TWG 193: Animal Crossing [Game Thread]

[TWG Rolf]

Originally Posted by TWG Merengue

how do you feel about Agent S? sorry if you have to repeat yourslef

Don't like them still, didn't like either them or maple last eod but switched to maple because of the overall points of them unnecessarily outing our last pr, refusing to answer prods about what info would be gotten from lynching me when noted I'd be a good lynch no matter what role I was, their vote not matching their priority list for what lynch what give 'most info', and generally being all over the place.

Agent S has been on me the whole game since I defended Julian's case on Del who ended up outing himself as a PR. His latch onto Julian for that is some pretty surface-level basic attempt at scumhunting, and he continued to throw shade at them without building any cases or pushing until Julian ended up claiming themselves. He'd constantly bring them up as a test to see if they could get people to also vote them and then when nobody seemed to bite he'd drop it, and this would repeat a lot. He later started to town-read me after he iso'd me, but the timing of it seemed too convenient, similar to Fauna. Seemed like it was only done to complacent me since I haven't been townreading them since his early latch onto Julian.

[TWG Flurry]

I feel like this is going to be another Maple scenario tbh.

[TWG Merengue]

Originally Posted by TWG Phil

It feels like we're just biding our time today

I'll give a singular hot take, I guess
I think Apollo looks kind of bad for not voting for Agent S, specifically for saying "Agent S tomorrow" when he could've killed Agent S instead of Maple

I know he's explained it and w/e I think it looks bad regardless

I noticed this too, but I can see it from a town perspective of not wanting shit to fall apart in a CFD, which makes tomorrow (today) messy from a wagonomics perspective

that said this is conditional on Apollo actually being willing to lynch Agent S today.

to which I ask--- what are the fucking votes right now

[TWG Merengue]

Originally Posted by TWG Flurry

I wonder if we can take advantage of wolves or take advantage of the acquisitioner to get some sort of edge, but I don't really understand how that could happen.

At the very least, this sounds like a good topic to see how others feel me thinks. I can echo on that.

My initial thought was that Phil was suspicious for saying he would lay low and request the Acquisitioner to take their slot.

It made me feel like the Acquisitioner could be them. Unfortunately, this sounds very surface level.

Next page, I get to see Apollo go in a similar direction and I feel like many players are coming to the conclusion that this is something they want to tackle in some way.

Agent S' posts doesn't really lean me one way or another.

Nothing too conclusive right now.

Going through Punchy's longposts and just... pointing things out, I guess.

The Agent S null-read really doesn't make sense to me here. why stick it in the middle of this post of all things

---unless there is some context linking Agent S to acquisitioner hunting?

[TWG Flurry]

I'm going to vote Agent S over the reaction overall to being called out about the "bus" thing.

I feel like you had no valid reason to word things that way.

I understand why someone could say that they got bussed as town knowing that bus implies that it's a wolf terminology, but I don't see it here.

[TWG Fauna]

I think I need to vote agent s

I have to leave in 5 minutes

[TWG Flurry]

Originally Posted by TWG Merengue

Going through Punchy's longposts and just... pointing things out, I guess.

The Agent S null-read really doesn't make sense to me here. why stick it in the middle of this post of all things

---unless there is some context linking Agent S to acquisitioner hunting?

I was probably just reading the posts as a serie of events here rather than it being linked to acquisitioner.

I don't remember clearly.

[TWG Fauna]

I think we’re only on 3 or 4 for agent but don’t insta

This EoD feels very important

[TWG Merengue]

APOLLO
I’m sure nobody forgot Apollo’s random outburst at the beginning of thinking Agent S is the acquisitioner and quoting themselves asking people to get on board as a theory. Apollo later backtracked this, calling it a joke. Most of Apollo’s other posts were weak, contentless (they forgot the day was EOD), and just not really worth looking into. A lackluster D0.

This does actually fall pretty perfectly in line with Apollo's not voting Agent S last EoD. The D0 behavior could be some attempt at distancing, REGARDLESS of whether or not Agent S gained traction. "Haha this guy is an acquisitioner!! Let's lynch him!!" is potentially solid distancing no matter who flips what.

[TWG Julian]

AGENT S
+this post sounds legit in terms of tone and emotion:

Originally Posted by TWG Agent S

god damn. Not popular enough for an iso in the previous section but popular enough for the scumread. Well, I appreciate the digging that you had to do for the reads. While I'd argue that you are correct in there being a level of fatigue associated with my posting, it's because a lot of peoples read lists are looking rather the same. There just isn't very much to converse about when everyone is agreeing with one another, and that kind of shines throughout the thread. People are willing to scumread me, but aren't willing to discuss anything that I do post. And if they do get discussed, it's usually like 1-2 posts before it gets dropped. Sorry for being basic, I guess.

-phil says we shouldn't buy into slip theory, but when it becomes a pattern i become concerned. here's the first:

Originally Posted by TWG Agent S

I'm subtly opposed to the idea of Zucker/Chief being a w/w scenario, as tunneling early game like that doesn't usually happen. But, I am open to the concept of it being a possibility, if that's the angle you're aiming on.

Originally Posted by TWG Agent S

subtly in favor*

pray it doesn't get misquoted.

Originally Posted by TWG Agent S

I get backpaged

ofc Imma' get misquoted lmao.

Originally Posted by TWG Agent S

I am bad at english.

Originally Posted by TWG Agent S

subtly opposed**

Squirrel with a brain the size of a walnut

don't really see the need for panic there even if "subtly opposed" and "subtly in favor" were swapped. forget who said it earlier but wolves tend to think they and their partners are being more obvious than they actually are. maybe this is a case of that? the slip here would be saying he's subtly opposed because he KNOWS chief's gonna flip town when he meant to lie and say in favor

and here's the second:

Originally Posted by TWG Agent S

Although, I still 100% think that wolves are attempting to bus me, and town's set on Maple because of the fakeclaim.

but this one only counts as a slip if the people pushing on him there turn out to be teammates. otherwise it's nothing
-never really reacted to my hardclaim and him being wrong about it...feel like someone with WIM or who was at least dedicated to the read would be like apollo on boomer or me on del...strikes me as them sweeping the whole thing under the rug a bit

OVERALL: leaning wolf
too much sketchy stuff to ignore between the bussing comment (bussing has been discussed and brought up many times this game, and at least a few of them wouldn't have made sense if he understood it with the definition he provided)


APOLLO
+coming out the gate with his acquisitioner read on agent s and quoting himself and not getting defensive when others call him out or cast shade in his direction is a townie thing to me
+pushing on boomer to make sure his claim is legit is a solid move; like me being hesitant to give up my read on del, i think apollo felt the same way about his scumread on boomer; and if boomer turned out to be the acqui or vested wolf then fakeclaiming vigi there would be a smart move, otherwise they'd end up in dora's situation, so i can see why apollo didn't take the claim at face value
+thought dora was the acqui over a vested wolf, think a wolf would be more inclined to pretend dora's the vested wolf for easy townie points
+sketched out by momentum on molly wagon like agent s and i both were
+noticed that phil held back on voting for chrissy despite scumreading her because she was gonna be replaced or modkilled, and said phil will look bad if cole flips wolf: solid insight
+noticed flurry and fauna both thought the wolves NK'd molly and pointed it out
-why take issue with an obvious soft?

Originally Posted by TWG Apollo

This puts a really bad taste in my mouth

OVERALL: town
mindmeld on stuff, independent thought processes, contributes and tries to solve via reactions and being present/in the moment



CHERRY
+agrees with me early on that flurry is wishy washy
+hops on flurry after dora did for suggesting we be pro-inactive (flurry's argument: if we always lynch whoever has the lowest post count, wolves just have to make sure they aren't the lowest posters)
+said if chief/molly/mathilda are town she'd look at chrissy, then she does and ends up scumreading them

-thinks my del case doesn't make sense? it totally did

Originally Posted by TWG Cherry

you tunneled the ever living fuck out of them in a way that doesn't make a whole lot of sense on a re-read what what

-this interaction, pushing a narrative:

Originally Posted by TWG Cherry

also since julian is so insistent on dora's wagonpost i'd like to remind people that the read on julian was very low confidence what what



so don't take it as gospel or anything

Originally Posted by TWG Julian

so insistent? i brought it up once

Originally Posted by TWG Cherry

and it was clear that you were going to point at it more than just once to try to defend yourself what what

Originally Posted by TWG Julian

bullshit it was clear!

Originally Posted by TWG Cherry

someone's getting a bit riled up what what

-why point out my obvious softing?

Originally Posted by TWG Cherry

speaking of julian, they are awfully concerned about being shot despite only garnering 3 recommendations what what

-no follow up on this even though molly and chief flipped town:

Originally Posted by TWG Apollo

Hot take: the wolf team is Eugene, flurry, and rolf

Originally Posted by TWG Cherry

if both molly and chief flip town i could start to believe this take what what

right now i think eugene is towny enough that he's super far down my list of suspects

-randomly pops in to hard-defend chrissy when she becomes a subject/potential wagon for the day:

Originally Posted by TWG Cherry

Chrissy is probably my top null read what what

I can't figure out if she's actually super inexperienced and clueless or pretending she is and I'm not about to spend the energy on that pile of wifom

wouldn't be sad to see her go but there's bigger fish to fry

OVERALL: leaning town
god, i swear i thought she was a wolf and my gut still says she is but after going over all of my notes it doesn't seem like it. maybe she was right and it just bugged me how she would ping me out and i'd answer and she wouldn't respond, lol



DOTTYxCHRISSYxCOLE
+cole seems to believe in what they say and are reasonably logical (convinced me on maple being wolf over phil saying a wolf wouldn't be that cavalier)
-dotty pure inactive, happened last game with subarupoptart (1 post before replacing out)
-chrissy all over the place, didn't get much going, and phil says that's that person's wolf meta
-TMI? "if julian somehow gets host cleared then who do you vote for" makes me wonder if wolves believed in my soft (and if that's the case, did they not pick up on flurry's? or is flurry/cole a thing?)
-pretty sure molly blocked chrissy, which would explain at least one of boomer's shot going through and the nk not going through

OVERALL: wolf
seems obvious



FAUNA
+maple townread is consistent across phases, not opportunistic by switching when the heat was on
+reaction to maple and i's showdown looks decent
-phil votes an inactive, fauna follows with another, chief points out phil is a leader and fauna is a follower
-d1: tank puts pressure on boomer, fauna puts pressure on boomer, phil votes for boomer, flurry adds suspicions to boomer, i add suspicions to boomer, yet later on says i'm the one who outed 2 PRs?
-"Cherry and Phil are currently the most townread people in the game. I townread them myself so I don't want to be hypocritical here, but has any pressure been put on any of these people at any point? If not, I think these should be the people we look at it we're a few day phases from now and don't seem to be getting anywhere." happened with phil but not cherry
-left out flurry on this post about figuring out who molly blocked, and also only posted one vague thing about chrissy and left out molly's more substantial post about chrissy that i brought up a few pages back, and eventually goes with....EUGENE?! who molly said several points she cooled off on?!...covering for chrissy knowing it looks bad for her?

Originally Posted by TWG Fauna

Alrighty, I've gone and read Molly and I'm gonna try cover every single instance of Molly being suspicious of someone.

Phil


Early phases. Hasn't mentioned thoughts on Phil any time recently.

Agent S

This was in response to Agent S stating he thinks its likely the wolves attacked Del night 1. Nothing since.

Chrissy


Julian



Mathilda



Eugene



Molly has seemed fairly indecisive of Eugene, and it also seems like Eugene would be her biggest suspicion by EoD yesterday. If we were basing her night actions on her scumreads, this would be my guess at who she blocked.

-how did she mistake vigi claim for acqui claim? i think it's what i said: boomer claims, says he shot dora, fauna's a wolf and knows who the bulletproof is so she automatically knows dora's the acqui, so her mind goes "we got the acqui!" instead of vigi. her argument that she misread vigi as acq makes no sense because boomer specifically says he SHOT dora in the post, or at least in a couple posts down. acqui would obviously say acquire. two misreads? c'mon now!
-her and flurry thinking boomer was blocked and molly was the nightkill sounds like good deflection if the wolves know they got blocked

OVERALL: wolf
once again, seems obvious



FLURRY
+going for zucker when it was between zucker and mathilda is a good look
+good activity level, posts very in the moment and off the top of the head
-previously mentioned his "pro-inactive" stance but then at the end of the first phase says he's voting me every time he's not voting an inactive
-at the time i HATED this post given how heated it was between phil and i, so i thought, given my phil suspicions, flurry was trying to distract (or else flurry's just an idiot for being bored when so much was happening); now i wonder if he was trying to distract from FAUNA getting the heat:

Originally Posted by TWG Flurry

bored. Tank

-here's his read on maple at one point:

Originally Posted by TWG Flurry

12) Maple - I know fake claim, but high chances to be town anyway. D0

that's at 12:37. then mathilda votes maple 4 posts later (12:50), and 2 posts after that (1:15) here's flurry:

Originally Posted by TWG Flurry

I think I'll also vote Maple because I think wolves got a little greedy here.

I can't confirm either Maple knew or not that Julian was PI.

I know Julian said "don't shoot me" somewhere.

If they didn't knew, it would make sense to find the PI so they don't need to deal with it later on for the counterclaim.

This seems little the most natural play here objectively speaking.

this is a big trend for flurry, and i disagree with punchy's read on him. he sheeps reads off of confirmed towns or whoever puts in work (phil, later on punchy). very pliable
-only molly blocks that make sense are chrissy, him, and phil, and if boomer's shot went through when flurry earlier said "i blocked del for obvious reasons" then molly could've blocked flurry, who's the roleblocker
-generally don't sense any WIM, especially at EOD

OVERALL: i don't know but leaning wolf
i really don't because it's flurry. a flurry and fauna team makes a lot of sense to me, so should fauna be a wolf but at least one of agent s/cole aren't, it's flurry most likely...maybe...FUCK! HE'S SO HARD TO READ!!!!! i think he's wolfy more than not though


MELBAxEUGENExYUKA
+eugene sealed it

OVERALL: town
if i'm wrong then eugene deserves the win



PHIL
+i know he said he voted zucker on post count principle, but he also wanted chief, someone he was suspicious of, to clarify his townread on zucker
+tone, activity level, all that seems legit
+going to zucker and staying on him does make him look legit...don't think him switching to chief then switching back to zucker would happen because he's got his back against the wall and forced to bus a partner
+similarly, calling the blocker to out themselves seems like a poor idea in hindsight (just let the blocker breadcrumb and lead for at least one or two more phases before outing), but if he was a wolf and he knew the blocker got a block in and wanted them to out themselves so they could be caught then he knew that them outing would catch one of his partners...don't think he goes that route unless he's taking advantage of the anon game and going full solo wolf, bussing all partners and playing independently
?not calling out zucker in the "if you're a role and you're around" is sus, although i understand not seeing zucker in the thread for a long time would contribute...just still sus
?on d1 he says "the fact that there wasn't a nightkill last night at all is very important" but then when it happen again with just molly dying he says on d4 that it's not a big deal and he's gonna ignore it
?in the event phil bussed zucker, this early post shows what his motives would be:

Originally Posted by TWG Phil

If you're saying we shouldn't lynch inactives because lynching inactives doesn't give any information... I disagree, and I think most people on FFR do too

you can get information from the people who are pushing the inactives, who they chose and why, and while I get that its not exactly a gold mine of information, d0 rarely is

OVERALL: leaning town
possibility for him to be a yolowolf bussing all teammates is always going to be there, but occam's razor that shit for now. don't be paranoid. if it turns out phil's a wolf then, like eugene, he deserves the win...maybe. i did catch him if he's a wolf, after all :P



PUNCHY
+glad he saw my del case, felt legitimate when we talked about it in the moment
+i don't agree with some of his analysis in his big post but it seems like he believes it?
?big quote walls are wolfy more often than not (look at how many people missed them or skimmed or skipped them...overwhelm people with info to blend in) but i've done them as town in the past too so i can't be hypocritical
-i know we're all villagers here according to the game's flavor, but calling zucker a "fellow villager" is kinda sus in hindsight
-i know, i know, fuck shroop, but punchy and cole are the only players in this game to have repeated shroops across their posts (apollo has autocorrect, and cole might too, but punchy's are shroops)
-frozen last EOD but responded to pinging

OVERALL: leaning town
i've probably been wrong about punchy, but in the chance i'm wrong about one of my other wolf leans, he's probably the wolf to swap in in their stead


ROLF
+pointed out that punchy doesn't like chief or apollo but apollo voted chief for the d0 reads list, asks if it might be distancing
+in hindsight, him pointing out the wolf daychat seems legit
+honest about not having the energy to play, and i sensed a bit of WIL there in the sense that being lynched would be a relief since IRL was stressing him out...wolf wouldn't be like that, would ask for a replacement
+pissed off reaction to maple forcing me to claim seemed really really legit both in the moment and on a reread
-UTR play

OVERALL: town
pretty pretty sure i'm right on this one



TANKxMERENGUE
+pointing out how often agent s responds whenever punchy gets mentioned was a unique observation and one that might have merit if agent s is a wolf and punchy is too
+mindmeld on apollo's alignment
+voted zucker when it was between mathilda, del, or zucker, and was the second or third one to do so...could be a miscalculated play, but he later on said he was thinking about going to del before the cop claim happened...between that and their other post about having vote indecesiveness, i think those are things that are easier lied about as a wolf (ie, just say you liked zucker instead of admitting you were indecesive)
?didn't like the PR cover plan...is that townie (gives wolves more info) or wolfy (shows proof of PR actions after they flip, possibly incriminating or clearing others)?
-pushing on rolf for saying NAI stuff early on kinda misses the point, didn't like that interaction
-pretty UTR; does interact with others and questions and prods and pokes but in the final analysis they don't really throw themselves around, get paralysis when shit gets real

OVERALL: leaning town
unless, once again, he bussed or miscalculated, voting zucker and keeping it there looks good; if i'm wrong on one of my wolf leans AND punchy then look at tank

[TWG Julian]

reads, and these are in order from most townie to least:

TOWN
yuka
apollo
rolf

LEANING TOWN
cherry
phil
punchy
tank

FLURRY
flurry

LEANING WOLF
agent s

WOLF
fauna
cole

[TWG Julian]

Originally Posted by TWG Flurry

Hey Julian, did you target Dora N1 ?

no, mathilda

[TWG Punchy]

Shroop? I think I missed this discussion and what the heck the word means

[TWG Isabelle]

Vote Count:
3/21 @ 00:00

00:59 = good
00:00 = bad

==============

Agent S [6]
Apollo, Boomer, Cherry, Merengue, Flurry, Fauna

Fauna [2]
Agent S, Rolf

Rolf [1]
Phil

Cherry [1]
Julian

[TWG Julian]

Originally Posted by TWG Julian

reads, and these are in order from most townie to least:

TOWN
yuka
apollo
rolf

LEANING TOWN
cherry
phil
punchy
tank

FLURRY
flurry

LEANING WOLF
agent s

WOLF
fauna
cole

oops, screwed up, should be this:

TOWN
yuka
apollo
rolf

LEANING TOWN
cherry
phil
tank
punchy

FLURRY
flurry

LEANING WOLF
agent s

WOLF
fauna
cole

[TWG Julian]

cole

think about dotty...think about chrissy...do the right thing...

[TWG Julian]

Originally Posted by TWG Punchy

Shroop? I think I missed this discussion and what the heck the word means

https://www.mafiauniverse.com/wiki/SHROOP

[TWG Merengue]

Originally Posted by TWG Punchy

That's a nice load to have off of my chest, mrmpht. So freeing, so nice.
Let's get a wolf today!!

thanks for this punchy. saves me a lot of time personally

read through the post walls and was worried that he wasn't actually going to give READS and do the good ol' "regurgitate everything that happened for town cred and then don't do anything with it" play, but the reads list generally follows from his trains of thought, with enough of what seems like synthesis and changing his mind on things from a holistic perspective. basically it's not performative because if it was, his reads list would look quite different from what it is now-- they'd be more "obvious" ones from his wall posts.

punchy looks good to me. Apollo and Agent S need to go. FMPOV Agent S is higher priority because of the last lynch wagons but Apollo is just as good tbh. Also I guess Apollo's super weird posts about Agent S being acquisitioner are super wolfy if Agent S flips wolf

I think I know enough to place votes now

[TWG Agent S]

Originally Posted by TWG Flurry

I'm going to vote Agent S over the reaction overall to being called out about the "bus" thing.

I feel like you had no valid reason to word things that way.

I understand why someone could say that they got bussed as town knowing that bus implies that it's a wolf terminology, but I don't see it here.

Again, falling into the same boat as Cole & Cherry here. I can scream & kick that I've misinterpreted 'bus' for years in favor of the discussion I provided earlier with Phil, but no one is going to accept that at face value until usernames are provided in post-game.

[TWG Agent S]

Originally Posted by TWG Fauna

I think I need to vote agent s

I have to leave in 5 minutes

Literally just taking advantage of Merengue's misrepresentation of discussion that happened today.

Fauna deserves a fair amount of pressure after tonight if I'm dead & flip town.