09' Hurricane Season

[scottish]

Re: 09' Hurricane Season



Just a quick look.. getting impressive. Definitely formed an eye. Hugeeee convection in the north western quadrant that is impressive as well. Next update you should see Bill become a Cat. 3 hurricane.

Edit: Also, if anyone is interested, this clearly shows the explosive convection.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[A2P]

Re: 09' Hurricane Season

Billy Mays getting his revenge

Seriously though I hope it doesn't wreck NJ. My dad was living in New Orleans when Katrina happened and it wrecked his house. Had trouble finding a new job too. :/

[scottish]

Re: 09' Hurricane Season

Reach has to worry about this more than anyone else..
11PM Update, I'll just let the image speak for themselves.

[Reach]

Re: 09' Hurricane Season

Jesus Christ. Holding out in my house during Juan last time was bad enough. There are no trees in my backyard naturally, but there was one of about 20 feet there when I woke up, everything our yard destroyed etc.

Not again D:

Thanks for the information Scottish. Great thread, very informative.

Will definitely be keeping up with the updates for this.

[TC_Halogen]

Re: 09' Hurricane Season

Is the hurricane's span going to be enough to graze the coast lines to cause some rains? I know you mentioned strong rip currents and some decently high winds, but it's still not quite as far out as forecasted a few days ago.

Looks like northern New England is going to have to brace themselves for some minor flooding.

[scottish]

Re: 09' Hurricane Season

No problem man! I love doing this =p.
As for making landfall near you.. where in NS are you? Location is really key to how bad you'll get something, if you even do. There's a huge possibility of Bill continuing to curve out to sea and miss you entirely.. then there's the possibility of skimming the coast, making direct landfall, etc., it's just still too far out and we'll need to wait to see the timing of the trough coming through. Either way though, I can guarantee you that it will not be anywhere near the threat it is now; expect it to be either a Cat 2/Cat 1 storm. I'll update next time I can, probably tomorrow as I wont have access to anything until about 5 am in terms of updates and visible sat images.

Also, AJ, it's all about location. Most of the time, a hurricanes' strongest quadrant is the northeastern, most of the time. Grazing 300 miles off coast would churn up the waters, probably kick back some showers/storms from time to time depending on location, and obviously make things a bit windier, but it's nothing to be worried about. It would be a big problem, however, if this did end up coming closer to the coast and hitting northern NE/Canada/NS directly. We've had a pretty wet summer so far up in the northeast and this would spell flooding and downed trees (from flooding) all over the place. It's also not safe due to the time, which is probably nearing the best time for beach season (almost september, up here). We'll see what happens and I'll keep this updated.

[DotKritic]

Re: 09' Hurricane Season

Must suck to be living in Bermuda right now.

[Reach]

Re: 09' Hurricane Season

No problem man! I love doing this =p.
As for making landfall near you.. where in NS are you? Location is really key to how bad you'll get something, if you even do. There's a huge possibility of Bill continuing to curve out to sea and miss you entirely.. then there's the possibility of skimming the coast, making direct landfall, etc., it's just still too far out and we'll need to wait to see the timing of the trough coming through. Either way though, I can guarantee you that it will not be anywhere near the threat it is now; expect it to be either a Cat 2/Cat 1 storm. I'll update next time I can, probably tomorrow as I wont have access to anything until about 5 am in terms of updates and visible sat images.

I live in Halifax, so right on the coast there. Juan's eye hit me essentially dead on last time. It was really bad.

I know, I won't have to deal with a category 4, and I'm thankful of that, but a category 2 is still enough to cause some heavy damage, especially when Nova Scotia is not used to this kind of thing. As such, I'll be keeping a close eye on this bad boy.

We never get hit by hurricanes. They always downgrade to tropicals...at least, they did until recently it seems :P

[scottish]

Re: 09' Hurricane Season

Definitely agree with you, Reach. I'm sure most of the New England coast + NS are completely oblivious to hurricane/tropical storm precautions and dangers. We've been hit by a few storms/tropical/subtropical over the last few years.. but it still does not compare to learning from experience. You would think people would learn the from the danger and destruction the gulf coast and other countries receive from storms, but everything is always in the mindset of "it won't happen to me", "no worries, we'll ride it out", but then face the fact that the danger is imminent. I'm sure a Category 2 storm hitting or even grazing the coast will claim a life or two; a life or two that could have easily been prevented. This is the whole reason why I want to go into the field, for the weather can be predicted to a certain extent and is absolutely amazing. New things and different changes all the time, etc. It's just interesting and people should really be more educated in the field, rather than just earth studies and physical and earth sciences through high school, which rarely touch in on the field.

Aside from my rant, I should get a better look into how close Bill will near NS and NE. It would be one of those "why the hell is it doing that?" type of situations if it did break off from the recurve path it should be taking, but it's happened before so I would not write anything off.

[JurseyRider734]

Re: 09' Hurricane Season

My question to you is why do you post things like that? And then expect people to know it's sarcasm when I really don't know how you post?

I post things like that because that's who I am. Obviously it's worked out for me. Not only was what I said not your business, but it was not addressed to you. Maybe one click on scottish's FFR Profile button would make it pretty damn clear that we're together. Not my fault that you decided to butt in when no one was talking to you. And even if I were not being sarcastic, I'm pretty sure scottish wouldn't need some basically unheard of person backing him up instead of defending his own self against me.

Anyway my really awesome (sarcasm) boyfriend told me to "be nice" so I'll let him get back to having a huge hard-on over weather.

[Minion133]

Re: 09' Hurricane Season

gay

[scottish]

Re: 09' Hurricane Season

For Reach,
(These will once again update at 0Z tomorrow, so I'm sure you'll see these within 24 hours)













This is just the GFS, which does handle US storms well, but is taken lightly with intensity of hurricanes and everything else. It does hold some credibility with forecasting track, though.

[TC_Halogen]

Re: 09' Hurricane Season

Damn, Bill's a Cat. 4 already. O_o

I did not expect it to intensify so quickly. It's going to most certainly hit Category 5 at this rate.

Also, some advisories here:
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.0N 56.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 75SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.6N 59.4W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 175SE 100SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 22.5N 62.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 175SE 100SW 180NW.

Shy of 145 MPH max wind forecast, but the gusts are forecasted to be near 180. Yikes.

[scottish]

Re: 09' Hurricane Season

Just a small update before I update this later..
Bill isn't completely written off in terms of hitting the very north eastern US, Cape Cod, Etc. The trough that is moving through could tilt negatively and allow some more room to move east before getting picked up by the very same trough. If this does happen, expect a few states to be effected by Bill and NS definitely being hit. I'll update later.

[MrGiggles]

Re: 09' Hurricane Season

sup bro from Martha's Vineyard, where 80% of the Edgartown harbor is being lifted onto land due to concerns over hurricane Bill, making it nearly impossible for us to get our own boat out.

Hurricanes are pretty obnoxious. Now help me out, I forget. Do hurricane name genders alternate from hurricane to hurricane or year to year?