TWG CXXXIII: Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

[Vendetta21]

I still just don't fucking understand what voting pattern in the thread up to that point would have suggested that DBP was the takedown wolf

[Vendetta21]

Well, I mean, except for plop's voting pattern

[Vendetta21]

Am I literally the only person who gives a shit about this? Am I missing some sort of critical moment in the thread that makes sense of this?

[roundbox]

Originally Posted by roundbox

I have a feeling I'll be hit with one of the wolf night actions tonight, and I'll either be a mute or a dead body. Personally, one would make more sense than the other.

Here's my (hopefully not) last thoughts.

Plop's situation is a trick one to dissect. There are a few scenarios to look at and consider before we instantly crucify him tomorrow. These scenarios are if A) The wolves know who their power roles are, or B) The wolves only know their partners, and not their power roles, C) Plop made a crazy guess.

Let's look at situation A. Assuming plop is a wolf, hinting that DBP might be the takedown is good for the wolves in small ways. One, it can scare off potential voters, and two, it helps in his case of setting up a mislynch (his candidate was CK). While this may sound fine and dandy, what would the purpose be of getting him outed so early to the wolves? If anything, the longer the wolves are alive the better to seek parity. Outing him like this is completely baffling and idiotic from the wolf perspective. Why make town parity that much harder? Yes, they do take out a village, but the percentage of wolf:town drops to 21.4%.
Not only that, but their chances of hitting a town PR is also statistically low. Risky and dumb move.
For these reasons, I feel the cons outweigh the pros for situation A.

Okay, how about situation B. Assuming plop is a wolf and didn't know of other wolf roles, this would be also plainly moronic to try and name it. Why would a wolf try to ping out other wolf PRs on day0? Was he trying to get a reaction from other wolves to see if they would confirm it? Was the initial call about DBP possibly being a takedown the call? DBP was sure as hell not going to with his inactivity, so maybe he was aiming for another wolf to answer? I wonder...



Does this quote mean anything? Is storn confirming he's NOT the takedown? This is an interesting thing to consider, but I wouldn't convict storn solely off of this. However, this is something to ponder in the coming phases depending on flips and cop results.
Did plop+other wolves see DBP as getting nuked for sure this phase? It's hard to tell. If I were in wolf shoes, I wouldn't risk losing a wolf in the first phase for reasons listed at the end of situation A. It just seems strange wolves would bus him so fast.
I feel like this is more probable than situation A, but I'm not saying this is what happened.

And situation C, plop just got a lucky guess. Considering the DBP wolf meta, inactivity seems to be the bread and butter. It's a shitty brand of butter, but hell, it was enough to incriminate him this game. There was a 25% chance he got the role right, but why would he select take down in particular? Yes, it comes with a death backlash, but the town objective is just to kill a wolf SOLELY based on wolf activity. Why was take down even a factor? What if DBP was roleblocker, and plop said "What if he was the roleblocker?" This just doesn't have the same effect.
At the same time, would plop really willingly put himself in a situation like this? It's a seriously clairvoyant far cry to peg not only the wolf but the role as well. This is not impossible, so shrugging off this possibility would be senseless.
This is practically on equal footing with situation B.

I tried to make sense of the situation here. I know you argued that busing the takedown early and hitting a village is a probable bus, so the situation B might stand out more to you.

[Vendetta21]

You don't believe any wolves might have distance voted DBP?

[Red Blaster]

Originally Posted by Vendetta21

I still just don't fucking understand what voting pattern in the thread up to that point would have suggested that DBP was the takedown wolf

My thing is, if Plop was a wolf he could've, most likely would've, said nothing and voted elsewhere. Why would wolf plop announce his partners role? Also didn't someone bring it up before plop? I swear choof brought it up sarcastically but I could be wrong.

Idk it just doesn't make sense for Plop to bring up his partners role in my mind.

Or am I missing something else here?

[roundbox]

Storn is the only one I felt could have distance voted in that pool.

[roundbox]

In this long-winded post:
http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/...&postcount=919

[Vendetta21]

Plop brought it up first.

If wolves don't know each other's roles and are caught up in a lynch where they are distance voting, (i.e. The lynch is probably going to happen) they would like to try to vote their partner. Cautioning your team mates would be important.

If there were 5 votes on the lynch, the fourth vote was wolf, and a town switched to a null the wolf dies. If a dumb wolf busses DBP without thinking about how he was the takedown you again lose two wolves.

There might have been a real need to caution especially if a wolf had mistakenly gone hard on DBP to distance earlier in the phase thinking the DBP lynch wouldn't happen and would look bad for wavering, and it was clear that they couldn't pile their three votes on a town to escape the lynch. The take-down wolf introduces a great deal of potential risk and fucking up in that situation would cost you the game, if you are in the situation where you are about to lose DBP (the one that actually happened) you're obviously going to consider damage control in order to make sure a bad situation doesn't become worse.

[storn42]

Originally Posted by Vendetta21

What a fascinating non-sequitur musing! Why didn't you wonder it about CK who you ended up voting at phase end??

can i wonder? can i wonder? can i wonder? I wonder if CK is the........

CONFUSIONIST!!!

HA! lets see that one be right :P

[roundbox]

Originally Posted by Vendetta21

There might have been a real need to caution especially if a wolf had mistakenly gone hard on DBP to distance earlier in the phase thinking the DBP lynch wouldn't happen and would look bad for wavering, and it was clear that they couldn't pile their three votes on a town to escape the lynch. The take-down wolf introduces a great deal of potential risk and fucking up in that situation would cost you the game, if you are in the situation where you are about to lose DBP (the one that actually happened) you're obviously going to consider damage control in order to make sure a bad situation doesn't become worse.

I pointed out this following quote. I know plop brought it up first, but this may be construed to storn possibly saying "I'm not the takedown so don't bus with me". Possibly.

Originally Posted by storn42

inb4 someone ninja's off dbp to avoid death

[Vendetta21]

Originally Posted by roundbox

Storn is the only one I felt could have distance voted in that pool.

Honestly red blaster and choof could have too. If there wasn't a wolf stuck on the wagon then why the fuck did he die?

[storn42]

Originally Posted by Vendetta21

Honestly red blaster and choof could have too. If there wasn't a wolf stuck on the wagon then why the fuck did he die?

inactive woofs? 5 people (1/3 of the game) had no votes that day. one of them was dbp. i wouldn't be surprised if 2 or even 3 of the woofs were all inactive and just didn't vote.

[roundbox]

True. Looking at the context of the votes, choof's reasoning from switching his vote from CK to DBP was a pure meta-read. Storn posted this quote at the same minute choof swapped votes, so I wonder if these posts came out at the same time and this was a "pls get on this wagon"

Originally Posted by storn42

i still feel that dbp is a better lynch than CK

[Vendetta21]

And what was the primary alternative that was being pushed over DBP? It was CK. Storn, choof, and plop all went for CK at some point. It would have taken two additional votes to kill CK. So either both the votes on CK were wolves (indicates plop) or there was no way to get more than 3 votes on CK because a wolf was stuck on DBP for credibility reasons.

[roundbox]

Would you consider those two storn quotes as a situation where he was stuck on DBP and couldn't move because it would implicate him? The more I look into it, the more I'm convincing myself storn is scummy.

[Vendetta21]

The ability to kill CK WAS THERE. Storn was willing to switch. Choof had gone hard on CK. Unless there was some sort of triage issue that needed to be mitigated it's a fucking wonder how CK lived.

[Vendetta21]

Originally Posted by roundbox

Would you consider those two storn quotes as a situation where he was stuck on DBP and couldn't move because it would implicate him? The more I look into it, the more I'm convincing myself storn is scummy.

Yes. I think he responded to my grilling well enough that I wanted to focus on plop. What made plop special in this shakedown was simply
-fucking nailing it with DBP as takedown wolf
-claiming he would switch to DBP but staying on CK and not showing up at phase end (suggests he was hoping that someone would manouever a swing)
-to a much lesser extent, the charu kill

[storn42]

Originally Posted by Vendetta21

And what was the primary alternative that was being pushed over DBP? It was CK. Storn, choof, and plop all went for CK at some point. It would have taken two additional votes to kill CK. So either both the votes on CK were wolves (indicates plop) or there was no way to get more than 3 votes on CK because a wolf was stuck on DBP for credibility reasons.

i know this is going to sound like im tunneling on this idea but look at this list of players
cold Kitten, Charu, DaBackpac, Lightknight924 (V), reuben_tate
all of them didn't vote. well 2 of them are dead and that leaves dbp and charu dead. whats left is V, ben, and CK. lets assume CK is a VT for this experiment. that leaves V and ben. ben has been read red (lol read red, damn! why cant this be red blaster. "Red has been read red" anywas...) by a few people so for this experiments lets say thats 1 woof down. if V is a woof that is 2, but V has been pretty town right now so i'll let it slide. 2 woof votes unavailible. that means that only two woofs are around to vote. one could be on dbp and one elsewhere, or they could both be on CK.

[roundbox]

I think plop's flip would probably give us more information than a storn flip as well.
unvote from Jub. I want to see this plop situation solved today.