TWG 210: Vanilla Ice Cream in Sprite [GAME THREAD]

[the sun fan]

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

sunfan how much time do you have?

it depends on when my friend(s) get here, so
idk
absolute max, 50 minutes or so

[ShadoWolfe]

Originally Posted by the sun fan

it depends on when my friend(s) get here, so
idk
absolute max, 50 minutes or so

rereading EoDs and leaving gut behind for a second, there's a strong structural case against DBP's vote steering / wagon engineering through the two phases. I was trying to see if I could believe a DBP/Zenith w/w world because it felt too.. right, but after D1 I think that's not just possible but likely. I don't have time to make it in 35 minutes, but I'll sit down and explain it after breakfast.

looking for the third wolf is way harder, but in a non tinfoil world based on w/w Zenith/DBP, it looks like it'd be either botchi or Xel, with Xel being I think individually scummier. Freezin has a slight link and probably in this phase has to explain some stuff I was willing to let go yesterday (sudden jerky movement of reads on you and sudden jerky movement of reads on me unexplained by anything other than "actually I believe this now"), but individually I think he's less likely than Xel specifically and more likely than botchi, but how well that fits in the world is unlikely.

I'm summarizing probably sooner than I should because I want your thoughts on worldbuilding before you leave since you said you may not be back in time for EoD

[ShadoWolfe]

I wish Zenith would've flipped yesterday and blame myself for wavering. I was tinfoiling too hard on sunfan and his shift to Zenith felt calculated the way he was putting it all on me. it felt like something powerwolf!sunfan would do to fracture town, but outside of Zenith I had nothing stronger than "these people feel ick", so I turned to star because I knew she'd put in way more work than I had at that point. when she moved to HnH I followed because HnH had made some posts that twisted my thoughts specifically and I had called him out as feeling wolfy for slant, but then he posted a reads list of sorts towards the end where he referenced the same thoughts about me (wolfreading me) but in a way that made me think he really believed them and that it wasn't a twist. it was already 8:00 (PDT) and I was gonna stay on HnH but then I saw DBP switch wagons and it screamed WOLF to me so I knew in my gut it was a mislynch and switched while hoping and praying 8:01 wouldn't hit while I was typing the vote

[ShadoWolfe]

I intend to crystallize my thoughts and explain them. maybe it's because today is the first day with less brainfog now that I'm recovering from being sick, but things are making more sense today than they have at any other point in the game before.

I think sunfan is right in the

mechanical lynch on zenith first

before lynching backpack. it isn't as forced as he claims and I'd probably fight it if it was on anyone else, but I'm willing to execute it on zenith. in the extremely unlikely world that zenith is town AND I get NKed, reassess sunfan tomorrow.

[the sun fan]

I don't know that I can realistically respond to this to my satisfaction

I will say that, gun to head, DBP feels like he belongs in a lot of worlds, and I'm at the same reason as you, EOD stuff

I think the zenith flip will resolve a lot
I think if zenith w, this game gets 48 times easier, because I don't think it can ever be you, and I don't think it can ever be me (but maybe I might already be there in towniness for a lot of people????) and it becomes a lot harder for it to be xel (but not impossible, I'm surprised you're as solid on that grouping of 3)
xel seems to fit as individually scummy outside of that on that operation

freezin wolf stocks fly through the roof in that event, too, maybe even above dbp's

I am not super bothered by his "jerky" read on me, I felt like he was doing the same thing with me that he did with ben (though the fact that he said he would immediately shoot me if he could gave me a small amount of pause before I decided I was on the same idea as I was before)

DBP was also the only person to offer any real defense of what Zenith was saying, saying it could just be uh
I don't want to misrepresent his words
but I think he was essentially saying it could just be Zenith's ego talking, rather than wolfiness
idk man I really hate that idea either way; like it feels like dbp is defending a partner if zenith W, and it feels like dbp is trying to get ahead of the read if scum (this one is weaker, I admit)
but I don't think I can make it look good in my head

idk how much this helps you really but the doorbell just rang, so I'm outta here
I'll try to check in with an hour or so left, there's a chance I'm too "relaxed""" but probably it'll just be me but botchified slightly

anyways that is worded horribly but I gotta go
I'll try really hard to be here later xoxo lets kill zenith ok?

[the sun fan]

I didn't see those other two posts before responding if you wanted me to also respond to those then it didn't work out that way sry

[the sun fan]

Got a quick sec
Really didnt miss much huh

Im not sure why you say it isnt as forced as I say it is, I figure we absolutely have to, but that probably isn't really a discussion worth having so long as you still agree

I also dont know what you mean by me "putting it all on you"

[bugkid666]

i will likely be busy the rest of the day but i'm not bothered between either dbp or zenith dying. in fact, i'll put my trust in sun man and zenith now

[bugkid666]

unfortunately i don't even think there's much i can respond to or deduce before eod as it stands. i'm gonna enjoy my day at knott's berry farm and trust in my vote as best as i'm able

[ShadoWolfe]

Originally Posted by the sun fan

Got a quick sec
Really didnt miss much huh

Im not sure why you say it isnt as forced as I say it is, I figure we absolutely have to, but that probably isn't really a discussion worth having so long as you still agree

I also dont know what you mean by me "putting it all on you"

it really isn't forced at all, mechanically speaking. it wouldn't even be optimal play if there wasn't the clear scum case against him. in similar situations in other games you yourself have basically said to leave stuff like this to the host and resolve to hunt wolves instead.

it just so happens that the mechanical play and the scumhunt point in the same direction

[ShadoWolfe]

I didn't get done with the DBP analysis in time to post yet, and I gotta run for a couple hours to do some errands before it's too late. I'll be back before EoD and should have enough time to finish my thoughts

so far everything I've felt in re-reading makes me think it really is just DBP/Zenith. I think the third is unlikely to be botchi after all, and is much more likely to be either Xel or Freezin. Would probably lynch xel before freezin

sunfan if you can shit on my "not mechanically forced" post and tell me why Zenith is in fact mechanically forced, I'd appreciate it.

[FreezinIce]

Woke up a little later than I wanted, but oh well

I didn't read sunfans spoiler because I still wanted to do my own thing, but using the power of cOnTeXt ClUeS I can guess what it said based on the discussion around it. I'm still gonna do my analysis of DBP eod d0 that I should've done last phase. I'll see how I feel after that

[Hakulyte]

This EoD really seems to be going toward a Zenith lynch and I'm not even sure if Zenith will come back to do anything. Feels like a lot like the H&H EoD.

Considering the next phase is likely to be lylo, is it really the best option ?

If he flips town, I feel like the game is likely to be too hard to recover.

I feel like I'd rather go elsewhere and hope he gets replaced or something 'cause this could change the momentum of the game.

I feel like he got frustrated with what happened around his game and left. I can't guarantee it was for the right reasons.
Maybe it's just a me thing, but that's a really weird ''match plan'' if you read Zenith as a wolf here.

Messing up about PRs in a game with no PRs should have been a ''haha what are you doing'' moment rather than an unacceptable mistake.

in b4 ''no Haku, he can do that as wolf too''. I hear ya, but damn.

I feel like I'd gain so much more from voting out someone that might be an active wolf. I guess having a Zenith slot in lylo sounds bad as well. :/

[FreezinIce]

I have to say, the site constantly dying and going down is making this process VERY annoying

[XelNya]

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

I have to say, the site constantly dying and going down is making this process VERY annoying

this has been very annoying more than once

[roundbox]

The Votecount
_Zenith_ (2) - the sun fan, bugkid666
botchi246 (1) - DaBackpack

Not voting - Hakulyte, ShadoWolfe, _Zenith_, XelNya, botchi246, FreezinIce

[FreezinIce]

Im finally on a computer

I was originally going to do a Zapruder film style deep dive on DBPs eod but after reading everything I dont think its warranted (Plus i dont think I'm capable of it). Most of his on d0 posts bang on the same drum. This was the start of his push on Ben

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

1) "I am announcing my distaste of Star's post because I'm not convinced by their reasoning."
2) "However, if I'm wrong, they will be helpful for town."
3) "Even if I tried voting for them, nobody else would."

This is textbook distancing. "If Star flips red later, I want plausible deniability. But I actually don't want them dead. I want to have my cake and eat it too."

My perspective is: why do you think there is basically zero traction on getting them voted out now? Is this a reason for you to just give up the lead, because you don't think anyone will follow you? Isn't your job to try to convince people that you're correct? And to MAKE traction?

And then you follow up with a vote on bugkid, someone not here? It feels like just placing a vote down just to have a vote down

Obviously with the benefit of hindsight Ben was just being careful here, possibly feeling overwhelmed. But hindsight isnt important, what's important is if DBP is consistent. Lets move on

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

why does your read on someone depend on the opinion of a third party?

this one in particular is very smelly

DBP continues to dig through Ben's posts, this was one of the few posts he made against Ben that diverged from his usual attack pattern against him, and reads like a genuine find done after some digging.

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

"I think star might be a wolf, but I'm voting for bugkid instead." <---- If a CFD happens on a bug wagon, then Ben can always "safely" vote star instead.

"If bug is town, then H&H is a wolf." <---- If bug is town and flips this phase, Ben has a "safe" vote for tomorrow.

This is clear as day to me. IDK why no one else is noticing these things

This is the second time DBP has hammered this point, at this point I notice and respond to him that logical patterns are very rarely this clear cut, and this is his response.

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

100% people with anxiety about lying will do this thing where they don't want to be pinned down to a specific narrative in cause they get caught lying later. it's a subconscious thing.

I'm not saying this is an engineered strategy. It is literally a reaction to mental and emotional stress.

I accepted it at the time because he seemed locked in on this narrative, but 8 minutes previously when Mello called Ben a paranoid town DBP said this.

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

I know what paranoia looks like. This isn't that, it's strategic maneuvering, IMO

The first clear contradiction I've seen. Referring to the same anxiety/paranoia that Ben had, he calls it two completely different things. In one post he says its emotional and not an engineered strategy, in the other he says its engineered and manipulative. His narrative at this point isnt consistent.

Thats pretty much all thats interesting about DBP eod.

So what did I learn?

I learned I suck at ISOs (5 posts is kinda pathetic). Also specifically I suck at drawing conclusions from them, probably due to a lack of experience with the process. Sure DBP made a clear contradiction in his case against Ben but does that make him wolfy or just misguided town? I think all I can do is post this info and let it marinate and hope to be inspired by other peoples takes on it.

[FreezinIce]

Now time to read sunfans spoiler post and find out why everyone seems resigned to zenith

[FreezinIce]

lmao i was not disappointed with the use of bold letters and size maxed font

[FreezinIce]

45 mins to EOD and the thread is POPPIN

Someone talk to me in real time