TWG CLVI: The Grand TWGabout - GAME THREAD

[inDheart]

okay, we'll see how this goes - i am now on my computer, no guarantee this will be working later today but it's fine for now at least

gonna take this opportunity to do some chkdsk

[inDheart]

oh i forgot you can't like check the boot part live duh

so not doing that right now, but i have work...maybe i'll just try to keep this running until i can game post

[YoshL]

Originally Posted by inDheart

i'll get this down while it's on my mind: wasn't charu's biggest wolf read AA?

they're both dead.

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by Wineandbread

Maybe it's just that I don't have the same kind of emotions for TWG but I can't emphasize with Charu's reaction. I'd also like to point out that you never called tokzic out for it at EoD

Also if you see post 1291, I noticed the thing about tokzic's votes before you brought it up

I'd just like to elaborate on this pattern though:

First "lul"-tier vote on Charu comes at 9:17pm
Swaps to Zenith at 9:38, he's in the middle of reading from what I can tell from his other posts
Revotes Charu at 9:40. This is an interesting one cause he prefaces it with "nobody huh", looks like he's trying to gauge another town reaction from his voteswap to Zenith
Unvotes at 9:51, in reaction to a post by Charu
Votes DBP at 9:52, no reasoning given
Unvotes at 9:53, no reasoning given
Votes back at 9:58, after being convinced of himself that either sunsfan or Charu is red
Note that hardly any real reasoning is given in his reads (although understandable since it was nearing EoD)

It's just a really chaotic line of action and rubs me the wrong way

Gonna park a vote on Tokzic for the time being

K bedtime

Considering that Gradiant was talking about you re reasons for hating Charu's reactions to Tokzic, my first reaction to this post is one of deflection. Good place to park a vote tho

Originally Posted by Charles Claythorne

I feel bad about the Charu lynch, but I think there's definitely a lot of hindsight bias in this post if you're Human. I'm curious too about why you weren't so vigorously against the lynch last Day Phase - I'm not sure what you mean by "out of date reading novels."


I'm sorry, but I actually disagree (ilu still tho Zenith <333). Fake effort posting through long synopses is a behavior I expect (and have seen) more from Wolves than Humans, since it's generally harder to fake "legitimate" reasoning. Admittedly, it was the wrong call on my part to vote for him, but given the little time left in the Phase, I don't know what better we could have done. I was suspicious of Antronach too and it turned out he was a Special; so a wagon on him could have been more disastrous.

I think anyone who was feeling impassioned regarding which of the two wagons to favor might be an indication of Wolfiness (definitely would like to hear more from Tokzic in particular). On the other hand though, I'm even more confident about sunfan being Human, considering how absurdly ambivalent he was about the lynch. I still can't fathom how he possibly could have done a 180 on AragakiAyase, but I can't really think of a good reason sunfan would do that as a Wolf anyway.


I had a gut feeling suspicion near the middle of the Phase about Charu's posting. When he started posting page-by-page thoughts, I felt like they came more off as summary than actual analysis, which I believe is likelier to come from a Wolf, especially considering all the atypically long posts being made in the game. I also didn't like Charu's over-the-top reactions to Tokzic - it's clearly confirmation bias in hindsight, but I had thought it could have been attempted distancing.


I've been feeling the same way tbh


I don't really understand the night kills, as I feel both AragakiAyase and Antronach were both potentially easy kills last Day Phase. I don't think either of them really did anything to lead to believe they were Specials either, but I wasn't searching for any last Phase and I don't really see an indication of such anyway from End of Day. Might not be worth speculating too much on night kills for now though, I guess.

I was way far back in the thread, reading everyone's wall of text.

I don't think you actually gave Charu's post a solid read if you still came to that conclusion.

Originally Posted by inDheart

fair warning to anyone who gets win10 updates: the latest update is really, really bad

if i do not post anything substantive tonight it is because this update has broken my boot partition

Holy shit.

Win7 for life

Originally Posted by inDheart

i'll get this down while it's on my mind: wasn't charu's biggest wolf read AA?

That Is correct.

[MixMasterLar]

Liking the effort Xel put into Charu's post. Imma be back later but i'm going to start reading from there when I get back

[YoshL]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

Considering that Gradiant was talking about you re reasons for hating Charu's reactions to Tokzic, my first reaction to this post is one of deflection. Good place to park a vote tho

I was way far back in the thread, reading everyone's wall of text.

I don't think you actually gave Charu's post a solid read if you still came to that conclusion.

Holy shit.
Win7 for life

That Is correct.

(whitespace mostly removed)

this is why i think MML is rubbing me seriously wrong. I know i'm probably continuing to ring a bell that's been shattered and broken by now, but there's quite honestly no real "contribution" at all. He's making his posts seem massive by padding them with quotes from other people. Like, even then, nothing he's saying is actually saying anything
"that's a good place to park a vote" - what does this even mean why are you saying this
"
"I don't think you actually gave Charu's post a solid read if you still came to that conclusion." - what does this offer up
"That is correct." - this question isn't even about you

"Liking the effort Xel put into Charu's post." - good job telling us anything specific, rather than "this looks like he spent time on it so good job"

[XelNya]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

Liking the effort Xel put into Charu's post. Imma be back later but i'm going to start reading from there when I get back

You better make sure you read that post carefully.

Especially the first spoiler.

[XelNya]

How to describe the first spoiler



It's explosive.

/bad joke care not

[Xiz]

Originally Posted by XelNya

If you maybe put this into context of charu soley, I can understand the argument (I disagree with it.) However, I do not know how this screams wolf, because if he REALLY wanted to he could have just merged ALL OF THESE into one fucking post.

It was a garbage read I made without reading any of charu's work, I've stated that already in my 2nd massive post. After going through I realized how much work it took.

However, near the end of the day I did consider charu to be neutral and I was considering changing my vote from MML -> Charu, but the one post that made me not vote him was...

Originally Posted by Charu

Stupid as hell, really wanted to play this shit.

Whatever, guess I learned something from this.

Don't reread the game and try to help

Gotcha everyone, thanks for seeing the error of my ways,.

Originally Posted by Charu

Suck a dick everyone.

Originally Posted by Xiz

im no longer on the charu train

[Xiz]

Also

@XelNya

Right after my post, tozkic did unvote charu there immediately, so I HAVE to give him towny points for that.
I'm surprised you didn't really comment on that, unless I missed it?

[Xiz]

Actually... yeah i'm really curious about that. You gave a great analysis on tozkic but left out one of the most crucial elements in regards to tokzic at EOD

xelnya

[inDheart]

Originally Posted by inDheart

i'll get this down while it's on my mind: wasn't charu's biggest wolf read AA?

so i'm not so sure that the train of thought that drove me to post this makes sense to me anymore.

opening question while i run to the store real quick: the exact "who killed who" in the night isn't something that's already exposed by the text in roundbox's post, correct? i believe that's the way it is but insecure me needs confirmation

if i'm wrong on this then i'm going to feel reaaaaalllly silly about how i was thinking about this

and yeah i know they're both dead

[inDheart]

by "who killed who" i mean "wolves killed player A", "SK killed player B"

[inDheart]

"any story posted is unrelated to night actions" pretty much answers my question

all right, post is go then

[inDheart]

actually screw it. my post had too many assumptions about the setup rolls

i say this because night actions have the potential to confound whatever i'd want to parse out of who killed AA vs. arnt - what i wanted to say was kind of riding on those being the people that the killing roles actually intended to kill

just gonna sleuth the wagons instead

[inDheart]

Originally Posted by Xiz

Right after my post, tozkic did unvote charu there immediately, so I HAVE to give him towny points for that.
I'm surprised you didn't really comment on that, unless I missed it?

well maybe tokz can answer this but he quoted charu, not you

so unless he was spamming that refresh key on the reply page seeing where the wagons were going, he could just be responding to the same post you did

[_Zenith_]

Originally Posted by inDheart

actually screw it. my post had too many assumptions about the setup rolls

i say this because night actions have the potential to confound whatever i'd want to parse out of who killed AA vs. arnt - what i wanted to say was kind of riding on those being the people that the killing roles actually intended to kill

just gonna sleuth the wagons instead

This is too unsettling imo

[XelNya]

Originally Posted by Xiz

Actually... yeah i'm really curious about that. You gave a great analysis on tozkic but left out one of the most crucial elements in regards to tokzic at EOD

xelnya

I'll adress you when I get home.

[inDheart]

Originally Posted by _Zenith_

This is too unsettling imo

i mean i can still say what i had at least, because let's say they were the intended targets

i'll start with the premise that wolves killed AA - why would they want to do that? charu was seemingly the biggest AA hater by the end, but town killed charu, and charu told us to read his posts. many others of us saw AA as null, perhaps town-sided, see: island, yoshl, mml, xel ft. zenith (there are others saying similar things - mashi and sunfan did - but sunfan basically followed that up by saying all his reads were bad). gradiant is a pretty notable exception to that.

wolves know AA isn't one of them, and also know the balance of town's opinion seems to mark AA as not definitively wolfy.

what makes this interesting is that AA was the other wagon. all else equal, it would have to be on AA himself to stop the wagon from riding again. this ought to be unattractive to the wolves - why slow down and off him if town can take care of him the next day? that's why i have a little more trouble seeing AA as the wolf kill.

arnt, otoh, lacked as much warmth, with people reading him null to scum lean in those very same posts above (and here's mashi feeling scum as well). the posts quoted here and the following exchange didn't exactly inspire confidence in gradiant or zenith, who both voted for him. but arnt never really swung as much as yesterday's favorites did. kill motivation (for either team honestly) here might be that there just weren't as strong feelings for him over others.

tl;dr i feel like wolves killed arnt and SK killed AA, but i'm trying too hard to understand this like a vanilla game when it's not

the goal of my thinking like this was to see whether any potential SK/wolves would be particularly inclined to make either of these kills. i'm about to finish up rereading charu's posts and look at eod0 more closely, so we'll see

[YoshL]

there's always the x factor of roleblocker or doctor or w/e is in the setup landing, but that's a little bit of a far reach for now given the amount of information that we have right now