TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries 2 - GAME THREAD

[meno_rocks123]

Unfortunately, we now have to wait for V or raeko to show up, which may be a while.

[ShadoWolfe]

okay, so the way I see it:

j-rodd was either Freeze Wolf, Chaos Wolf, or VT like he claimed. I refuse to entertain the notion that he could be a Human PR who lied about his claim, and stuck with it.

If he was VT, then the only possible way he could've flipped gray is if he was targeted by a Chaos wolf at some point prior to his flip. This is the simplest, but the most likely because AA's death is impossible with two wolves, unless someone lied about their allegiances yesterday.

If someone claims AA was their allegiance, they'll either be lock-cleared or a lying wolf, depending on who it is. There's really only one person I think would ever do this, but I guess we'll see. Either way, because it's weird that any Chaos Wolf would target jrodd (who was universally townread before last phase), I think that this is a definite possiblity.

If he was Chaos wolf, then there were two wolves at AA's point of death, and 1-2 (probably one) of the colors that flipped is wrong. If this is the case, then he either could've been choosing possible lynch candidates (Xiz/Aryxi is likely target for this), or nightkills (inD, AA), or both. Him being Chaos Wolf is the toughest scenario to figure out because he can choose anyone and any color if this is the case. If Chaos Wolf, then every flip so far is under scrutiny and j-rodd flipping gray would be invalidated, as Chaos Wolf chooses its own flipcolor.

If he was Freeze Wolf, then there were two wolves at AA's point of death, and AA likely died due to a negation of someone's PM. This is verifiable depending on whether or not someone shared their allegiances in thread, with AA anywhere in those allegiances the dayphase prior to AA's death. If he was Freeze Wolf, then that expands XelNya's role to possible vigi (hit j-rodd and wolves nokilled).

Basically, we're looking at a very high chance of a chaos wolf existing, whether or not it was jrodd. If this is the case, then we really need to reassess all of our assumptions on flipped colors so far. inD/AA/Xiz/Aryxi/j-rodd's colors are all up in the air as a result.

Gonna be running back and forth most of the day today, but I'll try to be here when I can.
Also, sunfan owes me a dollar!

[ShadoWolfe]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

I may flip a table if my post is wrong tbh.

You're gonna have to end up flipping a table.

meno

[Hakulyte]

I had AA as Adversary yesterday. That's the missing piece of information I didn't notice.

[Hakulyte]

Read my post with spoilers in Part 3 and try to break my world.

[meno_rocks123]

Are you not going to defend yourself against either of our gamesolve posts that both pin you as the last wolf? Or are you just going to say that we need to step back to square 1 before we make any decisions?

[Hakulyte]

jrodd cannot be Chaos Wolf or VT because his flip is grey.

[meno_rocks123]

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

You're gonna have to end up flipping a table.

meno

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RNiT2rdpBmw

[ShadoWolfe]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

3. Hakulyte (yes, we're talking about me here) is the reason why AragakiAyase got killed.

- My Day 3 Adversary happened to be AragakiAyase. It was a terrible choice, but it happened.
- A wolf must have targeted me because they still had 2 wolves alive.
- I thought 2 wolves were dead and I was wrong.
- I believe I got targeted by a wolf. Wolves cannot target other wolves. This should clear me again.

If it was anyone else, I wouldn't believe this. As it is, I think this makes sense because jrodd had no reason to be targeted by a Chaos Wolf. I explored this possibility last night, hence "there's only one person I think would ever do this", was referring to you.

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

4. The real last Wolf, ShadoWolfe (?)

Who could have known I had AA as Adversary yesterday besides me? ShadoWolfe.
Who could have known the game wouldn't end yesterday even if jrodd died ? ShadoWolfe.
Who looked kind of weak at the beginning of day 3, but shrugged things off ? ShadoWolfe.
Why did ShadoWolfe didn't mind getting lynched first yesterday?

..because he's most likely the Master Wolf.

You're dead wrong on this, though.

All my analysis yesterday was hinged on my assumption that AA proved one wolf left, because everyone agreed to not list AA in their allegiances

Of course I thought the game wouldn't end, I thought j-rodd was town!

I actually came out really strong at the beginning of day 3. I was weaker towards the center because I was literally not wanting to play, was feeling like shit, and thought the game was auto.

Because I thought the game was fucking auto!

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

What did ShadoWolfe probably didn't expect?

That we would lynch jrodd and get the information that breaks every worlds. That his flip is grey.

This is why jrodd's flip was so important.

I know it looks bad that I was defending j-rodd, but idk how else to tell you that I thought he was clear. Lynching me will cost us this game, Haku, you're seriously wrong here

[Hakulyte]

It's not like town will lose if you get mislynched. I'm ready to take the risk.

[ShadoWolfe]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

jrodd cannot be Chaos Wolf or VT because his flip is grey.

read my post. he can be either. chaos wolf chooses its own flipcolor.
your vote's on town, Haku. Get off and get on meno.

[mellonxcollie]

I don't think we should be letting Meno slip by, he was the vote that insta'd jrodd last night. I was excited to hear sober Jrodd's thoughts. The fact that he was the one to insta.... NAGL!!!! I would NOT have done that

[Hakulyte]

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

read my post. he can be either. chaos wolf chooses its own flipcolor.
your vote's on town, Haku. Get off and get on meno.

You slipped again.

Chaos Wolf can turn himself green, but that doesn't make Chaos Wolf a VT.

[meno_rocks123]

I actually didn't know sunfan had already voted by then. That's why I didn't mention insta right away. I reread the day and noticed sunfan had voted earlier.

Besides, jrodd was second in my lynch order. I'm willing to lynch 2134 instead of 1234 if it means working with the team.

[ShadoWolfe]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

It's not like town will lose if you get mislynched. I'm ready to take the risk.

I was willing to take that risk yesterday, when it could be guaranteed that we'd lynch both meno and raeko. Lynching me means you have to lynch meno tomorrow (if you're even alive), and would cost the game if it's actually raeko.

[ShadoWolfe]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

You slipped again.

Chaos Wolf can turn himself green, but that doesn't make Chaos Wolf a VT.

You're wrong on this too!
Reread OP.
Chaos wolf can turn himself ANY COLOR except green!

[Hakulyte]

V will most likely get NK'd tonight assuming the game continues because he's the last confirmed.

I'm going to reevaluate the entire game if it gets to that.

[meno_rocks123]

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

I was willing to take that risk yesterday, when it could be guaranteed that we'd lynch both meno and raeko. Lynching me means you have to lynch meno tomorrow (if you're even alive), and would cost the game if it's actually raeko.

You were willing to take the risk when the lynch order was you, me, raeko. Leaving jrodd to win.

I'm 95% on board with haku's solve now, but that's mostly because I don't want to let go of the dream call.

[Hakulyte]

I feel like we have too many PRs if 2 wolves aren't currently dead.

[ShadoWolfe]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

V will most likely get NK'd tonight assuming the game continues because he's the last confirmed.

I'm going to reevaluate the entire game if it gets to that.

You're confirmed too imo. If you're being honest about AA (which is 99% because chaos wolf wouldn't target jrodd prior to day 3), then you're cleared by mechanics.