TWG Turbo V: Everyone Pretend to be the Seer Postgame

[juckter1]

Re: TWG Turbo V: Everyone Pretend to be the Seer Postgame

lols this game was a trainwreck that got compounded into a bigger trainwreck. Shoutouts to Juckter and the RNG gods, you're the Heroes of the Hour!

You're giving me too much credit, but it still feels nice, ty man . Read your entire paste, it was both educational and entertaining

Just kidding, well played. I didn't expect the "pretend to be Seer" strategy to work that well.

Juckter1 impressed me. I couldn't read him as Seer at all on the first Day. (that's a good thing)

Thanks! I did try to be careful on D0, though I actually tried to crumb cop on D1. Did any of you think I was likely to be seer on D1?

I wasn't here for the previous games, so I can't really comment on them, but the mass seer fake claiming is REALLY powerful in this setting. With only 9 players, each individual green check means something. The mass false claiming allows the seer to post their results without being targeted, and even if they're killed by mischance, their results aren't lost. This means that even in a worst case scenario, the town is going to gain real information, and since the mass results hide the seer, it makes it highly likely they survive at least until D2, and a decent chance to survive to D3+. Obviously in this game the math was skewed somewhat by one wolf dying in the first two days, but a situation where there aren't many players and a seer can safely get results out without being targeted leans town. That doesn't even account for this issue of players being constrained by their own non-seer results (in my case, I had to abandon the seer pose to vote James). Part of the issue is that the game simply resolves quickly, so it's possible that a town win looks more commanding than it actually is, but even assuming no wolf deaths, it would still take until D4 to even potentially force LYLO, and that information is always out there with role flips.

Essentially, wolves almost necessarily need to kill the seer on D1 or N1 to win. It kind of sounds like that had always happened to this point, which is really improbable to begin with, but it becomes even harder in the face of this particular tactic. Again, I'd recommend eliminating the N0 result, but I understand if people don't agree.

I assume the extra information wolves get from the checks (whoever checks a wolf is confirmed not to be the seer) should balance it out. Even one player who is confirmed VT is quite valuable when only 7 people can be the seer. You guys got really unlucky and got no extra information from it.

It's still kind of early to analyze the balance of Turbos, seeing as there have only been five so far, and only the last one had all of the D0 checks given out (plus, town did some really lol-worthy plays in most of them)

I convinced myself that you were the seer.

This seemed really weird, from your point of view the checks should have almost confirmed that the seer was either MML or me.

Anyways, fun game, I'm glad I was somewhat able to fulfill my role as seer. Shoutouts to MML and DFR for saving town from being fucked on D1

[danceflashrevo]

Re: TWG Turbo V: Everyone Pretend to be the Seer Postgame

It's tunnelling when you stop reading posts and completely misremember events in a way that makes it more convenient to you imo

Whether or not you brought up good points, it was hella tunnel.

[thesunfan]

Re: TWG Turbo V: Everyone Pretend to be the Seer Postgame

e2: also also, it took me this long to figure out why sunfan asked me how long i've been lurking twg. this long!

yeah those comments on your wall are old as shit
there might just be one i'm too lazy to check

[inDheart]

Re: TWG Turbo V: Everyone Pretend to be the Seer Postgame

yeah those comments on your wall are old as shit
there might just be one i'm too lazy to check

to save you a look: 5/23/14

[thesunfan]

Re: TWG Turbo V: Everyone Pretend to be the Seer Postgame

You're right about the three days vs. four; I accidentally started mentally from nine town rather than nine players. And to be fair that does make a big, big difference in how I see this.

Still, the thing about the equal chances is that under the current format, the seer can still provide valuable information even if killed immediately, since role flips at death and (like everyone else) the seer would have posted a D1 result. A single green read is meaningful in a scenario where (assuming a wolf wasn't lynched on D1, which would obviously be a huge boon for town anyway) there would be only 7 people (and 2 of those are wolves). The consequences of letting the seer survive even one day in the current format was borne out here, as things got very crowded structurally. But assume Juckter had been killed N2 and hadn't received a red read N1. Two town would be exonerated immediately (yes, there's the possibility that one or both of the green reads died previously), which would be enormously useful in a 3:2 setting. Two confirmed town would mean two wolves in a pool of three remaining players.

And to be fair, at the same time, in a 3:2 setting, it would probably be time for a wolf to commit to hard fakeclaiming/countering the actual seer (assuming the seer is alive). So I can see how it could play out differently, but I feel the pre-game read does lean town.

you pretty much hit the nail on the head with the last part. The wolves have to find the seer one way or another. The following scenarios are assuming that the seer is not outed on d0, as this only very rarely happens and when it does, wolves are significantly more likely to win the game and that the d0 lynch is on a vanilla town, which is the most likely scenario.

The wolves can get rid of the seer in two ways at that point, killing them n1 or getting the seer lynched the following day (I'll talk abot why leaving both seer claims alive for one day is a pretty bad idea specifically in this setup) by fakeclaiming.

So, obviously, the wolves would prefer to kill the seer n1. It leaves the game with only one confirmed town member, and I think the demoralization of town once this happens is not something that should be understated. But, lets assume that they make two seer reads, kill their strongest seer read, but they flip as vanilla town.

Several things happen. First, the check that this vanilla town left d0 becomes pseudo confirmed town. Wolves killing a player that left a wolf as their check is a pretty risky gambit that is more likely to bite the wolves in the ass than pay off because it assuredly leaves the seer alive, meaning the number of confirmed town almost always increases once the seer outs.

Second, the seer likely claims the following day. The reason for this is that it will either force the wolves to fakeclaim in order to stand a solid chance at the game, or, if the wolves do not believe that a fakeclaim is viable, they will be forced into a very difficult scenario to achieve victory in. The seer likely has two clears, or one clear and a redcheck, sometimes they only have one clear and very rarely have something other than that, and that means that, combined with the pseudo-clear from the vanilla town's check from the nightkill (assuming no overlap with the seer or the seer's clears), town has 3 (+1) confirmed town or 2 (+1) confirmed town and a confirmed wolf, and occasionally less than that.

As a side note, leaving both seer claims alive in order to get more info is completely useless because the seer will be nightkilled if they don't have a red-check that wins the game, and if they do have this red-check, lynching anything other than that red check is a pretty terrible idea, mathematically. The wolves can also leave the seer alive, meaning that town doesn't actually gain any more info most of the time, because they are still forced into making a decision about which seer is the real one.

Let us now assume that the top town seer reads for the wolves are wrong, and that a wolf fake-claims with a red on their top seer read, or something of the like, and is wrong again. They are still not in that bad of a position, because their fake red check could be lynched, meaning that they are able to kill the real seer the following night because their claim is known to be false at this point. Its still not very ideal for the wolves (not as good as hitting the seer n1), but it gives them the best chance of winning, as they stand almost no chance of beating the seer if they leave the seer to their own devices at that point.

In the best case scenario for town, that's auto if the believe the vanilla town's d0 check to be town, which means that the wolves pretty much have to fakeclaim to have a chance.

That is how the setup is balanced; it forces the wolves to eliminate seer candidates based on how they feel like players are posting (does Player A actually feel like they know Player B, who is their claimed check on d0, is town or not?).

It truly makes rolereads the most important thing for wolf survival. It doesn't matter how good you post on d0; you need to find the seer n1 or get them lynched the following day phase in order to have a chance.

Of course, lets say that the wolves fakeclaim and get the seer lynched d2. Of course, the wolf who fakeclaims will be lynched, and the night before, the wolves pick off one of the real seer's clears, and they do so the night after one of the wolves is lynched as well.

Town now has no 100% confirmed members left, one pseudo-confirmed member that is usually town, one unconfirmed vanilla town vs one wolf.

Even in that scenario, wolves are not especially favored, because the last wolf probably had to push on the real seer (meaning they probably don't look too good), so making a believable fakeclaim is very important, because the wolves want the other town members at that point to look just as bad, at least, as they do.

The setup has a lot of swing in it, but its the good kind of swing, where the swing is dependent upon how well town (including the seer and the ability of vanilla town members to look like they're the seer) is playing vs how well the wolves are playing and able to sift through the fake checks given on d0.

This is wholly different from the kind of swing present when, say, three doctors are present in a C9++ roll.

All in all, the setup is balanced despite this swing because the swing is entirely dependent upon skill, and the town and wolves really do make their own beds. Until this game, we had no seer that lived until d1 and was believed, which goes to show how important hypoing d0 is.

tl;dr the setup is balanced both mathematically and skill-wise. Fakeclaiming is an important tool for the wolves that should be utilized as often as possible otherwise they are probably gonna get fucked.

[thesunfan]

Re: TWG Turbo V: Everyone Pretend to be the Seer Postgame

something that was not mentioned this game;

when Haku died James May should've been pseudo-confirmed as the wolves are going to try and kill the seer the first night, meaning (and this is especially clear given AA's discussion on how he thought Haku was the seer) that the wolves believe that James May is the seers green, meaning James May is almost always town (given that the wolves are not pulling a gambit).

[Funnygurl555]

Re: TWG Turbo V: Everyone Pretend to be the Seer Postgame

did you guys kill t-force like you were supposed to

[AragakiAyase]

Re: TWG Turbo V: Everyone Pretend to be the Seer Postgame

did you guys kill t-force like you were supposed to

play

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[T-Force]

Re: TWG Turbo V: Everyone Pretend to be the Seer Postgame

did you guys kill t-force like you were supposed to

They didn't. Shame on them, right?