TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

[Precarious]

Two basic observations.

Up until this point, the game has largely revolved around four mostly isolated arguments: Gradiant-Freezin, Haku-Xel, DBP-myself, and inD-Shado. There hasn't been much cross-pollination between them, although there have been a couple little things scattered here and there. While I can't speak for FFR, elsewhere I've noticed that there usually only end up being one or two largescale D1 fights. I don't know if that's in any way significant here.

Unvote, by the way.

***

Originally Posted by roundbox

Keep in mind folks that one of your town reads is probably the SERIAL KILLER

This is the other point, and is worth reiterating (although it's more something to be kept in mind, because acting on it D1 doesn't make a lot of sense).

[inDheart]

Originally Posted by botchi246

this whole wagon thing.

it is consider hopping on a wagon if you are hoping to start a wagon. you do not have to vote for him, but your posts can indicate who you would be ok with lynching (lol ofc). Even if you are not attacking him, the previous sentence applies here. It really just depends on your intentions.

"Hey, guy #1 said stuff about this guy #2. I agree with guy #1, so i dont like #2." -jumpnig on wagon

"Hey, guy #1 said stuff about this guy #2. I agree with guy #1 but i dont want to judge #2 until i have made my own conclusions." -not jumping on the wagon

just examples ( i think they work)

so do you agree with freezin there? the second example is what i saw him as doing with haku

[Charu]

Originally Posted by Precarious

While I can't speak for FFR, elsewhere I've noticed that there usually only end up being one or two largescale D1 fights. I don't know if that's in any way significant here.

It's not common, but there have been games with the same amount of bicker. Just means this is a good D1 for once, hahaha.

[Precarious]

Originally Posted by mellonxcollie

I really don't like this post.

I agree that pure gut reads aren't very helpful *to other players* and that logic should be used in forming opinions.

But this is TWG. When you're a vanilla townie playing TWG, logic can only take you so far because you don't have any facts to back up the logic. All you have is what you *think* you know, AKA what your gut tells you is the most likely scenario.

The only people who can play TWG without their gut are the people who do not need to use it because they already know. aka the wolves

Robotic posts like your's don't actually really help. we can all figure the mechanics out on our own thank you. What helps is saying your personal opinions about things and your reads

I disagree strongly.

Let's say you have an 8 player game of six town and two wolves. We'll call the players ABCDEFGH. If A accuses B, saying "B looks like a wolf, C and D feel town" and nothing else, and all the other players respond in kind, there's no case being built, no rallying point for consensus or discussion, and no way to separate town posts from wolven ones. Anyone can say "So-and-so feels town to me" or "Player is a wolf." Wolves can say that too, in fact.

And while you argue from the one's own perspective rather than that of the group, there are two problems here. Gut reads are not fundamentally reliable. Until you can point out someone who can gut reads wolves all the time (or even a majority of the time, or hell, even a third of the time), you should be backing up your case with observational and mechanical evidence as best as possible, not just for the thread, but to challenge your own assumptions.

There's a really bad trend that just about everyone is guilty of (myself included) where there's a need to couch everything in extremely certain language so as not to look weak or undecided or deceptive. The problem is, if you're not constantly second guessing yourself, you're not being honest with yourself. That's why gut may be an okay place to start from, but once you start actually reading, you should be looking for reasons that support it. After all, TWG is A TEAM GAME. If your observations, however weird or off, prod other players down a productive path, then that has value.

As for mechanics, the stuff I've done so far is very superficial (and yet some people needed it apparently). But as the game progresses, it becomes more valuable as stuff like vote analysis can come into play. It's even more useful in particularly complicated games (although this one isn't). But you're arguing for an information vacuum of gut reads and nothing else, which is a wolf's dream scenario.

[botchi246]

Originally Posted by inDheart

so do you agree with freezin there? the second example is what i saw him as doing with haku

i agree that he wasnt trying to look like he was jumpin on a wagon. it also appears to me that he doesnt know haku at all, which can be its own obstacle

[XelNya]

Post is a bit of reread - > new content with an "as I go" to it

Originally Posted by Gradiant

you're not responding well or with reason for anything brought up, you're resorting to what I've quoted above

Goddamn is this post and the one above it super good.

Originally Posted by Gradiant

Oh I missed this, cool.
One question though, you have any thoughts on shado vs. freezin? Their convo was around where me and freezin was, and you've got me as most likely town and freezin as null town-lean. Is there something else that was bumping shado lower than both of us?

So good. But what's really worth talking about is that wolf lean on precarious. Like, let's be fair, a scum lean this early is fine, the issue is that there's not much to support it, and even further still if you look at this post he's got some more confident leans, but then his ONE scum lean is weak af.

Originally Posted by danceflashrevo

Can we stop ad hominem-ing? That's what I feel a lot of happening here. I think it's notable that gradient and freezin went back to each other, or freezin back to gradient imo. Idk, I still feel kinda v/v on that.

No, maybe, eh.

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

To be fair I have no problems admitting to mudslinging. I think it was pretty obvious to anyone reading what I wrote that I was engaged in it.

I don't think your back and forth with gradiant is mudslinging in anyway.

Originally Posted by Charu

Well, the exchange between you two sure as made one thing clear.

Either you're putting up a condescending tone to intimidate the other alpha and have everyone view you as someone not to take lightly or you genuinely think Gradiant's attacks on you are warranted to keep on using the "misquoted" defense.

Least that's what it looks like to me, dohoho.

I wouldn't even say this is completely the case. It just feels like freezin isn't good at reacting to pressure from someone who will literally hammer at it till you get pissed off and leave. I would say my LARGEST issue with freezin and jake is that ok sure maybe jake misquoted something, but simply dumbing that entire back and forth to "mudslinging" is fucking, what.

Originally Posted by Gradiant

~~~~~~



vvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvv

??

While thge use of an image here is interesting, I do need to go back and comb through this later. Not looking forward to it.

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

Responding to a point you made earlier Gradiant. You seemed to have a problem with me cooling off of shado one he unvoted me. Could you clarify exactly what the problem is? From my perspective, I turned on him for 2 reasons: to defend myself from what I felt was a fundamental misunderstanding of my positions, and to prove his reaction to my push back. After him backing off I briefly considered going after him for backing off too quickly, but the situation i would have pursued felt too WIFOM for my tastes. Having decided that and having no preconceived suspicions about him, reconciliation seemed like the narural choice

Do like the line of thought for this.

Originally Posted by Gradiant

I'm pointing out that you said I was mudslinging when I wasn't and that you did a shitload of what you were accusing me of, then I posted that quote list, you respond with yet another 'omg guys you're misquoting me' and ignoring what i was trying to bring up with more snarkiness about me. Now you're saying you have no problem at all with admitting to mudslinging.

So I was amused, and it also makes the responses to my multiquote list a bit confusing because there's no basis to calling them misquoted and your last response simply proved my point that you were ignoring.

Oh. Wrecked?

Originally Posted by Precarious

If Charu is town (and we've beaten that horse to death, but either he is or he'll be counterclaimed at some point), then a wolf is unlikely to be overly aggressive with him. Since he's the only person we know (so to speak) from a public perspective that must be town, he's the only person we can collectively be sure is acting in good faith, and thus his reads/accusations/opinions, while not necessarily correct, are at least being made without ulterior motives. Wolves will typically try to avoid fights they can't win, and so that snippet of conversation caught my attention.

The thing is, after giving myself time to cool down, I'm not sure why I saw it as so incriminating originally. The posts don't seem that tonally different--I can see what I saw initially, but I have to admit that it feels very overinflated here. I don't see, however, what people dislike about the rest of that particular post. It's hardly an airtight case, but it's D1, and it's not bad for D1. If it pressures DBR to actually say something, then hey, it's doing what he tried to do to me.

Of course, I still find this community's overmeta troubling; mechanical posts have purpose, and the reason I made them initially was because of people hedging around Charu's status. And that, for a variety of reasons, is a waste of time. If people think that's robotic, well, those robotic posts help. Similarly, I don't like unaccompanied gut reads, because your gut can be wrong, and that assumes you're acting in good faith. I want to see logic, however limited, accompanying reads.

Haku why you scum reading this man?

He's got good posts.

Though again, I'm ignoreing the charu point because as far as I am concerned anything pertaining to charu is useless conversatrion for now.

Originally Posted by juckter1

Uh, are you suggesting dbp is feigning activity? If I'm misinterpreting your post then that's fine, but I doubt he's trying to pretend to be active. Out of the iso you provided around half of the posts are shitposts and the remaining posts, even if they're short, are actually pushing on something and are actual content.

This just feels like you're trying to justify omgus for some reason

dbp feigning activity is pretty obvious and I think lynching him d0 is a bad move because on d1 it'll be super apperant where he's aligned unless he's the sk. Which means he has zero reason to feign activity because he needs to hunt wolves just like town does. Also fuck omgus as a reason.

Originally Posted by danceflashrevo

no u

No he's right, you lookin' like ass right now fren.

Originally Posted by Gradiant

Curious what post that was.
I'm also seeing another sudden change in attitude towards me, no longer extremely 'better than you' and snarky. I'm assuming it's because you realize I'm never going to think of you as less scummy if you continue to act that way for responses?

Pure fire here and even if you glance at the end of this conversation (at this juncture) it stands out pretty well.

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

btw, Shadow's read list also have something that greatly differ from mine:



Since you're here inDheart, maybe you have more input about this.

I don't think staying in background is alignment-indicative much, while it's true you shitposted a little, you looked very natural to me this game in general.

I personally didn't see anything different from your previous games where you rolled town so, I've thrown you in my town pile as well here.

I'm flabergasted that Haku made a good post like this. WHERE WAS THIS EARLY GAME FREN?! WHERE. SHOW ME WHERE.

Originally Posted by inDheart

taking a look at shado anyway; my hot take is he's done a lot of following rather than leading, like he's willing to push along other battles but not to be part of his own so much. for me that behavior trends more sociopathic, but what's throwing me off is i don't have a good bead on whether this is usually what he does in longer games.

But is following an indicator to you of a scum here and what do you mean by "sociopathic?"

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

LMAO
That actually sounds familiar, inDheart. Almost like you took my exact argument against you and tried to flip it. Want an example of me starting a battle? My read on you.

Not even gonna touch the sociopathic part or whether this is usually what I do, because your premise is totally flawed. Get wrecked, son.

Not sure I like this response because surely you know that starting ONE battle is not the saving grace here. Because compared to gradiant, yeah ok you started a small battle, but you may be following people everywhere else. But look at that follow up from gradiant.

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

inDheart
Contemplated this, still don't see anyone scummier.
Bye, Felicia.

No sorry, but he's not scummy compared to say Haku, or maybe even myself with the little activity going on.

Originally Posted by Charu

God damn, the amount of savagery in this game is pretty yummy.

Gettin' me to a point where I wanna join in the pile. BUT WHO TO PUSH

I'm not likin' freezin' nearly as much.
Loving gradiant
indheart lookin' good
wolfe lookin' a little less good
HAKU MADE A GOOD POST GUYS. LET'S TOTES TOWN - READ - yeah ok one good post let's follow that development
I wanna see more from packback so I can solidify my comfort on my read
Where did juckster go? :/

Originally Posted by Charu

Probably, EoD isn't Friday, right? If it's Saturday, that's perfect, because I'll be at work and Saturday shifts at the library are slow. I'll definitely be giving my thoughts then if that's the case.

Not throwing shade but you're not giving a solid line of thought I can follow as to why you'd wait to drop information.

Originally Posted by Charu

I would be careful if I were you, bucko. I may not have read in depth like you have in his posts, but boasting about finding a wolf, when there's really nothing to even use hard evidence on, is pretty damning for yourself.

I would know, when I'm wolfing, I usually tend to be super hyper aggressive when I find something I can use to drill my opponents.

...Or I just bus, hee hee hee.

Originally Posted by roundbox

this game just feels like incredible white noise
As tomorrow is Friday and I'm done with a shitload of work, I will be able to make SICK FUCKIN READS OF PEOPLE

Keep in mind folks that one of your town reads is probably the SERIAL KILLER

also I hosted mafia for my students today, that was pretty fun

Ayyyyyyyyyyyyyy charu gives you a shout out and here you arrrrrrrrrrrrrrrre

I ended up playing werewolf with a group of friends last weekend, and they let me wolf them all one by one. The seer slipped a check on me and got lynched for it. It was gross.

Originally Posted by roundbox

nah, more @Gradiant and @DaBackpack
Gradiant is definitely not scum sided this game from what I've seen of the tone of his posts.

Not just the tone but the flow of his play screams town. packback tho is worth considering I'll concede that atm.

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

Wait, was the point of this massive post, 90 minute ISO, and energy expended, all simply to tell me, "you look like a fool"? Because I see no mention of how any of this makes me look scummy..

Wow, talk about a wasted effort.

There is absolutely 0% chance you actually read the entirety of this post if this is your response because you could have just formatted a response instead of being an ass hole.

I dunno why you went the route you did with responding to this like, your follow up post is alright.

Originally Posted by mellonxcollie

I really don't like this post.

I agree that pure gut reads aren't very helpful *to other players* and that logic should be used in forming opinions.

But this is TWG. When you're a vanilla townie playing TWG, logic can only take you so far because you don't have any facts to back up the logic. All you have is what you *think* you know, AKA what your gut tells you is the most likely scenario.

The only people who can play TWG without their gut are the people who do not need to use it because they already know. aka the wolves

Robotic posts like your's don't actually really help. we can all figure the mechanics out on our own thank you. What helps is saying your personal opinions about things and your reads

HOLY FUCK

Originally Posted by botchi246

oh my lord, if i see another got damn post wall i am going to spontaneously explode!!! (i just tend to gloss over a lot if the posts are too damn long or the thread becomes long post after long post rip)

im still thinking that this gradiant freeze thing is a town vs. town. Gradiant is doing a sick job of countering freeze and explaining his reasons, which is protown. Freeze, even though i havent played with you before, I like how you are responding to gradiant, your tone is very town although at this point it feels like you both are beating a dead horse.

indheart vs. shado: i think that this could be a town vs. wolf(or sk possibly, who knows). I think that shado is getting some cabin fever with so few people actually active in this game and is lashing out through his posts ( is this true shado?). maybe he is just bored.


i feel like this post is important becuz it brings to light that shado is being pretty rude here to indheart on purpose. i want to side with indheart on that shado is building on a shaky foundation, but its d0 and thats to be expected.

also, again screw you charu, your first long post definitely set the tone and now there are so many dumb long posts. not that the content of the teh posts is dumb (well some XD), but the presence of them.

i do no think haku is a wolf this time around, he doesnt seem to be destroying himself as much as usual, and thats usually protown imo.

i know that there are a lot of names missing from this list, but if your name is not on here, you are null for lack of posts or null for lack of content

1. I'm not sorry. My need to post walls is overwhelming.
2. Gradiant and freez could easily be t / w. Unlike you, I'm not quite as fond of freeze's responses. (if that's not obvious by now?)
3. If Haku's meta as scum is to destory himself, and he's not "doing it as much as usual" isn't it more just a case of he's not making his tell as apperant? Like did you FUCKING READ THE EARLY GAME?

Originally Posted by Charu

Now THIS is kind of concerning.

It's never pointless with the way players have been going at it. You got Freeze vs Gradiant, Backpack vs Pre, Shadowolfe vs inDheart. All of wish are positng gigantic posts with lots of words because they feel they need to yell back hard.

These little "pointless" arguments will be a catalyst for future phases. So don't be saying it is pointless, missy!!

It's been a game where people are just going right for the first fight. It's throwing me off a little to be frank. I like it.

Originally Posted by inDheart

i think gradiant is being incredibly town

a little disappointed aryxi hasn't made it back, maybe he got hammered with something irl but it's getting to be a little much if he actually is free

botchi saying he's not a wolf at the start is a bit odd but you can tell he's been reading, and the input he's given seems pure

dbp still looks pretty towny and is falling into his usual sentiments of not wanting to bust his head on confusing posts

prec up to now had been very neutral toned but i don't understand his dbp vote for low content; he hadn't shown much of a wish up to then of being personally investigative even though that's the kind of content he calls for from dbp

i don't think we've gotten a real xel wall yet i'm almost disappointed, but i am thinking well of you right now because i see the usual you here otherwise

juckter is oh man birds. dude hasn't done so much realtime interacting but i think that's mainly because of the timing; otherwise i see him commenting on the difficulty of the game/him being bad quite a bit, plus shitposting. does he tend not to be an active voice?

i like mellon quite a bit for being detail oriented

I didn't see this before going to make this. I literally woke up and was like "should catch up."

Originally Posted by danceflashrevo

i town read aj

I think. You're wrong. Rest of the recent posts are zzzz and I don't feel like doing them.

[FreezinIce]

Originally Posted by mellonxcollie

especially when it seems you need to twist my words in order to make your points.

I remember saying something similar earlier about Gradiant...

[mellonxcollie]

HI FREEZIN do you like my new av? nobody would have seen it on ffya, heh

[XelNya]

Originally Posted by mellonxcollie

HI FREEZIN do you like my new av? nobody would have seen it on ffya, heh

Your new avi is shit

[mellonxcollie]

Originally Posted by Precarious

But you're arguing for an information vacuum of gut reads and nothing else, which is a wolf's dream scenario.

That just didn't happen

Originally Posted by mellonxcollie

I agree that pure gut reads aren't very helpful *to other players* and that logic should be used in forming opinions.

[mellonxcollie]

Originally Posted by XelNya

Your new avi is shit

most savage player this game

[FreezinIce]

Originally Posted by mellonxcollie

HI FREEZIN do you like my new av? nobody would have seen it on ffya, heh

I do like it!

I saw it and immediately appriciated its significance

[Hakulyte]

Originally Posted by XelNya

So good. But what's really worth talking about is that wolf lean on precarious. Like, let's be fair, a scum lean this early is fine, the issue is that there's not much to support it, and even further still if you look at this post he's got some more confident leans, but then his ONE scum lean is weak af.

I made this read list with the goal of investigating players further and hopefully get better content/support for making clear decisions. That Null "wolf-lean" is just hinting that I agree with DaBackPack about thinking that Precarious haven't made enough human-looking posts and is possibly yet again hiding behind "raw commentary". I'm not saying "omg we should lynch him", I'm just hinting that if he keeps following that pattern, he's unlikely to make me town-read him. Precarious if you read this, it's very simple, you can keep doing theory posts, but you should also explain "YOUR" stance, not every possible stances.

Here's an example:

Originally Posted by Precarious

I disagree strongly.

Let's say you have an 8 player game of six town and two wolves. We'll call the players ABCDEFGH. If A accuses B, saying "B looks like a wolf, C and D feel town" and nothing else, and all the other players respond in kind, there's no case being built, no rallying point for consensus or discussion, and no way to separate town posts from wolven ones. Anyone can say "So-and-so feels town to me" or "Player is a wolf." Wolves can say that too, in fact.

And while you argue from the one's own perspective rather than that of the group, there are two problems here. Gut reads are not fundamentally reliable. Until you can point out someone who can gut reads wolves all the time (or even a majority of the time, or hell, even a third of the time), you should be backing up your case with observational and mechanical evidence as best as possible, not just for the thread, but to challenge your own assumptions.

There's a really bad trend that just about everyone is guilty of (myself included) where there's a need to couch everything in extremely certain language so as not to look weak or undecided or deceptive. The problem is, if you're not constantly second guessing yourself, you're not being honest with yourself. That's why gut may be an okay place to start from, but once you start actually reading, you should be looking for reasons that support it. After all, TWG is A TEAM GAME. If your observations, however weird or off, prod other players down a productive path, then that has value.

As for mechanics, the stuff I've done so far is very superficial (and yet some people needed it apparently). But as the game progresses, it becomes more valuable as stuff like vote analysis can come into play. It's even more useful in particularly complicated games (although this one isn't). But you're arguing for an information vacuum of gut reads and nothing else, which is a wolf's dream scenario.

Your stance here is: "I disagree strongly". Good! Why?

Let's say you have an 8 player game of six town and two wolves. We'll call the players ABCDEFGH. If A accuses B, saying "B looks like a wolf, C and D feel town" and nothing else, and all the other players respond in kind, there's no case being built, no rallying point for consensus or discussion, and no way to separate town posts from wolven ones. Anyone can say "So-and-so feels town to me" or "Player is a wolf." Wolves can say that too, in fact.

Yes, yes that makes sense, but what do "YOU" think?

And while you argue from the one's own perspective rather than that of the group, there are two problems here. Gut reads are not fundamentally reliable. Until you can point out someone who can gut reads wolves all the time (or even a majority of the time, or hell, even a third of the time), you should be backing up your case with observational and mechanical evidence as best as possible, not just for the thread, but to challenge your own assumptions.

Yes, yes that makes sense, but what do "YOU" think?

There's a really bad trend that just about everyone is guilty of (myself included) where there's a need to couch everything in extremely certain language so as not to look weak or undecided or deceptive. The problem is, if you're not constantly second guessing yourself, you're not being honest with yourself. That's why gut may be an okay place to start from, but once you start actually reading, you should be looking for reasons that support it. After all, TWG is A TEAM GAME. If your observations, however weird or off, prod other players down a productive path, then that has value.

Yes, yes that makes sense, but what do "YOU" think?

As for mechanics, the stuff I've done so far is very superficial (and yet some people needed it apparently). But as the game progresses, it becomes more valuable as stuff like vote analysis can come into play. It's even more useful in particularly complicated games (although this one isn't). But you're arguing for an information vacuum of gut reads and nothing else, which is a wolf's dream scenario.

I mean, if you don't see the pattern about him not telling what he actually think by now, I don't know what to tell you.

Haku why you scum reading this man?

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

I'm flabergasted that Haku made a good post like this. WHERE WAS THIS EARLY GAME FREN?! WHERE. SHOW ME WHERE.

I can't make meaningful posts without gathering a minimal of content. Interactions needed to happen regardless of how it makes me look like. My early shitposting is me trying to generate content. It didn't go at all like planned. I didn't think ahead about my own posts and it made me look bad. I was slightly irritated at myself and kept saying sarcastic misplaced things that you can probably find easily if you ISO me. I decided to stop that after realizing how everyone seems actually serious about this game already and went back to trying to solve the game.

No sorry, but he's not scummy compared to say Haku, or maybe even myself with the little activity going on.

Build me a case if you want.

3. If Haku's meta as scum is to destory himself, and he's not "doing it as much as usual" isn't it more just a case of he's not making his tell as apperant? Like did you FUCKING READ THE EARLY GAME?

I played enough games to realize that I can't destroy myself forever. I thought I could mess around because of the "shitposting" part of Day 1, but yeah, it didn't help me much.

[Hakulyte]

Also, I forgot to mention it, but inDheart vs ShadoWolfe looks like TvT to me.

There was a misunderstanding and it's been mostly clarified from what I've read.

Well, at least that's my conclusion from the "FreezinIce vs ShadoWolfe" issue.

[XelNya]

Originally Posted by mellonxcollie

most savage player this game

I'm the only one in this game who has an infraction for liking something. I've been the most savage by fucking default for a while. Also as I was scrolling down I scrolled past my post and was like "oh who the fuck posted a long ass post now." It was me. I had a feeling of dread over scrolling past my own post.

[XelNya]

Originally Posted by Hakulyte

I played enough games to realize that I can't destroy myself forever. I thought I could mess around because of the "shitposting" part of Day 1, but yeah, it didn't help me much.

No see, I'm using the fact that he's saying one thing but is like "oh it's not that bad, guess he's town" as a way of saying his statement is fucking garbage. If his meta-read of you is to see how much you self destruct to lean you one way or the other, but then he says "oh he's not imploding nearly as bad as last time" it's a serious what the actual fuck, because fact is, you still had the worst entrance and early part of D0.

[XelNya]

Like seriously, I am fucking astounded I'm the only one nit picking that. That's some stupid shit right there.

[ShadoWolfe]

Originally Posted by XelNya

I'm the only one in this game who has an infraction for liking something. I've been the most savage by fucking default for a while. Also as I was scrolling down I scrolled past my post and was like "oh who the fuck posted a long ass post now." It was me. I had a feeling of dread over scrolling past my own post.

I loled.

[XelNya]

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

I loled.

You lol now, but just you wait wolfe I'mma get you

[mellonxcollie]

Originally Posted by Precarious

Gut reads are not fundamentally reliable.

"Logic" is not fundamentally reliable either unless people's roles have been confirmed. *Nothing* is reliable in this game because all of our "facts" are usually assumption based at best. or we have extremely incomplete information with only a few confirmed roles (often of dead players).

Until you can point out someone who can gut reads wolves all the time (or even a majority of the time, or hell, even a third of the time), you should be backing up your case with observational and mechanical evidence as best as possible, not just for the thread, but to challenge your own assumptions.

Care to point out one person who can consistently read wolves based on observational and mechanical evidence on D0?