TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries 2 - GAME THREAD

[Hakulyte]

Originally Posted by meno_rocks123

I actually didn't know sunfan had already voted by then. That's why I didn't mention insta right away. I reread the day and noticed sunfan had voted earlier.

Besides, jrodd was second in my lynch order. I'm willing to lynch 2134 instead of 1234 if it means working with the team.

First paragraph looks good.
2nd paragraph looks bad.

-shrugs-

[meno_rocks123]

I was asked for an ideal lynch order. Technically, we're only getting three lynches (of which jrodd was the first). As long as I've picked a wolf in my top 3, then it's not a bad plan. It may not be the best plan, but it'll technically work.

[Hakulyte]

raeko, what's your voting intentions with this so far?

[ShadoWolfe]

Originally Posted by Vendetta21

he was obviously town painted grey by chaos wolf during an earlier phase when people stated who their allys and adversaries were in public so the wolves knew who was painted grey, then lynched in insta to try to progress the phases further and make people confused, but there's no way in any universe jrodd was a wolf here

I don't get this. Assuming j-rodd was town means he was targeted by a Chaos Wolf. The only reason he'd be targeted is if the wolf knew he could get him lynched. From my perspective, there isn't a player (aside from sunfan, who's cleared) that could've made that lynch happen.
Also, if j-rodd was town, then AA's nightkill was a result of a direct-target, which takes away the source of Haku's clear and paints him in a negative light for allowing the entirety of town to assume there was only one wolf for a full day phase, while he believed there were two.

Idk if I'm willing to believe that. I'd like to hear more from Raeko (unvote) on this before casting my vote, but meno's been trending up for mechanically solid posts that seem to stem from a legit hunting mindset)

[ShadoWolfe]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

I just cannot remove tunnel vision from Shado this phase because in every scenarios where he's right, he's still the most interesting vote for me.

Oh? How am I the most "interesting" vote?
What's interesting is that you're using that as your basis for leaving your vote on me even in "every scenarios" where I'm right.
I have a thing where I automatically find people who say they want to lynch "for info", without specifying what info they could gain, scummy. "Interesting" takes that another step farther though lmao

So, if you want to deal with this problem, you'll have to explain to me why raeko/meno is the better choice.[/quote]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

sunfan #1610
haku #1739
shado #1775
meno #1785

I'm concluding meno vs Shado.

Uhm. Nice conclusion there, Haku. In a list of sunfan (cleared), you, me, and meno, it must've taken a lot of deduction to remove your name and sunfans.
/s

[Hakulyte]

Yeah, I can hardly find anything good to add for today. I'm having a really hard time clearing anyone.

[ShadoWolfe]

k wish me luck, I have two chapter tests and a short paper due at midnight!
I'll be here on and off as I try to finish that up.

Raeko, please talk about anything when you get here. Your data point seems to slipping from its position, and I'd hate to see it start descending.

[ShadoWolfe]

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

Oh? How am I the most "interesting" vote?
What's interesting is that you're using that as your basis for leaving your vote on me even in "every scenarios" where I'm right.
I have a thing where I automatically find people who say they want to lynch "for info", without specifying what info they could gain, scummy. "Interesting" takes that another step farther though lmao

So, if you want to deal with this problem, you'll have to explain to me why raeko/meno is the better choice.

Uhm. Nice conclusion there, Haku. In a list of sunfan (cleared), you, me, and meno, it must've taken a lot of deduction to remove your name and sunfans.
/s[/quote]

Bold underlined above^ is Haku's words in a multiquote that must've gotten cut in my response.

[ShadoWolfe]

omfg formatting disaster.
k bbl I'm on and off doing hw and taking tests for 3rhs

[Hakulyte]

I guess it doesn't matter who is right or wrong at this point.

It's more like "who will actually be here to vote tomorrow".

[mellonxcollie]

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

Why? I might be biased, but I think it turned out alright. Why is it clear Chaos Wolf is involved?

Clear was the wrong choice of word, I probably should have said "very plausible" or something. Just thinking about the combinations of potential roles with the flips, it seems like something has been fudged somewhere. Every time I try to make connections with the flip colours and the potential roles and their players, none of them really add up.

I think this is situation-specific, no? One of the reasons I was reluctant to assume j-rodd was Chaos Wolf off the bat was because I think Chaos Wolf always chooses to be painted purple here. If he had flipped purple, we'd have assumed he was town that had been targeted by Xiz. Freeze wolf does seem likeliest now that Haku's said he had AA in his allegiances, but I was assuming VT-chaosed-into-gray until then.

If Jrodd had been targeted by Xiz he would have flipped pink, not purple. Purple is a colour that is not even in the setup. If I were chaos wolf I might pick grey because of the human PRs that flip grey, while there is only one grey wolf role.

Have fun with your friend!

Thanks I had a good time ^^

[meno_rocks123]

If I were chaos wolf I'd make them flip mayonnaise, just to fuck with people.

[mellonxcollie]

Last game I asked Tokzic if I could make my colour flip "SPARKLY" and he said no

*shakes fist*

[Hakulyte]

Pink in OP is actually "magenta" if you quote the post and probably interpreted as purple here.

*yawn*

[mellonxcollie]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

Pink in OP is actually "magenta" if you quote the post and probably interpreted as purple here.

*yawn*

True, that's fair. It doesn't really matter either way so

[meno_rocks123]

Originally Posted by mellonxcollie

Last game I asked Tokzic if I could make my colour flip "SPARKLY" and he said no

*shakes fist*

First mistake: asking if you could.

[meno_rocks123]

Are we waiting for anything now? I'll admit last phase went a little quickly considering V didn't even get a chance to weigh in, but everyone has shown up and dropped a few cents already.

[Hakulyte]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

1. Xel was the vigi.

- He didn't kill someone n0 because he was afraid to hit a town.
- He didn't defend himself because he knew he would flip red.
- He probably expected a Xiz lynch D0 and knew that if he made himself appear wolfy, people would be confused by his flip.

Note: People still got confused by his flip anyway. He's finally cleared because the game didn't end after jrodd's flip.

2. jrodd is the Freeze Wolf.

- jrodd dropped seer cover. Him being the Wise Seer is incompatible with the game.
- jrodd didn't claim adept guardian during the mass claim. It makes no sense that he doesn't do so because it would have confirmed inDheart as either Town or Wolf.
- inDheart doesn't have a peek. He cannot be the Wise Seer.

This conclude that inDheart is Adept Guardian and jrodd Freeze Wolf
To further this logic, as meno said, Greenmaster and Wise Seer feels like a redundancy and it's highly unprobable that we can have both in the same setup as well.

3. Hakulyte (yes, we're talking about me here) is the reason why AragakiAyase got killed.

- My Day 3 Adversary happened to be AragakiAyase. It was a terrible choice, but it happened.
- A wolf must have targeted me because they still had 2 wolves alive.
- I thought 2 wolves were dead and I was wrong.
- I believe I got targeted by a wolf. Wolves cannot target other wolves. This should clear me again.

4. The real last Wolf, ShadoWolfe (?)

Who could have known I had AA as Adversary yesterday besides me? ShadoWolfe.
Who could have known the game wouldn't end yesterday even if jrodd died ? ShadoWolfe.
Who looked kind of weak at the beginning of day 3, but shrugged things off ? ShadoWolfe.
Why did ShadoWolfe didn't mind getting lynched first yesterday?

..because he's most likely the Master Wolf.

What did ShadoWolfe probably didn't expect?

That we would lynch jrodd and get the information that breaks every worlds. That his flip is grey.

This is why jrodd's flip was so important.

My Final World:

1. j-rodd Freeze Wolf
2. inDheart Adept Guardian
3. thesunfan Vanilla Town
4. Raeko Vanilla Town
5. Meno Vanilla Town
6. ShadoWolfe Master Wolf
7. Vendetta21 Greenmaster
8. AragakiAyase Vanilla Town
9. XelNya Vigi
10. Hakulyte Vanilla Town
11. R.E. Aryxi (replacement for Xiz) Janitor Wolf

So, how wrong do you think I am about all of this?

[Hakulyte]

I concede that I didn't take Chaos Wolf into account, but you realize that if there's no Chaos Wolf in this game, my world is suddenly fairly likely?

[mellonxcollie]

Originally Posted by meno_rocks123

Are we waiting for anything now? I'll admit last phase went a little quickly considering V didn't even get a chance to weigh in, but everyone has shown up and dropped a few cents already.

Yupp. We're waiting for the end of the phase (or at least closer to it). Why so insta happy?

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

I concede that I didn't take Chaos Wolf into account, but you realize that if there's no Chaos Wolf in this game, my world is suddenly fairly likely?

Yeah it's possible. But it's impossible for us to know whether there is a Chaos wolf. So yeah I'll be thinking about that possibility, and take that into account as a game theory, but it's one of many things that may have happened