TWG XCV: Nobody messes with the frog, see

[j-rodd123]

while im reviewing cuz i had a bunch of lab stuff to do and had to stop mid-analysis last night, can someone write out the possibilities of game structure based on claims.

[j-rodd123]

also yea this bandwagon was sketch. i'm not clearing any suspicion on yoman but idk felt awkward. i'm curious about V's seer choices too, seems he likes to say stuff like partially incriminating himself when he's not town

[AC1speakerbox]

Originally Posted by Vendetta21

cedolad

he said nothing about danceguy, who in turn said nothing about him all of day one. he was the number one hit on my wolfdar starting from his first posts in the thread.

he claimed vigi immediately after that exact role was being discussed heavily. there was brief discussion of having him confirm somehow, which as soon as the topic was dropped he stopped caring about that.

he didn't vigi anyone last night and has contributed absolutely fucking nothing to the game except a couple bad votes.

also i am a seer











because there could be anywhere between 0-3 seers you really can't accept what i say on face value and must instead question the nature of my role claim in the context where it arose, and the behaviors following it.

I was actually thinking it was really weird that you had relaxed your playing style so much since that time. Welcome back.

In any case, I am still of the belief that if you're going the non-contributory player lynch route, there are better candidates. He's almost definitely not SK because coming out as vigi and then killing an obvious human is about the dumbest thing SK can do.

[j-rodd123]

breaking up thoughts as i go. it's kind of weird cedo kept his vote on me at the end of the phase instead of joining a wagon. why did you do this cedo? thinning votes like that is a pet peeve of mine

[j-rodd123]

Originally Posted by yo man im awesome

Oh my lol, this is like a carbon copy of day 1 so far.

I'm curious, why do you guys think that because Danceguy was a wolf, him calling human on somebody immediately makes them a wolf? In the ~3 games i've played of TWG before this, including the one I actually played as the Master Wolf, I saw in the post game that wolves were calling humans human, but were calling out their own teammates in order to separate themselves from the other wolves. Sure, you could argue I could be distancing myself from possible allies, but there are only so many defenses that can be made when put under sudden and constant pressure.

Since Freaky so kindly asked, and since I was going to make a post for this anyway, I'm placing my vote on J-Rodd since I want to hear what he thinks of this bandwagon before I watch myself get lynched for radical suspicions, and considering I've seen him watching the thread (not at this moment, but over the course of this current day phase), like me, and yet still no posts from him. Do you find me more towny or wolfy, J-Rodd?

Honestly I think some of you people think too hard when you play, lol. I really don't find this to be the kind of game that requires such a huge in-depth psychoanalysis of the players.

people think you because of your actions day 1. jayde, a confirmed human now who made an excellent analysis post, labelled you as wolfy. your best defense was from V who made that vote chart which suggested voting you was 'safe'. now cool you want to hear from me and i will share my thoughts, but why don't you say who you think is wolfy? what are you waiting for?

i had a wolf in you and freaky, and when my suspicion diminished in freaky it grew very fast in you. you haven't done much screaming town to me, so you are still on the bottom half of the list for me. other people residing there are zoshi, tps, viccica.

viccica did defend danceguy, but she did it when he was one vote away from a lynch. seems like a dumb move if you were associated with that player, so that relieves some suspicion on her. however it also could have been a light defense since it was a logical point, and if it didn't work then would be easy to back up.

[Vendetta21]

jesus christ why would anyone believe im the seer given the context i revealed in

we are looking at these set-ups as potential enemies:
TTTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker
TTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
TT = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather
T = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
0 Ts = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather

we have two kills last night indicating a serial killer or a vigilante-type role on top of the first supposed "vigilante." the chances of having two vigilantes (given each roll of a vigilante has a 9% chance) is slim, and the chance of having a full vigilante and a one-shot vigi wasting it on night 1 is even slimmer. we have a 50% chance to have a serial killer so go reads bayes theorem and whack off to it for about five minutes and then come back and assume we probably have a serial killer given the two deaths (and also the death choices, too)

so we are looking at one of these set-ups:
TTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
T = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)

putting the human configuration at one of the following if we assume cedolad is a vigilante which is VV:
VVD( )TTT
VVD( )( )( )T

[j-rodd123]

no one believed you which is why we wanted to hear your seer choices, how don't you get that?

[j-rodd123]

Originally Posted by Vendetta21

VVD( )( )( )T

if cedo is vig, my role means it has to be this

[AC1speakerbox]

Jesus Christ you had all better be lying about your roles

[Vendetta21]

Originally Posted by j-rodd123

no one believed you which is why we wanted to hear your seer choices, how don't you get that?

because you didn't italicize your sarcasm

[j-rodd123]

Originally Posted by AC1speakerbox

Jesus Christ you had all better be lying about your roles

false. it is pinpointing the town pool which in turn polarizes the wolf pool. with the mafia roleblocker dead, you can no longer fake such a role if there is one. my role only exists based on another role, so all this information clears town members and isolates liars.

[j-rodd123]

i don't like italics

[yo man im awesome]

So, what, now it's suddenly a good thing to proclaim roles? In my first human game, I was critized heavily for coming out as whatever the hell my role was that game.

Also, cedolad

[j-rodd123]

no one said to claim

[yo man im awesome]

Originally Posted by j-rodd123

no one said to claim

That's what I was thinking. That post you made quoting AC1 had me confused for a second.

[Vendetta21]

Originally Posted by j-rodd123

if cedo is vig, my role means it has to be this

which would necessitate the last role being a one-shot V and having already fired on a human seeming person on night 1

or in other words we're at like 99% certainty of serial killer

[j-rodd123]

now if there is the following role present: mason, 1 shot roleblocker, or 1 shot doctor, then cedo was lying

[AC1speakerbox]

Yoman, I swear, you're like fucking Phoebe

At my old school, we never used to use theorems...

[j-rodd123]

and if he was a town claiming vig then he is just fucking up any sort of mechanic analysis. anyways back to reviewing posts let's doooooooooo this

[j-rodd123]

Originally Posted by j-rodd123

now if there is the following role present: mason, 1 shot roleblocker, or 1 shot doctor, then cedo was lying

and if no one claims one of these roles, then i suggest lynching elsewhere than cedo