10-21-2013, 11:03 PM | #1 |
I am leonid
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Imagine There's A Gamble Where
You can only bet once, and you will bet all your savings, your house, and basically everything that belongs to you, in dollars.
ofc you get disqualified if your net value is negative If you win, you get back double your bet. If you lose, you get nothing. What's the lowest chance of winning that you will accept and play this gamble for, and why? |
10-21-2013, 11:05 PM | #2 |
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Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
100% fuck that shit
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10-21-2013, 11:07 PM | #3 |
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Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
I'm a Las Vegas native.
I know what gambling does to people, leonid. and to have you make light of it just makes me sick.
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10-21-2013, 11:08 PM | #4 |
I am leonid
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Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
I will prolly go for 95% or something
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10-21-2013, 11:09 PM | #5 |
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Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
does this have to do with some new google service you're working on because i don't like where this is going
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10-21-2013, 11:09 PM | #6 |
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Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
new yt feature, double your views or get all your videos deleted
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10-21-2013, 11:09 PM | #7 |
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Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
70%
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10-21-2013, 11:10 PM | #8 |
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Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
t͈̤̤̗̦̘͢h̨̥̺̦̭i̥s̤̪͡ ̛i̶̲s̩̪̙̻̮̭ ̗̜j̸̠̠̯̹ú̘st̜͈̬͟ͅ ͎̟͙̩ṭhe͎̘ͅ ͏͕̖͍̰b̮͉͙̤e̥̙̩̬g̡͙̺͕̬̼͙͔i̶n͔̝̤͠n̩̘͉̲in̦̣͇͈̳g̴̯̪͇͇̗̺
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10-21-2013, 11:10 PM | #9 |
I am leonid
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Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
nope but I do like how people relate to google every single thing I do
it's like i'm a walking google in fact i'm a mere engineer that can be replaced any time |
10-21-2013, 11:11 PM | #10 |
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Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
100%, hands down (pardon the pun). This simply isn't a bet I could take.
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10-21-2013, 11:12 PM | #11 |
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Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
Nope, never.
I've seen roulette wheels spin the same colour 20+ times in a row and a bunch of other bullshit at casinos, fuck probability. |
10-21-2013, 11:18 PM | #12 |
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Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
101%
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10-21-2013, 11:18 PM | #13 |
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Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
It would have to be pretty dang high (in the 90%s, I think). I could recover from losing all my monetary assets, but I really really wouldn't want to have to.
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10-21-2013, 11:19 PM | #14 |
x'); DROP TABLE FFR;--
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Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
Edit: misread the question
I'll say 99.99% If this were one time that is. Iterated version would go higher obv. Last edited by Reincarnate; 10-21-2013 at 11:25 PM.. |
10-21-2013, 11:23 PM | #15 |
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Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
The numbers are kind of arbitrary, but having no wealth would be about 20 times worse than having as much wealth as I have now; having twice as much wealth as I have now would be about 1.5 times better. So no wealth would be a loss of 19, and double wealth would be a gain of .5
.5 * x > 19 * (100-x) where 'x' is the chance of winning approximately 97.4% The % you'd reasonably be willing to accept depends on how much you value the change in wealth to no wealth and wealth to double wealth. |
10-21-2013, 11:33 PM | #16 |
x'); DROP TABLE FFR;--
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Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
It depends on your utility curve and where the different states fall
Shit is cray |
10-21-2013, 11:35 PM | #17 |
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Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
can you explain what you mean in layman's terms
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10-21-2013, 11:38 PM | #18 |
I am leonid
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Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
This game is the kind where you MUST win at any cost.
The question asks about how low a probability can go for you to stay confident that it will happen |
10-21-2013, 11:40 PM | #19 |
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Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
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10-21-2013, 11:41 PM | #20 |
I am leonid
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Re: Imagine There's A Gamble Where
Why do people always overthink my questions
is it because my avatar is a robot |
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