TWG CLXIV: Classics Man - Game Thread

[MixMasterLar]

PS vote Shado

[XelNya]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

It will give me the impression that you want to move on with the game at least.

Let me elaborate on why I'm advocating to not even consider partners this phase before I do that.

The issue is this. By considering partners, you're making a lot of assumptions based on interactions with players whose roles we clearly don't know. We've been wrong all game.

However. We have someone with a solid case made on them. They have had a miserable reaction to a player who trusted them flop on them, to a point of giving up, until a solution was reminded to them. Shado reacting to my flop is all the reason I need aside from my own digging into AA's post's points. I rarely sheep like that with actually going back and reading them over as carefully.

And let me explain why I trust AA's read. AA literally did the one thing a wolf player would have an immense amount of issues with: Following up. AA says he will do something, he does it, and he doesn't get lazy at all. The read is explained in painstaking detail, with the room to imagine a scenario he's wrong. He applied his pressure as he ought to have.

I looked into AA's read as if he was a wolf lieing to my face. Because I'll be fair, AA's a really fucking strong wolf, it's fucking retarded. Was AA's read his own? No. But he took it, and then expanded it so well it may as well have been. It's his own read in that his work he put into it is his own.

That's why I am hell-bent on seeing his flip.

Any-who. I'm actually going to go do that.

[XelNya]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

I feel like this is the very exact post that made xel wonder if Witch was Vigi.

Also Haku for reference of the post that gave me the witch read

Originally Posted by XelNya

This tone suggests you know one of the people who died was going to die.

A little blunt if I say so myself.

[XelNya]

The question actually I had a brain fart

Was anyone in the cfd a player capable of picking this up and convincing them self I was right...

[Wineandbread]

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

I think I remember reading a couple of people saying this, but I think you expressed it the most rationally. I'd like everyone who said something like this to answer as well (will check names later)

Why do you think AA would "dig right back into" me?
Considering the fact that he forced me to selfpres onto Witch, and considering my townread on her, I doubt he could possibly blame me for her flip even with the intense tunnelvision he had before EoD.
So, what're your reasonings for saying AA would be suspicious of me again?

For me at least, I don't agree with the statement that comes out of that day with a townread on you, but rather he switched to his second best target (which I think was a mistake). That throws his entire case out the window, a case that was extremely solid fmpov. He wouldn't blame you for the vote, but he would readdress his supposed "intense tunnelvision".

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

PoE keeps leading me to Shado/Jade/wineandbread as wolf team. AA left this too: #3047

When I first read this post by AA I wasn't sure what to make of it, as in I'm not sure what in my language points to a slip. My interpretation of this is that, because I used "bussed", it would imply some sort of set play by wolves to finish off Shado, because as town I probably would have used another word for it there instead?

What I meant there is specifically, the people that voted for him. I even rechecked if I actually wrote "bussed" after you brought it back up.

In any case, as with proph, I strongly encourage you not to rule me as a wolf (I don't even know how you got there with PoE so do explain, Shado asked as well)

[Wineandbread]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

This is also why I make everyone lose games constantly.

I can't get people to trust me with how I'm playing and I'm constantly stuck in that situation where people "know my flip", but can't really do anything about me.

It's sad.

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

I'm literally saying that I don't know what to do at this point in the game.

I believe you need to revisit your definition of "literal".

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

Before that, my AtE at the previous EoD was asking people to get off of DBP. In what world am I a wolf trying to steer town OFF of mislynches? It's literally only possible in the event that all available wagons were town at both EoDs, which is only possible if a meteor hit Haku's house earlier today. As in: totally impossible.

Yeah man it's totally impossible for wolves to coordinate
Not to mention the second most voted was witch, who we know now was town.

I'll bring up the vote tally here if you forgot:

4 -- DaBackpack -- roundbox (67), thesunfan (260), XelNya (94), AragakiAyase (263)
3 -- Witch of Certainty -- TWG Jade Harley (77), mellonxcollie (76), Hakulyte (272)
2 -- Prophylaxis -- Charu (313), ShadoWolfe (248)
2 -- TWG Jade Harley -- Prophylaxis (75), Witch of Certainty (94)
1 -- thesunfan -- MixMasterLar (131)
1 -- Charu -- DaBackpack (128)

Revisiting the dbp stuff, I don't know what town was really thinking. Did you guys really think he was a wolf, or that you really felt like you'd garner a lot of information from the lynch if he was town? Cause I'm pretty sure it's not the latter.
I'm just trying to understand (especially @sf and @xel here). I'll go through (I think mostly what was) sunfan's arguments on him again and see if they make sense.

[Wineandbread]

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

Every game where I lost it for town was because I questioned myself.

It feels like that's true anyway. For all the talk people have about me being too stubborn I always look back and think "If only I had stuck to my guns at X...."

That won't happen this time. I should have taken AA's advice and voted Shado with him

I wanted to highlight this post because I feel it's quite towny

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

I asked you because I'm lacking data on what's a wolf roundbox. I was hoping for some hindsight.

Hint: roundbox wasn't a wolf
PogChamp

Originally Posted by thesunfan

d0 is by far my worst day
this d0 was no exception

I was lost but when I thought I had DBP and when I was getting pushed you can see a townie change imo

At this point I feel like everyone's worst day is d0
So you associate being lost with being "less townie", for d0?

[XelNya]

Can you pretend that Shado doesn't exist and act like we're in the next phase already with 2 wolves left to find?

You could look up at my post and tell me why they're bad. (if they are)

Also you mention this later but I wanna touch it first

Originally Posted by inDheart

Votes from post 2126 to post 3114
It is night
---

• Votes -- Lynch -- Voters
• 4 -- Witch of Certainty -- MixMasterLar (36), TWG Jade Harley (84), AragakiAyase (185), ShadoWolfe (175)
• 3 -- ShadoWolfe -- thesunfan (142), XelNya (28), Wineandbread (15)
• 2 -- XelNya -- Prophylaxis (41), Witch of Certainty (65)
• 1 -- unvote -- Hakulyte (199)

There's prob one on witch, one on shado, and the other one is just... Fuck we need to flips for that one.

I can't be bothered to go deeper than page 157-168

Also

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

This is the post.
Why would he include MML if they're partners?
Who's rabbit? If it's jade, why does he include jade?!
If this is to intentionally distance himself, it's really well done because it legitimately confuses me

Admittedly me adding MML here is a mistake.
Rabbit would be wabby which was a stupid thing to call him sure
I'm not attatched to any single person left in the game but you. Digest that for a minute.

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

This reminded me that I wanted to look into the progression of your vote on me, because I remember asking what caused you to reverse your read on me and don't think I got a response.

Let's see: Townreading me all game, an example:

Townreading and more townreading. Starts to note in his read, but still townreads. Then, when I pushed on him for what I thought was a vigihunting slip
I'm gonna add the post he was responding to in this:


It's the first inkling of anything that could be inferred as Xel having suspicions of me. (attempt at having a bad narrative has the connotations of assuming negative intentions on my part). Nothing majorly alignment indicative here

...
then..

BAM, an openly voiced suspicion and a vote out of nowhere (will bolden parts about me that I want clarification on) :



So, Xel. I asked you this earlier and didn't get a response.

What caused you to reverse your read on me so quickly? Any specific posts come to mind?
Also, what's your opinion on the question you asked everyone in your read of me? Why hide your opinion, despite already posting a vote and a scumread of me?


and then this right before EoD ^


There's so little progression here overall
Like, please explain to me how you went from such a strong townread to such an instantly voteworthy scumread in the short span of The Thunderdome

This post does one important flaw. It neglects on my longer post that I mentioned I ignored almost everything from the day previous.

The exception being AA's read, which I changed to agreeing with based on checking his points, which I mention I did in my longer post. Something I don't usually do when I check on reads like that.

Assumed Killed:

7. ShadoWolfe

Assumed Towns

1. XelNya

I'm town cunts

Everyone else:

4. MixMasterLar

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

Three years of mafia experience, folks: Can't hunt wolves, can't be around for EoD knowing there's heat on him to claim, can't leave useful opinions for town at all in the game, likely was the one who shot Raeko because they where sheeping the ever loving shit out of Shado

I should feel pretty salty for that mislynch but honestly I don't really think that was a bad choice for a lynch even now. AA jumping off Shado for it is hysterical in hindsight but as noted before in this game AA loves CFDing at the last second so I should have aw that coming.


Anyway

I recall Shado saying something pretty disgusting at EoD that I wished I had time to tell with some let me go back and pull that up real quick

I have a hard time in the future assuming anything that MML starts off the day by putting his partner from yesterday who barely escaped death right back under the bus. Fair analysis of AA though ok maybe.

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

I think it's this progression right here:

(Quotes here)

See Shado and AA spent most of the day calling each other wolf

When it comes down to the wire and Shado is on the losing end of the war he basically starts appealing to AA's emotions. That's pretty gross.

AA of course buys into it after noted that it's AtE and telling himself he wont do it just to do it anyway. I started the Witch wagon but watching AA's EoD after what happened on DPB and me the last game just kind of proves that whatever AA has been saying the entire day phase doesn't mean jack all for him at the end. As they say, noted.

Vote can stay on Shado though because I'll be damned if we had pages upon pages of grudge match that turned out to be TvT. Shado is getting lynched 100% of the time here and our job is to find his partners today.

Good analysis, but potential bus of a partner he knows is traded for the vigi is here. Not saying yet I think that's the case but, possible tbh.

5. Prophylaxis

Originally Posted by Prophylaxis

Catching up and rereading, but to be honest, the Witch vig flip kind of destroyed my motivation to play the game since I think there is a solid chance we lose the game now unless we lynch scum right after the other.

It's just. I have NO IDEA who the scum are. There are still three wolves alive and aside from Xel no one stands out to me as explicitly wolfy.

Like, given that Witch flipped town and AA flipped town, I don't think my view of the gamestate is terribly off, but we have had NO WOLF FLIPS SO FAR and I /need/ those in order to actually scumhunt well. This is terribly frustrating because, wagon analysis is shot, and interaction analysis is shot - there goes 2/3rds of my way to analyze the gamestate, leaving only behavioral analysis which I am not very good at.

Blegh.

Slank cover for not posting more because you know talking more will lead to us getting you if you're wolf

Originally Posted by Prophylaxis

Shado's view of the gamestate feels similar to mine.

I dunno. I really want to trust AA especially given that he flipped town. But some of Shado's posts remind me of myself when I get pressured at times. ??

If I could have like a random cop check on any player I'd check Shado since if I know his alignment I think I could solve the game, but we're in my/lylo now.

uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhg

I liked you sooooo muuuuuuuuuuch

whyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy

6. Wineandbread

Originally Posted by Wineandbread

Assuming AA lives though, don't you think he would dig right back into Shado given Witch's flip?
I think he was convinced at eod but I'm not so sure about now

Couldn't because he swapped to witch. Assuming the votes stay the same but he lives during night instead aa swapped to witch too, would be a massive hypocrite

10. TWG Jade Harley

Originally Posted by TWG Jade Harley

a few more thoughts:

aa nightkill looks bad on shado, i dont care if people say wolves could do that to frame him, fact of the matter is i agree with mml, no way does wolf shado leave aa alive to fix the mistake he made yesterday.

so shado goes to the bottom of my scumleans instantly. dont know what to make of him trying to cfd on to xel at last min except i dont think xel/shado are ever w/w and are probably in fact w/t!!

xels fate is tied to shado imo going to try to make sense of the interactions and progressions later!!

sunfan, proph, and wab are null atm!

I actually hate you

Originally Posted by TWG Jade Harley

i think that changes as soon as witch flips town :/

Ehhhhh?

11. thesunfan

Originally Posted by thesunfan

I think AA came away from last phase with a townread on Shado

I don't agree with this, AA plz confirm post game for personal reference tho plz plz

Originally Posted by thesunfan

btw this was a really good post Haku
it means that Xel is literally lock wolf if shado is town from my pov

I think the implications are there but lock wolf I think is wrong.

Originally Posted by thesunfan

been playing around with something in my head

wolves can't roleblock the same person 2 nights in a row

if the jailkeeper was roleblocked last night and they aren't a consensus townread, I think they should claim since wolves can't block them again tonight

kinda a fringe thing, but I do think we're in dire enough straights to need this if this is what happened

I can agree with this if only one thing

we can solve shado, and lower our potential error

buuuuuuuuuuuuuut

Originally Posted by thesunfan

if you think I'm ever with shado idk what to tell you bud

then did you distance yourself particularly

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

I want to say sunfan's scum, but I have no idea what he's doing if he is. We're at MYLO. I feel like scumfan could just push for a lynch on me and the game would be over, so his posts today confuse me and make me hesitate in reading him.
I think Xel is almost always a wolf here. I'd vote him now, but I'd feel a lot more comfortable voting at EoD to prevent a wolfjack of my wagon if I'm wrong.

op yeah possibly

Also how shado could I be the wolf here if I didn';t even consider swapping to our fucking vigi, if I was scum who claimed to know who the vigi was, wouldn't that be a master class of a reason I could get them killed during the day given how players were viewing them?

AKA what the actual wolves fucking did

Me having no vote on witch, backed up with my implications past of them being our vigi (though subtle)

13. Hakulyte

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

Interesting stuff about Witch

@ #1969

Likeliness of this being true is relatively high;

Vigi -> Charu
NK -> Raeko (probably hunting PR/framing Shado)



Sunfan seems to have a good grasp of how Witch plays. Makes me wonder if they played together before or if it's just a similar style to what he's seen before.

@MML

Are you sure they voluntary NK'd AA to leave Shado open for a lynch?

Would like to see a follow up to this when I've now mentioned what Witch did that tipped me off. The other thing that's important is your question to MML. That's a tip that you're actually.. Playing pretty good town.

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

On the other hand, this is pretty disgusting.

And think I haven't even paid this post any attention yet.

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

w&b made a post about "assigned kills" affecting his "kill theory" that made no sense to me and when I asked him why it was important he said that it wasn't actually.

I found that pretty weird.
I still remember that roundbox didn't particularly deliver much either.

I think he's worth keeping an eye on, but I did like his larger posts.

Xel's wall was also really strange in his "Witch" section.

I kinda went over this by explaining my "what I thought was a tell" post, but. I left it vague because I didn't want my hints to get burried / ignored. Containing witch in the post was a mistake, and I actually think I should have left them out unless asked.

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

Why did you want me to vote Xel?

This.

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

Probably too subtle to be worth anything.

#1190

#1193

Kinda pointless tho because it can be interpreted as vigihunting as well so whatever.

It's not subtle it doesn't exist

your dumb questions are just dumb questions. there's no end goal for them in sight.

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

rip Xel.

..unless Sunfan was wolf.

Still a possibility fam

Short hand is based on these and the other reading let me give you my current purposed possible scum team

Shado / Jade / Sunfan or Prophylaxis

I think Haku is able to be listed as town pending flips of actual wolves
My issues with greggles are mentioned
And jade is just. Three nulls. That second post I quoted. How. It's contextually awful, it's phrased super bad. uhg

BUT. This is examining current day with an assumption that shado has flipped wolf. Until Shado flips wolf don't take it immensely seriously.

BUT XEL YER READS FLOPPED ON ANOTHER

BUT XEL WHY

BUT XEL U IGNORED SHADO

BUT XEL U

it's 5:45 am I'm gonna go to bed now to some game grumps kthnx

[Wineandbread]

Oh shit multiquoting works over multiple pages? TIL

Originally Posted by thesunfan

you can look at just about any d0 of mine and see that I'm struggling

I got made fun of for it a lot not too long ago

aside from this game, I've made a lot less self-depricating posts and I try harder to find one solid wolfread on d0, my head wasn't really in the game at the time but you can see the point where that changed

The thing about you that I felt was weird which MML/Haku have touched on is that you seem more antagonistic this game than I would expect. Maybe somebody else can comment, and since I've never played a wolf game with you, but it strikes me weird the way you lashed out at Lar and Shado

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

Ugh. I'm sorry for calling you dense, but I'm tired of rehashing the same points and it only takes two towns to spontaneously decide to change their minds and vote me at EoD for the game to go kaput. If you have something against me, say it now and I'll do my best to address it. If not, don't vote me out of nowhere at EoD. We already have Xel and MML voting me 100% of the time. I think (and really hope) at least one of them is scum or this is over before it starts. The last thing I need is Haku deciding to join them at T-2mins

This brings me to my two views I guess.
One is where you, Shado, is a wolf. In which case, I'm not that sure on your partners.
The other is where Xel and MML are partners (with Jade maybe?). It's the unwavering attitude from both of them that is messing with my head right now. They are bursting with confidence from a source that I don't have.

@Xel: I find it interesting that you haven't actually voted for Shado despite all your talk. Why do you insist on being the hammer rather than the second vote?

[Wineandbread]

I'll be back around lunchtime for phone posting, then after work hours

[Prophylaxis]

I have class for the next three hours or so but I will do my best to catch up after that.

[inDheart]

Votes from post 3119 to post 3511
Night in 13:19:23
---

• Votes -- Lynch -- Voters
• 1 -- ShadoWolfe -- MixMasterLar (31)
• 1 -- unvote -- Hakulyte (155)
• 6 -- not voting -- Prophylaxis (9), ShadoWolfe (70), thesunfan (55), TWG Jade Harley (29), Wineandbread (20), XelNya (21)

[thesunfan]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

That's strange. I guess we don't have the same standards for what sounds "genuine".

that was like political ad campaign tier taking things out of context

"HE'S BEEN MARRIED MORE THAN ONCE"

"HE FILED HIS TAXES LATE"

"HE WASN'T SURE AND SAID TO KILL WITCH; WAFFLING IS WOLFY"

[thesunfan]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

@Sunfan: #1840

I can't tell if you're abusing known flips to get back in the game or if you legit did a badass call out of nowhere, but I think this is a 180 compared to #3462

look I can't "abuse flips" before they happen, even as a wolf
going into a game with a plan of who to kill on nights before any info changes literally anything is a pretty bad idea

I joke that the reads I make when I'm in the bathroom haven't ever been wrong, which so far is true, but it has a very short history of like 3 other times

if for no other reason than history repeating itself, it probably means that proph is scum and has been trying to go deep since the early wagon on him

something something Witch of Space

[thesunfan]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

I don't want to insult you for having good reads, but I'm tilted by you having "nothing" and "everything" at same time.

it wasn't at the same time you can see where the change was

from the point where I made the emotional post to AA et al, something had kicked my ass into gear

[thesunfan]

Originally Posted by Wineandbread

I wanted to highlight this post because I feel it's quite towny



Hint: roundbox wasn't a wolf
PogChamp



At this point I feel like everyone's worst day is d0
So you associate being lost with being "less townie", for d0?

no, YOU associate it with being less townie
that's something YOU all assume

[thesunfan]

re: lashing out

I don't really feel like I lashed out?

I was a bit harder on Lar than I normally am, I thought he was being annoying at the time.

I don't think I ever lashed out at shado. I think I pushed him hard, but no harder than I normally push people I believe in.

I'm gonna shower then I'm gonna read the thread until I have class (which keeps me busy from 5:00 to 8:00 or so assuming I eat dinner while I'm out), but other than that I'll be here for the remainder of the phase.

[Hakulyte]

@ Vigi kill etc. #3503

My issue with this post is that if I was Witch here, I would lie about who is the vigi kill and who is the NK to protect myself from getting targeted.

The reason is because the only players who can verify if this is right are the wolves.

[Hakulyte]

If anything, your "This tone suggests you know one of the people who died was going to die." is what's weird to me. I have trouble finding that.

[Hakulyte]

I guess it's the "I'm not sure what's so confusing about them?" part.