09' Hurricane Season

[TC_Halogen]

Re: 09' Hurricane Season

Latest statement has Bill at 100 mph--category 2, with a central pressure of 967 mb. Probability charts that NOAA have released showing the potential of Bill reaching 125 MPH, into the upper category 3 level.

Forecast models haven't really changed much though, it's seeming like it's going to make the curve that was expected.

Ana is pretty much non-existant.

[scottish]

Re: 09' Hurricane Season

Glad you updated it. As soon as I'm situated with a few things I'll update everything.. expect it sometime tonight.

[A2P]

Re: 09' Hurricane Season

damn

[DotKritic]

Re: 09' Hurricane Season

damn

Yes.

[scottish]

Re: 09' Hurricane Season

Update as of 4:00 AM.

So we're now down to just Bill, as Claudette made landfall in Florida and did not do much of anything and Ana has dissipated due to it's interaction with the Caribbean Islands. Ana is still marked as a "remnant low" and will continue to track over the islands and eventually trek up the Florida Coast. Not much to talk about this other than some more rain, embedded thunderstorms and the risk for tornadoes; all typical Florida weather.

As for Bill, well, here's the current:





(I would provide non enhanced sat. images, but it's currently dark over the ocean)

Current Track:


Per NWS:


Models:


GFDL Run: (Another model. Please take lightly )



Well, as you can see, not much has changed on Bill other than he is currently a Category 2 Hurricane, or with around ~100mph winds. Once again, as predicted, Bill will continue to strengthen as there is no upper/mid level shear to dismantle or prevent Bill, nor land. The current track is still following the "recurve" path, bringing Bill within a few hundred miles of the New England coast and then turning north to north eastward after a few days.
The only impressive thing to talk about is Bill's strength, as I really doubt Bill will effect the US with anything other than dangerous rip currents and maybe some winds (nothing remotely dangerous to talk about). Forecasting can only go so far; predicting the atmospheric environment around Bill is the key to the forecast itself. Anything that occurs in the Hurricane, such as a inner core development (which we're looking for Bill to form, currently), is almost unpredictable. Computer models and Satellite Imagery can only go so far as well. The main question meteorologists face at the moment is, How strong will Bill become? The storm has the warm ocean waters. Is facing no shear. Has no land mass to interact with. Etc. To what extent will Bill strengthen?
Personally, I see Bill becoming a Category 4 hurricane, without a doubt. Bill can easily reach 130+ mph winds if it forms an inner core and develops an eye before it reaches cooler and more northern Atlantic waters. If it does not, oh well, not much to follow. The GFDL run up there puts Bill into the Cat. 5 status for a brief amount of time as well, so who knows. As of now, if Bill does indeed set up an inner core and starts to get working, we will see an impressive storm. Simple.
My next post will basically show you better images of Bill and explain what the hell I'm talking about. Right now, since it's dark out, regular imagery isn't available and we have to rely on IR/Water Vapor, etc. It becomes much clearer and more impressive and aesthetically appealing during the day time, so I will follow up with an update then.

[Prime8]

Re: 09' Hurricane Season

I don't see Bill getting much higher than Category 4. Maybe if it slowed in movement while it's closer to the Caribbean, it may sneak up to 5, but that's a stretch.

[TC_Halogen]

Re: 09' Hurricane Season

It looks like the forecast models have pushed Bill a bit more eastward than first expected.

At the moment--it is in warm water, and it has been pointed out that there is no shear to weaken Bill at all.

I agree with Prime8 here, I'm not so sure that it will peak at Category 5 either. It's not moving terribly slow either. There doesn't look to be enough room for it to travel versus the amount of time it has to arrive in the cooler waters.

130 mph does seem like a reasonable strength for Bill, but it all depends on how quickly Bill makes a beeline to the northern waters. Move too fast and it probably won't hit Cat 4 (I don't see it falling short by much either, at the least 120 mph). Move too slow, and the GFDL run might be more of an accurate representation with a Cat. 5 hurricane.

[TC_llama499]

Re: 09' Hurricane Season

im actually stoked on the storms coming. i talked to someone from NASA and he said there is going to be a bigger storm then el nino this year and that they have been tracking it for 10 years haha epic snowboarding season on the way

[Reach]

Re: 09' Hurricane Season

I live in Nova Scotia, which is on the east coast of Canada. I see the projection you just posted doesn't quite come up that far, though, it looks as if Bill is going to come suspiciously close to Nova Scotia?

Anymore information on this Scottish? I'm a bit worried about this one shifting again like hurricane Juan did a few years ago.

[scottish]

Re: 09' Hurricane Season

Definitely, Reach. I'll throw in an update in a little bit. In the model runs, Nova Scotia does look to be as if it's going to be hit, but it's still quite a bit early to determine if it will or what Bill will be like. I'll get everything in the update.

[scottish]

Re: 09' Hurricane Season

Here's an update on Bill:

The usual:






Those are just current visible Sat images. Looks pretty impressive!

Here is the current forecasted track:


Current Model runs:



Not much to talk about, but if I'm decent at judging strength from the Dvorak T, I would suggest Bill has strengthened since it's last update (105 mph/963mb) and I'd probably put it around 115mph/950's~mb. Bill has been undergoing an inner core replacement cycle, one of which it will form an eye, replace it by breaking down it's inner core, which it allows better organization and it's winds will increase. But.. definitely, Bill is strengthening.
For Reach, if you take a look at the model runs, Bill does come awfully close. Obviously there will be some weakening at the point, as well as a speed increase due to being picked up by a front that will be exiting off the eastern U.S. For what it's worth, the GFS model at the 126 hour time frame places Bill awfully close to NS. Here's a quick peak:


(these are all self updating, still. It would take a crap ton of time to save all the images and put them up on pb)

So, for now.. I'll keep an eye on it for you.. but it could go either way. I wish there was more than one satellite that was fixed on Bill so I could show you some impressive images, but there is not . I'll update this once the 5pm advisory comes out from the NWS and let you know what the latest is.

[25thhour]

Re: 09' Hurricane Season

Hurricanes dont hit my town. Northern BC only gets Blizzards.

[skyfox_]

Re: 09' Hurricane Season

i wonder what southern state will get deystroyed this year...

[Ephraim Desole]

Re: 09' Hurricane Season

I hope it's not mine. ;_;

[scottish]

Re: 09' Hurricane Season

5pm update:
000
WTNT43 KNHC 182047
TCDAT3
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 PM AST TUE AUG 18 2009

BILL REMAINS A VERY IMPRESSIVE AND SYMMETRIC HURRICANE IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING
BILL THIS AFTERNOON REPORTED PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 114
KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE SFMR OBSERVED MAXIMUM WINDS
AROUND 85 KT IN EACH QUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE. USING A BLEND OF
THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 95 KT.
THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
90 AND 102 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/14. THE FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. BILL IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS A
WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF A STRONG TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE CHANGED VERY LITTLE THROUGH 48
HOURS...BUT HAS GENERALLY SHIFTED WESTWARD DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS BEFORE THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ON THE RIGHT
SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE WHILE THE UKMET IS ON THE LEFT. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED THROUGH DAY 2...AND HAS NOT BEEN
ADJUSTED APPRECIABLY BEYOND THAT TIME AS WELL. THE NEW FORECAST
LIES BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE USUALLY
WELL-PERFORMING ECMWF AND GFS MODELS.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AND SSTS GRADUALLY
INCREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE. BEYOND 72 HOURS...DECREASING SSTS AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
SHOULD INDUCE SLOW WEAKENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/2100Z 16.6N 52.2W 95 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 17.5N 54.3W 105 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 18.9N 56.9W 115 KT
36HR VT 20/0600Z 20.7N 59.3W 115 KT
48HR VT 20/1800Z 22.6N 61.8W 115 KT
72HR VT 21/1800Z 27.3N 65.8W 110 KT
96HR VT 22/1800Z 33.5N 68.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 23/1800Z 40.5N 65.5W 85 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI


As I stated earlier, yes, Bill is around 110 mph now.
It's also quite impressive that they recorded 114 kts in the northeastern quadrant. That equals out to be about 135mph gusts.