TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

[FreezinIce]

TWG Turbo: Der Freischütz

9 Players
Open Setup

===============================

The theme of this game is "Vengeance." Town roles have a dangerous ability to accelerate the game for better or worse, which requires thoughtful and careful use if town wants to win.

Wolf roles are mostly suppressive and defensive in nature.

The game has the potential to be extremely volatile and end quickly.

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24 hour days/24 hour nights: Days start at 11PM Server time and end at 11pm Server time the next day.
Phantoms OFF
Cardflips ON [Full Role Flip]
KitB ON
Insta ON
Nighttalk OFF
OoTC OFF
Wolfchat is ON ALL THE TIME
No-lynch is OFF
Wolves must kill every night, failure to do so randomizes the kill. All other night actions are not randomized.

ATTENTION: 3 Post minimum per phase, failure to meet this post count risks modkill by the host


====

Town Roles:

1 Freikugel:

During the Night, the Freikugel can either send a strongman vigilante kill (goes through any vest), a ninja vigilante kill (untrackable) or a smart vigilante kill (cannot be stopped by a roleblock).

Any time the Freikugel uses this power, the host will generate a random number between 1 and 4 and add it to the "bullet count." The bullet count starts at 0. The number of bullets added this way is known to the Freikugel via the host. Once it reaches 7, the action that caused the bullet count to reach 7 is canceled, and instead a "Devils shot" will be executed, causing a random party to control the shot. All surviving players are secretly assigned a number, and a random number is generated between all parties involved.

> If the random number hits a wolf player, the shot will now kill a random town player (including the Freikugel)

> If the random number hits a town player, the shot will kill a random player among all living players. (including the Freikugel)

This shot cannot be tracked and roleblocking the Freikugel will not prevent it. A vest will protect the target from the Devil's shot however. The Freikugel does not know the final target of the shot before it happens. A target killed by this shot will have special flavor text included when the next day starts ("X was killed by the 7th bullet"). If nobody is killed by the "Devils shot", then a special message will be posted at day start. (An ominous shot rings out, but everyone is unharmed).

Once this happens (Assuming the Freikugel is still alive) the bullet count is reset back to 0 and kills can be made the next night onward as normal, until the bullet count reaches 7 again.

NOTE: The Soul Stealer town role can affect the number of bullets gained! If the Soul Stealer caused the bullet count to reach 7, then the Freikugel "Devils shot" is forcibly activated. If this happens during the day phase, it will activate the following night.


1 Soul Stealer

During the day, at any time from the start of the day until exactly an hour is left in the phase, the Soul Stealer can PM the host via FFR or Discord and make a "request". Once they do this, their vote will count for double during that day and any kitb in which they are a part of during that day will automatically end in their favor, killing the other participant. (In a 3-way kitb or more, the Soul Stealer will be excluded and the host will secretly roll between the players left).

Any time this power is used, a bullet will be secretly added to the Freikugel's "Bullet count."
These secret bullets will not be made known to the Freikugel until the "Devils shot" is activated.

1 Vengeful Spirit:

The Vengeful Spirit receives no special role message. They instead receive a standard Vanilla Town role PM. When the Vengeful Spirit is killed during the day by vote, the person they were voting for is also killed. If they were not voting for anyone upon death, then a random town player is killed instead.

When the "Devils shot" is executed, after the special message is posted in the thread the next day start, a role PM is also sent to the Vengeful Spirit, informing them of their role and abilities.

4 Vanilla town

===

Wolf roles:

1 Protective JOAT

Has access to 3 abilities. Only 1 ability can be used per night.

One shot Vest Gifter (Gives the player of their choosing a one shot bulletproof vest for the rest of the game. The target is not informed that they received a vest.)

One shot Roleblock (completely cancels the abilities and effects of a role for the current night and the next day phase. The target is not told they are roleblocked, simply nothing will happen when they attempt to use their role.)

One shot Color Seer (Returns role color of the target. Vengeful Spirit is considered blue even though they are unaware of their role).


1 Trained Tracker

Each night, the Trained Tracker can select 2 players. If either of them executes a night action, the Trained Tracker will be informed by the host that an action was executed.

====

Player List

1. mellonxcollie
2. Hateandhatred
3. leetic
4. Bugkid
5. Weiss thesunfan
6. Hakulyte
7. Roundbox
8. Arapocalypse
9. MixMasterLar

Replacements:

1. thesunfan
2. star-crossed
3.

Despite the game starting, I am still looking for replacements, send me a PM if you are interested!

[FreezinIce]

DO NOT POST YET

It is now Twilight.

I am now sending out role information, setting up pregame functions and doing some final checks.

If you have signed up for the game and have not received a role PM, please PM me!

Twilight is not an actual phase of the game, it is the pregame. The game has not officially started yet

When Twilight ends, the game will have a day start.

Twilight ends on 2/21/25, at 11PM server time.

[FreezinIce]

You may now post.

Day 0 has started.

The day will end in 24 hours. (2/22 at 11pm server time)

[leetic]

Finally it begins

[leetic]

Doing the calculations, assuming no interference from the Soul Stealer the Freikugel has an 81.25% chance of getting two shots off uninterupted. If the first roll is a one or a two, it's completely safe in fact. Since town KP is so high it's probably good to aggressively nail down the PoE quickly.

[Hateandhatred]

wow hi

[leetic]

Where is everybody? I'll be damned if I'm the only one to have stayed up this late

[leetic]

And ninja'd

[leetic]

Originally Posted by Hateandhatred

wow hi

What are your thoughts on my strategy?

[leetic]

This is still too quiet

[Hateandhatred]

Originally Posted by leetic

Doing the calculations, assuming no interference from the Soul Stealer the Freikugel has an 81.25% chance of getting two shots off uninterupted. If the first roll is a one or a two, it's completely safe in fact. Since town KP is so high it's probably good to aggressively nail down the PoE quickly.

no

Originally Posted by leetic

Where is everybody? I'll be damned if I'm the only one to have stayed up this late

yes

jk I got up omega early so I'm just gonna come back in this thread early in the morning before I dedicate a single braincell. I literally just came to say hi

let's go first twg in like sixty thousand years vbulletin not dead yet

[leetic]

Originally Posted by Hateandhatred

no



yes

jk I got up omega early so I'm just gonna come back in this thread early in the morning before I dedicate a single braincell. I literally just came to say hi

let's go first twg in like sixty thousand years vbulletin not dead yet

Come on, if you stayed up that late for this game you can give me something

And it looks like I'm alone again

[Arapocalypse]

Mafia hype!!!! A few familiar faces, very hyped and looking forward to playing with you all!!!!!!

Some initial setup thoughts:

Regarding the Vengeful Spirit, I think the obvious thing here is for the top two wagons to always be voting each other at the end of the day; it would ensure a possible Vengeful Spirit shot is always used, and also help clear up the wagons if so!!

Soul Stealer... not going to lie, the first idea that occurred to me was just having everyone to vote themselves to do a mass-tie on day 1; amusing yes, but probably a bit of a waste of the role!!! Realistically speaking, I'd be in favour of trying to save intentional Soul Stealer plays for a bit later in the game; it'd be more effective with a higher mafia ratio, just not too late or the role could die!!!

[Arapocalypse]

Originally Posted by leetic

Doing the calculations, assuming no interference from the Soul Stealer the Freikugel has an 81.25% chance of getting two shots off uninterupted. If the first roll is a one or a two, it's completely safe in fact. Since town KP is so high it's probably good to aggressively nail down the PoE quickly.

Hey leetic!!!


From what I can figure that does seem correct, though the way I got there was not particularly elegant! I'm curious as to what were the calculations you made to get to 81.25%?



With those odds in mind, it seems optimal for us to avoid doing any Soul Stealer shenanigans for the first 2 days!!!!


Considering this further, unless extra saves/night 2 Devil's shot/whatnot happens then it's very possible that the Freikugel would not want to activate night 3 at all!! In the event that no extra kills happen/no kills are saved, 1 mafia would be dead and there would be 4 alive (3 town/1 mafia) going into the night; we don't want to rand a kill among all players, at that point!!!



(Yes it's fully possible that we get an extra kill/save a kill somewhere along the way, this is just for a hypothetical standard night 3!!!!!)

[Arapocalypse]

Originally Posted by Hateandhatred

no



yes

jk I got up omega early so I'm just gonna come back in this thread early in the morning before I dedicate a single braincell. I literally just came to say hi

let's go first twg in like sixty thousand years vbulletin not dead yet

Hi there!!!! Gooooooood morning, for when you're up!!!!!

[Arapocalypse]

So my post sort of got eaten; before I forget, just noting down that I forgot to factor in the Fruikugel kills themselves and we could just hit F3 on day 3, meaning Soul Stealer unfortunately probably shouldn't activate at all!!!

Unless they reach F3... probably some way to arrange that, to optimize it!!

[leetic]

Originally Posted by Arapocalypse

Hey leetic!!!


From what I can figure that does seem correct, though the way I got there was not particularly elegant! I'm curious as to what were the calculations you made to get to 81.25%?



With those odds in mind, it seems optimal for us to avoid doing any Soul Stealer shenanigans for the first 2 days!!!!


Considering this further, unless extra saves/night 2 Devil's shot/whatnot happens then it's very possible that the Freikugel would not want to activate night 3 at all!! In the event that no extra kills happen/no kills are saved, 1 mafia would be dead and there would be 4 alive (3 town/1 mafia) going into the night; we don't want to rand a kill among all players, at that point!!!



(Yes it's fully possible that we get an extra kill/save a kill somewhere along the way, this is just for a hypothetical standard night 3!!!!!)

There are four equally likely outcomes of the first shot. If the first shot is a one or two, the second is guaranteed to go through. If it's a three, then it's a 3/4 chance and a 1/2 chance if it's a four. 1/4 + 1/4 + (3/4)1/4+(1/2)(1/4)=13/16=.8125 times 100 is 81.25.

The thing we may want to discuss is whether it would be beneficial for the Freikugel to announce their result. On the one hand, a one or a two would give us much more freedom in how we can use the Soul Stealer. On the other, town has no protective roles so it would mean that wolves get a free shot on them, but on the other other hand Freikugel isn't going to get a third shot and the chances of the game even getting to that point are not super high to begin with. The main advantage of keeping them hidden would be hopefully having them alive at -yLo to hopefully make it easier

[leetic]

Originally Posted by Arapocalypse

So my post sort of got eaten; before I forget, just noting down that I forgot to factor in the Fruikugel kills themselves and we could just hit F3 on day 3, meaning Soul Stealer unfortunately probably shouldn't activate at all!!!

Unless they reach F3... probably some way to arrange that, to optimize it!!

They still would have to be careful at F3, as if a Devil shot goes off at that point it's a 2/3 shot of wolves winning then and there. We should only use it if we're certain what number the counter is at.

[Hakulyte]

Hello y'all,

I'm having a debate with myself right now about if you guys are my best allies or just rolled wolf to stir conversation about blue roles. (I'm talking about either leetic or arapocalypse, but it's never too late to be more sus.)

I can see the enthusiast about looking into how much the game can brute force itself, but it's also one of the easier things to say.

2 wagons is probably the ideal world for whoever has to revisit posts during the night and take decisions.
I surprisingly don't like everyone self-voting here even with the role because wolves don't have to take risks with the votes and it's a lot more difficult to read into.
Not to mention, you have like 66,66% chance to vote someone town (not counting yourself) on the first day.

I usually vote based on behavior or if you're too difficult to read.
So yeah, if you guys can be as transparent as possible with intentions behind plays that'd be great.
That's more important to me than the math being done right.

This phase, I'd be looking at like-minded thoughts and try to vote into a pool that is making the least sense to me.
The good news is that we're the weekend and I should be around a lot. I'm sure I will run into misunderstandings soon enough because I don't have the best reading comprehension. \o

That being said, I understand that it's difficult to talk about behavior when almost no one else posted so, yeah.

[Arapocalypse]

Originally Posted by leetic

There are four equally likely outcomes of the first shot. If the first shot is a one or two, the second is guaranteed to go through. If it's a three, then it's a 3/4 chance and a 1/2 chance if it's a four. 1/4 + 1/4 + (3/4)1/4+(1/2)(1/4)=13/16=.8125 times 100 is 81.25.

The thing we may want to discuss is whether it would be beneficial for the Freikugel to announce their result. On the one hand, a one or a two would give us much more freedom in how we can use the Soul Stealer. On the other, town has no protective roles so it would mean that wolves get a free shot on them, but on the other other hand Freikugel isn't going to get a third shot and the chances of the game even getting to that point are not super high to begin with. The main advantage of keeping them hidden would be hopefully having them alive at -yLo to hopefully make it easier

Yeah okay, that's pretty close to how I did it anyways!!!


Hmm... Freikugel announcing their result is certainly an interesting concept!! That being said, the other advantage of keeping them hidden is that mafia can't just straight up roleblock them; getting the shot off would also be important, even if they die that night!!!


It seems like the issue is ideally the Soul Stealer would not want to be activated at all? They don't want to activate day 2 because the Freikugel would want to get a non-Devil night 2 shot off, and then day 3 it's even more likely they hit the Devil's Shot, unless the Freikugel has claimed!! Both Soul Stealer/Freikugel being alive on day 3 would probably change the situation significantly enough that it would be difficult to anticipate anyway, though!!!



I think if the Freikugel were to claim it would have to be on day 3, if they manage to live that long; you're right in that they likely just holster starting night 3 anyway!!