TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread - Page 98

**Charu** · 10-15-2016, 06:00 PM

*Waves to thesunfan*

**Charu** · 10-15-2016, 06:02 PM

. . . That's it?

**danceflashrevo** · 10-15-2016, 06:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by _Zenith_

Ending this now because I need to be right back, but this is a good point to start off on why I’m voting you right now.

theoretically no OpieOP

**Charu** · 10-15-2016, 06:08 PM

Like, I appreciate this scenario, I do, but erm...

What's the word, what's that word...

*Ahem*

Unnecessary...

Yeah, that's the word!

The scenario you presented just sounds way too convoluted to even be a possibility. What you're suggesting is he read how all the actions were going to be performed, withheld the kill and is calling a stack on shadowolfe.

That IS what you're saying, are you not?

**Precarious** · 10-15-2016, 06:09 PM

Continuing reads. The last few people will be up next, followed by vote analysis of the first two days (no one's actually looked at both days together yet, afaik, so it'll be interesting to see what turns up).

***

Charu: Un-CCed Bodyguard claim. Town.

I'll elaborate on this one last time. Put simply, if there is an actual bodyguard/asceticizer out there who hasn't claimed, now's the time. Having said that, it's not going to happen. If it did, either anti-town Charu or anti-town CCer would lose. There's no way around that at this point. No one can CC falsely without losing the game either today or tomorrow. And a real CC would doom Charu either today or tomorrow, which is why he never would have made this as an anti-town gambit in the first place. He's town.

psychoangel691: Replaced DBP, which led to some consternation all around, since DBP was being looked at suspiciously at the time. On iso, I mostly like the reads I'm seeing: they align pretty well with both what we know now and what I'm feeling, and it seems to be done through a mix of instinct and reasoning. The posts are pretty straightforward, so there's not a lot to parse, but the pushes on both Juckter and Haku yesterday would be pretty daring from a wolf. Irritated tone when pushed by MML and Xel today; that reads neutral to me.

If psycho isn't town, then she's more likely to be SK than a wolf. A lot of the suspicion of psycho goes back to DBP, but it's hard to definitively read psycho because her posts are to the point: they say what they mean to say and nothing else. But I read more town than SK here for now.

Precarious: Town. The people's champion.

roundbox: Before I even iso, I'll say I'm left a little leery by how much his game has changed from Day 0 EoD. Roundbox won me to his side with his excellent end of D0, where he was very active, was making reads, and kind of saw the game the way I do in a philosophical sense. The problem is, he's been much more inactive since. People kind of busted on his "follow the vote" approach, but while I don't really have a problem with following the vote, he never really did anything with it. He looks better on iso than I expected, though, because even though his posts have become somewhat clipped, they're at least making assertions (well, the game-related ones are). I'm not sure if they're good assertions, but the activity isn't quite as bad as I had expected. I'd still like to see actual reads here, because I feel like he's been sort of coasting. I still read town, but I'm drifting in the direction of null.

***

Bonus observation: #1575 looks hilarious in hindsight.

**Precarious** · 10-15-2016, 06:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by _Zenith_

For now I'll say I think it was Precarious who went full-on OMGUS with the whole "Zenith is my best SK read" when I had said at the start of the phase that he was a very good one for me.

This doesn't help his case in any way, it'd help solidify mine. Take that as you will Precarious.

I take it as you not refuting my case. Feel free to do so anytime.

**_Zenith_** · 10-15-2016, 06:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Charu

Like, I appreciate this scenario, I do, but erm...

What's the word, what's that word...

*Ahem*

Unnecessary...

Yeah, that's the word!

The scenario you presented just sounds way too convoluted to even be a possibility. What you're suggesting is he read how all the actions were going to be performed, withheld the kill and is calling a stack on shadowolfe.

That IS what you're saying, are you not?

Look closer. The first section of his post is entirely unnecessary. It almost feels forced because in the way I'm thinking he's the SK, he would know who died and wouldn't have to either force this situation in that post or he'd try to make it look like he did something to avoid flak from others.

Even so, the fact his suspicion started with OMGUS is terrible. His case almost becomes filler and assumption at that point.

**Charu** · 10-15-2016, 06:16 PM

But he said in that very same post that it's a possibility shadow was stacked.

...I have idea where you're getting that he didn't know he died.

He was suggesting scenarios that the WOLVES were plotting.

**Charu** · 10-15-2016, 06:17 PM

So, tell me Zenith, if he was the SK, why would he say that... and then kill shadowolfe himself, because that's what you're saying with...

Quote:

Originally Posted by _Zenith_

...I'm thinking he's the SK...

...This statement

**Charu** · 10-15-2016, 06:18 PM

...Or maybe I'm reading your post wrong, let me read it a fourth time, lol

**Charu** · 10-15-2016, 06:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by _Zenith_

...You then completely contradict this hypothetical and finally notice that Shadow has died, disproving anything you were trying to make a point of in the first paragraph of this post...

This part is tripping me up.

**roundbox** · 10-15-2016, 06:33 PM

for the record, I'm still here
almost done with my post

**Precarious** · 10-15-2016, 06:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by _Zenith_

First section is literally bullshit. Shadow died, you even state so. Why do you even have the first sentence in this post say what it does and why the hell do you word “Frame Shadow” in such a way that you are basing a hypothetical situation as a truth? How can a frame happen on a dead PR? This screams you aren’t town in more ways than one. Firstly, town is definitely going to keep track of who dies because it is information that can be used to stem into further threads of suspicion; in the case a player suddenly finds himself at all nulls or doesn’t know where to continue off from, knowing exactly what the kills were is one of the best starting points. You clearly demonstrate that this isn’t the case.

You then completely contradict this hypothetical and finally notice that Shadow has died, disproving anything you were trying to make a point of in the first paragraph of this post.

My point is simply this: Town is never going to hypothesize a death in the manner you do here. Your post here shows that you’re digging for tinfoil/trying to show you’ve done work to live when this isn’t the case when you start to dig deeper in your posts (like I am now doing). Speaking further of the “missing nightkill” shouldn’t even be happening after a first realization post like I did because unless you already have the knowledge of what happened (and at that case you can simply stage a reaction based from other player reactions), it’ll always be a hypothetical dead end since there is no fact to it.

Ending this now because I need to be right back, but this is a good point to start off on why I’m voting you right now.

This is your case? Really?

You stated earlier that you're not good with mechanics, so I'll try to explain in more detail how that first paragraph could be pertinent.

Shado claimed Vig. He stated that he would shoot Haku last night in order to prove himself. The most likely course of action is that he was killed with the anticipation that Haku's death would have cleared him.

But there are other possibilities. If the wolves chose to withhold a kill, then there would only be two kills last night: Shado-->Haku, and whoever the SK targeted (although for all the wolves knew, Shado could have been the SK). This would have prevented Shado from being mechanically cleared. Under this scenario, there would be less than three kills, which could have theoretically left Shado vulnerable to accusations of using an anti-town kill as vig cover.

Now, if Shado died, why is this relevant? Because in this scenario it wasn't the wolves that killed Shado, it was the SK. It's possible, albeit very unlikely (which I'll explain below) that the wolves choose to withhold a kill in order to frame Shado, not realizing that the SK would target him.

Now, this is a very unlikely scenario for a whole bunch of reasons, I merely point out that it's technically possible. The main hangup is that Shado stated an intent during EoD to shoot Haku, a wolf. This would further buttress Shado's claim of a vig kill even in the absence of a third kill. Certainly we would examine the possibility of a block or a duplication or a misdirection, and it would also make it so Shado could only be a vig or the SK (I assume the wolves can't kill themselves) unless the very unlikely possibility of the SK targeting Haku despite Shado's claim came to pass (and why would it?). There's also the fact that such misdirection has questionable payoff at best, given that the wolves would be essentially sacrificing a night kill for the very limited benefit of maybe causing a mislynch the next day. And of course if the SK did target Shado, they would waste a nightkill for nothing. Obviously, this scenario is the most unlikely, and I dismiss it as such. I simply note that it's one possible permutation for what happened last night.

I eagerly await an actual response to my case against you.

**thesunfan** · 10-15-2016, 06:39 PM

Psycho (1)- Xel
dfr (1)- Prec
Prec (1)- Zenith

**Precarious** · 10-15-2016, 06:39 PM

I'm going to make dinner and watch football, but once I'm done cooking I'll just keep my laptop by me while I'm watching so I'll be able to work on my last isos.

**roundbox** · 10-15-2016, 06:58 PM

Code:

execute followthevote.exe

LOADING
...
...
READY!

Zeeeeeenith

last time, Zenith was at -50 for jumping in as a replacement and not putting a vote down. can I fault him? a little, but not so much. Let's see how he stacks up this time.

He spent a nice part of the day looking at Hakulyte and openly calling his gameplay "bad".

Quote:

Originally Posted by _Zenith_

juckter

Here's his first vote.
His biggest reason for voting the juck was because of:

Quote:

Originally Posted by _Zenith_

Feel like I'll be tagging juckter or botchi with my vote this phase (I have it among good grounds a wolf resides in the lower post count of people)

personally I don't like this too much since it's not always a guarantee that a wolf is a low poster. I mean, I know he's not wrong, but this is hindsight and can't be argued too reliably. it's not the worst thing for someone who just replaced in

Quote:

Originally Posted by _Zenith_

MML came into the game inaccurate and wrong on a few things, and I didn't see him rescind those yet. Not only that, his attitude is unorthodox for MML as usual (I've played several town games with MML, this is very uncharacteristic) and far too aggressive and maybe I'm biased in that sense because I'd lynch him on those grounds alone.

I need to look at the posts more closely again but I saw his larger post and most of that was analytically wrong in areas. To me, it seems like he's bolstering a front of activity to get by and not actually reading in depth and being super aggressive in the process which doesn't reflect his normal town meta in the slightest.

MixMasterLar

Here's his second vote. I agree with his read and this vote is fine. positive points, especially since he's willing to change his vote based on #HOTREADS

Quote:

Originally Posted by _Zenith_

juckter

final vote. hopped back because...

Quote:

Originally Posted by _Zenith_

The fact of lying about being online and trying to reread people and it took hours to make his presence known is Lynch status imo.

this is gud and a nice reaction. POSITIVE POINTS

VERDICT:
Zenith looks pretty solid here. Good performance and votes that don't feel premeditated.
TOWN LEAN

DFR

Charu

psychoangel

prepreprecarious

Quote:

Originally Posted by Precarious

I'm really not liking the inactives. I was already sort of suspicious of botchi, who's disappeared entirely, and I'm increasingly bothered by juckter. Juckter, when he has posted, has typically tended toward analysis and content. but somewhat vaguely. His style looks worse by its absence. It's not hard to associate the inactivity with being overly careful to avoid traceable reads and content.

Juckter gets my vote for the moment at least.

here's his first vote. It's for the inactive. He was right with this one, kinda like zenith above. It's ok. neutral-ish points
let's see how he ends up on DFR

Quote:

Originally Posted by Precarious

Speaking of trending down,

DFR's playstyle is a less interactive, less solving version of what I've seen in previous games, and yet no one challenges them. They've been perfectly content to float along undisturbed, seemingly more interested in staying out of the fire than mixing it up. On iso, their content looks a little better than I expected, but at the same time it's perfunctory. There's just the edges of content here, enough to seem like they're participating (and in line with their meta to some degree--which would be good if it weren't easily exploitable), but not enough to actually push anything to happen, either with them or with others.

Mellon has been underinvolved all game. I don't know what they normally play like, but what I've seen here isn't good. And although I'm taking my vote off juckter for now (in light of his situation), I'm still not thrilled there. I don't want to pile on low content/low activity people exclusively, because there's no way that's the whole wolfpack and sk, but there are anti-town people in that group for sure.

For now, danceflashrevo, although this could just as easily be a mellon vote.

ok, here's the vote
looking back for context... it's pretty boring, and there isn't much. It's at least backed up with an argument and doesn't seem terribly forced as he's been building the case on DFR for a bit now.

VERDICT
still in town mode from last F-T-V

MixMasterLarDude

XelNya

raeko

TL;DR

**roundbox** · 10-15-2016, 07:04 PM

and to make a "current standings" list, here we go:

Charu (obv)
Psychoangel / Raeko
Zenith
Precarious
DFR

Xel

MML

**roundbox** · 10-15-2016, 07:05 PM

forgot to drop the MML vote

**roundbox** · 10-15-2016, 07:09 PM

I am playing in another tournament starting some time between 8-9 PM server time and I'm hoping to be back in time
me moving my vote will be difficult

**roundbox** · 10-15-2016, 07:22 PM

man this thread is bumpin'

10-15-2016, 06:09 PM	#1945
Precarious Unacceptable Join Date: Mar 2014 Posts: 208	Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread Continuing reads. The last few people will be up next, followed by vote analysis of the first two days (no one's actually looked at both days together yet, afaik, so it'll be interesting to see what turns up). *** Charu: Un-CCed Bodyguard claim. Town. I'll elaborate on this one last time. Put simply, if there is an actual bodyguard/asceticizer out there who hasn't claimed, now's the time. Having said that, it's not going to happen. If it did, either anti-town Charu or anti-town CCer would lose. There's no way around that at this point. No one can CC falsely without losing the game either today or tomorrow. And a real CC would doom Charu either today or tomorrow, which is why he never would have made this as an anti-town gambit in the first place. He's town. psychoangel691: Replaced DBP, which led to some consternation all around, since DBP was being looked at suspiciously at the time. On iso, I mostly like the reads I'm seeing: they align pretty well with both what we know now and what I'm feeling, and it seems to be done through a mix of instinct and reasoning. The posts are pretty straightforward, so there's not a lot to parse, but the pushes on both Juckter and Haku yesterday would be pretty daring from a wolf. Irritated tone when pushed by MML and Xel today; that reads neutral to me. If psycho isn't town, then she's more likely to be SK than a wolf. A lot of the suspicion of psycho goes back to DBP, but it's hard to definitively read psycho because her posts are to the point: they say what they mean to say and nothing else. But I read more town than SK here for now. Precarious: Town. The people's champion. roundbox: Before I even iso, I'll say I'm left a little leery by how much his game has changed from Day 0 EoD. Roundbox won me to his side with his excellent end of D0, where he was very active, was making reads, and kind of saw the game the way I do in a philosophical sense. The problem is, he's been much more inactive since. People kind of busted on his "follow the vote" approach, but while I don't really have a problem with following the vote, he never really did anything with it. He looks better on iso than I expected, though, because even though his posts have become somewhat clipped, they're at least making assertions (well, the game-related ones are). I'm not sure if they're good assertions, but the activity isn't quite as bad as I had expected. I'd still like to see actual reads here, because I feel like he's been sort of coasting. I still read town, but I'm drifting in the direction of null. *** Bonus observation: #1575 looks hilarious in hindsight.

10-15-2016, 06:39 PM	#1955
Precarious Unacceptable Join Date: Mar 2014 Posts: 208	Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread I'm going to make dinner and watch football, but once I'm done cooking I'll just keep my laptop by me while I'm watching so I'll be able to work on my last isos.

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