TWG CXX: Villains United

[TWG The Queen]

fine ill show my work

Originally Posted by TWG Darla

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it looks like people are starting to switch their attention from Hans/Hook to Auto and Gaston. Personally, I'd rather lynch Hans today and use the information from the flip and the night kill to move us forward. Remember people, there are *twenty* players this game, one missed phase (although I'm still fairly confident in this one for a D1 lynch) brings the pool down to 18. There is still plenty of time after today.

a weak push d1 to lynch hans, who we now know was villa. "oh if this lynch is a miss its not that bad!" barffffffff

Originally Posted by TWG Darla

It seems like we've started the day looking at ~2 people out of 18. While I guess it's whatever if one person does it, why does no one else look elsewhere?

Personally, from their interaction this phase, i'm getting villain/villain leans out of Syndrome/Hades. Both seem to be putting in earnest efforts for leads.

I'm with Yzma, though, I would like to hear from and look at Gaston at the moment. What basis did you have for yesterday's random voting patterns? Would you like to follow up on this post at all? I imagine you're caught up by now; who are your current suspicions? Why didn't you vote at EoD at all?

villa lean for hades in d2, and a vote on gaston, whos lookin pretty villa

Originally Posted by TWG Darla

Well this situation sucks. Few people are talking (myself included, sorry), and the hours just keep going. I'm personally against letting this phase go to KitB, because I still think Auto is villain. Cruella's last big push for Hades is something I'm willing to get behind; I like it. It's a lynch I feel confident about, and regardless of the result, the flip will give a good amount of information and data for the thread I think; neither of those things are true for me towards Auto.

Hades

"It's a lynch I feel confident about" talk about read progression!!!!

i think when hades flips hero, u look at the late voters there. darla has looked off from the beginning for me and its only gotten worse. darla has been namedropped as suspicious by a handful of people but has not been voted by anyone aside from me all game iirc = possible distancing from teammates.

there are still 4 heroes alive so if ur top pick hasnt been darla im not saying i think ur wrong, but i do think darla is the best kill right now

[TWG Yzma]

so you think Charles Muntz should shoot Darla, or would you rather save her for the lynch?

I think I'd rather have Auto die by the gun, and then Darla die by lynch. Auto's still suspicious to me, and I think it'd be good to solve this shitty Hades-Hook-Auto love-triangle business. In fact I would rather have that settled during a day phase instead of right before a night phase because I want people to talk about it right after it happens instead of leaving it for discussion 24 hours later.

just my opinion, I would vote for Auto or Darla today

[TWG Syndrome]

Cant really say darla is hero because of hans flip, because he was fishy up until he died. Gaston was also suspicious so that vote doesnt do anything for me either. She did switch to hades late so theres that. I could maybe see her being a hero. Auto is definately moreso, but if charles shoots him, then we have a lot of time to focus a lynch elsewhere.

[TWG Syndrome]

Didnt refresh to see your post yzma oops

[TWG Gantu]

What do you mean 4 heroes alive? 4:1 ratio would mean 16:4 no? And Hades is dead?

[TWG Jafar]

4:1 ratio means one out of every 4 people is a hero.

Going to be out for most of the night. catch yall tomorrow.

[TWG Gantu]

No it means for every 4 villains there is 1 hero

[TWG The Queen]

theres no reason to think about a post-vigi lynch until the first flip happens. i like my read so i would want darla to die first, hence thats where my vote is. but shooting the top wagon is a good policy because it controls the shot. i dont see the shot as a great way to get a read on the shooter, i think its more useful as a means to basically have 2 lynches before the next nightkill

[TWG Gantu]

Well I guess the issue is a confusion between what a ratio is and what the probability of somebody being a hero is.

My bad I suppose, I just read "20 people, 4:1 ratio" as for every 4 there is 1, and not OUT of every 4 there is 1.

[TWG Sid Phillips]

If the lynch is between Auto and Darla, I'll vote Darla.

Originally Posted by TWG Maleficent

sid seems relatively safe but the interaction with hades on d1 seemed forced

Knowing what I know now, it may have been forced on his end, but not on mine.

[TWG Maleficent]

Originally Posted by TWG Gantu

No it means for every 4 villains there is 1 hero

xiz himself has said there were 5 heroes at the start of the game:

Originally Posted by Xiz

4:1 Ratio of Villains to Heros = 5 Heroes for 20 players total.

guess he doesn't know how ratios work

[TWG Auto]

Whoa whoa whoa hang on a sec...Don't I get a say on whether or not I get shot in the face?

[TWG Yzma]

it's 3:1 at start lol

Or 15 to 5

[TWG Darla]

Frankly I don't care what the ratio is, fact of the matter is Xiz said there were 5 wolves/heroes to start, and now we're down to 4.

@Queen

If you read that post where I switched to Hades, it was because I agreed with Cruella's push, not because I just whimsically felt like it.

Gaston vote was early phase. People (one person? I don't remember) wanted Gaston to speak up, I helped because I also wanted to hear what he had to say, specifically to the questions I had written out.

--

I want to know what places me above everyone else, however. If you're suspicious of me, great. But what makes me "The prime lynch target" over other players? We're tunneling down to too few people again out of a larger pool. There's 16(?) of us, and we're looking between me, Auto, and Muntz. I still don't see the need for an Auto lynch personally. Muntz idk about but still leaning more villain to me, this phase should give some good insight into Muntz's role though with the possibility of his gun.

Also, I'm not sure, but I feel like Yzma has been posting a little more than normal after Cruella's death. Cruella was one of the players with more command and activity, and I feel like Yzma is trying to fill that role. I'm worried she's a hero trying to fill the commanding role that Cruella had. Also she seems a little too apologetic. A lot of her recent posts involve her apologizing.

[TWG Maleficent]

i have some concerns about going for auto, but for different reasons than hook

first off, if auto turns up villain, i am positive we gain nothing

second, how the hook-hades-auto shit resolves really depends on who hades would've gone for if he actually got his wish of a choice between hook and auto
obviously hades would want hook dead first if auto is a hero and hook isn't
if hook and auto are both villa, his logic diamond pretty much says he would kill auto first so that hook would be a potential d3 target
what he would do if auto is villa and hook is a hero is a bit tougher to figure out, but i think he'd still go for auto because having a higher hero:villa ratio on d3 would make it easier for the heroes to steer away from the inevitable hook suspicion once auto turned up villa
there's no way auto and hook are both heroes; hook's auto defense brings way too much heat on him if auto dies

unfortunately hades never really suggested which one he would go for first (warning: i only read the posts hook quoted, i am lazy and may be very wrong), since the hook wagon didn't get to take off before cruella's "lynch hades" post
the auto vote obviously doesn't say shit about which way he would go

i'm not too sure about shooting darla either since it's possible to explain her votes by assuming she's a villain who is prone to laziness

[TWG Maleficent]

Originally Posted by TWG Maleficent

there's no way auto and hook are both heroes; hook's auto defense brings way too much heat on him if auto dies

should be "hook's auto defense would bring way too much heat on him if auto flipped hero"

Originally Posted by TWG Maleficent

first off, if auto turns up villain, i am positive we gain nothing

i'm really bad at posting

[TWG The Queen]

hey guys, lame that theres been like no voting, charles are you still gonna pull the trigger? not sure how i feel about it now

[TWG Ursula]

I guess its time I should probably start caring about this game

[TWG Ursula]

Originally Posted by TWG Gantu

Well I guess the issue is a confusion between what a ratio is and what the probability of somebody being a hero is.

My bad I suppose, I just read "20 people, 4:1 ratio" as for every 4 there is 1, and not OUT of every 4 there is 1.

who the hell are you

[TWG Yzma]

I guess I would say pick between Darla and Auto, but I think we need this kill today