TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

[bugkid666]

Originally Posted by leetic

Who's your partner?

More seriously, claiming VT this early seems a bit tryhard? Like it reads like an attempt to gain town points rather than a thought-out move to help town's chances. Basically, LAMIST (though I hate the term)

yeah you're right but i complain about being vanilla town every game so its pretty par for the course unfortunately

[FreezinIce]

Votecount:

Hateandhatred (2): bugkid, mello_collie
bugkid (1): Hakulyte
Arapocalypse (1): MixMasterLar


Not voting: A lot of people

=======

EOD in about 5 hours

(Thanks to leetic for the correction)

[leetic]

Originally Posted by bugkid666

i dont really agree with this sentiment because i'm not sure anyone alluded to the fact that the reverse wagon had to be a wolf one. i think it accomplishes "solving" a wagon in case the other fails which can be helpful if the majority of town does in fact want that person solved. the alternative is the vengeful spirit killing someone that nobody else cared about solving. whether or not its necessary to consolidate to two wagons is up for debate but i can at least see the logic behind why someone might think that to be the best option.


youre missing the entire purpose of vengeful spirit which is that they were sent "vanilla town" and do not know that they are a vengeful spirit until after they are dead. unless you switched to talking about a different PR and i didnt notice?

see guys i can write vanilla town correctly i promise

I suppose it is true that t/t wagons would probably lead to a bad scenario, even if it's a bit convoluted as it'd need to be exactly the Vengeful that gets lynched. But even then, the CW to a flipped town is basically a guaranteed vig target anyway. Thus, the only way to truly avoid it is simply to not suck at wolfhunting.

[leetic]

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

Votecount:

Hateandhatred (2): bugkid, mello_collie
Bugkid (1): Hakulyte

Not voting: A lot of people

=======

EOD in about 5 hours

I believe MML is also voting for Ara (post 69 hehe), unless he retracted it and I missed it?

[Hakulyte]

Originally Posted by bugkid666

yeah you're right but i complain about being vanilla town every game so its pretty par for the course unfortunately

That's true, it's just that there's no reason for you to not post the exact same thing as wolf.

[bugkid666]

fwiw i'll be leaving my vote on hateandhatred for now at least. a lot of things in the wall post rubbed me the wrong way and i'm trying to decide if it's because it seems performative or if i just disagree with him

[bugkid666]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

That's true, it's just that there's no reason for you to not post the exact same thing as wolf.

thats true!

[MixMasterLar]

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

Votecount:

Hateandhatred (2): bugkid, mello_collie
Bugkid (1): Hakulyte

Not voting: A lot of people

=======

EOD in about 5 hours

Was my vote for Ara missed or ineligible for some reason?

Ara if that makes it easier

[Hateandhatred]

Originally Posted by leetic

Can you elaborate more on the Haku read? I don't think any of their posts are really that difficult to come up with from a wolf perspective. That being said, I understand with my limited experience with them that they tend to come off as wolfy by default.

Haku is Haku, different rules apply

Originally Posted by leetic

A N3 shot would require consistently low rolls. I won't do the exact calculation but I believe it would be about a 1/8 chance of succeeding (again assuming no Soul Stealer interference). Although a Devil shot may be the only way of winning for town if it goes to F3 at night, though wolves would still be favored to win the roll and I'm not sure if that is a likely position in the first place.

I "did" the math and I got 31.25% of a N3 shot going off without any soul stealer shenanigans. So more 1/3 than 1/8.

There are 4^3 different combos possible. That means 64 outcomes.
Of these outcomes, there are 20 different outcomes that guarantee a total of 6 or lower.

Sum = 3: (1,1,1): 1 way
Sum = 4: (1,1,2), (1,2,1), (2,1,1): 3 ways
Sum = 5: (1,1,3), (1,3,1), (3,1,1), (1,2,2), (2,1,2), (2,2,1): 6 ways
Sum = 6: (1,1,4), (1,4,1), (4,1,1), (1,2,3), (1,3,2), (2,1,3), (2,3,1), (3,1,2), (3,2,1), (2,2,2): 10 ways

so that's 20/64, or 5/16, which is 31.25%

I put did between quotation marks because I actually just asked ChatGPT get rekt

Originally Posted by leetic

Basically, the PoE is the number of safe mislynches/vig shots plus the number of wolves. If we have both the wolves in the PoE and shoot exclusively within it, then we win the game. The high amount of town kill power allows for a generous PoE for a game (5 in most scenarios, though four if we want to be super safe)

Well I guess this post (and the one it was responding to) answers my question. Will reread with this in mind, though I don't think it changes anything.

Originally Posted by roundbox

thread I am coming down with a fever and it's really lame

Get well soon =)

I'm gonna take a moment to let y'all know that I'm doing great, as to put more positive real life stuff out there. Those of you who know me know that it's been rough for a long time, but I feel great now!

Originally Posted by roundbox

aside from shitposting, there isn't much else to discuss since we have no flips, so I mean, it makes sense

People making basically personality reads in d0, I find to be very difficult to engage with

Originally Posted by leetic

Who's your partner?

More seriously, claiming VT this early seems a bit tryhard? Like it reads like an attempt to gain town points rather than a thought-out move to help town's chances. Basically, LAMIST (though I hate the term)

Out of curiosity, how viable is claiming VT? for real?

Also where the fuck is Weiss

[bugkid666]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

That's true, it's just that there's no reason for you to not post the exact same thing as wolf.

that being said i didnt say it to specifically gain town cred i mostly said it to complain, its your choice if you believe that or not but it is the truth. (and yes i know i could also say this exact same thing as wolf)

i'm not going to earnestly defend the slip because there's no real defense for it, it was just a stupid slip. if it bothers you and you vote for me, thats honestly understandable. all i can do is prove to you that i am town through what i say and how i vote

[Hakulyte]

@bugkid666

For clarity, I'm voting you because you went "lmfao vanilla wolf" / "because stupid" instead of trying to explain your headspace. If I cannot explain more in details why that happened, it becomes difficult for me to look past it.

[MixMasterLar]

Last post for awhile but I am really tempted to just vote Weiss and call it a phase

I think I am ok if we vote Bug.

I will leave my vote on Ara for the moment unless they start to make waves. I just couldn't read it as a good faith town on the reread and I feel it's worth digging into

[bugkid666]

Originally Posted by Hateandhatred

Out of curiosity, how viable is claiming VT? for real?

i appreciate this comment tbh

it's my assumption that every player is by default claiming vt at all times, which is why i did not find it that odd to say. (if i had, yknow, spelled town "town" and not "wolf")

[leetic]

Originally Posted by Hateandhatred

Haku is Haku, different rules apply



I "did" the math and I got 31.25% of a N3 shot going off without any soul stealer shenanigans. So more 1/3 than 1/8.

There are 4^3 different combos possible. That means 64 outcomes.
Of these outcomes, there are 20 different outcomes that guarantee a total of 6 or lower.

Sum = 3: (1,1,1): 1 way
Sum = 4: (1,1,2), (1,2,1), (2,1,1): 3 ways
Sum = 5: (1,1,3), (1,3,1), (3,1,1), (1,2,2), (2,1,2), (2,2,1): 6 ways
Sum = 6: (1,1,4), (1,4,1), (4,1,1), (1,2,3), (1,3,2), (2,1,3), (2,3,1), (3,1,2), (3,2,1), (2,2,2): 10 ways

so that's 20/64, or 5/16, which is 31.25%

I put did between quotation marks because I actually just asked ChatGPT get rekt



Well I guess this post (and the one it was responding to) answers my question. Will reread with this in mind, though I don't think it changes anything.



Get well soon =)

I'm gonna take a moment to let y'all know that I'm doing great, as to put more positive real life stuff out there. Those of you who know me know that it's been rough for a long time, but I feel great now!



People making basically personality reads in d0, I find to be very difficult to engage with



Out of curiosity, how viable is claiming VT? for real?

Also where the fuck is Weiss

You do know you can respond to posts individually without making a wallpost. There's no reason for wolves to claim anything other than VT here as counterclaiming the Freikugel is obviously moronic and counterclaiming Soul Stealer is at best an act of desperation

[leetic]

Also, this Weiss talk is nothing but a distraction. Hell, players are going to be modkilled for inactivity; there's no reason to waste our limited resources on them. Plus, watch them be a PR.

[bugkid666]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

@bugkid666

For clarity, I'm voting you because you went "lmfao vanilla wolf" / "because stupid" instead of trying to explain your headspace. If I cannot explain more in details why that happened, it becomes difficult for me to look past it.

i'm sorry but this is pretty dumb logic to me. what is there to explain? i was thinking of several things to say at once and typed wolf instead of town. it's literally the most unfortunate typo, but there's nothing else to that.

i don't think its a bad thing to vote me because of that, despite it being a mistake, because realistically there's no way for any of you to know whether it was or wasn't. but to say the reason is because i didn't explain it is perplexing to me.

if i told you i was immensely stressed while typing would it genuinely change your mind? i wasn't, i just made a typo. that's really all there is to it

[bugkid666]

perhaps its anti-town to say so but if i die, i die. you'll all be wrong unfortunately but that's also what a wolf would say. i do understand the need to solve me after that typo, so no hard feelings. i 'm just not really sure how i'm supposed to defend what was an accident. sometimes brain no work!

i would like to think wolf me would be a little smarter about rereading their posts before posting them. town me just wanted to go back to sleep tho sorry

[Hakulyte]

Originally Posted by Hateandhatred

Haku is Haku, different rules apply

You're kind of in my vote pile because I've seen wolves do this in games to reduce aggro from me.

MML did it too, but the rest of his post imo is too helpful to town if it's done by a wolf. In you case, it's a lot less clear.

[Hateandhatred]

God dammit y'all are fast

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

Blues should definitely make their own choices but I think it would be better if they fired as hard and fast as possible, and I feel it's fair to share that. I said elsewhere in here but will repeat though that I am not interested in town trying to micromanage the targets

I'm on board with this

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

Inactives being wolves was absolutely true for a good stretch of the time post-covid. If one of the GOATed players rolled wolf (we're talking Charu, Sun, Round, etc) they could keep the count up but their partners would absolutely be in the bottom three posters. I think at one point we had three games in a row that had town policy-voted lowest posted they would have won and after that happened I never left the "Lynch Inactives First" mentality. I should definitely find time to go back over the game history and do math sometimes (I likely won't)

Plus, even if they are town, inactives almost always stay alive for F5 and F3 and become free CFD fodder for wolves, so really not an upside to keeping them around.

Aight thanks a bunch for your thoughts on this. I wonder if Sunfan's stats include postcounts, I barely looked into it and I don't even know where to find it

Originally Posted by bugkid666

i dont really agree with this sentiment because i'm not sure anyone alluded to the fact that the reverse wagon had to be a wolf one. i think it accomplishes "solving" a wagon in case the other fails which can be helpful if the majority of town does in fact want that person solved. the alternative is the vengeful spirit killing someone that nobody else cared about solving. whether or not its necessary to consolidate to two wagons is up for debate but i can at least see the logic behind why someone might think that to be the best option.

youre missing the entire purpose of vengeful spirit which is that they were sent "vanilla town" and do not know that they are a vengeful spirit until after they are dead. unless you switched to talking about a different PR and i didnt notice?

see guys i can write vanilla town correctly i promise

Welp I overlooked the fact that the PR would not know they have the power. That effectively changes my entire reasoning because we can never have a 3 to 2 ratio, or whatever. I feel really dumb right now

Originally Posted by leetic

You do know you can respond to posts individually without making a wallpost. There's no reason for wolves to claim anything other than VT here as counterclaiming the Freikugel is obviously moronic and counterclaiming Soul Stealer is at best an act of desperation

It's a turbo so I was just curious about the possibility of claiming PR. But that's off the table considering that the PR balance is not what I initially thought.

What's wrong with wallposts?

[leetic]

Originally Posted by bugkid666

perhaps its anti-town to say so but if i die, i die. you'll all be wrong unfortunately but that's also what a wolf would say. i do understand the need to solve me after that typo, so no hard feelings. i 'm just not really sure how i'm supposed to defend what was an accident. sometimes brain no work!

i would like to think wolf me would be a little smarter about rereading their posts before posting them. town me just wanted to go back to sleep tho sorry

Lame. He's calling you out for your lack of engagement with the thread, something this post (and the previous one) fails to address. Surely you'd have some alignment related thoughts right now? Do you think Haku and raeko's pushes come from a genuine place?