TWG 206: Betrayal at House on the Hill GAME THREAD

[Charu]

Re: TWG 206: Betrayal at House on the Hill GAME THREAD

right, it's not a lot of intel; but the only other option is just letting the werewolves eat someone and gaining no intel at all. I think that's the point lar and the others are trying to make

Good man!

[MixMasterLar]

Re: TWG 206: Betrayal at House on the Hill GAME THREAD

Broken tags yay

[Charu]

Re: TWG 206: Betrayal at House on the Hill GAME THREAD

Certainly. I'm looking at this as percentages. if you have 10 players in a game and 2 of them are evil, you have a 20% chance of hitting wolf. they kill someone and you're down to 9 players remaining, now you have 22.2% chance. this increases as the townies die.

HOWEVER, to make a successful vote, there needs to be a sizeable concurrence amongst voters. given the wolves are usually not going to vote for themselves, that voting pool needs to be higher than the wolves. so the critical point would be when 5 players remain (3 townies, 2 wolves) or 3 players remain( 2 townies 1 wolf).

In the meantime, we have one source of consistent intel each night- the Seer. whom will reveal one role (the first tick of which did not result in a wolf being revealed). each time the seer can see a new players role, the more like this is to hit a wolf. so the more nights a seer has to potentially discover a wolf before we reach the critical point of 5 (or 3) players, the better our odds are.

Essentially, our best strategy is to stall and make the werewolves spend as many nights as possible to whittle our numbers while we either hope they make the first mistake in discussion or our seer is able to share actionable intel. The longer we keep as many townies as possible alive, the longer we have to gain intel that we can use once we get closer to that critical point.

If the Seer dies, this hurts the strategy considerably, but by this point our odds are better of actually hitting a wolf on a no-intel vote.

What I'm getting our this.

Don't play the game............

[Lights]

Re: TWG 206: Betrayal at House on the Hill GAME THREAD

What I'm getting our this.

Don't play the game............

Why wouldn't we use the math to our advantage?

[Lights]

Re: TWG 206: Betrayal at House on the Hill GAME THREAD

idk about you guys, but im not tryna let our town fall to the werewolves

[mellon_collie]

Re: TWG 206: Betrayal at House on the Hill GAME THREAD

Why wouldn't we use the math to our advantage?

There are two parts of TWG: math and arguing

I've found decent luck in my time playing completely ignoring the math part

The meat and bones and soul of the game is the arguing

[Charu]

Re: TWG 206: Betrayal at House on the Hill GAME THREAD

Let's assume everyone just decided not to post at all. Have only the night actions go off.

You're suggesting every player should just not even *attempt* to solve the game and just let the Seer do checks until they get the necessary info.

Am I understanding this logic right?

[Lights]

Re: TWG 206: Betrayal at House on the Hill GAME THREAD

There are two parts of TWG: math and arguing

I've found decent luck in my time playing completely ignoring the math part

The meat and bones and soul of the game is the arguing

oh gosh... we're all gonna die ;-;

[mellon_collie]

Re: TWG 206: Betrayal at House on the Hill GAME THREAD

There are two parts of TWG: math and arguing

I've found decent luck in my time playing completely ignoring the math part

The meat and bones and soul of the game is the arguing

And arguing about concepts and theories is boring, the fun starts when you start arguing about why you did some specific action in the game and defending yourself!! Or burying a wolf!! Or being wrong and burying a town but at least you tried!!!

[mellon_collie]

Re: TWG 206: Betrayal at House on the Hill GAME THREAD

oh gosh... we're all gonna die ;-;

In theory, only three of us have to die if we get it correct right away

[Lights]

Re: TWG 206: Betrayal at House on the Hill GAME THREAD

Let's assume everyone just decided not to post at all. Have only the night actions go off.

You're suggesting every player should just not even *attempt* to solve the game and just let the Seer do checks until they get the necessary info.

Am I understanding this logic right?

Theres still room for discussion (try to bait werewolves into making a less-ambiguous mistake to act upon), but largely the Seer is the most powerful tool available to the town in terms of gaining firm actionable intel and the most reliable strategy will be one that gives the Seer as many opportunities to do their magic as possible.

[star-crossed]

Re: TWG 206: Betrayal at House on the Hill GAME THREAD

VOTECOUNT:

FreezinIce- 2 (Voted by NoobiesAreTheBest Post #133 and Arp! Post #138)
NoobiesAreTheBest- 1 (Voted by Charu Post #128)

Voting Rules:
The day will end at midnight server time - about two hours remain. Votes made at 00:00 will be counted, but ensure that you have stopped posting before 00:01.
With 9 alive, instalynch would occur at 5 votes.
KITB: On
No Lynch: Off

[MixMasterLar]

Re: TWG 206: Betrayal at House on the Hill GAME THREAD

Goes without saying I guess but we ain't voting Lights here, maybe ever

One hell of a push for a new wolf, unless they're being couched hard in wolfchat but I honestly don't believe that happens near as much has people claim

[mellon_collie]

Re: TWG 206: Betrayal at House on the Hill GAME THREAD

Theres still room for discussion (try to bait werewolves into making a less-ambiguous mistake to act upon), but largely the Seer is the most powerful tool available to the town in terms of gaining firm actionable intel and the most reliable strategy will be one that gives the Seer as many opportunities to do their magic as possible.

But what about when a wolf pretends to be the seer? The rest of us will have no way to know who is telling the truth

[MixMasterLar]

Re: TWG 206: Betrayal at House on the Hill GAME THREAD

Oh No Lynch is OFF
so I mean that settles it I guess