TWG Turbo 39: Timing Error [GAME THREAD]

[the sun fan]

I am going to bed
gn I truly hope to have a new avatar waiting for me when I wake up

I want to say this very clearly, too

I think arp's post at EOD was performative, solely because it was made with like a time-stamp of :56, which gives PLENTY of time for potential townspeople to react to it

So WhY nOt KiLl ArP>>
I'm killing Nakah or watching Nakah die this shit is biblical how much I want him to die

[leetic]

Originally Posted by the sun fan

I am going to bed
gn I truly hope to have a new avatar waiting for me when I wake up

I want to say this very clearly, too

I think arp's post at EOD was performative, solely because it was made with like a time-stamp of :56, which gives PLENTY of time for potential townspeople to react to it

So WhY nOt KiLl ArP>>
I'm killing Nakah or watching Nakah die this shit is biblical how much I want him to die

The only person who townread Arp just died in the night. If Arp is wolf, it'd indicate some sort of bussing strategy but even then I'd leave Subaru alive to keep the town divided for an easier D3. roundbox and/or Raeko just make more sense here.

[leetic]

It seems the poison fruit vendor wolf used an action this night, assuming sunfan is telling the truth (for all I know they could be PFVW themselves). That would indicate two wolf actions were used last night. I do believe that using night actions does not preclude a wolf from carrying the kill and I'm not sure on what sight meta is for submitting actions on behalf of inactive partners, so I don't think this means for sure two active wolves. Probably the one thing you can say in favor of a w!Arp world is that they chose to kill rather than idle last night, which could suggest they're in a hurry and at least one of the wolves might be in a vulnerable position. It also suggests they're not worried about a long-term seer threat, or maybe they thought Subaru was seer.

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by the sun fan

Now that death does genuinely surprise me
gj on getting thoroughly townread, hopecaster

I am firmly and immovably voting Nakah until he

a) dies
b) is replaced with star-crossed (or someone else I guess. Botchi?)
c) becomes so townie that my socks literally fly off my body

We should all insta Nakah and then all vote to expediate the fucking night phase because this shit is basically making town waste a phase dealing with him

Like deadass NAKAH

Originally Posted by the sun fan

also I was given a blueberry in the night phase. Idk if the wolves are like
mocking me with this or this is a coincidence, but I am an established blueberry hater

I will probably not dedicate any time to thinking about whether or not the wolves happened to know this or not about me and are taunting me, but it like
feels targeted idk

L Take; Blueberries absolutely rock
Another L Take: I would absolutely try to remember who all could know you hated blueberries (assuming wolves could have picked the fruit and it wasn't like host doing something idk)

Originally Posted by leetic

Not the most unexpected kill,

Arp is alive so I guess this statement is technically true

Originally Posted by leetic

we know wolves didn't delay. So, who would've killed Subaru? Nakah definitely didn't. Would've been a strange choice for sunfan, given their suspicions on Subaru's vote and w!sunfan might have felt it was a viable place to push. Arp seems an easy answer, but Subaru switched to TRing them actually and them killing basically their only defender wouldn't make sense, assuming they saw the post anyway. This kill definitely would make sense in a w!Raeko and/or roundbox world, broadly preserves the status quo and provides an easy push on the two CWs.

I think I can agree with everything here more or less except Nakah because if Nakah doesn't submit a nightkill, traditionally on FFR it is random and I don't know if Nakah is even on the sight rn

Originally Posted by the sun fan

also if someone wants to post a new avatar for me, I am still in the market
rather tired of the current one

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by leetic

Voting Nakah here, assuming they remain inactive, is a terrible idea because if a town player is poisoned here, then if Nakah flips town, wolves would just have to kill another town player to secure parity. The same risk exists for any town flip but it's much better to do it on someone we can actually have reads on and not on a slot machine.

Motherfucker unvote shit

[leetic]

Also, if sunfan has the fruit that means wolves want to leave him alive? Although I suppose that they didn't have too many more options given that anyone who receives the fruit is likely to be read town, sunfan being chosen over MML is probably somewhat worth reading into

[leetic]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

I think I can agree with everything here more or less except Nakah because if Nakah doesn't submit a nightkill, traditionally on FFR it is random and I don't know if Nakah is even on the sight rn

Pretty sure both players have to be inactive for it to be random, so the Subaru kill was a deliberate choice

[MixMasterLar]

Reminder that we could have killed Nakah last phase instead of someone who was actually playing the fucking game and we wouldn't be in this situation where we have a dead slot who could lose us the game whenever they get modkilled

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by leetic

Pretty sure both players have to be inactive for it to be random, so the Subaru kill was a deliberate choice

Fair I don't know why I just assumed there was one wolf lmao

[MixMasterLar]

OK I did not intend to stay up this late because I've been running all day and was dead tired like 3 hours ago so I am goin to bed. Only stayed up to see who was getting killed

When I get back in the morning I will ISO Subaru first

[leetic]

As for Zenith, what can I say? Them flipping town at least clears things up a lot more than Nakah flipping town would've. I myself was pretty surprised how quickly people were willing to jump ship off of Arp, I believe we had five people on that wagon (though not all concurrently). I could say that roundbox's movements both on and off that wagon were very unimpressive but I don't want to get too confbiased here. If Arp truly is wolf then the people who acquiesced to the Arp wagon but quickly jumped to the Zenith wagon (aka roundbox, MML) would be the most suspect (Subaru switched as well but they flipped town)

[leetic]

Originally Posted by roundbox

I never said it was something of significant length, but it does make up the majority of their posts. Those 7 posts I mentioned were consecutive after all the math

Let's move on since arp is here now

unvote Subaru is scaring me with that vote

Okay, roundbox did unvote Arp earlier than I remembered but the Zenith vote still reads as opportunistic and the "Let's move on since arp is here now" seems pretty suspect. It's also after sunfan unvoted, so yeah.

[leetic]

Originally Posted by roundbox

Arp trying to solidify a counter wagon on zenith

Over/under wolfchat idea?
You've got me tinfoiling everywhere now, sunfan

There's this weird post but eh

roundbox's other posts on Zenith are uninspiring, being "willing to vote" them when they were inactive but like their only substantial "read" on them was "nitpicking" them not pushing me harder

[the sun fan]

Originally Posted by leetic

It seems the poison fruit vendor wolf used an action this night, assuming sunfan is telling the truth (for all I know they could be PFVW themselves). That would indicate two wolf actions were used last night. I do believe that using night actions does not preclude a wolf from carrying the kill and I'm not sure on what sight meta is for submitting actions on behalf of inactive partners, so I don't think this means for sure two active wolves. Probably the one thing you can say in favor of a w!Arp world is that they chose to kill rather than idle last night, which could suggest they're in a hurry and at least one of the wolves might be in a vulnerable position. It also suggests they're not worried about a long-term seer threat, or maybe they thought Subaru was seer.

Usually, wolves can perform night actions and the night kill at the same time on ffr. I imagine it would be listed if it wasn't the case here.

Couldn't sleep, am tired but cant sleep

I recognize that a Naka kill plus a village death from vig plus a wolf kill is a loss, I knew that was the case when I voted Naka

Naka just probably has to die

[leetic]

Originally Posted by the sun fan

Usually, wolves can perform night actions and the night kill at the same time on ffr. I imagine it would be listed if it wasn't the case here.

Couldn't sleep, am tired but cant sleep

I recognize that a Naka kill plus a village death from vig plus a wolf kill is a loss, I knew that was the case when I voted Naka

Naka just probably has to die

If we can flip one wolf I'll allow people to consider Nakah. Going into F5 with two active wolves will in most scenarios end disastrously, we need to hit the wolves where it hurts. 'Til then I'm vetoing any attempt to lynch Nakah.

[the sun fan]

Im not doing it on my phone (I hate phone posting) but my self-assigned homework for this phase is to determine how sure I am of my village reads, because there just like
Is a wolf in Naka arp, but there's probably not two
Would be funny if arp were trying to solo carry

Anyways

Thats entirely where the game lies at the moment for me

--‐-------------------

Let's, for a moment, assume the vigi didnt poison (they should have and id be definitely annoyed at the person if they did not)

Let us assume Naka is a villager and makes postcount min today

We are fucked tomorrow

Id rather rip the band aid off now

---------------------

Dont take this as me saying that we have little work to do
Im gonna read a lot and still try to figure out Townsend

‐--------------

A thought that just occurred to me is that a leetic/round team probably just kills me instead of fruits me
Like they probably just take over the game after that and cruise fairly easily

[the sun fan]

Originally Posted by leetic

If we can flip one wolf I'll allow people to consider Nakah. Going into F5 with two active wolves will in most scenarios end disastrously, we need to hit the wolves where it hurts. 'Til then I'm vetoing any attempt to lynch Nakah.

Truly a shame that a veto can be overriden by a majority vote, or even one of them wacky plurality ones

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by leetic

As for Zenith, what can I say? Them flipping town at least clears things up a lot more than Nakah flipping town would've. I myself was pretty surprised how quickly people were willing to jump ship off of Arp, I believe we had five people on that wagon (though not all concurrently). I could say that roundbox's movements both on and off that wagon were very unimpressive but I don't want to get too confbiased here. If Arp truly is wolf then the people who acquiesced to the Arp wagon but quickly jumped to the Zenith wagon (aka roundbox, MML) would be the most suspect (Subaru switched as well but they flipped town)

Looking back, I still feel pretty good that Arp's last post were them giving up as villager and just not trying. I think if they where wolf they would have panicked a lot more.

I was only on Arp because there was just no way enough people would have gone for Nakah and the actual votes were split 5 ways. When Arp made their post I simply went to the then current competitive counterwagon because of the two, I felt better about Arp in the moment

I suppose you could claim I was wishy washy and should have stuck to my guns, AKA a Nakah vote. Don't worry, it won't happen again.

Originally Posted by leetic

If we can flip one wolf I'll allow people to consider Nakah. Going into F5 with two active wolves will in most scenarios end disastrously, we need to hit the wolves where it hurts. 'Til then I'm vetoing any attempt to lynch Nakah.

I am like 99.99999999999% always voting Nakah here this phase and if we got to fight like two year olds about it the whole time then that's probably more indicative that you're his partner then anything.

[MixMasterLar]

Ok so lets start this

Lets go over every single 29 posts Subaru made

Originally Posted by SubaruPoptart

I'm almost positive it's after EoD but I'm panic-readin rn. Been a fuckin rough week so I took a rest day today and haven't been at the computer let alone conscious whatsoever. Super tired but I'm very fuckin frustrated I missed day 1 I didn't think it'd start this soon for some reason. Very sorry

Originally Posted by SubaruPoptart

Been getting heavy into DDR for the past few years, started travelling a lot more cuz of it it's been fantastic. Otherwise been navigating a relatively shit work environment that's gettin smaller and more hostile; learning a lot but it's takin a lot out of me.

I don't think I've ever seen leetic before so hello! You're a very aggressive player and using combinatorics in a TWG game is nuts I've never seen that before I don't think, I'm very lookin forward to this game

Originally Posted by SubaruPoptart

Saw that the day was extended as well goin through, my heart rate can lower now I felt like I was breakin rules

NAI Posts to start us off. Considers Leetic to be an aggressive player which is a cold take straight from the fridge

Originally Posted by SubaruPoptart

The positive reads I can discern from my first go-through:

From what I'm seeing so far I'm kinda riding on sunfan's general gauge of leetic since he's much more familiar with them than I am. Very gung-ho out the gate which is cool but I'm havin a hard time piecing together everything they've said. Ultra wild-card but not much to base on alignment-wise just D0; I don't wanna tunnel the wrong way off of a chaotic opening. Leanin positive if not for any reason other than fatigue and their exchange with Sunfan, will expound below.
Will have to catch up on them.

Feeling really good bout Sunfan similarly cuz of those two's exchanges, both seem to earnestly want to figure out what the other's goin on about. Will have to dissect finer later on but I'm feelin more concrete on my read on sunfan.

Roundbox's vote on me is pretty par for the course; was bang-on with me bein in later on. Not much to gauge fmpov he's doin how he do

Lar's been active but the fatigue's setting in, I'm likin his entrance for sure.

Like was discussed earlier that's prolly all of the active players but whatcha gonna do it's who stuck out to me as I was readin; now that Arp's here as well hopefully when I send this more posts have been made

Going to attempt to read through a second time to dissect everyone else on top of somehow keepin up with current stuff

Positive thoughts on SunFan, neutral thoughts on Roundbox, slants my entrance as positive but clarified later the fatigued meant he thought I already seemed tired of the game, and was hopeful for Arp since they arrived around this time

Originally Posted by SubaruPoptart

I was pickin up on leetic being kinda all over the place but was hoping there was Something to follow maybe that I didn't pick up on. Might be too optimistic about it for my own reads but will definitely keep this in mind. I didn't find their exchange too gross per se, little strange but sunfan felt pretty on-model to me anyway - coy how?

Subaru being wishy washy with the leetic read but considering it's early activity and that I know for 100% he's clean that's probably about right

Originally Posted by SubaruPoptart

I would be flattered, I'm tryna also go gung-ho since I pretty much missed the entirety of the initial EoD since I hadn't been active for ~23 hours prior

Originally Posted by SubaruPoptart

I'll admit I'm pretty tired so I'm not really proofreading my posts as much, I've said it before but I'll try'n approach each game I play in a different way using what I learned to improve and I'm attempting to apply just sayin fuck it and send instead of spendin 50 minutes on each one and missing shit that'd answer any questions I was actively workin on

Could see how I appear different from there but I'm a little confused how this results in a vote I'm operating how I always do fmpov just without as much refinement

Originally Posted by SubaruPoptart

Case in point imo; I'm changin how I'm approachin this game by not worrying about how I'm comin across as hard as I usually do. Clearly not the approach as evidenced by this but idk man that's my answer.

What I mean is I feel like I'm interacting how I usually do as a person but tryna improve on how I show it in what I type. I wanna be a lil more present instead of constantly lost reading back the whole game as stuff keeps happening so I typed a running commentary that I didn't really edit/iterate much as opposed to, like I said, spendin an hour making sure I'm actually reading into the right thing or getting the right info and not just blindly tonereading stuff and tunnelling like I tend to fall into doing.

I'm tryna improve my meta I guess is a better way to put it?? Idrk how else to explain it but it's genuine

Originally Posted by SubaruPoptart

With D0 being what it is, with exception for these past like 3 hours maybe all I got is tonereading so it's hard to really do anything I'd deem sufficient in terms of reads, you and leetic's convo was the only thing I really had anything to immediately analyze til Roundbox and Lar came in to my recollection

This is Subaru's responses to SunFan accusing them of being too confident and then voting them. I...don't know if I agree with SunFan here actually. I suppose in the past they had played very reserved day 1 (read inactive) so SunFan's probably just doing a meta read here if it's even that serious at all.

Subaru does engage with them seriously and gives a good defense of themselves, but since we already know his alignment that doesn't really tell us anything new

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by SubaruPoptart

I'll admit I was really just skimmin the first three pages just to see if there was an EoD extension, was really antsy cuz it felt like I was breakin rules. I apologize if most of what you were contributing were on those first two pages I definitely missed it.




This first set of reads right here is what I liked when you came in.



Saw some similarities in stuff I was noticing going through a lil more thorough prolly page 3 1/2 onwards (will find postcount eventually I'm drowning in tabs) which made me feel even better; I couldn't find anything else with an overall readslist structure I'm gonna be honest I thought there was more but I did also like this after following the tree of quotes



I'd entirely missed the fact all that was based on Nakah as well, saw the combinatorics at first from leetic and went "that's interesting, never seen someone play like this but it's math I'd do I guess".

The sunfan quote also reinforcing why I feel good about him. I'm still kinda curious how their convo was weird fypov

Subaru defends on why they didn't comment on Raeko and uses the excuse they thought they where doing something that's literally modkill worthy instead. He did go on to basically give Raeko no pushback and sheeps her a little. HE then goes on to say that he didn't know all the math talk was about Nakah which proves he just let the numbers graze over his eyeballs.

I mean I did too fuck math but I at least knew what you guys were trying to do

Originally Posted by SubaruPoptart

I do find it pretty towny sunfan later agreeing that The Posts:tm: were also NGR too. I feel the "definitely should've said that earlier" but hoping it ain't no backpedaling

Reaffirms that SunFan feels good

Originally Posted by SubaruPoptart

I'm ngl I thought I had the acronyms down this time I think I was wrong bout both of these

I was runnin with "Not Good Reads" and "Not An Issue"; NAI I think is at least almost equivalent but I may have to reread The Posts:tm: I mentioned in the last half of my wall with this in mind

Originally Posted by SubaruPoptart

y'all wtf happened I'm almost done with my reply to raeko but goddamn

None of these really add anything

Originally Posted by SubaruPoptart

By the time I'd caught up to make what I made last night I was diggin through sunfan and leetic's part of the convo, was only this morning I've been more thoroughly going through the first couple pages. Your summoning vote on leetic was something I entirely missed, didn't realize they weren't even here til around 2 hours before I came in neither. Broken charger's rough though I feel that.



Can also see whatchu mean by this now; I like the initiative of tryna get people get thoughts out on y'all here cuz most of the reason I didn't pay much mind was cuz nobody really did outside of "raeko was active now she's not", which is consistent in your criticisms of me.

Leetic expressing their disdain for voting inactives


and then subsequently threw out the list I put in earlier is kinda interesting.

It's why I can kinda get the response they gave to your "vote" on Zenith but I feel the Summoning Vote as unserious or serious as it may have been was sufficient context to not read too much into it, even with you saying pretty much exactly this. Through all that voting roundbox is definitely interesting but from their point of view makes sense I guess.




This is really the only bit of insight I got from em. I personally hate using meta but have been opening up to taking it into account more. But even then a clear off an offer for a haircut (which by the way I'm very down for if I could get a tiny trim) no matter how well you know em is insufficient for me. This whole exchange is when I really started divin down the leetic/sunfan hole.

Sunfan being the only person on that list who's really interacted with him is of note to me, but with my newfound knowledge NAI yet.

Knowing now that they made the combinatorics PoE literally just before EoD got extended is definitely important context but iterating on it with each bit of sunfan's questioning was confusing to me cuz there's no longer really a timecrunch, there's definitely gonna be some info to come. In my eyes I'm waitin for the info instead of tryna push what looks to be a pretty arbitrary game of probability for no reason. "I've done sufficient reading into the slot" to you yeah but I got no clue what's going on in your brain unfortunately I can barely organize mine

Originally Posted by SubaruPoptart

Was post 81 goddammit I never typed it

Subaru defends not getting the math, throws out general thoughts on Leetic and does not reach a real satisfactory conclusion. Raeko and SunFan will go on to say he is winning them over with all his effort which is certified INTERESTING because it's at this junction that I feel like I'm wasting my fucking time

Leetic might be on to something that this was a safe NK to keep the status quo and not shake the boat, which means at least one wolf is so hidden they are not concerned with doing any real work