Doug's Election Prediction
Posted on: November 4, 2016, at 11:35:25pm

The election is only 4 days away and I have done a ton of math to try to figure out who is going to win. These percentages should be the most accurate, in terms of what's going to happen on election day, that you can find anywhere.

Alabama: Trump +20.3%
Alaska: Trump +5.3%
Arizona: Trump +4.4%
Arkansas: Trump +16.1%
California: Clinton +24.8%
Colorado: Clinton +4.5%
Connecticut: Clinton +9%
Delaware: Clinton +10.5%
D.C.: Clinton +A lot
Florida: Clinton +0.2%
Georgia: Trump +5.3%
Hawai'i: Clinton +21.5%
Idaho: Trump +22.6%
Illinois: Clinton +12.4%
Indiana: Trump +13.3%
Iowa: Trump +1.8%
Kansas: Trump +14.4%
Kentucky: Trump +22%
Louisiana: Trump +17.8%
Maine: Clinton +6.9%
Maryland: Clinton +23.3%
Massachusetts: Clinton +20.5%
Michigan: Clinton +2%
Minnesota: Clinton +5.4%
Mississippi: Trump +19.1%
Missouri: Trump +10.5%
Montana: Trump +18%
Nebraska: Trump +20.2%
Nevada: Clinton +2.2%
New Hampshire: Clinton +3.2%
New Jersey: Clinton +13.7%
New Mexico: Clinton +4.8%
New York: Clinton +19.6%
North Carolina: Trump +0.4%
North Dakota: Trump +24%
Ohio: Trump +1.1%
Oklahoma: Trump +29.5%
Oregon: Clinton +8.5%
Pennsylvania: Clinton +3.6%
Rhode Island: Clinton +11%
South Carolina: Trump +6%
South Dakota: Trump +21.2%
Tennessee: Trump +14%
Texas: Trump +9.9%
Utah: Too lazy to make up a model for it, but probably Trump wins I guess
Vermont: Clinton +27.3%
Virginia: Clinton +5.3%
Washington: Clinton +10.5%
West Virginia: Trump +26.1%
Wisconsin: Clinton +5.7%
Wyoming: Trump +39%

If these are correct, the tipping point is actually Michigan, and the winner of it will win the election. Hillary's 2% lead should be enough for her to win but it's not necessarily completely out of reach. But I'd still put her at about 95% chance to win the election since these numbers are supposed to be with a very low margin of error.

This is in part for fun to see if I can be the one to most accurately predict the election.