TWG CXXIV: Super Smash Brothers

[TWG Charizard]

A cold wind blows...
Distant thunder shakes the earth...
Dread hangs in the electric air...

[TWG Charizard]

...it's time for a big ass reads post.

[TWG Charizard]

Green

Ike – Solid activity, solid reads, and his suggestions about game mechanics (ie don't talk about seering targets and optimal plays when the wolves are still trying to decide, don't lynch bowser right away) tend to be ones that I agree with. Bowser seering him as green has me a tad iffy, but unless the flips start to paint a different picture I'm good with keeping him here.
Link – Early pocketing on Ike and the big big reads post are WIFOM enough for me to want to put him under neutral, but I'm leaning towards green since he's been consistent with his reads. He stated that he could maybe support a Bowser lynch but that his main choice would be Mega Man or Yoshi, and then when the opportunity for a Bowser or a Mega Man lynch arose and Pit lessened the likelihood of a Yoshi lynch by switching his vote Link went the Mega Man route. If we're looking at voteswappers in the Mega Man wagon, Link is likely in the same boat as Samus.
Peach – A few confusing plays such as claiming gunsmith when it didn't need to be claimed and having no gun to show for it or professing a continued disinterest in the game, but for now I trust both of his claims enough to trust him himself.
Rosalina – Although there's not too much originality in her reads (mostly focusing on the fox/kirby and mega man/bowser dynamics), she's making a decent effort after having been ultra-inactive. I see incentive to be pro-town. My main fault with her (aside from the inactivity) would be when she said she skimmed the entire thread but didn't give too much direct evidence for the conclusions that she arrived at because of her skimming.
Marth – Similar to Rosalina, no glaring faults other than UTR play and not showing up for EOD.
Mega Man – Despite the possibility of super OMGUS on Bowser, his railroading doesn't seem to be without purpose. I like his tone, his confidence, the amount of time it takes him to reply in an active argument, and I like most of the actual points that he's making. This is a bit of a leap, but I could see Mega Man being so gung ho on Bowser as a subversive counterclaim as well.
Villager – I still feel solid enough from the early mindmelds to keep him in here, though the tunnel vision on Bowser and Fox and the self-admitted inactivity as of late is making me concerned.
Yoshi – dfr playing as dfr does. However, if Peach turns out to be a fraud then Yoshi would likely be one as well.
Zelda – When I think of somebody going against the common sentiment of the thread I think of Zelda. She kind of seems to be on her own at times, which for now I'm interpreting as human for having independent thought.

Neutral

Fox – Fox seems like he's having a tough time trying to defend himself and isn't putting too much effort into wolfhunting. Is that because he's overwhelmed with defenses, or because he's not interested in finding wolves? I didn't really think of him too much before Kirby and Villager started pushing but he's somebody who I'm going to pay closer attention to from now on.
Dedede – Dedede doesn't post too often, and when he does it's either a decent point or fluff so it's hard to read him one way or the other. There's also a bit of carry-over suspicions from Pac Man on my part. I'd need more activity to make a solid judgment.
Kirby – More likely to be the wolf out of the Fox/Kirby dynamic I think. In addition to the convenient timing of showing up for the first phase's EOD, Kirby made a couple of posts about being on the fence with Bowser that read to me like somebody trying to stay as neutral as possible:

Originally Posted by TWG Kirby

I'm really on the fence with Bowser right now. He's not someone I'm looking to lynch today, but he's someone I am suspicious of.

Originally Posted by TWG Kirby

I guess I'll move back to Mega Man I don't want to get rid of Bowser just yet and I think Mario is a waste of a lynch right now.

There also hasn't been much development in his reads either. Fox and Ike have been his main concerns and will likely continue to be as well. I'm also not a fan of how aggressive he was in response to a blank vote from Ike:

Originally Posted by TWG Kirby

Not even going to say why eh? Just going to throw out a vote. You've already been wolfy, frankly I think you and Fox are wolves.

The reason I'm putting him as neutral and not red despite of all these reads is because I'm still not sure about Fox and if Fox is a wolf then I'm likely wrong about Kirby.
Little Mac – Similar to Fox, trying to get by while making the bare minimum number of posts and reads to look involved. Not enough for me to go off of one way or the other.
Meta Knight – Null, obviously. I read DK as a wolf for forced tone and UTR lurking, but choosing to be replaced is enough of a pro-town move to move Meta Knight out of the red until there's more to go off of.

Red

Bowser – Without getting into detail about what's already been said, before the claim I had read Bowser as red because of his domineering post count and the way that he was being condescending to others, which I took as a tell that he had a more important role. The cop reveal could explain my earlier read but I'm still suspicious enough of how the claiming stuff went down that I'll keep him here.
Pikachu – My best bet for the godfather, played difficult to read in an effort to force a check and then went cold after it was given to him. Like Bowser, I'd hold off on him until later though.
Pit – Read Bowser as human due to a lack of defense for him when the wagon was beginning to form but he and Link were that defense. Also, he had stated an earlier intent to vote Bowser while putting his vote on Yoshi:

Originally Posted by TWG Pit

Yoshi

hey I'm okay with bowser going down too I just still don't like Yoshi and I feel like I can change my vote later so i'm going to use my vote as a ">=(" kinda thing if you know what I mean

But he abandons those, defending Bowser and moving his previous vote (which put Yoshi into a 3way kitb between him, Bowser, and Mario) onto Mega Man specifically, thus beginning the train. In addition, this post has a weird tone:

Originally Posted by TWG Pit

hey guys I just played ffr for nearly two hours and i'm pooped

but hi

samus is dead

no surprise that she was town in hindsight though. kill makes sense

haven't read through a lot of what was said during night phase too

hi meta knight

Also interesting is that Samus' death was “no surprise” to Pit when this post is the absolute first mention that he's made to Samus the entire game (I could be wrong about this though, point me in the wrong direction if I am please).
Sonic – Ultra UTR except for showing up after the first phase's scheduled EOD and never surfacing again. Likely browsing as a guest and made an error.

[TWG Charizard]

Pit

[TWG Pit]

well I have homework to do so i'm not gonna get to that in a while

but hey yeah not wolf actually kthnx

this is called being a yolohuman and not caring what i look like

[TWG Charizard]

You should care about what you look like if it leads your teammates to read you incorrectly, which is what you say I'm doing.

[TWG Little Mac]

Originally Posted by TWG Zelda

Wait wait wait... you guys would rather lynch the cop than mega man to shut him up? Dumb. Just lynch mega man, he's nothing blue, we'll just lose a green if anything, but he's definitely a wolf. He's gonna be mvp wolf for making town lynch their own cop.

NO MATTER WHAT BOWSER FLIPS, mega man is just going to keep up this Bullshit with someone else. He's officially controlling the game since he's made two people vote someone they don't want to. Shut him up indefinitely please. He's just giving everyone a headache.

There is so much wrong here that I can't let this go by unchecked without responding to it for everyone.

As annoying as everyone is perceiving Mega Man's relentless onslaught against Bowser, that should be NO REASON to simply lynch a green, especially one you BELIEVE TO BE GREEN, what. If you BELIEVE someone is green, redirect your vote somewhere else. Mega Man laid out his life just minutes before the lynch, and it's fairly easy to read that he earnestly believed was not making it through that lynch.

You don't lynch someone to just "shut them up". This is tantamount to the situation where Captain Falcon was lynched and Ike was "not concerned" about the flip because Captain Falcon wasn't being a helpful green anyway.

That can't happen again. A green is another number. The way someone is approaching the game, however rude it may appear, is totally independent of what our best choice of action should be. (Unless you're going to have some sort of trauma from their comments after this game but come on~)

At the present time a lynch of Bowser is far too risky, but I believe the only move that could be worse right now is lynching Mega man simply for being an annoying green. We could actually now take the time to exam the indecisiveness of the voting behavior like we said we could do just yesterday and find a solid lead among those posts. My next current vote is placed with this reasoning in mind, not saltiness against personal attacks to a headache from constant condescending posts.

Of those that appeared to just jump on Mega Man nearing the lynch, Samus is now gone, Peach I trust in the gunsmith claim, Ike is seered green (???), Zelda simply was there and was pushing for the lynch far before the trainwreck of votes appeared. Therefore, of those left, my vote is on Kirby

I don't know if this is the most telling choice other than the already harped upon opinion that a wolf most likely lies between Fox or Kirby. If anything this direction would enlighten us to that a little more than wrecking someone's game who some people still believe is green! I would love to also hear what insights others see around this EoD time.

[TWG Zelda]

Nice speech little Mac, but I think he's a wolf, or else I would of hopped off awhile ago. I know not to lynch someone because they are annoying, trust me. It's just an icing on the cake with mega man.

[TWG Zelda]

Nice reads post Charizard. You bring up good points about pit, and puts him more in my red pile. He was just a slight red because of voting Bowser, but now he's just red.

As for the read on me, that's pretty much spot on. I'm not here to conform, I'm here to win. Sure, it doesn't make it easy, but it'll help tremendously if I die.

[TWG Kirby]

Originally Posted by TWG Little Mac

Of those that appeared to just jump on Mega Man nearing the lynch, Samus is now gone, Peach I trust in the gunsmith claim, Ike is seered green (???), Zelda simply was there and was pushing for the lynch far before the trainwreck of votes appeared. Therefore, of those left, my vote is on Kirby

You do realize I was on Mega Man early last phase right? I had hopped back off him for a bit because I was trying to get Fox talking again. You guys are all basically just letting him slip right under the radar even though he's done wolfy stuff. It seems like everyone is pretty much ignoring these things. I asked Fox several times for reads on people, it's been avoided.
When it comes to the Bowser/Mega Man stuff I really don't know what to make of it right now. I would think if someone was going to fake claim as a wolf that they would have chosen bomb over seer. I'm going to take a guess that the wolves chose who they did because they anticipated a medic protecting bowser during the night. Yes, this could be some plan the wolves came up with, but I don't want to go and lynch someone right away who has claimed a blue role. I think it's funny that Mega Man suddenly got really active and very aggressive after coming close to being lynched. I'm not sure how I feel about that either.
I still don't really like Ike but I guess since we have a green seering as far as we know I'll leave it alone for now.


Also, why are you looking at the wagon on Mega Man and not looking at the one that hopped on Mario last phase? Mario was a bad decision for the town and I'm inclined to think there are wolves on there. It seemed like they were like oh yeah can put a vote on my buddy for now it's not going anywhere, then all of a sudden when it got close there was a panic. You can't tell me that there's not something up with that. It's not like Mega Man claimed a role, just claimed green which is something anyone can do.

[TWG Zelda]

I tried telling you guys this....

[TWG Pit]

Originally Posted by TWG Charizard

You should care about what you look like if it leads your teammates to read you incorrectly, which is what you say I'm doing.

Eh, the way I've been playing ever since my ID's been so kindly outed was just a reversion to my old playing style. I dunno, saying tons of dum things usually prevented my getting lynched before. I guess that now this is an anon game though it's not like I can use meta at all to describe what I've been doing.

sooooo now I have to explain stuff. leggo

Anyway, starting up the train on Mega Man was purely coincidental and I did switch off of it later on, fwiw.

I moved my vote from Bowser, as Vendetta usually says, DADV.
The willingness to lynch Bowser was just too strange to me, and that got me nervous.

What I said about Samus's death was meant to get reactions. Ask yourself, why would I even include that as a wolf? I mean... really?

Did I gain anything from mentioning that? Didn't I pull a similar stunt earlier in the game?

I'm being weird on purpose
what kind of wolf does that

oh

Ps where was Zelda getting independent thoughts again
I mean there's a difference
between going against lynches because it's easy to appear like you're trying that way
and idk actually trying to catch wolves

I don't like her but I don't want to contribute to her wagon atm
let's get rid of deadweight
sonic

alriiiiiiiiight annnnnnnndddddd kbye

[TWG Pit]

i miiiiight actually wanna try out the lynching between kirby and fox thing and see if there's a w/w or v/w thing going on there

it's just that i don't have time to parse through the thread and see which one i'd rather vote off, but i'm leaning toward fox mostly because i don't want to see kirby dead right now idk

[TWG Kirby]

Originally Posted by TWG Pit

i miiiiight actually wanna try out the lynching between kirby and fox thing and see if there's a w/w or v/w thing going on there

it's just that i don't have time to parse through the thread and see which one i'd rather vote off, but i'm leaning toward fox mostly because i don't want to see kirby dead right now idk

I'm pretty certain I know who Fox is by how he reacted to my prodding and he keeps lurking on his main but not posting. Really think we should turn up the pressure there. Just saw him lurking a few minutes ago, he's clearly avoiding making any stance on people.

I'm thinking more about this trio of Ike, Mega and Bowser. I do think it's pretty odd that the wolves wouldn't roleblock Bowser if they thought the medic was on him and kill off Peach, but at the same time if Mega is the wolf then they knew that Bowser not being killed would create suspicion and make him a good lynch target this phase. Mega is pushing super hard to get rid of a possible blue which is odd, but then on that flip side if Bowser flipped blue after a lynch Mega knows he'd be fucked so would a wolf do this?
At this point I think killing any of the 3 is a shot in the dark. Could give us some good information if any of them died though, but I think maybe we need to look into others this phase and see if there's anything that's getting missed because of this whole Bowser deal.

Pit don't be lazy and just vote an inactive, at least make an effort to seek out wolves. If Sonic just flips as a town role what are we going to get out of it. Yes I know leaving inactives can be a risk as well since wolves can hide there but I'm fairly certain we have a least a few active wolves. I mean there are 5 so I'd like to try to get the ones that are probably misleading the town into bad lynches.

[TWG Pit]

I noticed how useless killing off Sonic would be once I sent the post rofl. Intend to change my vote later

[TWG Meta Knight]

Hey guys sorry, I was busy at work, as soon as I got off work I checked posts but the site was down, lets do this.

[TWG Link]

I also apologize for failing to post. When I returned home, my internet incessantly failed to work. And when it finally did, the forum itself had crashed. I'll do my best to put up something during my free time in school.

[TWG Link]

Twenty minutes until my next class, let's catch up.

[TWG Link]

that was meant to be in CAPS whoops

[TWG Pit]

so I did this thing called "get 8 hours of sleep last night" and I realized something...

lmfao what was I saying yesterday

hi link