TWG CI: Fiction's Birthday Party

[Vendetta21]

what the fuck are you talking about

[Tps222]

Originally Posted by CrazyJ

There's 4 wolves in this game, three wolves can easily carry the game to the end even if one takes a high risk

Crazyjade

[dAnceguy117]

jayde: mom's target is ambiguous data because mom is both guardian and roleblocker.
also jayde: if I'm a wolf, then the real bodyguard should claim RIGHT NOW and easily lynch the shit out of me instead of trying to die in place of the only other remaining blue.

V: I claimed clown (bodyguard) during day 1.

[dAnceguy117]

TPS please elaborate

[Crazyjayde]

Keep up guys, I'm basically giving you a big entry point.

I know that, dance, but you wanted answers on why, and it's just that I like exploring every avenue. I do not believe the clown is dumb enough.

[Krauthammer]

Oh wait...

When there is no death thanks to MOMMY DEAREST protecting a player, don't we get something like "X PLAYER HAS BEEN ATTACKED BUT SURVIVED" thing?

[Vendetta21]

no the wizard role is intentionally ambiguous, part of what makes it so balanced

but a 50/50 split is pretty good odds nonetheless.

[dAnceguy117]

this wizard only roleblocks a wolf kill if wizard targets the wolf who sent the kill. statistics say it was probably a guard.

[Vendetta21]

Originally Posted by dAnceguy117

this wizard only roleblocks a wolf kill if wizard targets the wolf who sent the kill. statistics say it was probably a guard.

two players targets could potentially stop a kill you block one of them you have a 50% chance the player is human or wolf because you hit one among the two potentials.

[dAnceguy117]

wow V you're right. I butchered that.

STATISTICALLY it's 50/50. in this context a guard seems more reasonable. fiction's mom I guess if you think you blocked a wolf then maybe consider claiming this phase. maybe. I would still lean toward "no" but it's your call.

[Crazyjayde]

Unless you guarded dance and it just confirms what we all know. ._.

[dAnceguy117]

enough blue theory talk, sorry for the distraction, was mostly my fault.

please go back to pointing fingers. thanks!

[Crazyjayde]

TPS, I'm still confused where you're heading with that in mind.

Girlfriend has had an ankle sprain, she's coming here and I'll be taking care of her. After this big incoming post I'll try getting quick bursts of activity until the end.

[Svaz]

Why do you have such mixed feelings about the only two female players in the game, jrodd? Do women make you nervous? Do you just not trust them?

I think for wolves I'd first look at whomever jumped on Fic at the last minute. Similarly, I feel that a <30 min from EOD vote may be TPS' s rationale on Crazyjayde (extenuating circumstances aside). At the same time, Jayde pointed out that Kraut, jrodd and TPS all moved their Manti votes to Fiction, and it might be this that actually triggered the vote (and it might be this particular string of events that links a few of them as a wolf team in people's minds). I still find it really weird that dAnce voted for Fic near the end, but I don't find him wolfy as nobody ever counter claimed.

I get why Manti moved at the last minute (self preservation), but I also don't think that really alleviates him of suspicion. I guess it's also worth assessing who pursued him near the end: mellonxcollie and V. They both seemed somewhat spur of the moment, V switched from his pet suspicion TPS, and I think Rae might have just been going with Fic's opinions.

James' vote right at EoD was impressive but not ultimately sketchy imo as it didn't push someone into the noose.

I guess this is really just a brainstorming post, but I'll try to post in technicolor once I'm back in my room. Is tricky on my phone. (Apologies for any typos or weird words).

[Crazyjayde]

Posting half of the post, it's funny because the rest of the crowd I consider wolf, going to my house and I'll continure from there:


So, while I'd like to wait for a possible mom claim, I'll take the opportunity now since I have free time and try to get as much info I can gather. I have pressing matters to attend this evening and I may not be able to stick around late phase, I want to get things moving now. (it's my actual birthday guys).

I will try not to consider activity, nor former plays of the replacees, nor meta. At this point, it is coming down to the actual content and context of each posts:


Dance: Self-explanatory, his earlier claim coupled with the fact that there was absolutely no counter to his coming out gives him clearance until proved otherwise. The fact that there is in no way evidence of his validity unless his role gets used kind of disappoints me. At least we know now that if someones tries to counterclaim now, there's next to no chance it would be the true role holder. If I'd put that aside, the guy has at first been casting mere suspicions on people at a distance, then proceeded to partake into directing his sheeps. It's not exactly reckless, and it doesn't exactly reeks green, but it sure indicates a high level of confidence. I don't get the usual cautious dance I've seen so much. I get the mentality of "I'm confirmed so I'll try not to interfere too much", I usually like the input you give, but even that post on V was really shallow. (#585) You're basically doing this through the entire game.

JRodd: So much to gather from, guy has been the primary poster for this game. He's been doing his usual adjudicator, clinging on an external position. Which is a good strategy because it has allowed him to play both teams whenever he wants, but you never know if the referee is conniving with the wrongdoers. Thing is there has been a lot of concessions and inputs on everyone which is genuine reaction for a town player. His early reads are tainted with a touch of confusion, and he seem to have acknowledged that fact later (#617). Could wolves possibly use this fact as a way to garner behind his various undecided pushes? Most probable. Jrodd has been pushing lightly, his arguments on the Manti lynch saying he's been active but elusive are telling me that he does not force his reads, also referring to his status as a passive player (#612). Althought he conceded twice he had no strong reason (#617)(#726) for a Fiction vote, I still believe it was somewhat too messy to not be bullshit. I don't specifically express distrust towards him, but all in all Jrodd has been that good kind of neutral while having no reserve with mostly everyone.

Manti: D1 is basically procrastinating coupled with mostly pointing to people irritating him and weak reads. Most arguments for him are unfounded and so his is defense consisting mostly of "if I was I woulds". What I get though, is that the only reason I see Manti act accordingly right now is to not get killed. He was first anticipating Fiction's reaction on his input, basically saying that something gives enough credence about Fiction's status to assure his behaviour. It's either one of the two: Manti knows what Fiction feels incriminating about him, and refuses to step onto the light or Manti knows that Fiction in this context is having tunnel vision and won't change his mind (#587). To me it's desire of self-preservation becoming apparent. The later lynch on Fic is ambiguous in this matter, as there was actual valid reasoning behind the move. (#792) But you know what's telling? The chain of events leading to it. Actually prodding at V for not voting for him, basically soft provoking him (#682) then actually being irritated at V for his vote (#688) and finally having reserve and trying to aim at someone else, knowing that voting Fic will make him look bad (#697). Dying is part of the villagers winning, and if you'd have an unimportant role, I'm sure you'd be willing to, given your inactivity, but you're telling us the contrary. The pool now tells us that there is one more role worth dying for, and it is the Mother, the rest of those would be red. What I get from this situation is that we should push for you, given that you are the mother you would claim, and it is time to claim, if not we'd have one less wolf down the road. Although your current absence of contribution makes me believe you might be a town who is discouraged and has no interest in saving his ass anymore, I've estimated this to be at a 1/5 probability.

Charu: Like V said, we can't expect much from him. Given what he said to me about his play (#152), he conceded that he is not apt of pulling off intricate plays. He is someone of surface. I have basically skipped the entirety of his posts until (#532). I am in accord that his plays are adaptive, but this usually is the case with new players, especially ones that do not know where to hit. Playing it dumb with cluelessness about Manti's vote with such emphasis? (#570) I say the guy gives the most town vibe out of everyone, specifically since he's been reckless on some of the matter wolves can't fake genuinely anyway (highlighting how someone's behavior hasn't triggered any wolf tell is challenging for a wolf to fake, especially a newcomer). If he was wolf, he would be given guidance, he wouldn't be inconsistent about changing directions and sticking to his theories. #579 tells me the difference between perceiving him as a lone wolf or a total green. His vote pattern will say a lot more if we can get a red to cardflip.

Svaz: Totally town. So much concern about the plays, the rationalizations of everyone and mostly being comprehensive of people's mindset. Not a lot of noise and a lot of critical thinking. V's vote was a good one, mostly based on meta and things we can't argue, but that of analytic mindset resonates green vibe around her persona. Would a wolf be able to achieve this amount of authenticity and conscientiousness? I guess only a well experienced one could. #794 talks about Manti's issue with survival, and how wolves could revolve around this event, which is exactly what I'm thinking.

DarManticoreX2 to get discussion going.

[j-rodd123]

hey guys, orange looks good on me don't you think

[j-rodd123]

I want to kill anyone I have in red, no one paid attention to my list not im actually gonna have to show my work siiiiiigh ok

[j-rodd123]

Why DarkManticoreX2 is a wolf, by j-rodd123:

Day 1:

trying to use his lame ass uninterested meta, but you can already tell he is a bit more into the game than normal. I mean he even gives reads at 301 :O, although it was pretty mindless

his only suggestions for a lynch are the two least active posters, interesting day 1 strategy-don't think you usually effectively catch a lot of wolves that way

crying about PP-could be role neutral, it still is a bad look and he looked legit upset about it. claims it would be too dumb for a wolf to do to complain about it in the thread, but who knows, it's dumb and annoying regardless of role.

really lacked presence day 1, people start picking up on him, noticeably fiction who im taking into account a bit.

Day 2

Starts out giving an excuse, a bad one at that, and is sitting on a high horse. At the end of the day, he doesn't even hunt wolves at all and has a convenient self preservation vote on fiction. The people he included in the list of people he doesn't want to lynch are ALL people he hasn't, or barely has, even mentioned. like wtf is that, where is the progression dude?

You are the anti human if you are not a wolf, and maybe you shall hang today :O creepy bulbasaur is very ratchet


Part 2 and 3 for the other reds are still to come

[j-rodd123]

I forgot how unimpressionable manti has been in this game wow

[j-rodd123]

Why Krauthammer is a wolf: Part 2 to part 1, a sequel to the prequel, Now it's personal!!!:

Now this one has just screamed obvious when rereading the thread. Thanks for copying my colour system wolf, I don't even care if you're anti-spewing your teammates and getting them to push you, you will die a red u killllllllllllll my family

Entrance:
mechanic talk, honestly idk why I gave him a human lean initially, this is probably the easiest entrance a wolf can make. Puts a vote on yoshl but can't put his finger on 'why'. Not calling him out for that because we all know what happened with me and voting for fiction. But wait....theres more!!!

Post 530-this post looks set up to me. Idk exactly why but I feel like tps said something like hey go comment on my entrance. Post 607-votes manti, this one is jefioewoijweoij because this either is really good for manti or really bad for manti. Thing it looks bad for them both, he moves away from manti and goes to fiction/TPS showing little progression on either besides "reading the thread"

-->Opinion on manti didn't change, not a lynch target anymore. smelly belly bo belly.

I don't think he actually wants to lynch fiction/TPS/manti, TPS wants to kill fiction, fiction prolly gonna die although kraut hasn't directly commented much on fiction. there is something weird here and I feel kraut is focusing on people hes trying to distance himself from

His suspicion list im going to ignore for now because I have some conspiracy theories I want to investigate further.

Kraut hooooooooooooooooooooowwwwwwwwwlllllllllllllllllll