TWG CXX: Villains United

[TWG Maleficent]

I was going to respond to that, but then I realized Shan Yu was actually the best lynch target of all the people The Queen listed regardless of who the heroes actually are (besides maybe Ursula). Welp.

[TWG Gaston]

Originally Posted by TWG Maleficent

... Facilier and Gaston. Both of them made votes without any reasoning and made (seemingly) empty promises to study the thread more intently. I say they're definitely potential lynch targets. Let's throw in Hook from the Hook vs. Auto discussion as well: like I said before, I don't think Auto would kill Shan Yu due to the latter tunneling him at first. I think he'd pick a similar target without the same baggage, like Dr. Facilier or, I don't know, Darla.

Study study study

[TWG Yzma]

Originally Posted by TWG Gaston

Study study study

Obvious attempt to save face
Regardless
we're all curious about what you have to say Gaston

[TWG Gaston]

Also, Shan Yu was just a safe night kill. I don't think there's a reason behind it. I think the wolves are simply guessing for power roles since no one has given a trace of having one yet, it's the best they can do. I think looking at his demise during the night is a bit of a waste. I think the focus should be more upon those conversing now. The past few TWG all the Wolves have always been right in plain sight attempting to guide the game in their favor (what they should do tbh if you look at how Manti wolves.)

tldr; one of the wolves is probably one of you who is keeping in the discussion heavily.

That said I saw this and feel the need to address it for your sake.

Originally Posted by TWG Darla

I'm with Yzma, though, I would like to hear from and look at Gaston at the moment. What basis did you have for yesterday's random voting patterns? Would you like to follow up on this post at all? I imagine you're caught up by now; who are your current suspicions? Why didn't you vote at EoD at all?

The pattern was literally just drawing out the UTR players. It was about trying to get a slight reaction of any sort. Those on day one who freak out over a random vote are usually noob wolves, or humans who hate being lynched day one. I was fishing around while drawing out UTR. As to a suspect, I could be really generic and say you know Hook or Auto, but as I said earlier I think our discussion needs to shift off that little lover's quarrel and focus around the posts made by everyone else and see if there's any value in those. If that fails, move on from that.

[TWG Gaston]

And the above post was written before refreshing.

[TWG Yzma]

I agree with both points independently: namely, that noob wolves could be panicked by those votes, and that there is a really vocal wolf among us.

What doesn't sit right with me now is how you presented it: first of all, you are trying to divert attention towards the vocal ones instead of towards the noob wolves you said you were trying to find. This is a 180 from Day 1 to Day 2: which do you think is a priority? Which are you more interested in finding? Your words don't match your actions.

This repeats in your final paragraph. Did anything in particular change your mind about strategy? First you wanted to find the weak wolves. Now you're trying to divert the attention from possible weak wolves and direct it towards vocal wolves?

I'm not trying to enforce a dichotomy here, but if you really believe that there's a vocal wolf here, you should have put some thought into it --- who are your suspects?

[TWG Yzma]

(By "possible weak wolves", I meant Hook and Auto)

[TWG The Queen]

hey guys, i misspelled Ursula earlier im sooooo embarrassed

[TWG The Queen]

way too many ppl hanging onto their votes halfway thru day, voting patterns are fckin crucial can u vote already

[TWG The Queen]

Hades, sheeping here tbh but its important to apply pressure somewhere

[TWG The Queen]

Originally Posted by TWG Hades

I think they are equally suspicious. I am more sure about them than I am about anyone else at this point, but when the best lead is not a sure thing, why not make sure that there is an upside no matter what the outcome?

Do you have the expectation that every decision that you make will be right at the very beginning of Day Two? I am overwhelmingly sure of lynch decisions maybe 15% of the time, and even then, sometimes I end up being wrong.

Does acknowledging this make me a bad TWG player?

naw but using "if hook flips villa then we can clear auto" as the focal point behind ur vote is weak as hell and it looks contrived when those are also suddenly ur top 2 hero reads

[TWG The Queen]

hades might be

a good lynch

[TWG Hades]

And why would I be a good lynch? Because I defend my logic?

[Xiz]

Clayton has been replaced with Hopper.


(Come on guys, I can't handle any more replacements ;_; )

[Xiz]

Vote Count: (10 to insta)



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No Vote:

[TWG Cruella De Vil]

Originally Posted by TWG Hades

I think they are equally suspicious. I am more sure about them than I am about anyone else at this point, but when the best lead is not a sure thing, why not make sure that there is an upside no matter what the outcome?

Do you have the expectation that every decision that you make will be right at the very beginning of Day Two? I am overwhelmingly sure of lynch decisions maybe 15% of the time, and even then, sometimes I end up being wrong.

Does acknowledging this make me a bad TWG player?

So 50% chance at two wolves is worth 1.00 wolves and a 50% chance at one wolf while clearing 1 person otherwise if they are not a wolf (out of what is most likely 16 remaining players) increases our chance of hitting wolf the next day by like 10% at best so it's worth like .66 wolves or something like that. Given your beliefs and your priors auto seems like an almost objectively better choice if you are "hedging your bet." Don't you agree?

[TWG Hopper]

I signed up as a replacement, so I've been trying to keep up with this thread. My Day 1 suspicion was on Auto, because of that vote for Clayton; it felt to me like he was trying too hard to appear active and "contribute". I was going to leave it as just throwing votes around, but after the whole last minute vote on Hans, Auto really doesn't sit well with me.

I'll write more tomorrow. I'm pretty much just letting you guys know that I'm alive. Also, Shere Khan, please post more than just gifs.

[TWG Shere Khan]

[TWG Hades]

Originally Posted by TWG Cruella De Vil

So 50% chance at two wolves is worth 1.00 wolves and a 50% chance at one wolf while clearing 1 person otherwise if they are not a wolf (out of what is most likely 16 remaining players) increases our chance of hitting wolf the next day by like 10% at best so it's worth like .66 wolves or something like that. Given your beliefs and your priors auto seems like an almost objectively better choice if you are "hedging your bet." Don't you agree?

I suppose that I was thinking that clearing someone on Day Two would help in the long run, but I am also 100% on board with a vote on Auto, I said so from the beginning. I don't think you know what hedging your bet means. It doesn't mean going all or nothing, it means making sure that you get something no matter what the outcome is.

[TWG Hades]

Because it seems like neither Hook nor Auto will be on the chopping block today, I will change my vote to Shere Khan until he posts something useful or gets replaced.

I stand by my logic, but it is only useful if we are choosing between Hook and Auto, which doesn't seem to be happening.