TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

[XelNya]

Alright I'm gonna stretch a bit after a long Overwatch play session and maybe go hammer out a good post.

[Precarious]

Originally Posted by XelNya

Now do you think she could have made that post as the SK?

You're actually correct that it doesn't preclude Psycho from being the SK. There's a remaining wolf out there as well as a serial killer, though, and this runs into the same logic as was discussed by Mellon. If Psycho is a wolf, encouraging Shado to shoot Haku would not be a good play given that Juckter was at risk of lynch. It would be slightly valid in this case, because it would allow for distancing, but would be a dangerous play overall. So I feel that it makes Psycho seem less wolfish, even if it doesn't answer the question of who the SK is (although I've shared my thoughts on that already).

[Precarious]

Also, nice to see the forums are sort of working now.

[XelNya]

I really wanna go play more overwatch / some fire emblem now...

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by danceflashrevo

i said what i had to say. i voted what i believed. looking at the votes the only lynches that were going to happen were me and juckter, and i didn't agree with the juckter lynch, obv i didn't agree with my lynch----

On princable I agree, hence why I voted Pyscho. I get pretty tissed off whenever someone tries to tell me to drop my vote and pick between the two high profile ones. Like fuck you man, if you don't want three people voted on drop one of your shitty votes. I think I can oh wait what else did you say--

Originally Posted by danceflashrevo

i had also felt very burnt out from that day because i had exams and homework and lots of studying so that would explain my not being completely committed to the game but i didn't wanna be that guy to make excuses. i just simply didn't have energy. call it distancing if you want but lol

Ok now there's too many excuses for it to actually be a good excuse ewww

Originally Posted by XelNya

I really wanna go play more overwatch / some fire emblem now...

I really wish I could get away with IIDX at work. Maybe one day when I don't care if I get fired

[XelNya]

By the way I did take a break in the middle of writing this longer post I'm nearly done with (I think.) Making it as CRISP as possible.

[XelNya]

Also rereading EoD to get the last parts for my post, actually notably shifted a little of how I think of DFR.

[XelNya]

Like, I finally don't wanna lynch him for being so wishy washy.

[XelNya]

Anyways, let me preface this post super hard with one important statement.

I think this post has some angle shooting in it. I note where it is rather clearly. If you don't agree with me because of that, I'm fine with that. I also accept that I could be very wrong because of it.

This post has a spoiler.
So you can't miss it.

Alright. Let's talk about DBP for a little bit.

Let's get this out the way: I think Psycho is the serial killer. Why? Not particularly because of what she's done and let me explain why.

From my POV mechanically The SK and town's interests line up until either the final wolf is alive, or till final four or so. There is zero reason at any time till immensely late game to not just play super solid town. With this in mind, denote that Psychoangel has done some of the most townie and awesome things she could since she replaced in. Is this a reason to see her as SK? No. But do I think we can just hand out town reads anymore? No as well. In fact I personally think some of the strongest towns need to be considered as the SK for this reason.

Anyways onto DBP. DBP is a player who has a notable wolf tell in how he posts. Did his day 0 contain this tell?

I think no, it didn't. Let me go over why.

His day starts off as regular shit-posting. Now DBP can roll with some shit, that's not an issue.

Then he gets in and starts ctaching up on the game. To which he makes this post:

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

Freezinice and Haku are probably never on the same team here

and honestly I have freezin and gradiant both as town rn

This is a townie post. He's already jumpin' in, getting shit going.

Now let's touch on some other posts that were my tell d0 that dbp was town. I don't really wanna talk about 'em too much because I wanna go play some fire emblem. I also think we'll be able to nab the wolf pretty quickly after the SK, and I'd personally get the SK out of the way.

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

precarious can you produce actual reads instead of making raw commentary?

STRONG call ping on precarious here. Like the point of this post is to say "yeah 'kay you posted a big post, but it's just commentary, where you stand out of it?"

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

maybe, but there was also no way you were ever going to be lynched, so it would be incredibly easy for him to 'defend' you from a nonexistent outcome

The strong part of this post is that he's pretty much killing Precarious. Like tbh the fact we didn't go after Precarious hard after this is kinda... Not great.

Anyways. The issue I think I remember some people had is that dbp really hard tapered off. Now I'll agree, that's kinda what his wolf tell is. The issue is that I feel his earlier push on precarious were solid enough to not throw him into the scum meta.

One more post to kinda plop DBP into my "this wasn't his scum meta" is this post. Especially with the hindsight of Haku / Juckster being actual wolves.

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

I know I fucked up not just now but this entire phase, all I can really do to defend myself atm is ask people to look at my tone over the phase

Scum dankpack stops posting. "Town" packback doesn't. From WHAT I RECALL the way scum packback reacts here would instead to just softly surrender. That's not what he does.

Especially when he comes back and:

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

one last thing before I go, Precarious has since fixed what I initially criticized him for when I pressured him, so unvote in case I'm not back in time

however it stands to reason that he could have changed his style purely in response to pressure, and that it was purely a defensive move, but that deserves more rigorous investigation in the future

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

a lot of ppl were giving him shit for not following through but I understand why he might not do that since I've pretty much been doing that this entire phase, so I'm totally sympathetic to "not feeling like it"

at the end of the day I'm probably still going to give you a pass because you did dig up a point that almost nobody else was thinking about at the time, but I'm wondering what led you from point A to point B here ---- those two posts are consecutive (separated by time obviously), and sure you had time to think about them, but it's a bit of whiplash when looking at them next to each other in ISO. namely that you were initially sympathetic to me in the first post and then nearly 180'd in the next post. I have a few possible explanations in my mind, but I want you to explain it from your mouth

Short hand is: The way dbp tapers off isn't his wolf tell, and neither is his tone all game for that matter. However, he does taper off in a way uncharacteristic of him IMHO. But when he's SK he'd play solid town because I know he's done that before. He'd just scum hunt like any other game till the end he'd be pretty fine.

Let's go to Psycho now because talking about JUST dbp isn't fair.

To short hand her entire history of this game simply: TOWNIE. AS. FUCK. With minimum lazy. Actually without dbp I probably'd have her as one of my highest town reads.

Originally Posted by psychoangel691

oh boy, I would be replacing dabackpack

Can't say this surprises me. Or really affects what I think, but this rly could be a "oh boy what did I sign up for" post.

Not saying it is, just trying to taint your thoughts a bit. /sarcasm MML makes some comment about it being a possible "premtive defense of herself" Which I can see is a possible outcome for why that post was made.

But then.

Originally Posted by psychoangel691

Uh, no. It was the fact that I came to see who I was replacing and feeling dread that it was DBP because he's basically always just labeled wolf out the gate (at least in all the games I'd played in the past) and honestly does seem like he rolls the role pretty often. So I was already at a disadvantage in my mind on top of being a sub.

Anyway, yes I'm here trying to read through everything. Gonna have to give me a lil bit to catch up. Pages still are loading like shit.

This post.

Let's talk about this post, because it has some value, I think.

She starts with explaining why she made the post.

But my issue with this literal first sentence is...

Doesn't she already know her role by now?

"It was the fact that I came to see who I was replacing and feeling dread that it was DBP" Is written like she didn't know what her role was coming into the thread.

Now I'm NOT going to discuss what her PM is. But let me be frank: On FFR when you get asked to replace someone and you agree, you get told what their role was.

Why would you be coming into the game to see who you were replacing? Surely you knew before that first post, because you NEED to know who you're replacing's role before you can do anything in the game. And two minutes (after AA announced you were in the game) is enough time to read your role and post what you said.

NOW. I feel this is possible angle shooting to confirm what I suspected before she replaced in. (As denoted by me asking Haku, "hey did you reach the same conclusion on dbp I did?")

Do I feel the rest of her game is scum hunting? YES ABSOLUTELY. There's fucking gold mines:

Originally Posted by psychoangel691

Just finished up reading through Zenith's posts and I don't really have a lot to say on it. Currently has a town lean from me as his posts seem genuine.



If you can get a chance I'd like to hear why these people are on your shoot list. I haven't fully caught up yet so any extra info is helpful for me. I doubt I can get through every post before EOD at this point.

I could fucking quote some posts. But there's some ups and downs and inconsistancies.

Originally Posted by psychoangel691

DFR - wolf lean. Gave pressure on someone D0 for inactivity but didn't really seem to get too invoved in other things going on. Does unvote but never returns for EOD to select someone else to vote.

Stuff like this just seems silly. Like yeah totally couldn't change your game around considering most people will look to other games to see how they acted as other roles. This post bothers me.

Very non committal to things because he's very afraid of being lynched. Town really shouldn't be afraid to be pushing for reactions to help get more information out there. He's not going to be very helpful to town if he's going to mouse this whole game.

Puts a vote on mellon trying to get more content from her. Is also on mellon a lot for "not really saying anything" but I kind of feel same can be said about him. A lot of the content is lackluster and as I mentioned before, non committal.

Now unless I missed something I didn't see anyone say anything for this response. So preemptively defending himself before anyone's even questioned it just seems a little fishy to me as well. Just adding on to the fear of being lynched and I personally don't feel like town should be that afraid.

There's SO MUCH detail in this post. Compared to say:

Originally Posted by psychoangel691

Just finished up reading through Zenith's posts and I don't really have a lot to say on it. Currently has a town lean from me as his posts seem genuine.



If you can get a chance I'd like to hear why these people are on your shoot list. I haven't fully caught up yet so any extra info is helpful for me. I doubt I can get through every post before EOD at this point.

Like I KNOW she's a busy person, doing tons of stuff, especially with two kids to take care of (I hope they're doing well btw ) but... Why not explain your town lean as well as your scum lean and help out your fellow town?

Like the ones closer to the actual EoD I understand, but not this particular one. It feels, a little bit like, you're padding your content, just like, I am padding this sentence.

Originally Posted by psychoangel691

I didn't get to read all of DBP's posts because I've been working on reading everyone still currently in the game but from what I gathered from other's posts about DBP that comment of "all that crap" is bullshit. If I'm seriously on your "top" list for scum then I think you're just looking for an easy out. There's too many others with way more content or fishy things. It's one thing to have some lean on me for it sure, but seriously? I've actually been coming in here every time I said I would and making an effort, what exactly have you been doing? Idk how many times now you've given an excuse or said "I'm going to" without actually contributing anything. Even that post there just seems like a cop out to have some sort of activity because people are on your ass now.

Let's finally go over why I think her saying "Hey shoot haku" can't be leaned as townie.

I think Psycho was pretty sure Haku was a wolf and made a gamble. Here's why.

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

Well, it's mostly that killing botchi/DBP would technically benefit Precarious/mellon/Juckter if they're a wolf team so, that sounds convenient to say.

Originally Posted by Charu

Mind explaining that "Precarious" part to me?

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

I'm thinking out loud, calm down Charu.

Originally Posted by Charu

Like...

WHAT

...was that post?

This particular set of posts, is totally a bussing slip on Haku's part BROUGHT TO YOU BY HINDSIGHT for being identifiable.

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

I try pairing wolves in my head when I see things that don't make sense to me and that they seems to fit together.

Oh and this is a shitty explanation.

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

Well, I need to defend myself, but I also need to try to find wolves by playing more aggressively.

You've seen my read list, it's kind of bland and there's still many "maybes" in it.

You probably know that I'm not the best at arguing so, that's how I'm trying to approach this situation in general.

Might be worth talking about this particular post a little, but I'm not sure if I think it's relevant or not.

Annnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnd this

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

Your play is great btw, but DBP did multiple things that are out of his game outside of being AFK.

He had a really weird EoD and he came back, but never talked about what he was supposed to talk to only to disappear again and get replaced out.

annnnnnnnnnnd this

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

Probably going to switch to DFR because I think juckter can still produce content that's valuable tomorrow.

And we finally arrive at my conclusion to why this post:

Originally Posted by psychoangel691

With Haku's sudden jump on jucker I'd vote Haku for the shot, but that's me.

Is bad, sells me that I wasn't wrong, along with all that I said.

Is the opportunistic nature of this post, given EVERYTHING I just said.

Psychoangel

[XelNya]

Long ass post brought to you by this song.

[MixMasterLar]

Man I don't even really know how to proceed. There's not enough posts to sink my teeth into and I wasn't here for that casual shitposting phase so I really feel like I'm thrust into a game with too many people being to walled up.

Let's see if making a reads list will make me feel better.



danceflashrevo - Most current post seem defensive (Well, he is under pressure) but for him to basically go from "Lar keeps forgetting this guy" to "This guy is super defensive and Lar doesn't know if he's trying to solve the game" doesn't look good on him. I can't really defend this guy

psychoangel691 - Doesn't look like total garbage the further the game goes. As Pre pointed out, even if we assume that Psycho wanted to buss a partner for dem brownie points there's little reason to try and throw both of them to slaughter.
THAT SAID The DPB meta is strong with this one and I'll be shocked as shit if DPB turned out to be VT. That EoD on day one was a complete shitfest. While everyone could turn out to be the SK in this situation if I absolutely had to gutread someone as such it'll be Pyscho, although there is no way I believe they bussed two partners right out the gate. If so, then damn son.


Precarious - Goes back and forth between making good points and then making posts that seem to reiterate what's already known. I guess I see merit in that but it isn't really a townie mindset IMHO. Hasn't done anything too scummy though, although early interactions with Haku trying to change his posting style might need to be re-examined. Was Wolf Haku trying to coach Wolf Pre? That's hysterical if true, but probably not true at all.

Another thing to consider is that Haku did at one point use a theoretical team of Pre/Mellon/Juckter pretty much mid D2. What's weird is that she got that by working out some weird logic from one of Raeko's post that said Pre was town. Then somehow PoE threw Juckter on as 3rd? It's pretty weird shit.

But considering how far back Haku was apparently to willing back-stab Juck, what if she had totally committed to just trying to save herself by throwing both partners under the buss? What if out of Pre/Mellon/Juck two of them where her partners and she simply picked someone else to replace her on her team in her post? That's fucking stupid, but with all the talk of bussing we've had last few games she may think it's a normal strategy for when you're in deep trouble and she was more or less scumread from page 1.

What's also interesting to note is that she at first has this thing for Xel and briefly does go back to him. I think if we assume the above tinfoil has any merit, this is Haku trying to decide if she wants to buss or push a town (in this case, Xel) She ultimately votes Juckter after he calls her his top scum . It's too bad he didn't name another person from her "Hypothetical Team" as that mighta narrowed some things down.


roundbox - The only thing he did noteworthy is fOlLow Ze VoT∃ and IIRC the two things we really got out of that was Haku and Xel need a lynchin'. Past that, he likes to tell us to be active.
RB is playing badly, is what I'm saying.

XelNya - Xel has yet to write a real serious post other then that one time that not even Charu gave a shit about. His insistence lately that Pyscho could have bussed and the effort he put into trying to make sure I had that thought are weird as fuck. He basically wants to jump in if the heat is on someone but ask him a question and he'll never have the time to answer it it seems. That's garbage.

Probably SK? I'm pretty sure I've seen him put better effort into TWG as SK though.

mellonxcollie/Raeko - No real change on opinion, but see the spiel I wrote about Haku's Hypothetical Team. Basically I like her posts, and that's all I can say. If anything points to her being a wold it'll be in what Haku did and not Raeko.

Zenith - Zenith doesn't want to read or answer any of my posts and that makes me not like him. Past that, I don't think I've seen him put that much work into solving the game. Again, this kind of strikes me as null though because if I'm being honest I tie him with least effective player in the regular TWG lineup. He's welcome to come prove me wrong though, I'd love to have more Zenith post to digest.

Charu is confirmed and also a bird

[MixMasterLar]

Oh cool Xel wrote some big ass post, gimme a few and I'll read them

[MixMasterLar]

Xel I am so glad I ain't the only one who found that Haku post weird as fuck.



Also, I can't say why because it really would be angle shooting 100%, but you're onto something with that Pyscho reasoning.

[XelNya]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

Man I don't even really know how to proceed. There's not enough posts to sink my teeth into and I wasn't here for that casual shitposting phase so I really feel like I'm thrust into a game with too many people being to walled up.

Let's see if making a reads list will make me feel better.



danceflashrevo - Most current post seem defensive (Well, he is under pressure) but for him to basically go from "Lar keeps forgetting this guy" to "This guy is super defensive and Lar doesn't know if he's trying to solve the game" doesn't look good on him. I can't really defend this guy

psychoangel691 - Doesn't look like total garbage the further the game goes. As Pre pointed out, even if we assume that Psycho wanted to buss a partner for dem brownie points there's little reason to try and throw both of them to slaughter.
THAT SAID The DPB meta is strong with this one and I'll be shocked as shit if DPB turned out to be VT. That EoD on day one was a complete shitfest. While everyone could turn out to be the SK in this situation if I absolutely had to gutread someone as such it'll be Pyscho, although there is no way I believe they bussed two partners right out the gate. If so, then damn son.


Precarious - Goes back and forth between making good points and then making posts that seem to reiterate what's already known. I guess I see merit in that but it isn't really a townie mindset IMHO. Hasn't done anything too scummy though, although early interactions with Haku trying to change his posting style might need to be re-examined. Was Wolf Haku trying to coach Wolf Pre? That's hysterical if true, but probably not true at all.

Another thing to consider is that Haku did at one point use a theoretical team of Pre/Mellon/Juckter pretty much mid D2. What's weird is that she got that by working out some weird logic from one of Raeko's post that said Pre was town. Then somehow PoE threw Juckter on as 3rd? It's pretty weird shit.

But considering how far back Haku was apparently to willing back-stab Juck, what if she had totally committed to just trying to save herself by throwing both partners under the buss? What if out of Pre/Mellon/Juck two of them where her partners and she simply picked someone else to replace her on her team in her post? That's fucking stupid, but with all the talk of bussing we've had last few games she may think it's a normal strategy for when you're in deep trouble and she was more or less scumread from page 1.

What's also interesting to note is that she at first has this thing for Xel and briefly does go back to him. I think if we assume the above tinfoil has any merit, this is Haku trying to decide if she wants to buss or push a town (in this case, Xel) She ultimately votes Juckter after he calls her his top scum . It's too bad he didn't name another person from her "Hypothetical Team" as that mighta narrowed some things down.


roundbox - The only thing he did noteworthy is fOlLow Ze VoT∃ and IIRC the two things we really got out of that was Haku and Xel need a lynchin'. Past that, he likes to tell us to be active.
RB is playing badly, is what I'm saying.

XelNya - Xel has yet to write a real serious post other then that one time that not even Charu gave a shit about. His insistence lately that Pyscho could have bussed and the effort he put into trying to make sure I had that thought are weird as fuck. He basically wants to jump in if the heat is on someone but ask him a question and he'll never have the time to answer it it seems. That's garbage.

Probably SK? I'm pretty sure I've seen him put better effort into TWG as SK though.

mellonxcollie/Raeko - No real change on opinion, but see the spiel I wrote about Haku's Hypothetical Team. Basically I like her posts, and that's all I can say. If anything points to her being a wold it'll be in what Haku did and not Raeko.

Zenith - Zenith doesn't want to read or answer any of my posts and that makes me not like him. Past that, I don't think I've seen him put that much work into solving the game. Again, this kind of strikes me as null though because if I'm being honest I tie him with least effective player in the regular TWG lineup. He's welcome to come prove me wrong though, I'd love to have more Zenith post to digest.

Charu is confirmed and also a bird

This post is some-what hard to read because of gender nouns being confused so hard on Haku rofl rofl rofl rofl

[XelNya]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

Xel I am so glad I ain't the only one who found that Haku post weird as fuck.



Also, I can't say why because it really would be angle shooting 100%, but you're onto something with that Pyscho reasoning.

I think it's less likely to be an angle shot because it's a shot based on what SHE says with a mix of what I feel is general knowledge. It feels like it's the realm of a "slip" of sorts which is a large part why I denote it might be, but I think it's a fair point, if that makes sense? I think that's the best way to put it.

[roundbox]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

RB is playing badly, is what I'm saying.

fight me irl

why are people hating on FOLLOW THE VOTE so much right now
it's been a vital tool every game I've used it but I'm catching flak for it because ???
is it because I haven't posted a formal reads list? probably

[roundbox]

PS I'm gonna do another follow the vote just to spite you

[roundbox]

Originally Posted by roundbox

PS I'm gonna do another follow the vote just to spite you

jk it's for information, not spite

I'm not DUMB

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by XelNya

This post is some-what hard to read because of gender nouns being confused so hard on Haku rofl rofl rofl rofl

It's a hard life talking about internet peeps in third person

Originally Posted by XelNya

I think it's less likely to be an angle shot because it's a shot based on what SHE says with a mix of what I feel is general knowledge. It feels like it's the realm of a "slip" of sorts which is a large part why I denote it might be, but I think it's a fair point, if that makes sense? I think that's the best way to put it.

No I get you.

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by roundbox

fight me irl

why are people hating on FOLLOW THE VOTE so much right now
it's been a vital tool every game I've used it but I'm catching flak for it because ???
is it because I haven't posted a formal reads list? probably

Follow the Vote is alot like Commentrics

It might be proven useful whenever I use it but it really doesn't need to be the only thing I do in the game that's silly

Originally Posted by roundbox

PS I'm gonna do another follow the vote just to spite you

No by all means do so, but follow it up with more content and follow up observations