TWG CXLIV - The Freeze Wars (Sex Live)

[XelNya]

Wait, what's the vote count?

[DaBackpack]

I have to ask if Tokzic's scheme to claim hobo to get the real hobos to come out to him is a followup to dlgn's plan to get the hobos to come out to him.

Tokzic fakeclaimed hobo and wanted the other hobos to come to him. Thus, the wolves in some way thought they would benefit from the hobos coming out.

[YoshL]

Votes from post 1437 to post 1682
Night in 21:55:16
---

• Votes -- Lynch -- Voters
• 2 -- DaBackpack -- storn42 (15), rzr (10)
• 2 -- dLGN -- AragakiAyase (56), DaBackpack (48)
• 1 -- storn42 -- dLGN (85)
• 3 -- not voting -- botchi246 (0), roundbox (10), XelNya (16)

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by dLGN

if you think I do this as mafia i don't know what to tell you. but i'm pretty sure I can defend myself if this actually sticks around until EOD.

Tokzic did that same kind of crafting, so the point is moot

[AragakiAyase]

Originally Posted by dLGN

if you think I do this as mafia i don't know what to tell you. but i'm pretty sure I can defend myself if this actually sticks around until EOD.

ok then try using an argument that doesn't involve "I'm town and you should believe me"

[rzr]

Today's log thus far

rzr [12:26 AM]
Thoughts on xel?

dlgn [12:26 AM]
dunno, not a priority for me

rzr [12:27 AM]
I didn't ask that

dlgn [12:27 AM]
my thoughts

​[12:27]
are I don't know

rzr [12:27 AM]
You're on storn for the same reasons that I suspect xel

dlgn [12:27 AM]
and I am more interested in other people right now

​[12:27]
ok?

rzr [12:28 AM]
You have absolutely no opinion on xel and aren't interested in exploring if he could be a wolf? or a partner to your suspect?

dlgn [12:28 AM]
i dont see them together like you do

rzr [12:29 AM]
I've said I think a storn/xel team is very unlikely

​[12:29]
I think between them one is scum and I would also tend to say that role is the movie stalker as it implies inactivity to begin with

dlgn [12:29 AM]
i think that is pure speculation

​[12:29]
but you're entitled to that

rzr [12:30 AM]
It's not likely that both wolves are ridiculously inactive imo

​[12:30]
which supports both of our ideas

dlgn [12:30 AM]
i really don't know, I need to step away from the game for a little i think

​[12:31]
too frustrated

As much as I really hate to do this I have to vote dlgn for now. I hate being part of a wagon or possible mislynch, but this is the time where I want to really focus on who are possible team mates. I don't see most of his posts recently coming from town POV. If dlgn is a wolf I say Xel, who's last few posts were very interesting, would definitely be a good candidate for partner. Him or round, but that conflicts with my town read on roundbox.

[dLGN]

lol

[dLGN]

town does not deserve to win this, it's really that simple.

[rzr]

Originally Posted by dLGN

town does not deserve to win this, it's really that simple.

Dlgn, I wish I could see a more clearly drafted case by you, especially on storn if that's where your suspicions lay. It's hard to imagine town not pushing for their life by convincing the thread of their suspects - or at least trying

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by dLGN

town does not deserve to win this, it's really that simple.

nice

[dLGN]

i don't have a corny case of quotes and some narrative I'd like to construct to paint a pretty mafia picture for you, sorry. I don't play like that.

part of that is because storn has done almost nothing this game. so it's just a gut read. if he's town, i don't give a shit at this point, he hasn't projected it.

same for xel, but I am a little less sure, it seemed like xel actually had thoughts he hadn't shared today, had memories and feelings about certain people that seemed to spontaneously come up (except for the whole quoting my first post this game as a wow moment, that was kinda bad, but whatever)

[rzr]

I mean yeah we messed up lynching Xiz, but he kinda put the nail in his own coffin at first. Town clearly deserves to win if the wolves felt so intimidated last night they thought kamikaze-ing Tokzic was their absolute best plan.

[YoshL]

Votes from post 1437 to post 1692
Night in 21:00:30
---

• Votes -- Lynch -- Voters
• 3 -- dLGN -- AragakiAyase (57), DaBackpack (50), rzr (13)
• 1 -- DaBackpack -- storn42 (15)
• 1 -- storn42 -- dLGN (88)
• .01 -- roundbox -- Phantom
• 3 -- not voting -- botchi246 (0), roundbox (10), XelNya (16)

2 TIL INSTA

[rzr]

Originally Posted by dLGN

i don't have a corny case of quotes and some narrative I'd like to construct to paint a pretty mafia picture for you, sorry. I don't play like that.

part of that is because storn has done almost nothing this game. so it's just a gut read. if he's town, i don't give a shit at this point, he hasn't projected it.

same for xel, but I am a little less sure, it seemed like xel actually had thoughts he hadn't shared today, had memories and feelings about certain people that seemed to spontaneously come up (except for the whole quoting my first post this game as a wow moment, that was kinda bad, but whatever)

My concern with Xel is how he came in earlier and checked in, but I can't get any response from him when I called him out on being scum.


I think it's safe to say id dlgn is a wolf storn is not. And again it would be between Xel, who's MIA-ness just sucks, but this particular game I've seen a lot less town oriented posts in general. Or roundbox who had defended dlgn hard in the beginning and took quite some time to come around on him.

I've already said I don't think round is a wolf, so it's between dlgn and Xel. Town gains very little info from a xel lynch no matter what he flips as. Dlgn, even if he is town, would be much more informative to the big picture.
The only thing that concerns me about a dlgn mislynch is xel as a player conributing to town is worth very little, whereas dlgn as town and contributing to town cause is worth a lot more.

[rzr]

I'm actually gonna move my vote to xel before I go to bed in case dlgn is town and wolves rush over night. Xel is a good vote, but not who I ultimately think should go today.

[dLGN]

when I flip town please do not lynch rzr. i'll take the blame for the loss on that one. my mind is made up.

[roundbox]

dLGN:

-When the game started, he posted a strategy off of the bat. Setup is a big deal to me so seeing this was a nice thing. After trying for hours in chat to come up with an idea, I conceded that dLGN's plan had the best chances of working. We both agreed that town had to have some sort of plan. V essentially kicked this door down and said he was hiding in the Kidz Zone and that any plan to control hiding spots was inherently bad.

-dLGN is a new player to this community, so I gave him a pass on d1. I have a post on this earlier, so take a look at that (it's where I respond to AA's points)

For these two points above, I shelved dLGN on my town-sided list in that first phase of the game. Other lynching concerns came up, so I focused on them instead.

-Our logs look like shit. If we could recover chat from the beginning of the game, it was me bullshitting around that I thought it would be hilarious to have an entire conversation in emojis. dLGN took me up on this. There is one line in there where I'm trying to ask him if tokzic was the hobo that claimed to him (the biohazard part). If there was something I wanted to talk to him about, I just did it in the main channel. Our discussion about town strategy was all in the slack.

Time to look at his posts/vote patterns:

-His entrance into the thread was purely arrogance. It has definitely died down since then, but dLGN was openly hostile to dissenting opinions. This is an unnecessary risk to take as any alignment as it puts you in the spotlight from the get-go. Being bullheaded is definitely not diplomatic. I don't want to put an alignment on this strategy unless it falls into
ARGUMENT =/= dLGN town:
shit
It depends on the argument, but this logic is inherently flawed.

Originally Posted by dLGN

thinking about it pregame I decided it was a strong play to make as vanilla villager, a lol questionable / potentially strong play to make as a homeless guy, and suicidal to make as scum.

This post tells us this entire plan was premeditated. It's going to gather attention from players regardless of alignment. From any alignment, you could argue that he did this for the interest of town. The only thing here that would cause an issue if he were scum/hobo is that the plan called for his death to be successful. This last line is the only thing here that makes this plan seem like it was coming from him as town. My only question is: what would he post in the event he was scum? The same thing?

Looking at his interactions with dead players, Charu and Gradiant (town) were bashing heads with him, as well as Tokzic who made a post publicly that his cockiness made him scummier. Potential distancing (coaching???), but something tells me this might be confirmation bias from me.

Originally Posted by Tokzic

this paragraph in particular makes it feel like you could be a wolf taking advantage of knowing the village prs identities and night strategy

the irony here. This feels like it's on the edge of voting territory for Tokzic since it would conflict with his plan. I don't think this is a W/W interaction since their strategies conflict and Tokzic wanted control. Town points here.

Tokzic and him go back and forth and really drive this point home. From a W/W perspective I'd eventually see one of them agree with each other since gaining control of the alliance is a good thing for the wolf team, regardless of which member.

Originally Posted by dLGN

there will never be a dLGN wagon this game, don't worry XD

Originally Posted by dLGN

i'll bury the shit out of rzr when i'm ready to

I take it you're not ready then since he is now further back in your lynching order? I want to know which point made you promote his town status.

Especially considering this:

dlgn [7:11 PM] 
i think you're mafia =/

​[7:12] 
i'm going to go eat dinner now but i'll explain in thread when i'm back

​[7:12] 
nothing personal

​[7:12] 
and it is early

​[7:12] 
but idk if I can be convinced otherwise

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

Another possibility is having three plans written up beforehand, and now he is executing one of those now

THE MINDMELDS

Originally Posted by dLGN

oh don't you worry, ima bring THE BIG FREEZE on saturday >: )

dLGN mention in an earlier post that he wasn't really able to pocket any of us since he didn't know our playstyles/mindsets. If this doesn't seem pockety to you, I don't know what is. I could also see this as a strategic pocket on a new player to put them in a position to never vote for them. Scum points

dLGN continuing to adapt and change strategy makes him look good against Tokzic again.

Originally Posted by dLGN

i think rzr is town. annoying, but town.

I think charu is town.

storn idk

A complete reversal here on rzr, going from WOLF to TOWN. His read on rzr keeps wavering, which seems like he might be a wolf trying to keep options/suspicions open so he can set up a lynch later and look convincing.

Originally Posted by dLGN

think his scum reads are town pretty much

This is in response to why he voted Xiz (fyi, this is before the whole homeless guy debacle). This reason sucks ass, and Xel pointed this out. Disagreeing with reads != scum.

Originally Posted by dLGN

my boy botchi ;_;

read: "my pocket botchi ;_;"

Originally Posted by dLGN

i'm not crazy about gradiant and don't feel so good about the fact that he's the one voting with me on xiz but wtf part of what he said was a slip?!?

Originally Posted by dLGN

gradiant

because lol.

the fuck is this? There's no way these posts line up. You're saying that the "slip" pointed out doesn't make sense, and then you vote on gradiant shortly after "because lol." This is horribly suspect, like, what the fuck.

Originally Posted by dLGN

hey dumbass, the people following this thread are currently voting the outed wolf

Once again, with the above point.

Originally Posted by Tokzic

dlgn

Quote this post to see the log, but something tells me that this interaction right here might make these two of different alignments.

xiz [4:08 PM] 
read gradiants posts again

​[4:08] 
do it now.

dlgn [4:08 PM] 
yeah i'm going

xiz [4:08 PM] 
*in thread

dlgn [4:09 PM] 
ohhhhhh

​[4:09] 
LMAO

​[4:09] 
LMFAO

​[4:09] 
HE SAID THAT WITH A VOTE PARKED ON YOU

​[4:09] 
HAHAHAHHAHAHA

​[4:09] 
GG

​[4:09] 
wtf is wrong with me LOL

​[4:10] 
i even said that in my question about what the slip is

​[4:10] 
hahahahahaha

xiz [4:10 PM] 
I hope you know this makes you town-lean to scum-lean

dlgn [4:10 PM] 
that's fine

From Xiz log. It looks like this answers my question from earlier as to why the switch happened. Makes more sense now.

Originally Posted by dLGN

xiz - why did you feel the need to soft to tokzic at first and not just claim outright to him? what purpose did softing serve? and then why did you feel the need to hardclaim when you did?

Just quoting this for reference to say that dLGN started the phase with Xiz in his crosshairs.

Originally Posted by dLGN

disagree. if you are planning on fakeclaiming I think you are never the movie stalker. potentially getting yourself lynched d1 or d2 for fakeclaiming is not worth a fking bathroom slot. xiz claimed under pressure, claiming there is about survival, that IS something to gain, as a wolf. it's really pretty simple.

mindmeld here

Originally Posted by dLGN

who are the wolves on his wagon, fypov? who is going along with the easy lynch?

like it's easy to say what you're saying right now because it's a pretty universal opinion but the important part of your thought is WHO, otherwise it's just an interesting narrative to address after the flip

ruffle some feathers like backpack said, call someone a wolf, do anything so I can get a better read on you, please

I like this line of questioning. He has plenty of less-assholey posts and questions during this phase, fyi.

Originally Posted by dLGN

if you don't realize I am laughing at your read on me

sorta :\

Originally Posted by dLGN

no regrets, don't claim wolf and laugh about pushing the gradiant lynch when you learn that the "slip" you called out wasn't.

i hate this game.

Dabackpack responded to this post saying he didn't like this response, but it makes sense from his point of view. dLGN stated that hobos were pretty weak for a PR so I get him here when he isn't terribly upset.

Originally Posted by dLGN

pastebin.com/CJ9DHnsp

decide for yourself if this convo is EVER w/w LOL

I didn't read this post until making this current post, and hey, looks like I already pointed this out.


There are some scummy things toward the beginning, but the tokzic interactions and optimal wolf strategy just don't add up, especially given tokzic's votes and hard evidence against him. Tokzic was the first to post the log between them (yes it was awkward for dlgn to bring it up himself) so I'm inclined to believe tokzic was setting up a relatively easy mislynch. fuck, dlgn is probably town here

[roundbox]

also I'm pretty sure I know exactly how dabackpack will react to this so I will respond here:

no

[roundbox]

also, xel

still not buying it, friend

[dLGN]

you put too much effort into that, lmao. at this point I don't think it took that much to pocket me, but you have been defending me from the start for some reason and I was probably already pocketed.

i'm going to take a little time to think about it and respond because you deserve that.