TWG 195 - D6

[FreezinIce]

Re: TWG 195 - D6

im glad you answered but i derped and completely missed the part of your claim post where u explain why u tracked him so yeah oops

[mellon_collie]

Re: TWG 195 - D6

im glad you answered but i derped and completely missed the part of your claim post where u explain why u tracked him so yeah oops

its ok lol I'm happy I'm on my pc and able to respond in a timely manner

[the sun fan]

Re: TWG 195 - D6

raeko's claim is at odds with Xiz's because she would've seen nothing happen

[the sun fan]

Re: TWG 195 - D6

sorry, she wouldn't have gotten a result*

[the sun fan]

Re: TWG 195 - D6

There are 0 setups with both of us being real**

oh, its at odds anyways

[fatfuck42]

Re: TWG 195 - D6

The only reason I can think that xiz would fakeclaim is if the wolves figured out raeko's a PR and thought the trade was worth it for whatever reason. Doesn't sound worthwhile to me, though. Can't be w/w either since a town massclaim would sink xiz.

Sorry raeko, it's hard to imagine xiz being the faker here.

[the sun fan]

Re: TWG 195 - D6

a jailkeeper or bodyguard should claim, because it outs xiz as fake, and I don't think we'd get there otherwise today

literally any investigative CAN claim if they want to hard-out raeko, but I think we're probably killing her regardless

innocent child definitely should claim imo though if they exist, as it both outs raeko and gives town an extra confirmed

lastly, shadow_god should probably claim if he is any role at all, we actually do need to wait for him to do this

if he is, xiz should target someone else tonight

anyone see anything wrong with this?

[Xiz]

Re: TWG 195 - D6

there is a very high probability that it was a doctor save that caused the no kill last night

Not really.
For your world, there would be a 33% chance of a doctor.
For me, 20%

[FreezinIce]

Re: TWG 195 - D6

sorry raeko but i think the right move here is to ride with xiz

as much as i would like to believe you, your claim had it right on the money. There is no reason for xiz to claim roleblocker as a wolf here for several reasons

1) From a numbers perspective 1:1 trading a wolf for a town here preemptively is a losing move and theres no way that would work out where he lives if he was lying. This is made even worse by the fact that the wolf team is already down 1 member.

2) Claiming roleblocker is a bad fakeclaim because not only is it not safe since it practically forces you into a thunderdome with whoever your claiming you blocked, but it provides no benefit for the wolf team when it comes to hunting blues. At least if he claims doctor or another protective role he draws out the real one for a CC, or actually gets believed best case scenario. If he fakeclaims roleblocker and says he blocked someone and they flip green there is just no upside there.


====


probably more points but you get the idea.

[the sun fan]

Re: TWG 195 - D6

xiz doing math in a game is a completely foreign thing to me

[FreezinIce]

Re: TWG 195 - D6

continuing, theres no reason to fakeclaim as a green here because lol.

He also gets bonus points for the preemptive claim in this situation because i already established he has no motive to fakeclaim. Playing the numbers, from my experience in these situations the first claim is USUALLY legit, not the counterclaim

[FreezinIce]

Re: TWG 195 - D6

but what if we kill xiz instead here

for the memes

xiz

[mellon_collie]

Re: TWG 195 - D6

Not really.
For your world, there would be a 33% chance of a doctor.
For me, 20%

for me, unless the wolves didn't kill and there was a vigi that didn't shoot, it was probably a doctor save

[fatfuck42]

Re: TWG 195 - D6

a jailkeeper or bodyguard should claim, because it outs xiz as fake, and I don't think we'd get there otherwise today

literally any investigative CAN claim if they want to hard-out raeko, but I think we're probably killing her regardless

innocent child definitely should claim imo though if they exist, as it both outs raeko and gives town an extra confirmed

lastly, shadow_god should probably claim if he is any role at all, we actually do need to wait for him to do this

if he is, xiz should target someone else tonight

anyone see anything wrong with this?

How come jailkeeper? Bodyguard for sure, and innocent child/shadow stuff makes sense. I don't think anyone outside of that should claim, though.

[FreezinIce]

Re: TWG 195 - D6

How come jailkeeper? Bodyguard for sure, and innocent child/shadow stuff makes sense. I don't think anyone outside of that should claim, though.

its impossible to have a setup with both a jailkeeper and a tracker