TWG CXXXIII: Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

[roundbox]

Originally Posted by storn42

i know this is going to sound like im tunneling on this idea but look at this list of players
cold Kitten, Charu, DaBackpac, Lightknight924 (V), reuben_tate
all of them didn't vote. well 2 of them are dead and that leaves dbp and charu dead. whats left is V, ben, and CK. lets assume CK is a VT for this experiment. that leaves V and ben. ben has been read red (lol read red, damn! why cant this be red blaster. "Red has been read red" anywas...) by a few people so for this experiments lets say thats 1 woof down. if V is a woof that is 2, but V has been pretty town right now so i'll let it slide. 2 woof votes unavailible. that means that only two woofs are around to vote. one could be on dbp and one elsewhere, or they could both be on CK.

Originally Posted by storn42

i think that means ben is a woof then wouldn't it unless you would like to suggest that choof or red is a woof.

Originally Posted by storn42

(i know this will sound REALLY strange and out of character from my last 50 posts but....) we dont know that Plop is a woof. i'm trying to think of all the scenarios where the woofs dont kill CK and let a woof die D0. it seems most logical that one of them would be not voting for this to happen (with the past experiment done) i'm willing to bet that ben is that woof that didn't make it happen (he's been lacking in a lot of posts. i would make sense that he's lacking on the woof side of posting as well, which would also mean that he's not helping his partners and isn't there to cast the vote they need) idk.. i feel that if ben flips red, its very likely that plop is also red.

fuck this I'm done analyzing for today
playing like shit this phase
storn

[j-rodd123]

Votes from post 785 to post 1240
Night in 2:30:03
---

• Votes -- Lynch -- Voters
• 4 -- reuben_tate -- Jtehanonymous (15), storn42 (39), Funnygurl555 (14), Cold Kitten (15)
• 2 -- MrPopadopalis25 -- Vendetta21 (88), thesunfan (45)
• 2 -- Jtehanonymous -- Jub3r7 (11), MrPopadopalis25 (35)
• 1 -- Funnygurl555 -- choof (35)
• 1 -- storn42 -- roundbox (54)
• 1 -- unvote -- Red Blaster (61)
• 2 -- not voting -- psychoangel691 (31), reuben_tate (3)

[Vendetta21]

Originally Posted by MrPopadopalis25

He was universally scum and neutral read, not just scum. I can't think of a single person who read him town. And it's with multiple experiences, notably the last game we had (132) as well as his statement here:

So how does that make you feel about my statement that it was fucking incredible that we lynched a wolf without significant counter push AND the apparent lack of wolves moving towards CK to save DBP? Doesn't this indicate something that is more significant than any toneread?

[Vendetta21]

Originally Posted by Funnygurl555

Also inclined to believe plop. DBP did just play his normal wolf game this game so if he were any type of wolf it's more likely he's takedown

This is objectively false.

[Vendetta21]

Also plop you state dap was universally scumread and a neutral read, which is strange given that your intuition about him being the takedown wolf would require more than neutrally reading him in your thought process.

[Vendetta21]

If anyone is wondering why I'm still suspicious of plop despite our civil discourse and his complete answers to my questions, you should know that me and plop have had scenarios like this twice before that looked very identical, once when we were w/w and once when we were v/v, so tonereading the situation is not good play.

[Vendetta21]

Originally Posted by Jtehanonymous

Based on the wagon for dbp from day 1, I also strongly feel there weren't that many wolves on the wagon (if any!) Obvious reasons because that dbp would've nuked any of the wolves that decided to hang on, so realistically, wolves would've hopped on very early if at all. However, there is just no convincing myself that people on the wagon early are even scum for me, so from there, jumping to the inactives, POE points to Reuben once again as a very good choice for a lynch this phase.

I follow this, but you also have to consider the inverse which is that if there were no wolves on the wagon then why did DBP die instead of CK? 2 people on the DBP wagon expressed a willingness to move their vote to CK. The only good answers to this question I have is wolf inactivity, which does indicate Reuben but wouldn't that equally indicate anyone already on the CK lynch since it was the second highest potential lynch based on the consensus in the thread? It would suggest a wolf team of psycho, plop, and Reuben, and would probably suggest plop more than anyone else.

The absolute most important factor to consider if there were no wolves on the DBP wagon is what did anyone try to do to stop or shift away from the DBP wagon? Why would the wolves just let their guy die D1 without trying to do something about it?

[Jtehanonymous]

Originally Posted by Vendetta21

The absolute most important factor to consider if there were no wolves on the DBP wagon is what did anyone try to do to stop or shift away from the DBP wagon? Why would the wolves just let their guy die D1 without trying to do something about it?

Along with inactivity, the takedown wolf *would* be the wolf to just leave alone and "let their guy die D1", because if dbp is inactive, that's at least *some* utility that the remaining wolves are going to get out of dbp's behavior once he's lynched and has taken a townie with him.

I do struggle with the fact that even with this in mind, they still opted to allow events to run their course and have the takedown wolf's ability used at a very statistically unlikely chance of even hitting a power role with the takedown ability. There were 8 townies at that point and again, this maybe points back to a bit of inactivity in the ranks since nothing was coordinated against this.

I wouldn't attribute it to a lack of experience at all because 1) Wolves used roleblocking and killing roles in conjunction to avoid the mirror coat 2) They nailed a PR.

[Vendetta21]

Atta boy

[roundbox]

jteh promoted to town

[Vendetta21]

What do you think of CK's super long post after the flip? I had already suspected human but this post at this time made me feel like putting him/her at confirmed town for day 2.

[Vendetta21]

Originally Posted by MrPopadopalis25

I'm not sure what you mean by "more significant than any toneread."

Well, who is your top suspicion?

[Jtehanonymous]

Originally Posted by Vendetta21

What do you think of CK's super long post after the flip? I had already suspected human but this post at this time made me feel like putting him/her at confirmed town for day 2.

This post: http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/...&postcount=751

Even before that post, it was hard for me to see CK as anything else but town after the flip. For the wolves to be in a situation where they are forced to choose between TWO wolves (assuming for a second that CK is a wolf too) seems extremely unlikely, almost a bit hilarious. I feel the wolves would've actively dug themselves in an even deeper hole somehow if it were truly the case that they were waffling between two wolves.

But after reading that post (and re-reading it just now) I feel slightly better about CK being a human who, through a series of serendipitous events, managed to work her way out of dying. (And wasn't consistently present in the thread to defend herself in the first place)

Should I go back and pick apart her post even more? Yeah, probably. But the scenario where they are both wolves seems unrealistic to me. I almost feel like that post had a bit of a new life to her game/motivation that I'd *hope* is a towny say, "Yes~ okay now let me go in"

[Jtehanonymous]

Originally Posted by MrPopadopalis25

Tie between jteh and storn.

What are your thoughts on Reuben still not being here at all to add anything? By now, he's even more "minimally posting" than I am. Where on the spectrum do you read him right now?

[Vendetta21]

Originally Posted by MrPopadopalis25

The effort definitely earns her townie points, and most of the reads are relatively sound in comparison to the rest of the thread's opinion. Although I disagree with her scumreads on psycho, round, and myself (which makes 3/4 of her wolf leans), if I isolated that post and that post alone I'd say she's likely town. However, the rest of her play outside of that post mitigates that read and puts her in null. Why do you think she's town, outside of the reads post?

It's isolated to the reads post alone. I've questioned that a few times but still feel okay about the decision to act as though she was town this phase.

[Vendetta21]

Has storn been a wolf on FFR at all?

[Vendetta21]

I can see your line of thinking there. I'm interested to read a storn wolf game at the moment if anyone can help me out.

[Jtehanonymous]

I know I participated in one with him where he was a wolf... I think it was called flash squadron or something!

[Jtehanonymous]

T-force hosted it too. I'll try to find it.

[Jtehanonymous]

I apologize, he was actually a town in that game: http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/...light=Squadron