TWG CXLV: A Bad Joke - The 10th Edition - Game Thread

[roundbox]

Zenith, if you're wondering why you didn't get iced, it's the "boy who cried wolf" phenomenon.

You use the same strategy in nearly every game. At some point, people begin to pass this off as typical banter and your softing is nothing more than a natural part of your play regardless of alignment.

[roundbox]

Looking at the setup, we can narrow down some scenarios from the double flip.

Xiz's death confirms there is at least one R in the setup. The scenarios in which a role cop can appear is R, RRR, or RRRR. Given the fact that R is the letter that is least likely to be pulled (5% chance), I would argue that a singular R is our pull here. Xiz's death also confirms that the setup is also ABSOLUTELY NOT TTTTTTT.

DaBackpack's flip guarantees the setup IS ABSOLUTELY NOT TTTT or TTT, as neither of those contain bus drivers.

Two people dying in the night confirms the existence of at least two killing powers in the night. This means setup TTTTTT cannot exist since two kills means a Serial Killer exists or a Vigilante exists, both of which cannot exist in this pull.

So this leaves this possible list of T pulls:

TTTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Serial Killer
TT = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Mafia JOAT
T = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Mafia JOAT, Serial Killer
0 Ts = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Mafia JOAT

Based on the fact we have Zenith softing over here, I wonder if our setup is truly TTTTT.

[roundbox]

I see you lurkin' there danceguy

[_Zenith_]

Originally Posted by roundbox

Zenith, if you're wondering why you didn't get iced, it's the "boy who cried wolf" phenomenon.

You use the same strategy in nearly every game. At some point, people begin to pass this off as typical banter and your softing is nothing more than a natural part of your play regardless of alignment.

oh, cool

[_Zenith_]

Originally Posted by _Zenith_

oh, cool

I'll make a note that whenever I decide to play and roll wolf that I can copypasta my playing habits and get away with it

[dAnceguy117]

Originally Posted by roundbox

I see you lurkin' there danceguy

Its called catching up on 4 pages, reading is hard!!!! But not for me, I read at a 7th grade level

[dAnceguy117]

Rzr I'm interested in seeing you post something that isn't about either mechanics or botchi's play

[dAnceguy117]

Starting to feel like fg might be out of her wolf range

[roundbox]

Originally Posted by roundbox

Based on the fact we have Zenith softing over here, I wonder if our setup is truly TTTTT.

Following up on this: Zenith, stop being a cocktease and just claim. If you really want people to believe you on your soft, come forward with something.

Originally Posted by _Zenith_

cool, wrong direction, but good attitude

This thought post here confirms you think you'll be useful alive, so I'm really curious about your role considering yesterday you were fine with being in the lynch pool.

Thoughts on other players:

Dabackpack (yes, I know he's dead) chasing after storn makes sense now that I really think about it. This sense of urgency to snipe the SK really put him in the spotlight. Something tells me his pursuit of storn might have garnered the support of one of the wolf team on the storn wagon. Spoilers: I'm not one of them.

Red Blaster's posting activity confirms to me that he is not a wolf this game. As other people have been guessing, he could very well be a SK this game. It does fall a little bit into my statement earlier about Red Blaster

j-rodd's detachment from this game tells me he's a vanilla townie or a really lazy wolf. Nothing about him cries wolf to me, so I'm dropping him in my town pile.

Charu is most likely town here. This is a meta read of him, by the way.

V is reminding me of the C9++ where he was a vigi and sniped manti as a wolf night one. This time, his sights are on danceguy. Based on the fact that danceguy is still standing, there's no way V has killing power unless DaBackpack bus-drivered V/someone else. Based on V's posts like this:

Originally Posted by Vendetta21

i figured you were the serial killer. nioce shot on dbp bro

I think he's just a little ol' vanilla town.

I get it that it's Christmas season and people are busy, but I'm still getting bad vibes from rzr here. Check out this post:

Originally Posted by rzr

There is no possibility of only 2 wolves total - I should have known that w/o looking, which makes my prior point moot anyway. I agree it's more-than-likely there is an SK over a vig - but I'm not sure yet obviously.

My thoughts:

http://i.imgur.com/w6srCW7.jpg

Sorry bro, there is a possibility of only two wolves total. Setup TTTTT has only two wolves and can easily fit our scenario quite well. The only reasons someone would jump to this conclusion is if: they have extra information (wolf crew having the most, PR having a little more but would need a little bit of deduction based on their role) and/or they didn't read the setup fully.


Looking at the storn wagon, we have the following people: DaBackpack (wolf), Zenith (probably human), Charu (probably human), roundbox (wew lad), and T-Force. T-Force is the only one on here from my perspective that could fit the bill of being a wolf. Let's look at the circumstances:

T-Force had been riding dAnceguy's wagon all day, but it was a self-admitted joke safety. DaBackpack presented some strong evidence against storn, and T-Force jumped on it about 50 minutes before EoD. Thinking about it, I don't think T-Force is a wolf here. I too was brought in by DaBackpack's evidence and did the same thing. We both reacted to his evidence with praise so something tells me we are in the same situation. A "path to the vote" mindmeld, if you will.

This leaves two people left on my list (feeling lazy now after typing this post): dAnceguy and fg. I've always been awful at reading fg, so when I do eventually go back and look, it'll be interesting. V's focus on dAnceguy (as mentioned earlier) puts dAnceguy in a bad light due to previous experiences with V, but I have yet to play a non-live game with dAnceguy, so evaluating him here will be a fresh and new experience.

[roundbox]

Originally Posted by roundbox

My thoughts:

http://i.imgur.com/w6srCW7.jpg

nice I forgot img tags

[_Zenith_]

I am useful even after I die from a nightkill :^ )

[rzr]

Originally Posted by dAnceguy117

Rzr I'm interested in seeing you post something that isn't about either mechanics or botchi's play

I have posted several times my thoughts on Charu. If today wasn't so busy at work I'd have had a reads list drafted up by now. I'm not doing this tonight - it's been a long tiring day. I have a lot to say though, so I will have it by the morning. I think there's too much cluttered logic being tossed around ITT and that's detracting from being able to read the thread effectively.
For example, I don't know why Dance is a target, or Funny, or T Force, or Jrodd. I see their names posted in regards to lynching them - but there isn't much to work with, just people resurfacing moot points.

[roundbox]

Originally Posted by _Zenith_

I am useful even after I die from a nightkill :^ )

[roundbox]

zenith stop being a hindrance to the game please

[_Zenith_]

What precisely am I hindering though? I don't think I've actively participated in a formal discussion for what town should do this phase other than the two people that I think are fine lynch candidates for the phase.

You asked me to claim and I believe I answered to the one role that can only have that scenario happen that exists in this setup.

[_Zenith_]

Originally Posted by roundbox

zenith stop being a hindrance to the game please

It seems you're getting uptight to the point where you are too fixated on me despite recently posting a reads list.

Why don't you go along and find a case against RB that pins him as the SK, or better yet announce your held-back T-Force read?

[roundbox]

Originally Posted by _Zenith_

It seems you're getting uptight to the point where you are too fixated on me despite recently posting a reads list.

Why don't you go along and find a case against RB that pins him as the SK, or better yet announce your held-back T-Force read?

Few reasons:

I don't really have a held-back read on T-Force. I don't have a case against RB that pins him as an SK either.

Looking at the roles for this game:
Tracker - can't post results on death
Doctor - useless after death
Jailkeeper - useless after death
Hider - we have no way to confirm your hiding place was where you went, and it doesn't make sense you would be this if you were asking "why didn't I die" considering the answer would be "because you hid somewhere that wasn't targeted"
Commuter - useless after death
Vengeful - you have to be lynched to be useful
Vigi - useless after death
Cop - useless after death
Gunsmith - useless after death

Either you're a hider or you have really strange views on how these roles could operate beneficially to town after death

[roundbox]

Look at it this way Zenith: the more we know about the setup, the more we can trap wolves and solve the game. It's as simple as that.

[_Zenith_]

Originally Posted by roundbox

Few reasons:

I don't really have a held-back read on T-Force. I don't have a case against RB that pins him as an SK either.

Looking at the roles for this game:
Tracker - can't post results on death
Doctor - useless after death
Jailkeeper - useless after death
Hider - we have no way to confirm your hiding place was where you went, and it doesn't make sense you would be this if you were asking "why didn't I die" considering the answer would be "because you hid somewhere that wasn't targeted"
Commuter - useless after death
Vengeful - you have to be lynched to be useful
Vigi - useless after death
Cop - useless after death
Gunsmith - useless after death

Either you're a hider or you have really strange views on how these roles could operate beneficially to town after death

one of these are wrong and yes I was being cryptic but I guess I'll have to stop eh?

specifically one of these roles is still useful (depending on a certain situation) for one entire phase after death.

[dAnceguy117]

Is it just me or are you saying you're a gunsmith, while showing that you have 0 understanding of what a gunsmith actually means in this setup?