TWG CXXI Mis-speling BOM

[cedolad]

tragic.my heartstrings.

bye charu

[Silvuh]

Originally Posted by cedolad

soft claim doc in hopes the wolves would just target me instead of psycho. Forgot there was a roleblocker still so it didn't work.

Originally Posted by cedolad

I was trying to get them to roleblock me, hoping they thought I was the real doc and Psycho could get a report, if you had saved her at least we would've had some sort of leverage!

Care to explain yourself?

[cedolad]

Originally Posted by Silvuh

Care to explain yourself?

What else is there that you would like to know?

[DaBackpack]

This is so shitty I don't even know what to do.

Also screw you cedo.

I have a shitty idea... doubt we want to follow it but let me think it through

[Silvuh]

You've made two incompatible claims.

1. Your intent was to be roleblocked by the wolves.
2. It didn't work because you forgot there was a roleblocker.

The only explanation for you making both these claims is if you are the roleblocker.

[DaBackpack]

no lynch

[cedolad]

Originally Posted by Silvuh

You've made two incompatible claims.

1. Your intent was to be roleblocked by the wolves.
2. It didn't work because you forgot there was a roleblocker.

The only explanation for you making both these claims is if you are the roleblocker.

Then lets flip me and find out.

[DaBackpack]

I thought it through a bit.

See, here's the scenario.
What I mentioned yesterday just got even more crucial for anti-town. They NEED to kill the other in order to win.
I feel we can take advantage of that.

Obviously, we want to nail an anti-town this turn. But if we MISLYNCH, we are at 6 people NOW, down to 5, and we can be drawn to a situation where it is impossible for town to win at all. (1 town, 2 antitown is a draw).


Imagine a no-lynch. We are stuck at 6 people. Worst case for the night, is that we are left with 4 people.
The worst non-losing scenario for town is 2 greens 2 reds.

If the two Greens vote no lynch, then the anti-town are basically forced to target each other or they die. It's a classic game theory problem.

[cedolad]

cedload

[DaBackpack]

This sounds ridiculous, but what do you think? I've listed the worst case scenarios in which we can essentially force the anti-towns to attack each other.

Obviously, better case scenarios work even better for town.

[DaBackpack]

cedo don't be an idiot

please let me know of any vulnerabilities in my reasoning, there's a chance I'm missing something crucial

obviously two people will be opposed to my idea but what about the others?

[cedolad]

If we end up with 2 Green, 2 Red, regardless if we lynch an anti-town that day, we lose.

[DaBackpack]

Here's the breakdown of possibilities.

o NO LYNCH -> two anti-town die in night -> TOWN WIN
o NO LYNCH -> one anti-town die in night and one green dies -> we are left with three green one red
o NO LYNCH -> two greens die -> two green two reds -> two greens vote "no lynch" -> no lynch wins, the reds target each other in the night -> TOWN WIN

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by cedolad

If we end up with 2 Green, 2 Red, regardless if we lynch an anti-town that day, we lose.

if we're left with 2 greens, and the two greens vote no lynch, the no lynch vote wins. (the reds aren't going to agree on a target)

If the serial killer targets a green, there's the chance the Mafia will target the SK and the SK will lose. Therefore, the SK's best chances of winning are targeting the MAFIA.

Same goes vice versa.

Now the SK and the mafia can agree to make a truce and kill the greens, but I doubt that would happen / they can't trust each other during the night.

[DaBackpack]

Actually, I want to clear this with YoshL.

If there's 2 town, 1 mafia, and 1 SK, what happens? Can the scenario I've produced actually happen, or is it instalose for town?

[DaBackpack]

Actually, my reasoning ignores the fact that the SK might have 1-shot bulletproof.

But there was only one kill during the night, is it possible the mafia targeted the serial killer?
Then the mafia knows who the serial killer is?
(Though it's likely they both targeted Charu... )
there's a lot of possibilities, I want someone else (iluswirl) to say what they think

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by cedolad

cedload

And YoshL, does the Serial Killer get a message saying they were targeted by the mafia in the night?

Might be stretching it a bit, but this self-vote is extremely fishy, it could be that cedo knows that the mafia knows who he is?

[DaBackpack]

or is cedo just being stupid

[cedolad]

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

or is cedo just being stupid

Being stupid because Silvuh's trying to call me out on being the roleblocker.

[YoshL]

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

Actually, I want to clear this with YoshL.

If there's 2 town, 1 mafia, and 1 SK, what happens? Can the scenario I've produced actually happen, or is it instalose for town?

sk and mafia can target eachother, town wins

i do believe that sk gets confirmation that they were shot at.