TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

[Precarious]

Okay, Sporcle 2 billion has come and gone, time to focus on this.

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

As an aside


Someone tell me everyone's gender I really don't need to be thinking someone is a she when that's not really true kthx

I'm a guy. I'd also appreciate knowing this for everyone, as I keep awkwardly jumping back between he and they, and it kind of bothers me.

***

Regarding Xel's SK case against Psycho:

It's kind of tenuous. The problem is, it assumes that a serial killer will play super town as it's in their interest to do so, and that's not really the case. There's not a perfect way to play SK since it involves balancing different elements. Gradiant was killed on N1, and if I had to guess it was because of his town play--everyone was reading him as town, which would have presumably removed him from the pool of lynch candidates the next day. The SK will want to avoid suspicion during the day, while also not doing anything to attract attacks at night.

As for what the case says about Xel, I don't know. I've had trouble reading Xel all game, and posts like this--which contain a lot of stuff that seems strained to me--are part of the reason. An all out attack like this at this stage of the game, under these conditions, seems like a bad move for either the remaining wolf or the SK, so I end up reading Xel as town just from the commitment of it (plus Haku already turned red in my Haku-Xel dichotomy). But it's pretty obvious by now that Xel and I don't view this game the same way at all.

Originally Posted by MixMasterLar

psychoangel691 - Doesn't look like total garbage the further the game goes. As Pre pointed out, even if we assume that Psycho wanted to buss a partner for dem brownie points there's little reason to try and throw both of them to slaughter.
THAT SAID The DPB meta is strong with this one and I'll be shocked as shit if DPB turned out to be VT. That EoD on day one was a complete shitfest. While everyone could turn out to be the SK in this situation if I absolutely had to gutread someone as such it'll be Pyscho, although there is no way I believe they bussed two partners right out the gate. If so, then damn son.

I'll be shocked as shit if DPB/psycho turns out to be power role town, given that Gradiant flipped cop, Shado flipped vig, and Charu remains un-CCed. So I'm not sure what you're going for here. Psycho is either vanilla town or anti-town by simple logic, we're really out of other alternatives.

***

Updated reads on the way.

[Charu]

Originally Posted by danceflashrevo

How?

Where were you getting the impression that players wanted SK gone first?

[Charu]

Also, looking forward to more delicious reads, Mr. Suspicious!

I still trust you, but you must understand why I'm just the tiniest bit of leery of you at the moment. I'm constantly going back to early game and you still seem to check out well.

...Perhaps if the person in question that I'm thinking of is a miss, you'll be more of a candidate, hee hee hee

[roundbox]

Originally Posted by danceflashrevo

How?

Originally Posted by danceflashrevo

sry i'm laying down watching clemson have a stupid close game w/ nc state. xel's post is... long and this football game has my attention aorn. can someone explain to me the merit of going for SK now instead of wolf? or maybe since xel's the one going for sk he'd like to explain

This one asks "why is it OK to go for the SK now?"

Originally Posted by danceflashrevo

okay i read the thread and it makes sense i guess. i'm just having a hard time understanding the logic behind how to approach sk.

whaddya mean the question made no sense?

This one asks "how do we find the SK?"
unless I'm mistaken

I've been feeling more towny about you recently so this probably doesn't mean anything

[danceflashrevo]

Oh, well "approaching SK" just meant any theory/logic dealing with SK because as I said previously, I've never played with one, or been in the position to have to deal with one really if I have. And the impression that players wanted the SK gone was basically with Xel, iirc he said that he wanted the SK gone and out of the way, and then made the case on Psycho.

[roundbox]

I'm gonna be doing a VERY SLOW follow the vote right now

currently playing in a VIDEO GAME TOURNAMENT

pending results, I might be occupied but only for the next 1.5 hr

[XelNya]

Guess I'll wait for follow the vote again

[ShadoWolfe]

[Hakulyte]

[Charu]

Okay, for the briefest of fucking moment.

[Charu]

I thought the game ended.

Jesus christ, super late death posts. Fucking scared the living shit out of me.

[Charu]

And I just BET the dead fucks are laughing like little shits.

Oh yeah? WELL SQUAWK TO YOU TOO, BITCHES!!!

[Charu]

DON'T THIN I DON'T KNOW YOUR SHENANIGANS!!!

[XelNya]

I will admit they made me wtf a little lol

[roundbox]

guys I lost

[Precarious]

Zenith: Started out the day with several content posts, mixed in with a weird shit post. Has not posted anything in about 30 hours. His last post was the one I used to build a case as Zenith as SK. He has not responded to me, nor to anyone else. I know he's been on FFR generally because I saw he already AAAed the three new songs of the week which were released last night. While he may be having some issues with the forums yet (the pages still take a long time to load for me), his complete disappearance as soon as he was challenged feels like ducking the heat and hoping that we all get distracted by some other case. Fairly firm anti-town read, likely SK.

***
danceflashrevo: The case here remains clear. I'll go through it in detail (this will be long, so I'll put the other reads in my next post), because today only serves to reinforce the first part of it.

Stylistically, DFR's posts today (and all game in fact) are very similar to what I've seen in previous games from him. I don't have the meta knowledge some of you might, but in the short time I've been here I've seen some progression in DFR's play. Although it's somewhat laid back, town DFR does express opinions (even if diffidently) and is willing to pursue leads. This seemed to be how DFR started this game, which looked good, but it felt like DFR was content to sit back and less inclined to probe or opine as the game went on. Observationally and on gut, something felt wrong.

DFR's game came apart when I voted them (see post #1543). It's always a shock to the system when you're voted (particularly as a wolf), and DFR succumbed to the most basic of instincts, the counterattack. The problem was that said counterattack on me confirmed indisputable anti-town behavior by DFR.

Originally Posted by danceflashrevo

This leaves 3 wolves and an SK between:
haku - Still think town
zenith - Has had great insight to things, def town.
psychoangel - Null still.
precarious - I thought I would've seen more interaction between him and charu since charu is scum reading him. Maybe I missed it? Maybe precarious is trying to ignore it? You decide on FFR TWG CLIX!! <credits roll>
roundbox - I thought his push on me was kinda weak.
mml - I liked the botchi spot, MML hasn't shown as town as botchi due to hastiness and fallacies but I'd still town read.
xelnya - Still thought he's been town. I've liked his activity and tone.
juckter - I thought he was town, activity died down due to IRL stuff. Null aorn but he should be posting again soon tm.
mellon - Hasn't really contributed as much as I would've wanted yet. I thought I saw a deflection in one of her posts but I'm 99% sure I was wrong.

My not towns assuming juckter keeps my town after he starts posting: psychoangel, precarious, roundbox, mellon.

Aye that's 75% wuff fmpov.

Sorry this is low effort, I admit, but I have to work on calc hw.

This was a clear OMGUS push, including the needless sarcastic flourish ("You decide on FFR TWG CLIX!!"). The problem is, it was based on something completely removed from the actual game. At that time, Charu had been townreading me frequently and aggressively. This wasn't a simple misread; it had been a theme of just about all of Charu's gut reads/roster runs to that point. That suggests that DFR had not been actually following the thread at all. Now, that's somewhat understandable. People get busy. The games here move insanely fast. BUT rather than simply saying "I've been busy, I'll catch up" (as DFR has had no problem doing a bunch of other times in this thread), he instead chose to make a roster run that was not based on actual work/reads. This suggests he simply wanted to make reads in order to create the illusion of towniness, and combined with his accusation get the pressure of a vote off of him. But making reads based on nothing is anti-town, and given its implications, also dishonest.

(I'll also note that DFR town-read Haku and nulled a floundering Juckter, which will be pertinent in a moment).

EoD arrived yesterday and DFR seemed to be in trouble. There was a slightly town-leaning post when DFR posted this:

Originally Posted by danceflashrevo

I'm feeling the :01 bad on this one guys.

Okay so we have 12 people, I'm gonna die, 11. Still have 3 wolves and 1 sk.

wolfe's gonna use his vigi prolly and he's prolly gonna die so rip. sk's rando. So 10 people with wolfe's death leaves 3 wolves and 1 sk.

If wolfe makes a good shot, 9 w/ 3 antitown. bad is 9 with 4 antitown. sk gives 8 w/ 4, 3, or 2 antitown depending on what wolfe hits and what sk hits because the sk could hit a wolf.

A town player, when facing a mislynch, should try to leave some information behind, because the mislynch will at least clear them and show that they were acting in good faith. The information may or may not be correct, but at least we would know it's not deliberately deceptive. However, DFR still provides no reads. People think I post empty mechanics, but this post offers nothing that we couldn't have worked out ourselves. There are no reads, no real insights, no comments or observations on what led to this point. A wolf can do this too, after all; while it will be discredited with the flip, it's a good way to simulate towniness and perhaps push off the lynch.

As EoD continued and it became clear that DFR wasn't outright doomed, there were some weirdly prescient, defensive posts.

Originally Posted by danceflashrevo

what's funny is that if juckter dies and flips wolf then i'm probably gonna be pressured for town reading him all game. i love life

This is a somewhat odd concern, and seems to foreshadow Juckter's flip.

Then, right after Charu posted a suggestion to Shado to shoot Haku, DFR posted this:

Originally Posted by danceflashrevo

haku ur the one that took a shot at me and broke my heart don't u suck up to me now

This is the same DFR who had been townreading Haku fairly consistently. If a wolf DFR knew scummate Haku was going to be shot, then it's time to distance.

We also had Haku end up choosing Juckter over DFR, even though we now know that Juckter was a wolf. What was the benefit to the wolves? Haku was likely doomed by vig, so any cred for voting another wolf was meaningless. Had Haku voted a town DFR and then been shot, there was at least a chance Juckter could wiggle out of it. As it went down, two wolves were doomed for sure. The only payoff is if the suddenly distancing DFR could get clear of the carnage.

Now, move to today. Because wagon alternative Juckter flips red, much of the heat on DFR dissipates. And DFR goes back to doing what made me suspicious in the first place: nothing. There are still no reads, nor any posts meaningfully engaging in the game. There are occasional defenses when problems in DFR's profile are raised (see mellon's post #1841 and the conversation that follows). But now that people are townreading DFR to some degree, he is content to sit back. This is despite the fact that we have a wolf and an SK still out there. We have a reason to continue searching. Players interested more in personal survival than ferreting out anti-town look particularly bad now, because survival is at a special premium for both wolf and SK. Neither can die and still win the game.

To me, DFR profiles as a strong wolf read, stronger than when I initially voted them, stronger even than during EoD. Could I be wrong? Sure.

But I doubt it.

danceflashrevo

[roundbox]

posting the current living player list for my own sake

Zenith
dfr
Charu
psychoangel
Precarious
roundbox
MML
Xelnya
mellon

[_Zenith_]

I've been poking my head but I need to not be lazy and do my isolations

I've seen the heat and plan to acknowledge said heat, but again, lazy.

[Charu]

I don't think Zenith is the SK

[Charu]

But your dfr read is... very tastey