TWG III Postgame Analysis / State Of The Game Report

[chardish]

STATE OF THE WEREWOLF GAME REPORT

Greetings to all. As many of you have heard rumors on the internets that I will not be running TWG IV. This is correct. I will turn it over to nominations in a nominations thread. This is due mainly to Thanksgiving break and upcoming Finals - I don't want to deal with it. Nominations will be described later. I will be participating. I'm reserving my slot right here and now.

But there are issues that need to be addressed to make the game more fun.

Game Size. Some people were losing interest near the end of the game due (I think) to its massive size and no real sight of resolution. Game size should ideally be 14-16 to prevent disinterest. Even with 4 wolves, 20 is just too much.

Participation. Don't sign up if you're not going to be at your computer enough to catch up on the thread and make a decent, paragraph-long post at least once every 24 hours. This game requires involvement and engagement if you want to survive. Some of these people played the equivalent of standing on the sidelines the entire time. If you play, you need to post.

Tasselfoot quandary. HOLY CRAP, WOLVES, IF TASS IS NOT ON YOUR SIDE, YOU SHOULD TAKE PAINS TO DO AWAY WITH HIM. He's good at figuring you out. I'm surprised it took you as long as it did to decide to kill him. You might have lasted a bit longer if you had killed him.

AIM alliance. People have a hard time staying engaged in the game if there's an AIM alliance going on. It kind of ruins the fun when the game is set up in such a way that either a) the Seer is randomly killed by the wolves through a lucky guess or b) the alliance grows larger and larger and their list of targets grows smaller and smaller. Also, with an AIM alliance, nobody's suspicions are made public and no one has anything to go on. To combat the alliance and force people to use their powers of deduction instead of stupidly bandwagoning, I propose the following:

Master wolf. The master wolf is like a normal wolf but with one special characteristic: If he gets seen by the seer, it is reported that he is human. The purpose behind this is so that an AIM alliance that gets formed is never 100% sure who's who and still has to use their brains to figure out who's acting wolflike or not. Some argue that this diminishes the power of the seer. However, the power of the seer is usually offset by the fact that the seer can't figure out who to trust and rather has to quietly insinuate they're the seer without being figured out. It also adds an element of risk and danger to the AIM alliance - how does the seer even know if the contact he makes to start the alliance isn't a wolf? The seer is still a powerful tool, but the master wolf prevents his power from being abused to win games.

I think this will help balance things for TWG IV.

TWG III postgame analysis goes here. Also comment on my report.

[lightdarkness]

Seriously, I wanted to yell at the wolves so bad for not killing tass, he should've been gone well before me.

I can't wait til TWG 4

[Kilgamayan]

Funny, after all my advocating against the internet alliance bit I accidentally started it by voting for Tass on Day 2. He came to me and told me thatCypher was the seer and had IDed both of us. >_>

Once Cypher found Cenright on Night 6 I knew enough humans that the end of the game was systematic. At that point Tass dying didn't matter because I just hooked up with Q instead. I'm glad we got the last wolf on the first try though.

[GuidoHunter]

Seriously, I wanted to yell at the wolves so bad for not killing tass, he should've been gone well before me.


QFE.

I must say, I became a bit disinterested towards the end, but mainly because there was little going on in the forums. I didn't have much to go on, so I voted according to what people over AIM said (of course, I had to scrupulously trust them, but still). Sleepless, though, he was pretty obvious.

On that note, Cypher, were you voting according to what sleepless did at the very end? That's what it seemed like to me. You vote for Qreepy, see that sleepless bandwagon votes with you (which pretty much gives himself away), then change your vote to him.

To whoever runs the next game: I absolutely loved that record file for voting; try and include that and update it.

Maybe I'll have a bit more input later. Also, I want my sig banner.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

[CypherToorima]

I honestly think the master wolf thing would be pretty neat. It really would make people think more. If we had that in that game...I wouldn't know how it would turn out.

Near the end of the game it seemed really really drawn out because there was hardly any posting. So, if it'll produce more talk, then go for it.

@Guido: Actually, I did that before I saw his post :oops:

I also love the record file. It helped me out so much.

Heh, I'd like to mention that I was the only human with special powers not to get killed (because I'm a concieted sonuvabitch like that). But I would also like to thank Tass for helping us all out while alive (and while dead =X )


I can't wait to display that pretty blue and white sig :D

[Tasselfoot]

ok... since, well.... i don't want to take ALL the credit, but if i wasn't apart of the alliance from day 2... the humans would have most likely lost.

few things: 1. i knew off the bat that at least 1, if not more, of the wolves were intelligent based off the killings from nights 1 and 2. also, i knew the guardian had to be someone intelligent as well.... by not guardianing me under the pretence that the wolves would assume i was being guardianed and not try and kill me. this saved Q and helped firmly mold the alliance. at this time, i narrowed the list down to 4 people. 1 was the guardian, and at least 1 was a wolf. those were flypie, kefit, guido, cstar. and, i was right. kefit was the guardian and flypie was a wolf. this is why flypie was seered on night 3 and killed on day 3.

Cypher seered kilga on night 1 and me on night 2. he waited til day 2 to start the alliance by contacting me. i set everything up by getting in touch with kilga, and then bringing in Q who was obviously human. Zild joined up as well when he got in touch with Q. i was very suprised that the guardian never contacted Q... as this would make perfect logical sense. alas, kefit was soon killed anyway. regardless, the alliance was set with 5 members on day 2, and only got stronger each day.

with that, the wolves killings after LD on night 1 were bad. i assumed flaw was human because he voted for Eric on day 1 (who Zild told us was a wolf)... that meant that guido, roopert, flaw, and blahblah were human, along with us 5. 9 humans, 1 dead wolf, 8 remaining players with 3 wolves. from there... it was simple to win the game. seer 1 of the 8 every night, kill another. kefit was still in that group and the wolves helped us out by killing kefit.

also, had the humans listened to me on day 4 and killed hydro instead of aleco... the game would have ended on day 6, not day 7. i realized through the logic i posted in the thread that both aleco and qreepy were human... but not enough people listened, so aleco died on day 4 and qreepy was seered on night 4 and hydro was killed on day 5... instead of hydro dying on day 4, cen being seered on night 4, cen dying on day 5, sleepless being seered on night 6, sleepless dying on day 6. i had everything down to hydro, cen, and sleepless on day 5. unfortunately, hydro was the 1 human of the 3 and i was killed on night 6. so, we almost had the game extended past day 7....

but, i made some very sneaky moves over AIM after i died to steer cypher, guido, and roopert in the correct direction. all of them had the information to kill sleepless.... they just didn't see it. so i helped them through clever question asking. nothing that violated the rules set up by chardish (verified after the fact)... yes, i bent the rules... but no where does it say i can't ask questions closely related to the game. just that i can't directly talk about the game.


so yea.... i'm damn pissed i was killed on night 6. i really wanted that black banner. guess i'll get it next game.



edit: you all can thank me for asking chardish every night to post the previous days postings.... hopefully in the future i won't be the only one to analyze the voting so carefully. its like CSI. they go by EVIDENCE and the evidence only. they listen to people's testimony, but don't really care because everyone says they are not guilty. same here. so, the evidence is the voting. its the only hard facts we have.

[GuidoHunter]

so yea.... i'm damn pissed i was killed on night 6. i really wanted that black banner. guess i'll get it next game.

No lie. Getting wolfed suxx0rz. You still help the humans win, but don't get a banner for it.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

[Cenright]

Let me start by saying I utterly failed, and I concede that.

I couldn't do this full time, and so lost a few AIM opportunites that could have helped royally. I also messed up, on a few 50/50's, I took wrong turns. (The only 50/50 that came out right was kefit.)

I left aleco and cypher to live because they were taking all the heat for a while. I hoped that people would destroy them while I could focus elsewhere. (Thanks all those who voted cypher. You did very well in throwing me off him.)

[CypherToorima]

Thank you people who voted for me ^.^

But Cenright, you did play a good game. If I hadn't seered you, I dunno how long you would have lasted (You might have even won)
...hopefully in the future i won't be the only one to analyze the voting so carefully.
You weren't the only one. But you were probably the one who analyzed it much more thoroughly than anybody else.

[Cenright]

No. I gave myself away to tass. I attempted to keep like last game, contacting everyone that I did in game two. I ran out of time and my AIM conversations with tass dissappeared.

[Tasselfoot]

::cough cough:: and... who was suggesting who you were seering cypher? who suggested that cenright be seered on night 6?

[CypherToorima]

Of course, of course, let's all bow down to the mighty Tasselfoot ;-)
The humans are really lucky you weren't killed for so long.

[Cenright]

I do need to ask Q how much trust he really had in me after i didnt vote for him, and how much was just an act.


My guardian fear was too strong. That was why tass lived.
It was also the reason why I went for Q instead of Tass. I felt that all of a sudden everyone would look ahead after that, and that Q would be clear.

Nice work kefit

[GuidoHunter]

...hopefully in the future i won't be the only one to analyze the voting so carefully.

I used chardish's voting file a whole lot, but I wasn't able to glean too much from it since most every human died by a huge margin (insta-lynches). That was actually my main source of information.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

[Cenright]

I analyzed voting trends and sets a lot with sleepless. We both kept bouncing names off of each other, seeing what we saw in the voting. (Again, this is why Cypher lived.)


What I didnt see, what that most of the people who voted for Cypher died later. I actually saw it, but didnt correlate the two.

[Tasselfoot]

right. and our voting pattern was obvious cen... killing flaw and killing blah were completely obvious attempts at reverse psychology. they each voted for someone who wasn't killed... and then got killed. so you thought we'd go right after the person they had voted for. that is the most obvious logic as to why we shouldn't vote for them... it draws attention to them. besdies the fact we already knew the people you wanted us to go after were human.

so, again... thank you cen/sleepless for helping the humans with your killings. except for mine. hehe.

[chardish]

New banners/statistics are in. Congratulations to The Q, Kilgamayan, and Roopert for leveling up!

[GuidoHunter]

right. and our voting pattern was obvious cen... killing flaw and killing blah were completely obvious attempts at reverse psychology. they each voted for someone who wasn't killed... and then got killed. so you thought we'd go right after the person they had voted for. that is the most obvious logic as to why we shouldn't vote for them... it draws attention to them. besdies the fact we already knew the people you wanted us to go after were human.

so, again... thank you cen/sleepless for helping the humans with your killings. except for mine. hehe.

Logic certainly worked on me. Granted, I was scraping for ANYTHING to go on at that point.

Also, Kilga, why did you vote me (at first, of course) for the last night? I'm just curious.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

[Cenright]

CronosLife: If i could shake your hand i would
Cypher Toorima: lol
Cypher Toorima: You did a good job too
CronosLife: i wanted you and aleco to bicker
CronosLife: i felt it was great
CronosLife: i did good, but i only did alright with educated guesses, fair tactics, and good analysis
CronosLife: i didnt have time to be the infiltrator i needed
CronosLife: flypie was going to die, even if you hadnt seered her
Cypher Toorima: Still, you gave me nothing to go off of
Cypher Toorima: yeah
Cypher Toorima: She acted way too abvious
CronosLife: she is SUCH a bad actor
Cypher Toorima: obvious*
CronosLife: we will know instantly in later games
CronosLife: i wanted her to do infiltrating, but she wasnt up to it
CronosLife: i was under the wing of q AND tass
Cypher Toorima: Yeah
CronosLife: i could have done so well
CronosLife: but i didnt have the time
CronosLife: school still had to take precedence
Cypher Toorima: Tass pm'd me with a statement about you trusting gim
Cypher Toorima: him*
Cypher Toorima: so that completely took you off the high-alert list
CronosLife: i tried to copy game 2
CronosLife: in i did great
CronosLife: until i ran out of time
CronosLife: sleepless did well. he played just like game 2, always gone
Cypher Toorima: Who know what would have happened you hadn't ran out of time
CronosLife: i TOLD him to be gone
CronosLife: and imeric was killed on a single post. it was day 1, everyone was just grasping at straws
Cypher Toorima: That was very lucky for the humans
CronosLife: yes
CronosLife: so things went alright
Cypher Toorima: I think that the wolves did a very fine job
CronosLife: be did, for blind men
CronosLife: we
CronosLife: we only could hear, smell, taste, and feel
CronosLife: but we were lacking a sense
CronosLife: that is where we lost

[roopert]

Well this game was fun, but I was definitely losing interest in it towards the end. I think it was because of the AIM alliance that I was not a part of. Everything went on behind the scenes and never reached the forums, so I was completely out of the loop and really didn't have much to go on. I only got AIMed on the last day and it was very brief. If I do play in the next one, I hope to either be a wolf, have a special role, or at least be in the AIM alliance if I'm a human. The games no fun if you can only go off of what an alliance does each day for reasons unknown.

[Cenright]

The alliance starts with trust, Roopert. You have to put your trust in semi-blindly in the beginning, and then set precautions against betrayal with another. That is where is starts with those who arent a role.

[sleeplessdragn]

im glad the master wolf is being implemented. it helps out those of us who arent popular enough to AIMed by anyone. and this is coming from a human side too, as i was in the first game.

[Tasselfoot]

yup. thats exactly right Cen. both games 2 and 3 i was human, leader of the alliance, yet having to go on trust from the start. had i not trusted flypie or cypher.... no way the humans win. or, it takes much much longer. you can either take educated trust or paranoia. those are the 2 options. paranoia leads to poor voting and the killing of humans. the entire time i was working with the seers in 2 and 3, there was a reminded in the back of my mind that there was still a chance that they were actually wolves screwing me over. that chance got smaller and smaller as the game went on, but it was in my mind until the end.

[sleeplessdragn]

one question: wat happened to cstarflare? and if it actually is possible to just dissapear in the middle of a game and then win and get the sig, who knows wats out there.

[roopert]

Looks like I'll have to be a lot more trusting next game. Let's hope I make the right friends :)

[GuidoHunter]

UGH! LOST MY POST!!! Stupid "Backing up files" message and not being able to go "back" to your reply.

Anyway, I'm going to have to be more active next game, i.e. IM more people and get involved. AIM convos are another tool I could use to make judgments.

I kind of liked playing the last game from the shadows. I figured, if I were complacent, I'd stay off the wolves' radars and win the game or be forced to get involved at the end. But, that didn't prove to be nearly as fun or as helpful to my fellow humans.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

[Cenright]

The idle players get away with it this time because there was no rule.

That wont happen again, so you guys dont have to worry about it. (You cant change the rules in the end though and expect them to retroactively go into effect.)

[blahblah18]

there were weak chocies, but I was thoroughly upset because the game was completely played over aim, and I was not part of it at all, so I could do nothing to possibly get myself into the game... Oh well, killing Q night 2 was idiotic and if they choose someone else they can probably win...

EDIT: I still don't think rules should be even bent... especially if you know thats what your'e doing Tass, its just unfair and lessens the fun of the game.

[CypherToorima]

Blah, he didn't give us any answers. hell, I had trouble trying to figure out what he was saying. It was still a challenge.

[alainbryden]

I've been reading the last game and this topic. I want in on the next game. Someone tell me how I go about signing up for the next one whenever it happens. Thanks.

[CypherToorima]

There will be a sign up thread. Post there before all the slots are taken.

[Kefit]

Ok, now I'm torn.

I really don't want to bring aim into this game, because I don't want to have to watch every single word that I say while chatting. As anyone who has chatted with me before can tell you, I tend to be rather mindless with what I type and neglect to check what I am actually saying before hitting return. I would rather not have to start doing this while chatting, just because I like the mindlessness of the chat.

On the other hand, it seems that aim is a crucial part of TWGs, and that to not partake in it is to only be playing half the game. Indeed, learning now that there was an alliance after the game makes me feel as if I was left out, which is annoying.

Anyway, for anyone that is interested, here were my guardian choices:

Night one: Kilgamayan. I figured that he was the most probable wolf choice, since the wolves wouldn't dare go after Tass and possibly throw away their kill, and Kilga is both intelligent and quite experienced at this game. From what I remember of the second game, Kilga really didn't do much in it, so I figured that the wolves would figure that he wouldn't be guardianed. I have no idea why the wolves went after LD - he really didn't seem to do much in the past two games worth being killed at the very beginning over, and it seems to me that he would be a more likely first night guardian choice than most everyone else.

Night two: The_Q. Everyone knows what happened here 8)

Night three: CypherToorima. I'm not sure if I remember correctly, but I think that most of my logic for this choice hinged on the idea that aleco was a wolf (which, I learn tonight, was not a correct idea). The wolves ended up going after Flawofhumanity, I guess to make it look like Cypher was a wolf (since Flaw had voted for Cypher that night).

Night four: By the time I got back from work, I was already dead. However, I had thought I could guard myself, and I had definitely been considering doing so this night.

Then I was dead.

Anyway, good job humans. I'm looking forward to the next game.

[CypherToorima]

Hooray, I was deemed important enough to be gaurdianed ^.^

[alainbryden]

Question about the game. If the guard can guard themselves, then couldn't the humans win really cheaply by the gardian garding himself every single time until he was the only one left?

[GuidoHunter]

No, because the wolves win whenever their numbers equal those of the humans.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

[Kefit]

The thing is, the guardian can't guard themselves. I thought they could, so I was quite shocked to get home and be dead before I could say anything about it.

Actually, I was pretty pissed right after learning of my death, and my initial messege to Chardish was rather indignant. Good thing I calmed down and had a chance to edit it XD

[alainbryden]

Damn that opening for next registration is right in the middle of a class. *prays for wireless access*

[GuidoHunter]

Alain, that's the signups for who's going to RUN TWGIV. I presume the players signup will be after that.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

[alainbryden]

nope, Guido, it's for people participating in the game, then once you've signed up you vote for who you want to run TWGIV.

[aleco]

I was like really shocked when I came home and found out at the last minute people had voted me. That was just messed up. I didn't vote for sleeplessdragn because he wasn't active. I understand school, I had nothing else to go on and he hadn't voted yet, when there was like 24 hours to, school doesn't take that long. And I was right in that, I voted against him the first two rounds, but no one else cares. Maybe I should quit this game.

[Squeek]

I wasn't even in the game and I had everybody figured out in 3 days.

Especially Cenright and Sleepless. And this is without the insight of the seer or psychic.

Really, it would have made it harder if EVERYBODY VOTED.

~Squeek

[Kilgamayan]

I love everyone who pops in and says "Well I knew so-and-so was this" at the end of the game, from Tass on the first page to Squeek now.

Hindsight is 20/20, isn't it?

[lightdarkness]

I knew all 4 wolves after night 1 :-P

Anyways, I can't wait for TWG4, and I hoped to run it, I thought it was just gonna be between Kilga and myself, I had no idea all those other people were interested. I guess I should'nt have written the storyling, THANKS TASSEL :-p <3

[CStarFlare]

I like how the first TWG I've ever won as a human (if you don't count the time I was a seer) was the first TWG I've ever forgotten I was part of.

Oops.

I'm just too busy for TWG right now. Thanksgiving=lots of work. :/

Sorry for kinda dropping out without saying anything. At least it didn't end up screwing my team.

[flypie743]

CronosLife: i didnt have time to be the infiltrator i needed
CronosLife: flypie was going to die, even if you hadnt seered her
Cypher Toorima: Still, you gave me nothing to go off of
Cypher Toorima: yeah
Cypher Toorima: She acted way too abvious
CronosLife: she is SUCH a bad actor
Cypher Toorima: obvious*
CronosLife: we will know instantly in later games
CronosLife: i wanted her to do infiltrating, but she wasnt up to it

I completely lost interest in the game and was hoping someone would seer me and I would die. I shouldn't have signed up for this round. I tried my best to act obvious so I would die. Sorry I failed you, Cen.

[Tasselfoot]

um.... kilga, you can say what you will... but i wasn't exactly claiming 20/20 hindsight. ask Cypher, Q, Zild, or Chardish... i told every single one of them on day 4 that of hydro, cen, sleepless... 2 were wolves.

[Squeek]

Ditto in semi-reverse? Or something like that.

I also talked to Chardish and was like "Yea, Cenright and Sleepless are wolves, aren't they? They're making it so obvious."

"DING DING DING"

ZOMG

By the way, I'm like blindeded when it comes to hindsight. Though I think it's easier to determine who's who when you're not playing and just reading the topic.

~Squeek

[QreepyBORIS]

I have 20/20 hindsight, unfortunately....


No foresight, though. Makes things kinda interesting.

[chardish]

Flypie, I understand your belief that you shouldn't have signed up, but when you make it obvious in an attempt to get killed you're letting your whole team down. If you really wanted to quit that badly you should have at the very least just let phantom votes against you rack up until you die.

This is why I ask that you can only sign up if you have the dedication to write at least a paragraph once every 24 hours.

[QreepyBORIS]

Or, like Kagome, she could've gotten a replacement.

[chardish]

I decided to disallow replacements. It throws the game off whack.

[QreepyBORIS]

Well, the only example we have of that is of Kagome, and that whole game WAS out of whack, to begin with. There is no real good evidence to show that on these boards there would be massive mess-uppage.

[Squeek]

Replacements don't work due to different posting patterns and personalities among users.

I did a great job, though. I congratulate myself for being the only replacement and ruling at it.

~Squeek

[flypie743]

Flypie, I understand your belief that you shouldn't have signed up, but when you make it obvious in an attempt to get killed you're letting your whole team down. If you really wanted to quit that badly you should have at the very least just let phantom votes against you rack up until you die.

This is why I ask that you can only sign up if you have the dedication to write at least a paragraph once every 24 hours.

Cen voted himself off, too.

[Squeek]

With all due respect, Cenright knew it was his time to go. He knew he had no chance.

I did the same in the second game, right at the end.

~Squeek

[flypie743]

I had no chance either. I was seered :<

So the fact that I was seered and the fact that I was getting tired of that round (too many people) made me want to go.

[Squeek]

Whoa, for some reason, I was under the assumption that you were a human this time around...

You're making sense now. Sorry.

~Squeek

[flypie743]

Ha that's ok Squeek.