TWG 210: Vanilla Ice Cream in Sprite [GAME THREAD]

[FreezinIce]

im probably gonna take a break and sleep soonish, and not the fever dream sleep where i leave my light on and just lay on my bed and have a nightmare about sunfan being a wolf but actual sleep.

At the moment like i mentioned earlier im stuck between 2 paradigms, dbp xelnya botchi and Sunfan / bugkid / X

Haku i think is a very low % chance of being a wolf here, after a quick reread his pairings and solving last phase did not feel faked.

talking about dbp xelnya botchi here, without exploring behaviors that link them and just based off my feelings on each of them botchi is lowest confidence hit here out of the 3, his posting seemed pretty good and i didnt feel anything really off about him (when hes been here). Mechanically however he isnt low confidence at all, he has been on multiple wagons and some of them have implicated xelnya and dbp with him, making botchi the lynchpin that connects them all.

sunfan / bugkid / x is what i get when i reject the current narrative and look outside of it. It explains a few things, namely sunfan still being alive, bugkid and sunfan having occasionally the same thoughts and pushes. The problem is this is an incomplete team and im not really sure who would be the 3rd here.

I think when town whiffs on every single lynch and has no hard info, this is where we end up. Either path has its share of risks, never mind the fact that i would probably have to bet my life against sunfans and convince every human that im right to pull this off and i hard tanked my towncred when i led HnHs wagon. The fact that this is the hardest path to victory makes me believe its the correct one but ill let things marinate a bit.

Haku having to leave here really sucks, pretty much the game is in his hands im pretty sure, whichever path he thinks is correct is the one town will be forced to go down.

[FreezinIce]

i meant to say botchi has BEEN multiple wagons, not has been on them

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by the sun fan

DBP, between these two posts that Freezin has pointed out were 8 minutes apart (and with two posts between them, fwiw)

you explain that ben is not genuinely paranoid, and it is strategic maneuvering

8 minutes later, it is specifically not strategic maneuvering, it is a subconscious thing produced by a reaction to two kinds of stress

I don't see what the problem is?

Wolf!Ben's behavior during day (when he is safe) gives him the opportunity to lay the groundwork for "multiple outs" in case later on one of his options becomes inconvenient (or even if one of them BECOMES convenient) <---- this is what I was referring to in the first post, iirc

Wolf!Ben's behavior during EOD (when he is closer to danger) still capitalizes on the fact that he hasn't committed or locked in to any narrative. It's panicked but he still has options so he can feign indecision so he doesnt "do anything weird" or out of left pocket <---- what i was referring to in the second post

I will admit I was pretty tunneled on Ben but I think my logic makes sense given what information we had at the time

[DaBackpack]

I'm also assuming some level of coaching because of wolfchat

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by the sun fan

if botchi is a wolf, this is an extremely critical and important votecount

freezins name is on there twice

I think Xel is a hit

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by roundbox

The Votecount

benguino (5) - DaBackpack, XelNya, ShadoWolfe, Hateandhatred, the sun fan

botchi246 (2) - benguino, FreezinIce
star-crossed (2) - bugkid666, mellon_collie
DaBackpack (1) - Hakulyte
the sun fan (1) - _Zenith_
bugkid666 (1) - star-crossed

Not voting - botchi246

Please let me know within 5 minutes if there are any inaccuracies (via Discord)

Sunfan, why didn't you use THIS votecount???

And how you swapped off of Botchi when the votes were 4-3????

[the sun fan]

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

but is it throwing if im right?

I feel obligated to say that it is only good for town if u actually win the thunderdome with a wolf if u r town so

like dbp declining star's thunderdome makes sense

[the sun fan]

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

Sunfan, why didn't you use THIS votecount???

And how you swapped off of Botchi when the votes were 4-3????

because that was the moment when botchi was more critically endangered
yes I switched to ben, I don't think it is that relevant
it isn't like I can expect people to like
forget that I ended the day on ben or something

[the sun fan]

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

freezins name is on there twice

yeah ok very fair I forgot about this point

[the sun fan]

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

I don't see what the problem is?

Wolf!Ben's behavior during day (when he is safe) gives him the opportunity to lay the groundwork for "multiple outs" in case later on one of his options becomes inconvenient (or even if one of them BECOMES convenient) <---- this is what I was referring to in the first post, iirc

Wolf!Ben's behavior during EOD (when he is closer to danger) still capitalizes on the fact that he hasn't committed or locked in to any narrative. It's panicked but he still has options so he can feign indecision so he doesnt "do anything weird" or out of left pocket <---- what i was referring to in the second post

I will admit I was pretty tunneled on Ben but I think my logic makes sense given what information we had at the time

tunnel aside (even all else aside really)
I... don't know that I feel any better about this having read it

in a quote chain in the first post (somehow I missed this on last night's reread) you criticized ben for couching (your word) reads, and one of the examples was "if x it town, y is a wolf" which is
a) the opposite of the wavering you are accusing him of
b) something so many other people were doing?? especially on ben/freezin/myself

[the sun fan]

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

Sunfan, why didn't you use THIS votecount???

And how you swapped off of Botchi when the votes were 4-3????

I have already explained myself on this point, but I should add that I was on mobile and it wasn't like
impossible for me to know that it was 4-3

I just saw the error and didn't know what was up
you can accuse me of lying in this case, but I don't think it makes sense for anyone to attempt to do so; it is the truth and hopefully it seems like it

it makes me feel... I guess marginally worse for switching off botchi, but not really
I tried to stop that eod from being any more chaotic, and I am glad that star was preserved over ben

If you're accusing me of being with botchi
I think that that is very silly

[FreezinIce]

In my paranoia fueled stupor I forgot that sunfan as a wolf declined a potential free win by coaching town towards zenith.

This doesn't absolve him (1 because wolves were already in a very dominant position and 2 because there is a chance zenith would come back or get replaced) but is a big point in his favor that I overlooked and makes me feel better about Xel DBP botchi over sunfan / bug / x.

[FreezinIce]

Originally Posted by the sun fan

I feel obligated to say that it is only good for town if u actually win the thunderdome with a wolf if u r town so

like dbp declining star's thunderdome makes sense

Yeah that's the issue. I think if you are a wolf here we just auto lose because nobody alive has enough town cred banked to thunderdome you and win, at least not at this point so it's more fruitful to look elsewhere and leave you till f3 if you somehow survive that long.

[FreezinIce]

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

In my paranoia fueled stupor I forgot that sunfan as a wolf declined a potential free win by coaching town towards zenith.

This doesn't absolve him (1 because wolves were already in a very dominant position and 2 because there is a chance zenith would come back or get replaced) but is a big point in his favor that I overlooked and makes me feel better about Xel DBP botchi over sunfan / bug / x.

And I realize that sunfan brought this up and I read it and agreed and then forgot. Mistakes were made ok? I blame the sunfan nightmare

[the sun fan]

Originally Posted by the sun fan

I went into this game essentially with a debuff to voting freezin on d0 which I know is bad and I know I shouldn't do but
this feels like his game and I don't want to nuke him d0, in his words, so that he actually feels marginally warmed up

fwiw I think his read on ben was bad; I kept expecting to encounter more posts from Ben that I could imagine freezin strongly townreading, but I didn't find them and I don't understand his progression

anyways I agree but it is for a stupid, ridiculous reason that I shouldn't have but do

@freezin if u start a dumbass thunderdome today, none of this applies!!! for real!!! not bluffing don't do it!!!

@freezin I did comment on ur sudden ben turnaround
you even commented on it later saying you felt bad that I read through ben's posts looking for what I thought was missing from your progression

[FreezinIce]

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

the sun fan - I've had my moments of paranoia and hesitation but he's lock town. his read progressions actually make sense when you trace them, and he hasn't had a single structural push that ties him to anyone. his votes and pushes and even switches have been pro-town. the way he got to ben at D0 EOD was genuinely painful to watch and felt real. his read on DBP has been independent and persistent across both phases. EVERYONE WHO IS LIKE ME AND GETS PARANOID, DO NOT TINFOIL THIS READ. Town.

Hakulyte - town. voted DBP at D0 when nobody else did. I can see he's evolved as a player since we used to play together, but there's a certain kind of tinfoil I relied on to be able to read when he was town and I haven't gotten it wrong yet and he's been showing it this game. his reads have been better than ever and show the evolution I'm talking about. he's also been updating on new information rather than entrenching or echoing endlessly. I don't have a single flag on him. town.


bugkid666 - their low D0 presence was explained upfront and the posts they did make were honest. their vibe has been genuine all game and their D2 (and earlier) read on DBP has personal weight that I think is real. they knows what wolf DBP looks like, or at least what town DBP doesn't look like, and they're calling it out. their observation in #1130 about whether two wolves would pile onto a wolf zenith and asking if that's why DBP switched was sharp and independent. solid town as well.


botchi246 - the D0 NV was bad and the D1 vote on me was thin. but D2 has been more engaged than I expected. his "I really don't see a wolf just voting by themselves" reasoning is at least a real principle and he's been honest about his own confusion throughout. the sunfan vote looks OMGUS to me and I think he'll admit that. slight town lean but I haven't done enough work to clear him properly.


FreezinIce - two bad EOD calls is a problem. he was on HnH with DBP at D1 EOD and they were the two most vocal drivers of that wagon. his D2 self-disclosure about playing on surface reads and tone rather than analysis was either genuine transparency or a wolf getting ahead of a read, and I can't tell which. his read shifts have tracked with whoever was most recently talking to him rather than developing independently. his mic drop of xel/botchi/zenith conspicuously excludes DBP. null, can't clear yet, and if zenith flips red his stocks go up.


XelNya - was early on the ben wagon alongside DBP in D0 without much stated reasoning, and ended on the zenith wagon at D1 EOD also without reasoning. Xel could easily bus, so not giving much points for that. low engagement across both phases. his D2 post was the most substantive thing he's produced all game but it arrived very late and some of his reasoning was hard to follow. slight wolf lean, lowest priority.


Zenith - today's vote. the D0 contradiction between threatening sunfan and later claiming he was "just building a town circle" has never been resolved. the PR comment in a vanilla setup generated four different explanations when pressed. he and DBP validated each other's case against ben in D0 and ben was town. he survived D1 only because DBP moved off him at the last second to create the coinflip. wolf read.


DaBackpack - covered in the post above. wolf.

Is this what got shado killed?

[FreezinIce]

Originally Posted by the sun fan

@freezin I did comment on ur sudden ben turnaround
you even commented on it later saying you felt bad that I read through ben's posts looking for what I thought was missing from your progression

oh right. My memory of early game is not the greatest it seems

[FreezinIce]

Also I hope you realize that spoiler is broken and to read it I had to quote the original post. Thats a bad job by you

[FreezinIce]

I'm gonna ask you something that sounds kind of presumptuous. Do you really think I'm a wolf here?

[the sun fan]

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

Is this what got shado killed?

if so, he can be right on only 2 of the 3 wolves, and is wrong in botchi/sunfan/haku/bugkid (from your perspective of course)

but maybe it was the DBP scumread that got him killed, yeah
that's maybe the simplest conclusion that can be drawn here