TWG 210: Vanilla Ice Cream in Sprite [GAME THREAD]

[the sun fan]

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

sunfan the more I think about it the less I want a zenith lynch here

I think DBP is the right move

vetoed

[Hakulyte]

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

So pretty much you want to solve your pairings and interactions to make the next days possible and leave zenith till the end?

Is Zenith supposed to be a higher priority than that for mechanical reasons ?

[Hakulyte]

tldr; yeah I want to solve my pairings.

I guess Zenith's flip would help 'cause I doubt Shado would W/W with him due to previous EoD.
So, in a way it would solve DBP/Shado as well to some extent.

If he flips town, I'm kinda back to zero.

[FreezinIce]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

Is Zenith supposed to be a higher priority than that for mechanical reasons ?

No.

There are no mechanics for mountainous other than the more counterwagons you are on the worse you look.

So he looks kind of bad from the perspective and the fact he has ghosted this entire phase, but nothing else that i can think of

[ShadoWolfe]

Originally Posted by the sun fan

vetoed

explain my guy. the "mechanical forced blah" doesn't cut it here.
I'll be 100% honest, my tinfoil world is DBP/sunfan/freezin and I feel like following you on Zenith is gonna be the literal death of me

[Hakulyte]

I'm starting to wonder if DBP/botchi will show up for EoD.

[FreezinIce]

I think im semi resetting my reads, the only 2 players i still think are town and off the table today are sunfan and haku. I will probably only clear other people if they pass the vibe check from now till eod. Anyone else is a potential target

[ShadoWolfe]

so I said earlier I'd explain the structural case against DBP and I want to do that now before EOD while I have the chance. thus far, his major moves this game have exclusively been anti-town, and near optimal wolf plays if wolf. with that said, town can make mistakes, so I tried to focus in on the moves themselves and figure out if they came from a genuine town perspective.

starting with D0, the progression of his reasoning for steering the wagon onto and mislynching benguino:
post

#439. DBP rescinds his mic drop/wet fart and pivots to "the freezin/ben interaction is wolf theater."

#448 he finds a specific ben post where ben said his read on someone depends on sunfan's opinion and calls it "very smelly."

#518 he says "I think I'm locking in on benguin."

I posted in #541 that I was worried about a ben lynch because all my reasons for it were associative and there was no wolf flipped to draw actual association from. DBP responded directly to that post in #549 and provided a framework for why the associations didn't matter as much. he said ben was specifically "couching" all his reads, always hedging, always keeping an exit: "I think X might be town, but I want to hear what sunfan has to say." "This person might be a wolf, but maybe X is instead." "If X is town, then Y is a wolf." he argued this was preemptive wiggle room, not genuine uncertainty.

then #555 he escalates it to the "escape hatch" framing, basically arguing ben's entire posting pattern was strategic maneuvering: "If a CFD happens on a bug wagon, then Ben can always 'safely' vote star instead." "If bug is town, then H&H is a wolf." "This is clear as day to me. IDK why no one else is noticing these things."
at this point, he had essentially cleared bug for the day so the failure to follow up with a vote or push on H&H seems weird.

zenith immediately responded in #565: "I didn't until you pointed it out in this way." the two of them validated each other's case on ben in real time

the connection between DBP and zenith in D0 matters for D1. DBP came into D1 with three votes on him between star, bugkid, and sunfan. he posted his will (#1013): "Im dead so here's where im at... ill at least leave a will." then "use your votes, cowards" (#1020). then when sunfan told him his despair seemed fake because zenith was dead if he just voted there, he said "I actually do but I'm beyond that despair" (#1024).

by VC #1044 he had no votes on him at all (haku moved to botchi, bugkid moved to botchi, sunfan moved to zenith), but he kept performing his dying man act til the final hammer
when he finally gave up the NV he had held throughout all of D1, he joined the zenith wagon briefly, probably because sunfan had given him an out that he couldn’t ignore, but as soon as the HnH wagon became viable, he ditched it. I saw the switch happen and moved back to zenith to put it in KitB.
HnH flipped town. zenith survived. and DBP's D2 agenda (#1058) was "revisit botchi, revisit xelnya, resolve freezin and shado." zenith isn't on it.

last thing: reading through EoD, his vibe does not seem to carry the same crazy frenzied EoD rush “WHAT ARE WE DOING” feeling that I think all of town is feeling in those moments

[Hakulyte]

Hey guess what, it's exactly the two players I wanted to vote out in the past 2 phases and couldn't.

How coincidental. It's almost like they're wolves or something.

[ShadoWolfe]

also bugkid and DBP are never W/W and I trust their read on DBP especially. star flipped town and she had railed against DBP and "Thunderdomed" him and only changed at the end result of their own self-stated 3AM paranoia

[FreezinIce]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

Hey guess what, it's exactly the two players I wanted to vote out in the past 2 phases and couldn't.

How coincidental. It's almost like they're wolves or something.

This is probably not a good idea but I'll go mercenary mode and help you out if no other insane info comes out. If only because i think the next eod would be really funny if you were right.

[the sun fan]

shado, I'll do my best to explain why we CAN'T kill afford not to kill Zenith
you are right that these are best left tto the mod normally
(I am missing out on something truly grand to be here btw I am experiencing FOMO)

Zenith is not here
he hasn't been here in a while, long enough for me to believe he isn't coming back
normally, this results in a replacement (or modkill)
the OP doesn't have anything about modkills for inactivity in it, I would be spitballing toi suppose something here

I think we have to operate under the assumption that he is not coming back, and that he will not be replaced (this is the most I will comment on the 2nd of these suppositions in this sentence)

Because of this, if he is a villager (which I think he likely isn't but w/e), town enters lylo essentially down a villager
in my estimation, we basically already have lost the game if this occurs

wolves can force a coinflip forever AT MINIMUM and town can only insta if a wolf busses another wolf, or votes for a town alongside town (which maybe they will, honestly, it is kinda based for wolves to just make town win the 12.5% rolls but I bet they'd be cowards instead since that feels like the theme of this game)

DBP (or whoever else) CAN be a wolf, obviously outside of zenith there are 2 or 3

but you cannot possibly tell me that you expect town to benefit immensely from
a) frontloading the flip from DBP (or whoever else) can possibly outweigh the risk of a permanent 12.5% win percentage
b) I actually forgot my 2nd point and checked a discord message and don't remembner, but in the interest of time, I will post this now

we ARE killing zenith, whoever else is wolfy WILL be here tomorrow, and town will either profit immensely by flipping zenith W or we will avoid forever disaster by flipping zenith T

killing Zenith even if he is town has genuinely the highest non-role related upside in a game I have ever seen

[FreezinIce]

*the next day, not eod. used the wrong word, phone posting isnt even an excuse

[the sun fan]

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

explain my guy. the "mechanical forced blah" doesn't cut it here.
I'll be 100% honest, my tinfoil world is DBP/sunfan/freezin and I feel like following you on Zenith is gonna be the literal death of me

I tried to get a cfd on DBP end of d0
literally only switch back to botchi because freezin pointed out botchi to me or it was nothing

if you think that was theater, you think it is exceptionally organized theater at a truly chaotic eod when I was on fucking mobile

[the sun fan]

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

explain my guy. the "mechanical forced blah" doesn't cut it here.
I'll be 100% honest, my tinfoil world is DBP/sunfan/freezin and I feel like following you on Zenith is gonna be the literal death of me

explain to me how town has better than 12.5% win percentage if zenith is town and enters lylo

[ShadoWolfe]

Originally Posted by the sun fan

shado, I'll do my best to explain why we CAN'T kill afford not to kill Zenith
you are right that these are best left tto the mod normally
(I am missing out on something truly grand to be here btw I am experiencing FOMO)

Zenith is not here
he hasn't been here in a while, long enough for me to believe he isn't coming back
normally, this results in a replacement (or modkill)
the OP doesn't have anything about modkills for inactivity in it, I would be spitballing toi suppose something here

I think we have to operate under the assumption that he is not coming back, and that he will not be replaced (this is the most I will comment on the 2nd of these suppositions in this sentence)

Because of this, if he is a villager (which I think he likely isn't but w/e), town enters lylo essentially down a villager
in my estimation, we basically already have lost the game if this occurs

wolves can force a coinflip forever AT MINIMUM and town can only insta if a wolf busses another wolf, or votes for a town alongside town (which maybe they will, honestly, it is kinda based for wolves to just make town win the 12.5% rolls but I bet they'd be cowards instead since that feels like the theme of this game)

DBP (or whoever else) CAN be a wolf, obviously outside of zenith there are 2 or 3

but you cannot possibly tell me that you expect town to benefit immensely from
a) frontloading the flip from DBP (or whoever else) can possibly outweigh the risk of a permanent 12.5% win percentage
b) I actually forgot my 2nd point and checked a discord message and don't remembner, but in the interest of time, I will post this now

we ARE killing zenith, whoever else is wolfy WILL be here tomorrow, and town will either profit immensely by flipping zenith W or we will avoid forever disaster by flipping zenith T

killing Zenith even if he is town has genuinely the highest non-role related upside in a game I have ever seen

I am missing amazing tacos that I MYSELF MADE on family night to be here, so I feel you on the FOMO

and I get where you're coming from now. I was a dumbass and forgot that we need the town VOTES, not just the content

[ShadoWolfe]

no, no, you're right. We lynch Zenith and only Zenith

[FreezinIce]

Oh thats what sunfan meant when he said mechanics. Vote mechanics

[the sun fan]

ok jesus I was worried we were in the twilight zone for a sec

[ShadoWolfe]

ok uhh reads real quick I guess would be good to get out

sunfan you do the same