much of the models are in close agreement of the track of Bill other than the UKMET, which keeps it on a southern track. Personally, follow the cluster of lines and that's where Bill will end up tracking to. There's a lot of reasoning behind this and going into it will be probably confusing to most, so I'll just be brief:
Bill is on a track to "recurve", or head back out to sea, if all stays the same. It's quite unfortunate, for the northeastern folk', as if there wasn't a strong trough (a broad area of low pressure with no "enclosed" low pressure system), or rather, a "front" exiting the eastern U.S as Bill was heading towards it, you/we would be in line for a possible landfall somewhere on the coast. (
) Oh well! Saves lives, right? All in all for tracking the storm.. it's one for the fishies. Simple.
In terms of intensity, which is still fun to track, Bill is forecasted to become a Major Hurricane (Cat 3+) sometime within the next 96 hours. It will be fun to see what Bill will eventually reach, as the path and the atmospheric conditions are really favorable for development. Now.. I mentioned something about Dvorak IR earlier, which I'll do a little explaining about so people know what the hell I'm talking about and how the NWS/NOAA classify storms and strengths with storms being located so far out.
I'm not quite sure when the NWS/NOAA/Navy use one or the other, but I'm going to go out on a leg and suggest the distance and threat are the main items that are used when using either the Hurricane Reconnaisance Airplane (Hurricane Hunters) or the Dvorak Technique for measuring a tropical systems' strength and properites.
Bill above, who may be too far or not an immediate threat to the U.S or any human civilized areas, has to be "looked into" to determine the strength of the system. Meteorologists do not and cannot just look at an image of the storm and classify it's strength or pressure, and since it is not an immediate threat, obviously the government isn't going to issue an aircraft mission out in the middle of the ocean. This is essentially how the Dvorak Technique came about.
The Dvorak Technique is a way to accurately guesstimate a tropical system's strength using scaling from an Infared Satellite image. It was founded in 1974 by a man named, yeah, Vernon Dvorak, and has been used ever since for predicting tropical systems. To avoid going too in depth on the technique, I'll lay it out in easy terms.
The picture I posted above in Dvorak IR, is an Infared image that is in a color scale that corresponds to a T-Number. Each color on the scale is represented by a number (not shown in that image), which thus is connected to an estimate of wind speed (in knots) and pressure. This is due to the overall predictability of all tropical systems; most systems in similar environments will develop similarly which allows the scale to exist. Usually, when using the Dvorak Technique, a system is followed and categorized into a "pattern". Many patterns exist, but more so, most hurricanes or tropical systems have four or five main patterns they fall into.
IE: A curved band pattern, which can be seen from regular satellite images of a storm. The storm is analyzed through the image, which for this, a system will have curved bands and no central low, will have broad curved cloud bands surrounding it, and will then be assesed a T-Number from that.
Another example, and what Bill currently is, is a CDO pattern, or Central Dense Overcast pattern. Bill, which can be seen in the images above, has no "eye", has a central area of dense clouds over it's central low pressure region, thus falling into this category. It is strengthening, seen from regular satelitte images, and thus falls under this category. From this, you take the IR image in the Dvorak scale, and assess Bill a T-Number. This T-Number will correspond to a set scale of winds and pressure that can be assumed from the scale itself.
Here's the table for the technique:
Code:
CI MWS MWS MSLP MSLP Saffir-Simpson Number (Knots) (MPH) (Atlantic) (NW Pacific) Category 1 25 KTS 29 MPH (Approximate) 1.5 25 KTS 29 MPH 2 30 KTS 35 MPH 1009 mb 1000 mb 2.5 35 KTS 40 MPH 1005 mb 997 mb 3 45 KTS 52 MPH 1000 mb 991 mb 3.5 55 KTS 63 MPH 994 mb 984 mb 4 65 KTS 75 MPH 987 mb 976 mb 1 (64-83 KTS) 4.5 77 KTS 89 MPH 979 mb 966 mb 1 (64-83 KTS); 2 (84-96 KTS) 5 90 KTS 104 MPH 970 mb 954 mb 2 (84-96 KTS); 3 (97-113 KTS) 5.5 102 KTS 117 MPH 960 mb 941 mb 3 (97-113 KTS) 6 115 KTS 132 MPH 948 mb 927 mb 4 (114-135 KTS) 6.5 127 KTS 146 MPH 935 mb 914 mb 4 (114-135 KTS) 7 140 KTS 161 MPH 921 mb 898 mb 5 (136+ KTS) 7.5 155 KTS 178 MPH 906 mb 879 mb 5 (136+ KTS) 8 170 KTS 196 MPH 890 mb 858 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
From the recent discussion on Bill:
000
WTNT43 KNHC 170856
TCDAT3
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 AM AST MON AUG 17 2009
INFRARED SATELLITE PICTURES REVEAL AN IMPRESSIVE MASS OF DEEP
CONVECTION...WITH A LARGE AREA OF -70C AND EVEN -80C CLOUD
TOPS WITHIN A WELL-ORGANIZED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. IN
ADDITION...SEVERAL WELL-DEFINED BANDS ARE NOTED OUTSIDE OF THE
CENTRAL CONVECTIVE CORE. A 0142 UTC TRMM PASS INDICATED A DISTINCT
CONVECTIVE RING AROUND THE CENTER...ALSO SUGGESTIVE OF INCREASED
ORGANIZATION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE AT 4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALONG
WITH CURRENT TRENDS...SUPPORT INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO
65 KT. THIS MAKES BILL THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2009 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON.
RECENT SATELLITE CENTER FIXES ARE LESS DOUBTFUL THAN EARLIER AND
YIELD A RATHER RAPID INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/19. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS BILL IS STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
WEAKNESS CURRENTLY ALONG 50W...WHICH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ERODING A
PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AS THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE
SUBSTANTIAL...A MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TURNS BILL ON A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD COURSE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION
IS THE UKMET WHICH INSISTS ON A MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK IS INITIALLY NUDGED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD IN THE
SHORT-TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR A MORE CERTAIN INITIAL POSITION...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THEREAFTER.
BILL IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
LOW SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST UNDER 27C THROUGH 24
HOURS. SIMILAR TO BEFORE...THE GFDL/HWRF INDICATE A NEARLY FLAT
RATE OF INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...PERHAPS
REFLECTING MARGINALLY WARM WATERS. IN SPITE OF THIS...THE SHIPS
RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX HAS CONTINUED FORECASTING A RATHER HIGH
PROBABILITY OF A 30 KT INTENSITY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES A CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW BILL TO BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT...CLOSEST TO
THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...SEVERAL OF THE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING
WESTERLY SHEAR AS BILL IS SEPARATED FROM ITS FAVORABLE...UPPER-
LEVEL SUPPORT. CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
INDICATES MINOR WEAKENING NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
IT APPEARS AS IF THE CENTER OF BILL WILL PASS VERY CLOSE TO NOAA
BUOY 41041 LATER THIS MORNING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/0900Z 13.8N 44.0W 65 KT
12HR VT 17/1800Z 14.4N 46.4W 75 KT
24HR VT 18/0600Z 15.1N 49.0W 85 KT
36HR VT 18/1800Z 16.0N 51.6W 95 KT
48HR VT 19/0600Z 17.3N 54.0W 105 KT
72HR VT 20/0600Z 20.5N 59.0W 110 KT
96HR VT 21/0600Z 25.0N 63.5W 105 KT
120HR VT 22/0600Z 30.1N 66.5W 100 KT
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
The red highlighted 4.0 is the current T-scale number assessed to Bill. Relate that number to the chart for an Atlantic location, and we can see where the NWS derived it's numbers from, hence the 65 kts or 75 mph winds, which makes Bill a Hurricane. (74mph+ winds is a Cat 1 hurricane)
Yeah, so, hopefully someone learned something with this and it wasn't too complicated
.Anyway, it's almost 6 am and I need to sleep. I will update things tomorrow as needed.
In the meantime.. if anyone has any questions or anything, definitely ask them. I love talking about this stuff
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